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Freyberg

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  1. Like
    Freyberg reacted to c3k in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My point is that the only thing keeping Putin from deploying conscripted Russians into the attack on Ukraine is that there is a Russian law prohibiting such a thing.
    Do you, or does anyone, think that Putin would let some words on paper keep him from his goal? That he'd rather be embarrassed, stymied, undermined, perhaps overthrown, than ignore a law? A law passed by a system which he controls?
    And, whatever his excuses to use conscripts, if the West or anyone else (as if there is any effective internal resistance left in Russia) cries "foul", he'll resort to his usual threats.
    So, I think I do have a deep understanding of how Putin can leverage his nation's manpower so he would not lose face.
    Much like the West looked aside as he invaded in 2014 (tourists, little green men, Tigres from ebay, etc.) he'll toss out a facile excuse (Ukraine is a rogue province (hey, it's working for China vis a vis Taiwan)) and expect the West to look at their feet, mumble excuses, and not do anything.
    The current modus operandi of the West supplying Ukraine with light weapons has not yet changed. Will it? I don't know. But I do know that Putin is a tyrant and that he can do what he wishes and just has to cloak it in the thinnest garb for it to be accepted by Russia.
  2. Like
    Freyberg reacted to acrashb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Took me a while to find it, but I did and now my reading in this thread will be faster and considerably more pleasant.  Thanks.
  3. Like
    Freyberg reacted to db_zero in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The events in Ukraine are going to add some more fuel to the fire regarding the highly controversial reorganization of the US Marine Corps. The current commandant has eliminated all tanks, reduced artillery, helicopters and fixed wing assets to focus on guided missiles, drones, long range anti-ship missiles batteries and long-range unmanned surface vessels that has sensors and weapons that allow for pinpoint bombardment. They are also buying unmanned boats loaded with Kamikaze drones.
    The reason for the re-org is the likely adversary China is a Pacific oriented theater that involves vast distances and the need for light highly deployable forces. Many of the potential hot spots are small atolls and shoals. Tanks are too cumbersome and heavy to land on these atolls and the risk of losing them to handheld anti-tank weapons is too great is the argument.
    Artillery is also limited by the fact many of the tiny islands are so small they can't be used from a safe distance away from enemy fire and may not be able to use indirect fire at close range. While not totally useless its argued that tanks and artillery "are of less value than the things we need the most" and with a limited budget choices have to be made.
       
    This has drawn the ire of just about every past commandant and they have been engaging in a PR campaign to slow or stop the re-org and are now lobbying congress. The argument here is the force structure is too tailored for a potential fight with China and would be ineffective elsewhere. There have been arguments that eliminating tanks makes the new force structure vulnerable in a fight with a armored heavy opponent.
    The events in Ukraine where light infantry armed with guided missiles are decimating tanks and IFV's, pretty much invalidates the infantry is vulnerable to armored formations even when taking into account the Russians lack of finesse.
    The argument that the new force structure would not be useful in a theater like Europe is also looking sketchy. A force structure like the new Marine Corps one would be highly effective in the southern coastal region of Ukraine. Anti-ship missile batteries would make any sort of Russian amphibious invasion or ship resupply of land forces a very risky proposition. Long range unmanned surface vessels with precision guns and guided missiles and drones would also be very effective.
    Norway another area the marines currently train in would be another region where the new force structure would be very effective as would Sweden and Finland if it ever came down to it.
    I still believe tanks are highly effective when properly used, but they are expensive to acquire, expensive to maintain and they will definitely need APS and more APS systems need to be developed. All of this will require money, lots of it and they are not easily deployable as their weight is already approaching the limits of practicality and adding on more stuff to protect them will only add to the weight problem.
    In the past few decades global populations have been trending away from rural areas into urban areas. Over 90% of global commerce moves on the sea, so it follows that urban areas located near the water is where the centers of government and economic power lie.
    A light infantry centric force with precision weapons, drones, unmanned surface vessels and anti-ship missiles makes a lot of sense. He may be highly controversial but General Berger is beginning to look very visionary.
     
