db_zero
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Posts posted by db_zero
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When and if the big offense takes place we’ll get a taste of what artillery is about. Some of the speculative article I’ve seen say it will be an artillery war.
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2 hours ago, chrisl said:
There's some indication from reported ADS-B error signals that GNSS is being degraded over Ukraine, but I'm not convinced that it's Russia doing it. When the US launched GPS, it was the only global satellite system available and "selective availability" was built in to give the US a military advantage. A lot of the military turned out to be using consumer GPS in GW 1 and SA got turned off in 2000 partly as a result of that, partly at the request of FAA, and partly because other systems were coming online. There are now 4 GNSS systems (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and BeiDou). Anybody who's capable of launching such systems is also capable of launching systems that will degrade their performance from space by spoofing signals.
The Soviet Union had a bad relationship with maps, in which virtually all maps were seeded with significant errors to cause confusion in case of invasion. This bad relationship went on for many decades and was only publicly acknowldged in the late 80s, shortly before the dissolution of the USSR. According to a friend who spent a bunch fo time there, inaccurate maps predate the USSR for similar reasons. So it's likely that Russia was going into Ukraine with Soviet era maps, at least for some levels/regions, and they may or may not have recognized the problem with that. Ukrainians followed what appears to be standard eastern European practice of removing and/or rearranging street signs to aid their attackers. As defenders, Ukraine doesn't really need high quality GNSS - they have people who know the area and their own maps. So if some space-capable nation with EW satellites decided to inject a few hundred meters of error into the GNSS signals over the region, it would likely make a mess for out of town visitors without completely wrecking aircraft nav safety. I've been on backroads in the mountains in the US where there might be two fire roads that parallel each other for a while before going to very different places, and even with undegraded GPS it's not hard to get yourself onto the one that climbs an extra 1000 m of elevation before descending into the town with no restaurants instead of the one that descends into your planned lunch stop.
As far as NATO aircraft along the Ukraine border- Rooks and Kings is probably right that they're not doing active EW from the Growlers, but if you watch ADS-B exchange, there are a lot of NATO aircraft loitering in the neighborhood along the Ukraine and Kaliningrad borders. There are a few types that usually are transmitting who they are: several types of SIGINT plane (various RC-135 versions, E-3, RC-12, Global Hawk drones, others, ), lots of transports going mostly to Poland, and a large number of aerial refueling planes. Who we don't see at all is who's being refueled, but there are probably a lot of them, given the number of tankers. To see who's getting refueled you probably have to be in Poland or Romania with a pair of binoculars.
Be interesting to see if RC-135s or other assets are also operating out of places like Turkey or further north than the Ukrainian area to triangulate what they pick-up.
They’re getting real life training and practice.
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11 minutes ago, Lethaface said:
That would probably give China issues getting any new lithography machines of the same type, or getting their current ones serviced. AFAIK only Nikon and ASML provide these.
Don't about this particular product, but Fujitsu Ni-CD batteries are some of the best ones to get, but you have to be careful. Some are still made in Japan and high quality, while others made in China using machines shipped to China to be used for cheaper labor, but sold under the Fujitsu name are not as high quality.
One of the conditions for opening shop in China is you play by their rules and turn over everything to them so they can learn.
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Question to anyone who might know or have an idea...
Playing around in CMO and some of EW (electronic warfare) aircraft have effects that extend quite a distance. It looks possible to remain in friendly/neutral territory or in international waters, turn on the EW warfare gear and affect unfriendly nations radar/SAM guidance, ship radars and so on miles away.
Its was reported a few weeks ago that the US deployed a squadron of F-18 Growlers to Europe. These have an offensive ECM load out that has quite a range of effects when used. It appears they could easily stay in NATO territory, turn on the ECM and the effects would easily extend into Ukraine.
Over international water they could easily have effects on any ships within their ECM gears range.
I've heard of some reports the Russians may be jamming GPS.
