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gnarly

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by gnarly

    Apologies if posted previously, recorded 27 June, but an interesting listen. Seems a solid overview of the war to date

     

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a-turning-point-in-ukraine/id1629454648?i=1000568268889

     

    Quote

    Dr Jack Watling talks to Peter as he returns from his most recent trip to Ukraine. As both Ukrainian and Russian forces reorganise for the next phase, the conflict is poised at a critical moment: one dependent on stockpiles, logistics, resupply, people, leadership and styles of fighting. Whilst Jack brings his latest insights to the listeners, he and Peter have a discussion over the information war and debunk some of the myths and fallacies around the public face of the war. Jack also highlights some of the lessons emerging from the conflict that are likely to endure and apply across other wars. Sobering stuff.

     

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Popped up in one of my feeds: 

     

    Quote

    According to a video published by the Russian Ministry of Defense on June 21, 2022, Russian army artillery units use Zala UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) to carry out reconnaissance missions and increase the accuracy of fire. In the video, the Zala drone enables Russian artillery to spot Ukrainian army M777 155mm howitzers battery and then destroy them with pinpoint accuracy.

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by gnarly

    1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

    Yes, that statement is getting a *lot* of press scrutiny right now.  Is it KIA, WIA, what?

    1 hour ago, dan/california said:

    It is KIA sadly, with several hundred wounded, I can't get the whole tweet to display correctly. Even with the difference in the way the two sides are fighting though it points out how staggering the Russian wounded numbers must be. The very credible Ukr estimate of Russian KIA is NEVER less than 150. SO their wounded numbers could exceed A THOUSAND on some days, maybe most days. Attacking is harder than defending, especially the way the Russians do it.

      

     

    I can't embed either, but further:

    Quote

    “We’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day killed in action and around 500 people wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters,” Zelensky said..

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by gnarly

    2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

    UAV group of ArmySOS volunteer fund during the battle on Siverskyi Donets . This fund is engaging in development, setup and support of Kropyva information battlefield system.

    На зображенні може бути: 2 людини та військова форма

    Strangely they are observing/viewing the same thing Steve showed.... ;D

      

    4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    The picture I just posted is properly orientated with north at the top.  West side of the river is Russian territory, east is Ukrainian.  The majority of the destroyed vehicles are on the eastern side.  At least some of the destroyed vehicles on the western (approach) road appear to be engineering vehicles related to the bridging itself.

    It seems the 8 T-72s that were deliberately sunk were the last of the rearguard force.  Here's an image that puts it all into context.  You can see the bridge and smoke.  This appears to be after the second bridge was put down but before it was sunk.

    Steve

    FSjXArTWUAAkd0R.jpg

     

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Hapless said:

    Zooming down from 30k feet to about ten feet: apparently CCTV footage of the attack on the Transnistrian Ministry of State Security building (or whatever it's called).

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/uddy8q/the_footage_of_the_shelling_of_the_building_of/

    Doesn't exactly look professional: maybe it's not supposed to, maybe whoever it is is just crap.

    I for one can't help but hear Benny Hill music when I watch the first guy trying to dodge the other two backblasts... and failing.

     

    I swear shooter #3 walked right into the sight-picture of shooter #2...?

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

     

    This second video is of a young Spetsnaz guy from the same brigade and his story is similarly pathetic.  In his case he had only been in the Russian Army for 3 months, which is just about what it takes to be assigned to a unit.  

     

     

    And here I was thinking Spetnaz was Special Forces / SOF?? How could someone 3 months in the Russian Army be Spetznaz?  I was equating Spetznaz to the Rangers, or similar, but obviously not.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    Group of Russian troops of 138th motor-rifle brigade (Kamenka town, Leningrad oblast, Western military district) tried to dig-in in the tree-plant and hold the ground, but something went wrong.... 3 MTLB, 1 T-72B3 and Metis (or Metis-M) ATGM. Several graphic cadres.

      

     

    @Haiduk does the commentary indicate what/how eliminated them?

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    True, but the Russians have been obviously giving the Ukrainians the best propaganda they could ask for, and more, served on a golden platter.

    That drone video of the hit on the helicopter shows us, again, that the Russians are horrible planners.  It is obvious that the Ukrainians knew exactly where they could expect a helicopter and set up both the drone and the AA missile team to capture this video.  For that to happen the Russians must be reusing the exact same flight paths over and over again.

    This gets into the larger discussion as to why the Russian airforce is performing so abysmally in this war.  One of the major points made is that they have very little experience, training, and equipment to do what is called "deconflicting" the airspace.  This is the ability to make sure your aircraft don't smash or shoot each other by carefully managing how the aircraft move.  As with just about everything we've seen so far, the Russians only have a very crude and inflexible capability.  In this case it appears they have established very tight corridors and do not change them because doing anything else is beyond their capabilities.

    NATO, on the other hand, has no such problems in their ops.

    Steve

    No idea of the robustness/valiidity of this source, but it popped up in my feed:

     

    https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations

     

     

    1

    Russia massing forces April 2021

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

    I'm surprised I haven't seen anything on the forum about this.  Russia says it's just for exercises while at the same time saying it has right to intervene within Ukraine to protect ethnic Russians from persecution.  There's tons of videos showing armor being brought in on trains, supplies being moved up.  Oh my.  Meanwhile, Ukraine asking for more military support ASAP from US et al.

     

     

     

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