db_zero
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Posts posted by db_zero
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40 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
That's what I was wondering.....
We live in the age where you can manage vast distributed computer networks remotely.
These weapon systems are controlled by computers and software and it’s no secret that weapon systems are linked to surveillance assets via secured datalinks.
Just do a search on AWACS, TR1 JSTARS and side looking synthetic aperture radar and decide for yourself.
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44 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
how does one set targets for these? Drone? Satellite? AWACS? Once UKR gets over these horizon anti-ship missiles it's gonna be fun fun fun fun
I’ve heard estimates that Patriot batteries would entail a 9-12 month training package to learn how to operate and maintain them. This is probably in a similar time range.
This would need some sort of targeting input as well as the links to feed it…
I have to wonder if it’s possible to get targeting data from a NATO aircraft hundreds of miles away feed it to the missile battery and when ready the Ukrainians manning the batteries push the fire button…
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From what I can tell it sounds like the T-90 was largely sent to Siberia and few in the Western region so it would make sense few have been seen so far.
A report that a call went out for older reservists to volunteer to go to Siberia, along with the call up of 60,000 reserves means they could be headed not to Ukraine but to Siberia.
The active Siberian troops along with their T-90s could then be sent to Ukraine. Since China and Russia are on good terms it would be a small risk to send regular Siberian troops already on active duty West.
Going to take a while to rail them West.
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While everyone is debating whether tanks are dead, the Ukrainians who started the question are asking the west for as many as they can send.
If they had the time to learn and absorb M1s they would gladly take and use them.
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7 minutes ago, MikeyD said:
The drawback of chemical weapons is Russian artillery and weapons stockpiles keep getting whacked by Ukraine, which means the likelihood is high that you'll inadvertently poison your own side when your poison gas stockpile gets whacked. Especially if Ukraine gets wind of (pun intended) what's happening beforehand.
That is true but depending on the agent it could be binary-meaning its inert until ready for actual use- I don't know if Russia uses binaries.
It could also be delivered on long range missiles from deep inside Russia.
In any case when has Russia cared about its troops? If a few dies from unfortunate events who cares?
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2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
I'm not saying NBC has no military applications, just that in this environment they are pretty limited.
Politically, they create severe blowback, likely up to and including a de facto Western intervention just short of WW3. To protect the children, etc. Plenty of precedent for that: Korean War, Vietnam War, Egypt 1973....
Agreed on your other points. RA readiness to wage this kind of warfare is.... questionable. When were the filters on all those BMPs last tested lol?
Russia and Syria have used gas recently in Syria in cities on civilians. Its can't be 100% discounted. As I mentioned Putin just doesn't care. While the recent screw ups and incompetence of the Russian army is legendary, they aren't that stupid to not learn from their recent mistakes.
As the saying goes past performance is no indication of future performance. You can bet those survivors of the recent fiasco have learned lessons the hard way and its prudent to expect them to apply some if not all of the lessons learned.
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Gas could be in the form of incapacitating or sleep agents.
During the battle of Hue city Viet-Nam the US used tear gas extensively in the urban fighting. The VC didn't have gas masks. I guess it was not a violation of the Laws of War at the time. Don't know what the current laws of war view the use of non-lethal agents on the battlefield.
I doubt the Russians will use chemical weapons, but its already been reported the US has sent detectors that give warning. I would think that if the Russians were serious about using chemical weapons some preparation and great care would be needed to handle the munitions and it would be detected.
Looking back at reference material there are a number of agents the Russian use and their effect and duration can vary. Weather plays a role too.
Gas was used in Syria recently. Maybe the Syrian volunteers have past experience operating in the space.
While I doubt the Russians will use gas Putin is the sort of person who just doesn't care.
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I just watched a news report that openly said Ukrainian soldiers are now in the US training on use of Switchblade drones. I was shocked as I would think you would keep this low key.
Now that raises question of what else they are being trained to use.
I guess congressional action reviving the Lend Lease Act of WW2 has opened the floodgates to Ukraine.
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1 hour ago, Erwin said:
That's it in a nutshell. The only victory is his own survival, but the land bridge from Crimea to Russia would be invaluable. No matter what else happens, if Putin survives all this, that will be domestically spun into a Russian victory.
The big danger is that our own weak leaders (and burned out populations fed up with inflation, rising interest rates etc.) will tire after some more weeks/months of this Ukrainian war TV show and start to force/persuade Ukraine to make some sort of peace which of course will be phony.
It is obvious that the current western strategy is not to defeat Russia, but merely bleed it at the cost of Ukrainian lives. The primary audience is China - to (hopefully) frighten China into quiescence for a few more years (until the current western administrations are gone), and then it will be someone else's problem.
I’ve heard a few geopolitical wonks say this-the best strategy is to bleed out Russia in Ukraine. I think Zelinsky knows this and obliquely says this but can’t be too blunt cause he doesn’t want to bite the hand that feeds him.
The danger of American fatigue is very real. There are a lot of unfilled wants domestically and to see billions siphoned off overseas is going to cause great stress. Add that to increased defense spending and rising interest rates will cause interest on existing debt to increase.
