db_zero
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Posts posted by db_zero
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On 11/19/2021 at 8:58 AM, Bil Hardenberger said:
GMT games has a boardgame game on this subject: Next War Taiwan (there is also a Vassal module)... I am looking at it right now in our office bookcase where we keep our wargame collection. As @The_Capt says though.. this is a very sensitive subject, fascinating, but sensitive.
Bil
Don't know if you already purchased or have kept up. I was recently looking at this. I just got back into board wargaming when a friend mentioned he wanted to play board wargames so I decided to jump back in. I was dismayed at what people were asking for a used copy.
Upon further investigation I saw on GMT website they are going to make updated reprints that take into accounts changes since the original was produced in 2015. Its a P500 edition and they already have more than 500 pledges. If you pledge you can get at discounted price. No estimate on when they will actually start sending out new editions.
Flashpoint South China Seas was recently released. Looks more focused on the diplomatic and geopolitical aspects. Sort of reminds me of a Twilight Struggle sort of game. I'll probably pick up.
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Looks like the support link has a problem as I get a security warning and can't go any further. Happens in Windows 11 and10 with all browsers-Firefox, Chrome and Edge.
I have an issue with Shock Force 2 installation. The USMC Campaign is disabled. The NATO and British Campaigns look ok
With Red Thunder I have I get a file missing message v.200.brz-but looks like game runs anyway.
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Some Russian vs Ukraine mayhem.
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FS2020 looks great and give a basic approximation, but keep in mind that it doesn't always accurately interpret terrain features. Trees and other features can be exaggerated, misplaced and have abnormalities.
You can get add-ons to clean up features, but even they aren't perfect. I've been and go to many different places and FS 2020 does a decent job, but some places especially out of the way places can be off to a significant degree.
When it comes to military operations the errors probably amount to significant. Then there is the seasons and weather.
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Russia is only part of the equation. Zelinsky has stated any potential agreement with Russia will be put to a referendum vote by the Ukrainian people.
Ukraine has already stated that territorial concessions are off the table.
If the war drags on and economic conditions continue deteriorating in the West you gotta wonder if outside forces will put pressure to end things.
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As economic conditions tighten and country headed towards an induced recession (yes that’s the track the Fed is on to kill inflation), the support for continued unlimited support will probably trend lower, but highly unlikely to evaporate completely.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-economy-inflation-467db62b671b1057ab867cf9a1335c93
I don’t know what any sort of end to conflict will look like and it seems like we’re nowhere near any sort of agreement. Neither side want to budge.
I can’t picture what victory would look like for either side (Russia or Ukraine) -continued stalemate that continues for years?
Maybe Putin will eventually be replaced but what comes after? Is a completely destabilized and dysfunctional Russia in anyones interest?
Looking back at our involvement in Iraqi we had a stunning victory in 1991, years of an undeclared air war, then invaded in 2003, declared victory (mission accomplished) and spent years stabilizing the situation and I can’t say if Iraq is better off or not-like many other things it just dropped off everyone’s radar…
There is a lot of reporting and speculation on the tactical, operational and military strategic level, but the geopolitical end game and implications are very muddy.
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15 hours ago, cyrano01 said:
And, of course, the Israelis crossed going the other way on October 15th during their counter-attack. Possibly more impressive as it was managed at shorter notice and without the massive numerical edge.
If I’m not mistaken the Israeli counterattack across the Suez was lead by a special reconnaissance unit using captured Russian vehicles.
During the crossing and moving forward the Israelis encountered an experimental Japanese horticulture facility.
Thinking the writing was Chinese the ensuing battle in the area became known as the battle for The Chinese Farm. It was a very intense battle.
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2 hours ago, kraze said:
Russian mentality is akin to primitive tribes - meaning that their will to fight is tied to them gaining something materialistic - that includes not just territory on global level, but looting on a personal one*. So if they will just keep getting killed without any new toilets to steal (both literal and proverbial) - their morale will suffer quickly and it will be another collapse like the one that happened near Kyiv. That primitive tribal mentality is also the cause for rape of children and elders - as a means to dominate their victim.