  4. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I never said anything about not being responsible. And yes his country is under (brutal) attack, which is why I usually don't think/say too much about certain things. But he replied to me so I responded.
  5. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Maquisard manqué in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry, missed your plea. I agree - nationality is a construct, shouldn’t mean much.
    I similarly object to reading bile throughout the thread. I mostly lurk for the actual news but sometimes the non military commentary just gets too much.
  6. Like
    Freyberg reacted to ASL Veteran in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  7. Like
    Freyberg reacted to John Kettler in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Found this high res video of Russian fighting positions to be highly surprising, in that instead of firing positions on a trench, here, for the first time I can recall going back the Cold War, if not earlier, we have individual fighting positions directly next to each other in a line, but with no trench at all. Seems to me this would be a nightmare if under fire, there being no way to get from one hole to another without coming up above the ground. The holes look like they may've had pioneer assistance, too.
    Mar 19
      No comments     Regards,

    John Kettler              
  8. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Sgt Joch in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I am more the cranky old man "get off my lawn" type of guy. 
     
  9. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Panserjeger in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This one is the most detailed I have seen, no post for today as of now. Further down the thread there are maps for the different AOs:
     
  10. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Haiduk As a Ukrainian, what kind of peace settlement would you find acceptable if you were the one to decide at the negotiating table?
  11. Like
    Freyberg reacted to keas66 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apologies -  please feel free to delete my last post .
  12. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Sequoia in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Take it outside guys.
  13. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Sgt Joch in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would love to have the whole world be a paradise with no war, death, poverty, hunger, crime and everyone is kind to his fellow human and dog, but that is not the planet we live on, is it Sunshine? 😉
  14. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Sgt Joch in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    well actually the calculus is easy.
    lets game out victory from a Ukrainian POV. Hoping that the Russian Army will just collapse is wishful thinking at this point IMHO. So question is whether the UKR army able to push Russian forces back to the border, recapture Donbas and Crimea?
    if yes, in what time frame and at what cost in money, destruction to infrastructure, civilian and military casualties and is it worth the cost? then proceed.
    if not, than the answer is obvious, negotiate the best deal you can get.
  15. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have been reading this topic everyday for the last two weeks and signed up to thank you guys.
    This topic is the most informative source that I have seen on the internet for understanding the realities of the war in Ukraine.
     
    Keep up the good work guys.
  16. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Vet 0369 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And this is a prime example of “if we fail to learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it.” We learned a lesson from the WWI vengeance reparations, and not only didn’t impose massive reparations on Germany after WWII, as far as I know, but we implemented the “Marshal Plan” to help rebuild BOTH Germany and Japan. Seems to me that those policies had MUCH better results than “vengeance based reparations.” Vengeance is also what has continued the millennium long blood feuds that still exist in many countries.
  17. Like
    Freyberg reacted to Cogust in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I saw this unconfirmed footage of  Russian column retreating from Kherson toward Crimea, a wargamer friend of mine living in Kherson confirmed that there has been a lot of vehicles moving East along the highway as well as distant explosions near the highway. The first units pulling out according to him was a rocket artillery unit. 

    He also heard the Ukraininan attack on the airport, so things seems to be moving here.
     

  18. Like
    Freyberg reacted to DMS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I didn't want to interrupt your speeches (I liked story about Muslim Muscovites most of all). But, damn, you use Soviet AKs, T-64s, any weapon in VSU is Soviet with exception to some new ATGMs. Ukraine energy system is supplied by Soviet built nuclear stations invented by "incapable serfs" (thanks to moksha-yakut mudblood Kurchatov). How can you live with such contradictions in your head?
  19. Like
    Freyberg reacted to db_zero in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Many of the commentators writing articles in major media outlets are the same ones who were cheer leading the US into invading Iraq in 2003 so I take what they say with caution. They are the same crowd who advocated for aggressive US expansion after the fall of the Soviet Union. Long discredited by the results of their push to spread democracy at the barrel of a gun, they now using this opportunity to push for aggressive US posturing. They have an agenda they are once again trying to push. 
    Caution by the US is warranted. In 1951 after initial North Korean invasion, the US pulled off the Inchon landing and the US euphoric at the turn of events and got aggressive moving North. Then China stepped in.
    Right now China is embarrassed at Russia's performance and indicating they would prefer a negotiated settlement and restraint. They have also indicated they want to avoid being sanctioned. Watching the reaction of average Chinese citizens on the street, most indicate they don't approve of the invasion and side with the Ukrainians, but also of note is if Russia was attacked then China should help Russia.
    We're in the Cold War 2.0 and one of the features on the Cold War was proxy wars. No matter how this ends we're probably in for a long period of more proxy wars...
  20. Like
    Freyberg reacted to John Kettler in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    sburke,

    Melnichenko's Yacht A is one of the most hideous vessels I've ever seen,  maybe the most hideous.  Characterized it as the illegitimate offspring of of an incompetent blacksmith and a ship designer with no sense of beauty. The other seizures pictured are lovely vessels.