What is the international law in regards to this sort of activity-if any? In peacetime and during conflict. Is interfering with a combatants use of the electromagnetic spectrum considered an act of war like blockading? Or is it something along the line of providing weapons and supplies, but not actively taking part in a conflict? Don’t see anything on this seems like a grey area.
I've heard of people losing TV reception and other effects to electronics when presumably military exercises were happening and jamming aircraft presumably turned their gear on.
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21 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:
Looks like regular, the testing scenario also incorrectly put the scenario at day time, clear weather condition.
I did a testing myself. Even with correct parameter, night time, heavy rain , sea state 5, a novice Moskva can easily defeat a salvo of 16 subsonic Harpoonski.
An EMCON D Moskva can detect the ASM at 16nm away and begin the engagement at 12nm away.
An EMCON A Moskva first detect ASM at 10nm away , the ASM turn on the weapon seeker radar there, broadcast their presence to Moskva . With a 18 seconds OODA cool down SAM left the tube at 7nm away. Most of ASM will be intercepted.
But, there is one trick to make a two Harpoonski strike successfully penetrate a radar silence Moskva's defense. Don't use automatic fire. Use BoL fire. First do a calculation to predict where the Moskva will be when the ASM reach that area. Mark a point on the map then make the ASM aim at that point , in BOL mode ASM will turn on their radar there. It is supposed to be somewhere very close to Moskva. They will hit the Moskva before her OODA cool down.
Took me a while to get down. I set the Moskva 60 nm South of Odessa as reported. I then placed 3 Bayraktar drones near the Moskva. I had a Klub-M-Tel ground based SSM (only Russian based one I could find for Ukraine).
I has a NATO AWACS operating from NATO territory feeding intel data.
I fired the Klub SSMs at the Moskva using Engage Target Auto modeand when the entered the air search range of the Moskva I would move the Bayraktars over the Moskva and harassed it and I got hits. Seems like I had to be on top of the Moskva to get this to work. Below is a shot from one of my earlier unsuccessful attempts.
Klub-M-Tel does seem to have an attack profile different than what was actually used. I'll try Harpoons later.
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26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
I have been seeing some of this in the mainstream as well. From where they are now to Dnipro is 160kms of basically the same terrain. I think the Russians might try this, as they have not shown any realistic objectives management in this war but it is the height of military insanity:
- They will likely not make it 50kms, let alone 150km unless the do some major re-tooling. This is not at a "hey let's throw in more troops" this is at a doctrinal level. They need to re-invent the BTG, or at least only ask a BTG to do what it can realistically accomplish and make more of them, along with a coherent formation structure on top of it.
- If they do success in carving a 160 km corridor to Dnipro they now have to defend it from both sides. That is a lot more challenging than a corridor half that length between Izyum to Donetsk, which was going to be hard enough.
- You also have to take the entire length of the Dnieper River to Zaporizhia or you leave an open resupply corridor for the UA, albeit a river crossing.
I am not sure why mainstream military analysis is still thinking in terms of big sweeping muscle movements for Russia at this point. They tried that in the first phase of the war and failed. We have discussed how "more troops" does not translate into "more combat power" extensively. But I am still seeing talking heads discussing Russian offensives in pretty expansive terms.
Maybe there is something we are missing or seeing incorrectly but I just can't square it off.
My guess and its only a guess is if you look at a map of the natural gas reserves in Ukraine a wide sweeping movement would put a vast majority of those natural gas reserves under Russian control.
Another issue is water. Ukraine cut off the water supply to the Crimea and it caused crop failures and water rationing. Russia wants to control water flow so the Crimea has access to enough to meet its needs.
Neon for lasers used in microchip production. Last thing the West wants is Russia in control of a good portion of the global supply. Lithium is also a potential factor.
Behind every war there is usually a economic and resource issue behind the stated "noble" goals. It may not be completely rational from a military point of view to attempt a wide sweeping offensive, but it wouldn't be the first time a dictator insisted on military strategy based on resource reasons as opposed to sound military strategy.
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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me. So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk. Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is sqauring off over and try and pull some deductions from that.