That primitive mentality is why you can't reason with them and is also a hard one to grasp for way more civilized cultures. Russians have no concept of humanity or cooperation with anyone, their mental level is largely that of small children - so that's why they are fanatically convinced of own superiority, to them everybody exists only to give them stuff (or rather have it taken), it's why Russians go "lies lies lies I don't hear you la la la" when presented with evidence they don't like, constantly cry about "russophobia" abroad (even though nobody oppresses them ever) and before you say "woah dude don't you exaggerate?" - look at their leaders. One is raging about how Ukraine was invented by Lenin and the other one is raging about how Jews did Holocaust. Leaders, which are the best people they have, spewing nonsense you hear from some kid in Call of Duty online.
And unfortunately these children have weapons that kill.
*looting got decriminalized in Russia in March literally for that very reason.
Appreciate your response. Russia is a vast country with many ethnic groups. It seems some are not enthusiastic at the current state of affairs and have little desire to join in this war. The relationship between Russia and Ukraine has been destroyed for decades to come. I don't know how Ukrainians feel about the other ethic groups and regions that compose Russia and I can't imagine having my country ravished like Ukraine.
I have no idea how all this ends and how the 2 sides can co-exist next to each other. Even if Putin gets taken down by a coup I don't know if what comes next will be better. The idea of a democratic Russia or something even close seems like fantasy.
I don't know much about Russia. I studied it extensively 40 years ago in College, but that was a different time and all academic.
I did know someone who migrated from Moscow a few years back well. We were co-workers and he was thankful for being able to come to America. He had high technical skills so it was probably easier to get a visa and eventual citizenship. He had a lot to tell me and warned me to be wary of Putin and don't believe anything he says. I'm sure he's probably very upset at what happening now.
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14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
the General Forum just migrated here.
I think you’re right…time for all of us to agree to drop the ACW topic.
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1 hour ago, kraze said:
Didn't know evil putin was so good at dressing up like innocent, oppressed russian kindergarten teachers and switching between costumes so simultaneously.
I'm curious to hear your take on a few things. I see you consistently post statements like "you view things through western eyes"
I agree with that. I'm an American but lived overseas and one of the things I learned quickly was the way Americans view themselves, their country and how others perceive America is often at odds with how everyone else views America.
Aside from the divergent attitudes there is the fact America is surrounded by 2 massive oceans and hasn't had a modern war fought on our territory. Wars are fought in far off places using massive American firepower and money. When you look at the placement and reach of US military bases and outposts its truly amazing. Nothing past history rivals it.
The existing world order is one that arose out of 1945 where basically America imposed a global set of rules predicated on free trade, dominance of the USD and backed by the US military, primary to promote US economic growth and dominance.
I'm hearing from knowledgeable people who think this whole notion that Russia will come to it senses willingly or unwillingly is fantasy based on western bias. In western thinking losses already suffered, the failure to achieve even basic objectives and the cost would logically lead to finding a way to exit. That is a western way of thinking.
Russia on the other hand they believe is not that way. Russia will continue this fight even if they suffer losses in the hundreds of thousands and they have a history of enduring losses that are incomprehensible to the west. Russia has food, oil, natural gas and the basic resources to continue to fight a primitive style of war. Just use massive artillery and back it up by massive manpower.
I've heard all the arguments for Russia to cry uncle and they are logical and based on some sound reasoning, but once again is this western biased thinking?
I've also heard a retired US general say that summer is the key period. Ukraine has to win or make big gains then otherwise once winter come around things will start to move away from Ukraine's favor. He believes the long war strategy is the wrong on for Ukraine.
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Don't want to rehash what already been said. Look at the current and future demographics for China and you'll see a nation that's headed towards serious problems. A massive aging population and decline in birth rates.
China is not Russia. Russia is an exporter of oil and natural gas. China must import both in large quantities. Their economy would come to a grinding halt if that was disrupted.
China didn't steal the US manufacturing industry. US and multinational corporations willingly moved the manufacturing base to China to take advantage of cheap labor on a massive scale. The work is grinding, the pay is ridiculously low and the conditions are about a step or 2 above exploitative. Profits was the motive.
Even if we wanted to the US could never create the sort of manufacturing scale that exists in China and there is no way Americans would be willing to work for the same low wages or conditions that Chinese peasants migrating from the rural area are willing to endure.