    Regards,

    John Kettler

     
  21. Like
    Freyberg reacted to John Kettler in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Unless something has changed drastically over the years, Russian tanks do not have lower side hulls made of armor steel. It's just standard steel. This was absolutely true for the T-55 and T-62, and I believe true for the T-72. Not sure after that. Believe this design choice is based on both cost and expected hit location based on combat findings and OR. In Afghanistan, the muj discovered they could kill the driver of a BTR-60 via AK-47 fire into the foremost left side wheel well, ultimately resulting in the installation of a field expedient protective plate. While I don't have the 2A-42 penetration figures handy, I have every confidence that it could demolish a tank by firing into the lower side hull.

    Found it interesting that the Azov BTR-4 engagement was conducted on the move throughout and that display res was far better than even what I saw on a T-14 conducting a shoot with its thermals.

    Regards,

    John Kettler
  22. Like
    Freyberg reacted to John Kettler in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Haiduk,

    Since we're talking here on page 228 about when and how the UA heavies may come down on the Russians at full force,  would refer you to my remarks regasrding a pic of ammo recovered from a captured Russian tank, where it was conspicuously obvious (3 rounds of HE, no CLGM and maybe 1 or 2 heat rounds, all else HE-frag) that this wasn't even close to the typical Cold War Russian loadout of 20% KE. My conclusion from this is that  at least the ammo load didn't reflect a foe expecting a tank battle. Would suggest UA look at ammo loadouts on other captured Russian tanks, in terms of splits in ammo types,and round counts of actual tank killing munitions carried, including CLGM if any. As we all know, a sample size of 1 has zero statistical value, but I believe there may (note conditional) be enough captured Russian tanks, taken on multiple Russian operational axes, to see whether that pic that was posted was a one off or maybe reflects a larger pattern. If the latter, that might have significance in seeing how well the Russians, using forces already in the field and in combat, are prepared to fight UA tanks with their own tanks, something I'd further note their doctrine strongly disfavors generally. 

    Regards,

    John Kettler
  23. Upvote
    Freyberg got a reaction from Chip76 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    John Kettler,
    I personally appreciate your contribution to CM over the years - you have searched out things that are historical, factual, and often extremely interesting. Some things on this particular thread are possibly propaganda, maybe to some degree on both sides. I don't mind that - I like to know what propaganda is out there. It's OK to hear this stuff direct, then you can make up your own mind.
    Another very common type of post in CM forums is the opinion post - some of it quite well-informed, a bit more of it being 'armchair general' kind of stuff. I find opinion posts less interesting, but a lot of people like them.
    Anyway, I'm glad you post the things you find - I have no time to search out any of this stuff myself. I don't like it that others are rude to you - my rather long list of people I've blocked on this forum is made up of rude people, something I can't abide.
    Anyway - keep posting. I've always appreciated your diverse posts on CM and I continue to appreciate them
  24. Like
    Freyberg reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    GODDAMMIT SBURKE STFU!  yes, Kettler double posts.  he is older and in ill health.  WTF is your excuse for posting about every double post he does?  Do you see how that immediately doubles the wasted space?  then kettler responds, tripling the pointlessness.   Do you not have a the ability to ignore or skim past something you've already see?  Jeebus, get a f-ing grip.  (And then I respond here, adding to the wasted space ) 
    How about if someone double posts we all just ignore because we've already seen it?  Instead of adding more useless BS to what is otherwise the best source of UKR war info around.  And remember that folks are in different time zones and might have 5 pages to skim through from the night before.  So folks might miss stuff.
  25. Like
    Freyberg reacted to John Kettler in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    sburke,

    Sometimes I can recall a thing I read long ago, and other times I can't recall in which of, say, a dozen tabs I looked at within the last hour I saw something important. There are times when it's completely lost from memory in a horrifying 30 seconds. Brother George has seen just this happen to me with an extremely simple rule mechanic for a WW II skirmish game. For someone who used to be a walking threat encyclopedia with a cavernous highly accurate memory, this is immensely frustrating. Am trying to be responsive to suggestions, but they have to deal with the same memory problems, too! What I'm trying to do now is get the freshest info possible and/or provide supplementary material, such as the Stinger/Piorun comparison video.

    Regards,

    John Kettler
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