So here is what I did. I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:
For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:
They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern. So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything. I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view. Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:
On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting. Let there be tank country!"
These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum. So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare. I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff. But then go a bit deeper:
So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right. There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy. Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with. So what? Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics. Next how about all them rectangles:
Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws. For armored warfare these are going to be a problem. Easy button answer...arty them all! Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere. Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set. These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot. Oh wait there is more:
These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow. First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert. So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take. I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely).
Ok so what?
- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books. I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself. We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up. The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world.
- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare. "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one. You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand. While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence. The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right. While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making.
- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle. The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first. We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.
- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve. They cannot bring their last fight to this one. They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting. The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.
- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems. This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well. There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear. Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher. Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.
- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower. This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare.
Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.
#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope. I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.
#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.
#3- Bil Hardenberger. That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember. This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.
This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up. Higher risk but the payoff is intense.
Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.
Good use of FS 2020.
I took a look at this article and it mentions that in one of the potential what ifs (Scenario 2) is Dnipro becoming a key piece of terrain and if so that implies heavy urban combat. Looks like this person believes the main axis of the offense is further West.
https://mwi.usma.edu/what-comes-next-in-ukraine-three-scenarios/
In another analysts I read that many of the potential battlegrounds have already been fought over since 2014 and are heavily entrenched with towns and industrial areas interspersed between open areas, many of which are already heavily damaged and defended by the most experienced Ukrainian units.
Whatever the case I would have to believe that control of the roads and hubs that links roads will be critical. Keep hearing its not the strategy, operational and tactical stuff that matters, but logistics. If that's the case then a lot of the towns and other areas cannot be bypassed, but would have to taken and controlled otherwise your supply line become vulnerable.
In the late 42-43 phase of the war in the east the Germans made good use of strong points that the Soviets would have to assault or bypass at great peril.
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26 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
We basically agree.
Fuel prices have also exploded, which also will add to the final cost of food. But the world economy is not 100 pct free market. World governments are watching this, and while they are not always very competent or benign, they do realise they are in trouble if they let the poor starve.
Just look at what happened in France with the Yellow Vests movement - that started by rising fuel costs.
It’s going to be an interesting balancing act. Governments running massive deficits, raising interest rates from basically zero to combat out of control inflation, while increasing defense spending, subsidizing industries and feeding the rest of the world to keep the pot from boiling over.
The global safe haven and holder of the global reserve currency the USD has a Fed that has signaled it will raise rates aggressively to combat inflation and will unload 95 billion a month in MBS off its books for the foreseeable future.
Its going to get interesting…
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11 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
I agree that higher food prices might cause political unrest in many countries, but I think you overlook two things:
1: Many of the world's poorest (in Africa mostly) live off the land and grow their own food. They are more vulnerable to bad harvests due to weather, not so much to international food market shocks. Relief organisations such as WFP will have to pay more to fight famines, but they also have set up store houses where they buy staple foods in bulk when the price is low, so they have a buffer at least.
2: In many developing countries, food is heavily subsidised already, for example in India. Same with fuel prices. Higher market prices will likely lead to governments raising the subsidies in order to prevent revolts. So higher prices may cause effects down the line, but I doubt it will be as simple as higher Ukraine wheat prices -> famine.
Ukraine not only produced wheat but also potash and fertilizer prices have gone through the roof. I recently saw a report that manure sales boomed and sellers are sold out.
A lot of the fear is based on the supply disruptions that took place resulting in the Arab Spring. Countries like Yemen were highly dependent on Ukraine for wheat. There may be supply from countries like India but can they afford to pay the higher prices.
One thing is for sure wheat and fertilizer has spiked we’ll just have to wait and see.
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33 minutes ago, Saberwander said:
I've read that a lot of these estimates are not taking into account that most of wheat is not exported, so the loss of Ukrainian or Russian exports is not that large in the grand scheme of things. Apparently India already produced more than will be lost by Ukraine being unable to supply food.
India also has multiple harvests per year and can cover the gap.There may be more to it. I’m not the expert on the subject but I follow it a bit as I’m an investor in many markets.