If you think inflation is bad now, just imagine what it would be if the manufacturing was being done in America with the wages and benefits America workers would demand. That cost would get passed down.
People talk about Russian propaganda. America has its own form of propaganda. Its called corporate media and politics. American media has changed over the years. Its now all about money. Stating boring facts doesn't sell. Creating outrage does. Same is true for social media.
The politicians who are concerned about getting re-elected and funding their campaigns are all to aware of the power of manufactured outrage. Its sells, it generates funding and its far more effective than just sticking to facts. The American public has a very short attention span, by and large they are not going to pay attention to complex facts, nuance and complex details. Add to that all the massive gerrymandering going on it little cause for optimism.
China is a problem. It's not just Taiwan or the treatment of Muslims, but the recent events in Hong Kong is cause for concern. Like Putin and his cronies the CCP is concerned about staying in power. Like Putin the internal security apparatus and forces behind it is massive. It has to be. China is composed of many ethnic groups and things could get out of hand quickly.
The US and China for better or worse have a mutually dependent relationship in-spite of the rhetoric. Much of the current economic issues in the US is related to the Covid lockdowns in China and the resulting disruption in the supply chain.
China is massively dependent on exports. If that gets cut their economy will collapse. They are trying to move away from that model, but China isn't there and if you look at the projected demographic trends in China, the future doesn't look good.
How the US and the West manages the complex relationship with China will determine what happens. China has seen the unified West response to Russia's actions and knows any similar response to any perceived hostile actions by China could lead to sanctions that would destroy their economy in short order. China is more vulnerable to economic sanctions that Russia.
Like China its also going to be a challenge for America and the west to manage Russia, Ukraine and Europe if and when the conflict ends. Its easy now. America and the west just sends money and weapons to Ukraine and the Ukrainians kill Russians by the bushel.
Managing the peace could end up being the real challenge and given the broken state of American politics, the media and social media where most American consume and get their information, that is driven by the profit motive that knows manufactured outrage sells and boring facts don't, doesn't give many cause for optimism. You have to dig deep to get to the facts and most Americans would rather just have it spoon fed to them by whatever outlet matches their leanings.
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Bottom line is Ukraine will always be 1-2 steps ahead of the Russians. The OODA loop is clearly in favor of Ukraine. This is something that Russia can't fix on the fly. It would take years of re-organization, training and investment.
Russia will just have to plod along slowly and use massive indiscriminate firepower, because that's all they have and all they can do.
Just waiting to see what happens on the 9th to see if Russia does fully mobilize and tosses more cannon fodder into the meat grinder.
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1 hour ago, Ultradave said:
One thing that has baffled me about this entire event, is the seemingly ineffective Russian counter-battery capability. Even 30 years ago we trained that you would only be able to fire a few volleys from one location before you were located by counter-battery radar and fired on.
Theoretically, the Russians have enough assets that they should be able to keep the Ukranian artillery constantly on the run. These days it should be even tougher for the enemy if you have an effective counter-battery capability. Target acquisition radar can quickly pinpoint the location of a firing battery. Assuming you (being the Russians) know that Ukrainian artillery does not have a death wish and will fire and move, fire and move, once located, drones should be sent to track/follow a displacing artillery battery.
It's much like control of the air. Control of the "artillery space" is a key element. Deny the enemy the effective use of theirs, while protecting your own. Shear numbers should help the Russians protect theirs. Until just now or soon, Ukraine doesn't really have enough to effectively counter ALL the Russian artillery.
Perhaps in some respects we are missing part of the story from the Ukraine side, as to how their artillery is faring. But Ukranian artillery SEEMS to be operating with impunity and inflicting heavy damage, while Russian artillery seems to be occupied with reducing cities, block by block and not engaged in destroying Ukraine's field combat capability.
This is the impression that comes from what reports we see. Perhaps one of you who is there might have more to say on this? I'd be interested as I don't see the Russians operating with the effectiveness that I'd been led to believe they would.
In our DIVARTY, we had a Target Acquisition Battery, whose sole mission was counter-battery target acquisition, and from what I know, Russia would also follow this same process:
1. Target located by radar (ballistic track back to source)
2. Target location passed to appropriate HQ (probably maneuver brigade TOC and it's associated artillery FSO)
3. Bn FDC gets the mission from FSO
4. Bn TOT mission on enemy battery
5. Friendly batteries displace.
Ukraine was given C4ISR and other Command and Control assets before the war began as well as training. Combined with secure communications assets and training-something else provided the Ukrainians before the war is a huge force multiplier and allows for great agility and response times. NATO/US is also providing real time intelligence to Ukraine.
