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The_MonkeyKing

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Everything posted by The_MonkeyKing

  1. Featured analysts on "War and the Rocks" see significant development in Russian tactics in the recent Avdiivka offensive. Not significant improvement enough to turn an offensive that might have been doomed to fail no matter the people behind it into victory. They see that the coordination and implementation of forces was a significant step up from anything we have seen for a long while from the Russians. If the trend continues and Russians keep being able to learn and raise the quality of their force it will have an impact next year.
  2. Yeah, I agree. There is the possibility of this being some Russian last attempt to try to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, by gaining the initiative or at least moving the fight to Adviivka from the south. But I am doubtful, more likely this is not "last attempt" but just "an attempt"
  3. similar worry about this on the "War on the Rocks" Some pointers from the episode: Russian attack on Avdiivka is worrying. Russia has learned. The use of combined arms was on a completely different level than last year (artillery, air force, mechanized forces) and the scale was increased from companies to battalions. Even when it was a failure it was still a big improvement, as we have seen with Ukraine these types of operations are extremely hard to conduct even from competent and motivated forces. If this trend continues, there is cause for concern. Avdiivka shows that Russia feels it is in a strong position, at least proves that Russia is not on the ropes. Avdiivka risks becoming a new winter Bakhmut, i.e. a grinding, consuming battle. The culmination of Ukraine's offensive phase is around the corner. We will probably see the "last show" of this offensive within weeks. The likely goal is a breakthrough that would threaten Tokmak. The goals of the UKR offensives were not achieved. The political leadership announced the goals publicly at the beginning (minimum goal Tokmak, Bakhmut and Melitopol as maximalist obj.). Ukraine gets high marks for a good exchange ratio over the summer operation, especially taking into account the environment. Still, the substantial Russian losses seem to be sustainable for them. Now the eyes are on next year. Russia is going to have to conduct another major mobilization if it wants to "keep up the phase". Russian ammunition sources should not be underestimated. Iran, North Korea, etc. Russia has invested significantly in the war economy of these countries and its own. (note that this Ukrainian summer offensive was also carried out with E-Korean stocks) A significant challenge vs. Western production capacity. Next year, it will be challenging for the West to continue the same level of support as this summer, to enable Ukraine to keep the initiative. The political situation in the United States really becoming worrying. At the political level, complacency has spread in Europe and the United States that Russia is losing and cannot continue the war. The situation is the opposite, the West now has to make expensive decisions for a long war. Russia has resources and resilience as we have seen this year.
  4. Another successful ATACMS strike, this time on a Luhansk airfield Too bad we are seeing these strikes only now at the end of the Ukrainian offensive season. Probably these will be a big help for the awaited "last push" of the current southern campaign before culmination and mud season.
  5. Thread recommended by Michael Kofman: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1714715790153248909.html Even though the first attacks were repelled, Russia will likely attack in this direction again in the future. There aren't many similar targets elsewhere. Progress will probably be slow, naturally depending on how much resources Russia will direct into capturing Avdiivka. 9/ In Bakhmut, Russians eventually switched from active flanking efforts into capturing the city block by block. If the Russians are fixated on capturing Avdiivka, there can be a long and difficult battle ahead, as Ukrainians are likely just as determined to hold it. 10/ In the long run, Ukraine may need to solve the encirclement threat with a counterattack. Especially the northern direction can develop into a real issue. Russians don’t need to advance far in order to make the situation more complicated for AFU. The distances are short. 11/ There are some worrying features, even though Ukraine managed to repel Russians for now. Russia proved two things. It tried to take the initiative in a relatively fresh direction. Secondly, it still has reserves to do it, even though many have claimed the opposite. 12/ Even though it seems Russians have learned some lessions from previous offensives, for example from Vuhledar, the tactical outcome of the offensive in Avdiivka was still a failure. This, however, indicates that Russia aims to actively learn and adapt. 13/
  6. current frontline with thick blue and frontline from 31.8 with thin blue
  7. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67138269 https://yle.fi/a/74-20055713
  8. story develops https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.
  9. https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483 By early information, likely an attack on Estonia-Finland gas pipeline yesterday. Mainly problem for Estonia. Finlands and Estonia's shared LNG-terminal is situated in Finland and this pipe is used for transfers to Estonia.
  10. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-public-support-for-providing-arms-to-ukraine-declines/ Reuters: US public support for providing arms to Ukraine declines The two-day poll, which concluded on Oct. 4, revealed that only 41% of respondents agreed with the statement that Washington "should provide weapons to Ukraine," while 35% disagreed, and the remainder were uncertain. for reference War in Afghanistan support over time: https://genzmilitary.com/2019/06/19/the-afghanistan-war-over-time/
  11. Yeah, now the first "magic word" has been achieved, that being breakthrough. The word has been in the news for the whole summer prematurely. Now "Breakout" might not even be something Ukraine is going to try. If they see it as too risky and choose to keep endlessly pushing the Russians back as they have seen best so far.
  12. Also remember these are not designed to be shot in single shells sniping but as a barrages.
  13. Germans are working on a deal where Greece sends 100 of their Leopard 1 to Ukraine and Germany buys and refurbishes these 100 ex-Italian Leopard 1 for Greece in return. win-win? or something like that...
  14. daily loss data from the summer in RU artillery: source https://ukr.warspotting.net/analytics/daily/russia/8/
  15. M26 for MLRS/HIMARS when? I cannot see any reason not to, now that 155mm DPICM and depleted uranium APFSDS-T are already being sent... I guess it is just only a matter of time and critical need. newest number I found was from 2006 https://www.hrw.org/news/2006/08/18/cluster-munition-questions-and-answers-m26-rocket#:~:text=The U.S. stockpiles 369%2C576 M26 rockets in its active inventory.
  16. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-authorizes-production-of-100-howitzers-for-ukraine/ Do we have any update on this? Any timelines? I have not heard anything for a year on this
  17. thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1696564228331655559.html Good points with proof and examples of how we have observer bias on these fortifications dug in the open.
  18. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1696838128529502456.html That was faster than expected
  19. There are ways if there is will. Example that lend lease act that was passed for Ukraine. I am sure there are also many many other more "creative" ways like black budgets.
  20. Here is the most interesting map imo: And threadreader: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695879651158052910.html
  21. And here is Ukrainan officer response: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695867428247396359.html And dufman:
  22. Here interestingly US seems to have been thinking of reaching azov sea as a possibility.
  23. Much needed clarification on the different "defense lines": https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695463241235734632.html Some pickings:
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