Wheat is sold in the futures markets and and supply disruptions causes prices to increase and that’s the issue. Many people are living day to day and can barely get by so any increase in prices means they can’t afford it or have to get by on less.
Also the price of fertilizer has gone through the roof and farmers will have to pass the cost down to consumers. Farmers in some areas may plant less due to the sharp increase in fertilizer costs. The war has caused a disruption to the supply of potash.
India may have a great harvest but will they be able to get the wheat to where it’s needed? The whole supply chain and shipping issues may come into play.
There is also some concerns about the ability of FCI to store all the excess wheat.
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41 minutes ago, TheVulture said:
There's already been a lot of talk over the last month about the possibly disastrous state of Egypt's economy and political systems as a consequence of the war - Egypt depended heavily on Russia and Ukraine for both wheat and cooking oil (see charts), so prices have gone up drastically there with Russia basically stopping exports and Ukraine being unable to either.
In Egypt it was already the case that ~65% of child mortality was linked to malnutrition, and one of the countries in the world in the higher overall malnutrition brackets, and it's probably getting a lot worse in the immediate future.
Africa is going to see major famine. The poor all around the world are going to get priced out.
The developed world will secure its food supplies first and can afford the higher prices.
Going to see major unrest all over and governments fall.
Arab Spring 2.0
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If and when this war ends and Ukraine retains ports and access to the sea, Germany or Sweden should sell Ukraine one of their excellent diesel subs.
One or 2 of these would make life hell for the Russian navy. Looks like the only Ukrainian sub was a crappy old Foxtrot captured by Russia in 2014.
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1 hour ago, chris talpas said:
It really is an amazing piece of software. Fun to explore the world and as you indicated it gives a very realistic depiction of the earth. Seeing the terrain really helps in understanding how the battlefield will be impacted by it.
If you have the hardware to run at 4k it’s amazing and a black hole for your wallet with all the add ons you can get.
Roads, power lines, scenery, cell towers, smokestacks, global shipping, weather add ons to name just a few.
The H145 Helicopter is my favorite.
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Sounds like Mother Nature is against Putin. Seeing reports there is unusually heavy rain in Ukraine.
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According to this report the Moskva was sailing in a predictable path that made it easy picking.
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37 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:
Looks like regular, the testing scenario also incorrectly put the scenario at day time, clear weather condition.
I did a testing myself. Even with correct parameter, night time, heavy rain , sea state 5, a novice Moskva can easily defeat a salvo of 16 subsonic Harpoonski.
An EMCON D Moskva can detect the ASM at 16nm away and begin the engagement at 12nm away.
An EMCON A Moskva first detect ASM at 10nm away , the ASM turn on the weapon seeker radar there, broadcast their presence to Moskva . With a 18 seconds OODA cool down SAM left the tube at 7nm away. Most of ASM will be intercepted.
But, there is one trick to make a two Harpoonski strike successfully penetrate a radar silence Moskva's defense. Don't use automatic fire. Use BoL fire. First do a calculation to predict where the Moskva will be when the ASM reach that area. Mark a point on the map then make the ASM aim at that point , in BOL mode ASM will turn on their radar there. It is supposed to be somewhere very close to Moskva. They will hit the Moskva before her OODA cool down.
There are just so many variables and when you factor in the random dice and other factors you come up with all sorts of results.
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1 hour ago, Probus said:
Nice! There aren't any good multiplayer games like Harpoon, are there?
I played harpoon multiplayer twice (at least I think it was Harpoon. Pretty sure it was). It was a blast, but lenghty and buggy back then.
Nothing I know of at the moment that simulates modern Naval/Air combat like Harpoon/CMO.
There is IKE for CMO, but I haven’t tried it yet and it not seemlessly integrated into CMO.
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31 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:
Someone has already use CMO to simulate the Moskva's demise.
https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1iS4y1w7CB?spm_id_from=444.41.list.card_archive.click
The problem is, we don't know too much about what happened last night, a lot of soft factors are missing. Plus the CMO unit's godlike reaction time, inadequate simulation on fatigue, equipment overheat. This makes Moskva an invincible fortress in CMO
What experience level did he set Moskva at?