The Russian army has already demonstrated they couldn't even erect a secure communications network. I wouldn't be surprised if they are still doing things with pen/paper and using messengers. Their agility and response time is probably terrible.
I also have to wonder about Russian Air force recon capabilities, Are their recon assets still using 1980s technology where the plane has to land after a mission and have the film developed, then analyzed? That all takes time.
US/NATO aircraft have modern recon pods that can digitize images on the fly and then send them via secure communications links almost instantly to those who need the information.
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Speaking of the economy the Russian economy isn’t the only one in trouble-the US economy is looking shaky. Not in the same category as Russia but a severe recession is not out of the cards…
While not highly probable something along the lines of 2008 isn’t out of the question. Putins use of a tac nuke could be a huge shock to the US economic prospects given it’s already fragile state….GDP falling last quarter, stock markets in bear territory, inflation raging and the Fed way behind the 8 ball, forced to aggressively raise rates while dumping 50 billion a month in MBS onto the markets…
Have a great weekend everyone!
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I’m waiting to see what happens on May 9th. If Putin mobilizes the country, declares WW3 as some have speculated then we’ll have to see what that entails.
Does it give the theater commander authorization to use a tac nuke at his discretion?
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Unfortunately the use of a tactical nuke is something people need to start considering.
Too many have been too cavalier in their attitudes in regards to Putin actually going that far.
Hopefully they’re right in being cavalier and it never comes to pass. We’ll be in a whole new world once that happens and any response by the West to that is not going to result in victory. If nukes get used we all lose in some way.
Some have compared what’s going on as being similar to 1904 when Japan and Russia clashed and Japan an underdog at the time was considered overmatched by Russia.
Let’s hope Ukraine doesn’t end up joining Japan in the nuclear club-the bad one…
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30 minutes ago, Combatintman said:
To be fair to the Russians - there is only one military that is any good at SEAD and that is the US. It pioneered the techniques and spent a lot of effort in acquiring the means to do it competently. Nobody else spends enough money to properly resource the capability. A jamming pod and an anti-radiation missile strapped to a fast jet (which is pretty much the extent of every other nation bar the US's capability) do not a SEAD capability make.
To add to this-the US has squadrons specifically designed to do this task and train extensively to do SEAD. CAS is also another specialty the US has dedicated resources assigned. There is a pipeline for personnel and a very rigorous selection process for personnel who are going to be calling in air support. There is a shortage and the military is offering substantial bonuses to fill slots.
Really a lot of the "back-end" specialties requires resources and highly skilled personnel to make it work. That requires motivated and educated people to make it all work. Setting up a secured computer network, communication network and other non-combat, but vital jobs is not for the non motivated and non educated or trainable sort of people.
The Russians with their conscripted army is not up to the tasks and they probably spent too much time, money and effort on the teeth of their military and not enough on the non glamorous, but vital tail element.
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Don't know if this has already been posted...
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If you move past the initial part of the report and listen to guest it sounds like most of the aid being sent is just piling up in Lviv and not getting to where it’s needed.
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Lets look at what we do know:
1. The Russian military so far has demonstrated to be lacking in many if not most areas. We'll have to see if they have rectified their shortcoming in further operations.
2. The Ukrainian military has demonstrated remarkable capabilities and most units are now combat experienced. The overall effectiveness and efficiency of Ukraines military is arguably increasing.
3. The Ukrainian armored formations and Russian armored formations are roughly equally equipped, but in terms of performance and efficiency, the Ukrainians are better. So in effect I would rate them as more than a match compared to Russia.
Now we decide to give Ukraine more advanced tanks-M1's, Leopard 2. Even if its 6 months 12 months, what does that do? You've now transformed the Ukrainian armored formations into a significant over match compared to Russia, that is now capable of undertaking rapid and violent offensive actions into regions already occupied by Russia and if you take the worst case (something that planners for better or worse always do), Russia itself.