I think the idea of a Marshal plan for Ukraine is wishful thinking. The tax rate to pay off WW2 and Marshal Plan was over 90% for the top bracket and there is already a huge fight brewing over proposed changes to taxes with the predictions it will lead to current party in power getting shellacked in November.
Food shortages in the third world is going to cause great unrest and higher food prices in the developed world. We already have high gas prices.
Next up is lumber and concrete. Already home builders in the US have problems getting basic materials.
When Ukraine starts rebuilding they’re going to consume an enormous amount of lumber, concrete, steel and copper just to name a few.
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Video from “Russia and Russian Military” expert on Russian performance. He states Russia can no longer achieve its political war goals, best they can do is achieve military goals…
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What the highly acclaimed movie “As If I Am Not There” based on true stories if you want to see the uglier side of war.
As much as I’m fascinated by the social media war and videos I ask myself if I’m watching a form of snuff films…
It already being discussed how social media and the fascination with people dying seems to be a popular topic.
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41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Russia is done. They lost this war, they can not continue on indefinitely. There are no facts in support of that premise.
I'll also remind you that I am not one of the people that called this war incorrectly. In predicted Russia would lose this war years before they started it. On the first day of the war I saw all I needed to to know I had made the correct call, but waited to make that call "final" on the 5th day. This was when talking heads kept saying that Russia was just getting started. A week later I made the call that Putin's government wouldn't survive this war. I have consistently refuted all the experts who used terms like "operational pause" and "strategic reset" and "stalemate" as not knowing what they are talking about.
I am not saying I am totally right about everything, but so far my track record is vastly better than all but a few experts out there. Therefore, I am comfortable with maintaining my position that Ukraine is the one that decides how this ends, not Russia.
Supposedly based on Western intel. And so far they have been calling things correctly. It also makes sense from Putin's regime standpoint. The VE day parade is a big deal for it.
Anybody saying this should get crossed off your list as a reliable source. They are as clueless as the ex-Generals saying that Russia was going to win the war in a matter of days or months.
Russia is not geared for anything. That's their whole problem.
Stoicism doesn't produce weaponry or 100,000 trained soldiers in time for them to matter.
Steve
You’ve basically been correct and consistent.
I’m more cautious and questioning. Too many times in life I’ve been right and on a roll and doubled down with all the indicators pointing to continued success, only to have it blow up in my face so I’ll always try to look for some flaws in reasoning and why things will not go the way I planned for or expected.
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7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I'll modify your point with a modification... Mass can be defeated with Massed Precision
The Russians will likely through thousands of soldiers and almost as many vehicles into this battle. Picking off 10% of them won't be enough to hasten the end of the war even if it does manage to stall out the offensive. Ukraine needs to be in a position to kill 20-50% and to do it in a very short period of time. That is not going to come from the sort of pin-prick strikes we've seen up until now.
When a Russian column is seen heading down a road Ukraine needs to have the capacity to wipe it out completely. Every single last vehicle and soldier in it. And Ukraine needs to be able to do that for every convoy every time one is spotted. Consistently.
Fortunately, I think Russia is going to present Ukraine with a very dense, target rich environment. Shooting a school of fish in the barrel with a 9mm pistol isn't what you want to bring to a situation like this.
This is the ideal, of course. There are other routes to victory that rely less upon Mass, but they will likely cost Ukraine more in death and destruction on their side. More risk too. This situation doesn't call for a hammer, it doesn't even call for a sledgehammer. It calls for a wrecking ball.
Steve
I don't know what the kill rate was during the 1991 Gulf War but what you're asking for seems even higher than the Western coalition pulled off in 1991
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Just now, G.I. Joe said:
My dad spent a summer in Leningrad during the 70s as part of a UN-sponsored university exchange program between the United States and the Soviet Union. I remember him saying that the most shocking thing about alcohol in the USSR was that the vodka bottles had pull tabs...
I watched a video and the reason why they had just pull tabs was the assumption the bottle would be consumed in 1 setting...
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8 minutes ago, Lethaface said:
China doesn't need to invade Taiwan to blockade it.
Blockade would be an act of war. China would be subjected to the same sort of sanctions Russia is being subject to and China is more integrated into the global economy than Russia, so it would be far more damaging.
The risk/reward of just blockading Taiwan doesn't seem worth it to me, but who knows.
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5 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:
It's not widely remembered, but one of Gorbachev's first big policy initiatives after he took over in the 80s was a temperance campaign...
The yearly alcohol consumption rate of Russian men was 3 times higher than Western males and a good portion of that was spirits which has a higher alcohol content.
Does appear to be a difference between Russian males and women. Women appear to be less indulgent.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Russia is going to move fast, probably faster than it should, to launch the offensive. The Russians might be idiots at war, but they aren't completely stupid. They know that every day this war goes on is not a good thing for Russia in every way conceivable.
There's also some rumors that Putin wants this wrapped up by VE Day celebrations. That's just about a month, which means they have to launch pretty soon or there's no way even a successful attack can tie things up in a bow in that time.