We definitely don’t know all the fact and may never know in our lifetimes.
Set up CMO with the Moskva and then set up with US AWACS, F-18 Wild Weasels and other assets set to a strictly “neutral” role and then try with just Ukrainian assets without US/NATO assets and see what results are.
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We don’t know the true facts yet but you would think if it was really an accident and not a missile attack other ships in TF would have stuck around and assisted.
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23 minutes ago, womble said:
Something that's puzzled me about the Moskva getting hit: where was the rest of her task force, specifically the escorts...? Isn't the point of a modern naval task force to provide mutually supporting overlapping fields of defensive fire to protect the assets that project force?
What role does the Slava class fulfill? It's got more ASM than a Ticonderoga, but even though it looks like it's meant to provide substantial AD capabilities, it's not in the same class as an Aegis platform... Is it a defensive "strongpoint" for the TF, or is that secondary to its Vulkan tubes?
That’s a good question, but to be fair there probably were other ships in the TF but tens of miles away and they may have fled. Unlike WW2 ships in modern TFs are widely dispersed.
Also Seems like the Russian Navy has same mentality as the Army…don’t give a damn about the men serving under you or other ships just scattered and ran.
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3 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:
I'm still thinking about getting it some day. I was quite disappointed though with the first version (CMANO), especially because of the extensive need for scripting to prevent the almost nonexistant tactical AI from getting their units killed.
I about to say the major flaw in CMO is lack of integrated multi-player. Playing against another human is what would take it to the level of Combat Mission-that’s what sets CM apart. No AI can match another human.
I get bored with CMO after a while because I can predict what it’s going to do…
There is some PBEM out for it but I haven’t tried it yet and there is little on the matrix site so seems like it’s not officially supported.
I’ve asked for wego and MP features but in surveys seems like most players are more interested in the “chrome” stuff.
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10 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
Good link, thank you
I’m surprised not more is being discussed on the Matrix boards.
CMO is a good sim. The database is extensive. Covers air as well as naval aspects and like CM a professional version is used for training.
Based off the game Harpoon. I bought my first PC just to play Harpoon.
Really shouldn’t be surprised the Moskva sank. Russian damage control has always been questionable, unlike the Western navies where DC is taken very seriously.
Russia ships are toting a lot of weaponry and it makes it look intimidating but also just more to go bang and burn. The designs of Russian ship especially older one have flaws.
Just like their tanks that have ammo stored in a way that is dangerous to operators.
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Russia is not going to be in the microchip business anytime soon.
Even in the US it takes time. Ground was recently broken in Arizona for a new chip factory and it’s going to be at least a couple of years before it operating.
Also neon used in lasers for microchips is in short supply. Guess who produced nearly half the worlds supply…Ukraine. They supplied 90% of the semi-conductor grade neon to the US.
If that’s isn’t bad enough helium is also facing shortages.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by db_zero
Looking at the 18 SP guns the US sent and the radar that tracks incoming rounds. 18 SP guns doesn't sound like much. My guess is 18 is a number that can be competently maned and maintained by the Ukrainians at the moment. These are not typical artillery pieces.
The 40,000 artillery rounds sent. Are they mostly HE rounds or are some smart rounds and rocket assisted too?
These 18 SP guns sent are designed to shoot and scoot with a high degree of speed and accuracy. They were designed for use in a fast moving environment in mind.
It may have been an artillery war since 2014, but I don't think what the Ukrainians have is in the same class of what the the US is sending in terms of digitization and integration to advanced fire control techniques.
Probably a reason why the Russians bitched so much about the latest shipments of arms. The last thing they want to see is Ukraine in possession of dozens or hundreds of modern US SP artillery.
These 18 SP guns will up the Ukrainians artillery game considerably. In layman’s terms it’s like going from a DOS PC running on a 1980 PC to a Windows X running on modern hardware.