How do you react if your Russia? One possible reaction is to start basing nuclear weapons in the Crimea and Donbass. Your conventional forces that you know can't match Ukraine with its new found offensive weapons become just a trip wire. You justify basing nukes based on "NATO hostile offensive arming of a mortal threat"
These are the kinds of things I would bet are now being debated behinds the scenes.
How many M1s do we give to Ukraine? Do we insist on limits to how they might be employed? How would we enforce any violation of said restrictions? Do we allow them to be used in offensive operations to retake past lost territory and what are possible consequences.
We've seen what tanks like M1s are capable of doing. Russia does not have anti-armor systems like the Javelin.
Poland will be getting M1s, but there is a buffer between Poland and Russia and Ukraine is a different situation.
I'm not trying to be antagonistic to anyone. Just trying to see the possible good and bad of taking such actions.
To this point the West has been reacting to events in Ukraine. Many are now saying the West needs to define its future policies and actions.
I'm sure the subjects of M1s is just one of the few systems being hotly debated behind the scenes. MLRS being sent has been mentioned. Do we start sending more advanced IFVs that alongside M1s will transform Ukrainian armored formation into even more powerful offensive formations and what will the consequences of that move be?
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14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
This is where db_zero and I agree. There is a line and it is very dangerous to cross it. Knowing exactly where the line is, of course, is the problem. But I think it's safe to say direct NATO attacks on Russian forces is absolutely over the line. Tempting Russia to use nukes is dumb. Really, really, really dumb. So NATO attacks on Russian forces is a really dumb.
The difference between sending Leos or Abrams, however, is likely nowhere near the line. So I don't think it's dumb to provide Ukraine with Abrams. Just as long as it is understood their chances of being useful in this war is near zero. The war should be decided long before the first one could practically go into combat.
Steve
We have a difference of opinion here. I would like to see M1s sent, but I'm leery of what the outcome could be. As much as I would love to see M1s utterly crushing the Russian army with M1's, how Putin would react is open to question and once the nuclear rubicon is crossed there is no going back.
As painful and costly it is to watch a slow bleed out has a twisted logic of its own.
We're dealing with Putin who is paranoid. Its one thing to have your army stopped with defensively oriented weapons.
Its another if they are suddenly armed with offensively oriented weapons that suddenly crush your army and in your mind can then switch to an offensive mode and retake the entire Donbass and Crimea and possibly invade Russia itself.
We may say we would never permit that to happen, but to a paranoid dictator and people that have been invaded many times it may be seen differently.
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18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Sure, and NATO aircraft ending this war in 2 days by laying Russia's invasion force to waste is one of them. There's a big, thick line there and it has nothing to do with escalating weapons shipments.
What you're doing is drawing a pencil thin line between the current, and growing, array of things destroying Russia (economically as well as militarily) and a particular system that you think has significance. It is an incremental step, not some massive escalation. I do not think Russia attaches nearly as much significance to the Abrams as you do.
I think instead of debating me you should read a bunch of articles that detail how your line of thinking in large part how we find ourselves in this war right now. Putin has always threatened and, until recently, the West has always backed down. Fat load of good that did anybody.
Steve
There is undoubtedly a big debate going on behind the scenes about how much and how far we should go. I agree Putin has threatened and the West has backed down in the past. This time however the West hasn't backed down and is for all intents and purposes an active precipitant in the war. The question is how far and how much to go without provoking a response that once crossed is difficult to back away from.
Unless we actually know what's actually in Putin's head we're all just speculating.
The Korean War escalated into a much larger conflict. In the past like it or not some restraint had to be shown, especially when the parties involved are armed with nukes.
We're going to have to get used to that reality. The post Cold War days when the West could just go in with all guns blazing or hand out whatever weapons we want like candy are over.
Tried Creating Support Ticket
in CM2 General Tech Support
Posted
Looks like the link on the webpage is no good and should be removed or fixed. I clicked on the link in the message above and got into what looks like a new link where I can access the new helpdesk.
It prompted me for a username and password. The username was my email. I tried using the Username and PW I use to get access to my account but that didn't work so I had to reset. I'll have to check later to see if the ID and PW used to access account was also changed or I'll now have 3 separate login ID and passwords-1 for account info, 1 for help desk and 1 for the forum.