Which is to say that the stuff the West is talking about providing Ukraine now won't likely matter unless it's ammo for systems they already have.
They can try, but it won't work. Stalemate only happens when both sides are incapable of making progress. Ukraine has the capability to keep the war very, very hot.
This is something that needs to be addressed now anyway. No matter how the war goes this is a reality already.
Steve
IDK...as I've said in the past when I look at what's presented in front of me I would have to come to the conclusion Russia is done...but then I think of what Russia had endured and how the Germans as well as the West thought Russia was done in the opening phase of Barbarossa and how the West got many things wrong when this war started and I have doubts.
As for Putin wants things wrapped up by VE day, might that be a view seen through a western bias? In the West having a war wrapped up by a major holiday-especially a military oriented one might be desirable, but in Russia maybe not?
When the war with Hitler was going badly in the first year with Germany, Stalin insisted on having a military parade IIRC.
Many who study Russia and know far more than I do have commented that sanctions are going to have less effects than we think. The Russian economy is geared for war. I'm sure the Germans were shocked at the Russians packing up entire industries and moving them East. Putin by some accounts already views this as a total war against the West.
People learn to adapt to hardships. The Russian have been known for stoicism.
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28 minutes ago, kraze said:
There were no bad times in the 90s after the collapse of USSR.
In fact those were better times compared to USSR. But every new russian dictator stands on blaming his predecessor for russian never changing poverty.
Ruble collapsed in the 90s. There were shortages. Productivity dropped.
Doesn’t sound like good times to me.
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The lack of efficiency and corruption in the Russian military and society in general has been discussed in detail. I have to wonder what the role of alcoholism plays. The diet in Russia is lacking in fruits and vegetables and high in saturated fats. The death rate from alcohol related causes is off the charts.
If you do a search on alcoholism in Russia the stats are staggering. There have already been stories of Russian troops alcohol abuse when stationed in Belarus and the reports of looting in Ukraine looking for booze and the behaviors of drunk Russian troops.
I would not be surprised if toxicology tests were done on dead Russian soldiers would show many were under the influence when KIA.
Vodka has an interesting history that I never knew about. Its was once a huge money maker for rulers and tightly controlled.
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10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
This is why my armchair advice a few pages back was for Ukraine to get every HE chucking system they have into position and turn an otherwise beautiful part of the world into a moonscape. For Russia to win it has to use mass. Mass can be defeated with mass. Especially in this case because the Russians are in very bad shape to start with and the Ukrainians have shown very good skills at using artillery for devastating effect.
Steve
The MLRS would be well suited for this sort of fight. We don't know what the west is sending besides whats already been mentioned. Apparently both the West/US and Ukranians are not disclosing the full inventory of weapons.
The other possibility? Maybe a phony war. Russia threatens additional offensive action but just sits back and a long stalemate takes place with no cease fire or peace agreement.
Then the West will have to support Ukraine economically sending billions a month while their economies slowdown and slip into a recession with inflation on food and energy skyrocketing.
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24 minutes ago, billbindc said:
Also, don't be fooled by current energy purchases. People in the shipping industry are saying that Sinopec and other refiners are getting extremely leery Russian cargoes. They are already planning to not reup contracts (see above) but also may drop current contracts due to difficult to square insurances issues. In other words, even the Chinese are going to untangle themselves from Russian gas/oil in the next month or so.
I'm aware of this. China would have a hard time getting more Russian energy anyway, not only because of shipping insurance rates, but also because of a lack of facilities that can handle supertankers. It would have to be loaded on smaller vessels then off loaded to supertankers at another port so really its not very feasible and from what I've heard the existing rail-line between Russia and China is already running at full capacity.
Its Europe that's buying Russian energy.
Right now energy is already stretched and there is no excess supply. Oil and natural gas prices are already at high levels. The US is releasing oil from the strategic reserve and Europe is probably going to do the same.
If Europe stopped buying Russian energy and started buying on the open markets prices would skyrocket even more.
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14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Yes, this is the reality. People (I mean journalists!) are confusing an index number with reality. The pre-sanction Ruble exchange rate was in a full and open market with global demand determining the value. The post-sanction Ruble is not. Basically, it's akin to the old Soviet days when Moscow would set it's own exchange rate. It didn't mean squat.
Steve
That is true but people are still buying Russian energy and that money is going somewhere. China too sets its own exchange rate for the yuan. The Russian population has an older population that remembers living under the old Soviet Regime and the bad times of the 90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
I'm skeptical of economic sanctions. Iraq, Iran and North Korea have survived them.
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Russia ruble rebounds and Russian energy exports increase.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mocked-rubble-biden-russia-ruble-193615066.html
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Good report on Ukraine mastery of information warfare:
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Any world governing entity run by humans will always be flawed…
I can’t recall who it was but one official who was key in the 2003 invasion of Iraq made a candid remark years afterwards to the effect that if he wasn’t an American official he’d probably be on trial as a war criminal IIRC.