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The_MonkeyKing

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Everything posted by The_MonkeyKing

  1. Russia claiming an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Ukraine claiming the opposite I see this as a real possibility. Russia can cause a limited and/or slow-moving accident with enough uncertainty about the cause to give them cover This would again be one more huge expensive disaster for post-war Ukraine to deal with. For reference, the Three Mile Island cleanup is forecasted to cost 1.5 billion. That was just one reactor that didn't breach containment. Then Russia would play to get an international intervention that would save the situation. This would require a local ceasefire with the current lines. This would not necessarily work out but still worth hoping for.
  2. This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this. This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here... "The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive." "Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive." "We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."
  3. I would replace the word "expensive" with the word "valuable". And that value comes from scarcity. It is not that expensive when we compare it to other war materials: 155mm round currently costs around 10 000e. According to Esa Rautalinko, CEO of Patria, the largest Finnish arms manufacturer. In an interview about a month ago. Storm Shadow missile cost from one million to three million depending on the time, contract, and source. Is one Storm Shadow worth 100-300 pieces of 155mm rounds? I would say it is.
  4. Sure there are some duplicates and I saw a couple of clear misses. Also maybe even most are past mine kills that are being totaled with the ka-52. Still, the volume says a lot. One month of action rivals the kills of TB-2 for the whole duration of the whole war: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/defending-ukraine-listing-russian-army.html or the kills of ZALA Lancet https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/11/hit-or-miss-russian-loitering-munition.html with one confirmed ka-52 kill from the Ukrainians. And that was on the ground.
  5. Russia can create powerful concentrations of anti-air and electronic warfare capabilities. I am sure the helo bases are some of the strongest AA concentrations there are. Making it unfeasible or not worth it for the Ukrainians to hit them with their few long-range precision assets. Also, KA-52 has the range to operate from internationally recognized Russia, given the restrictions imposed on Ukrainian weapons use they would become practically untouchable. So if they would feel threatened they would just start operating from Russia like most of the air force is already doing
  6. Good point. I know that the US has only a few hundred in service and those are equipped with the "unitary warhead". Those "old" stored cluster ATACMS would be the thing Ukraine needs.
  7. Europe contains multiple thousands of Strom Shadows with no other meaning for existence than fighting Russia. I believe the US has less than 1000 ATACMS and they have lots of "prior commitments" with the US being global military power and all.
  8. https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ma03g/ukrainian_strela10_of_the_93rd_brigade_shoots/ A pretty darn clear view of Strela-10 shooting down drones. I am not 100% certain this isn't part CGI Is it possible CM got this wrong? It seems these short-range missile AA systems can shoot down pretty darn small drones.
  9. That is something I, or anybody can do with a couple of $ 20-a-month subscriptions and a couple of hours of time. Just think what professionals with a budget can do. And indeed are doing.
  10. The Wagner Mutiny’s Impact on the War in Ukraine.mp3
  11. Dreadful video of a Ukrainian Bradley unit being stuck in a minefield. Lots of lost vehicles and legs. ssstwitter.com_1687807949764.mp4 No idea what time this is from. source: https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1673403477706285064
  12. This was clear from the start. Wagner doesn't have the supporting arms or logistics to do anything alone. It has been integrated into army units from beginning to end. The fact that Rostov and Voronezh "fell" without a fight with their military HQs and bases clearly shows the military is in on it. No, any sort of "neutrality" from the military would not have been enough. The "attacks" on Wagner might have been just false-flag operations from the rebel forces to begin this. The forced integration of PMCs into MoD might have been a defensive move from the MoD. Wagner very well might just be the face of the operation. I see this as a full planned rebellion of the military fighting the war in Ukraine.
  13. I think the rock/paper/scissors logic of defense and offense methods is a factor; Now Russia has been preparing to counter Ukrainian "Blitzkrieg" with big reserves and in-depth defense. Ukraine on the other hand is now advantaged by attacking this defense with limited attrition/gains-type attacks (Ukraine gets to engage the defenders piecemeal and local superiority) I am sure if and when Russia transitions to forward defense Ukraine transitions to something more like "Blitzkrieg". In the winter Russia was attacking Ukrainian forward defense piecemeal with "attrition"/"limited gains". Bad matchup for the Russians. illustrative matrix of how this rock/paper/scissors logic: image source: https://youtu.be/7dWf4ueZ9qU
  14. That clears it up. Strange that they choose to call it an "error". The US is moving from the most strict way of counting the amount to the loosest. From replacement capacity cost to the equipment's value on the accounting books.
  15. I would think Congress might care when the budgets they approve starts living their own life by tens of billions
  16. What the is going on here? There are many ways to count the aid value sums. Write-off value on the accounting books, what it cost when it was new, or the cost to replace the given capability. Now the US is changing how it calculates the value. At the start did the US want to exaggerate the aid given for some reason and now thanks to US internal politics they hope to avoid going to legislative to increase the total aid budget? So they start counting in the most "cheap" way. In my country, it would be a very big thing when tens of billions of money's appear or disappear from anything government related.
  17. Seems like the same assault wr saw couple weeks ago. The one with the pile of Bradleys
  18. "Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023." source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20
  19. Agreed, but still no evidence so cannot say one way or the other
  20. Zero evidence of even one KA-52 going down during these recent southern operations.
  21. I would guess it is not worth it to hit those helicopters with the current munitions available. Those helicopter bases must be anti-air hardpoints and the helos are dispersed(in the satellites) 100m apart so it would be 1 storm shadow = one destroyed helo + what it takes to penetrate AA. The target lists must have lots of higher priority targets for these low-availability high-demand deep strike assets. Now GLSDB that would be nice. But still, the copter will just move 50km further back when these arrive to the theater.
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