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AlexUK

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  1. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So, is the West basically over? 
    I mean, yes, it still exists. But nothing is working as intended, is it?
    - disinformation amplified by foreign agents enthralling 20% to 50% of the population, depending on the country, who have become completely disconnected from reality unable to be reached effectively with conventional information lanes
    - nations basically unable to defend their allies or themselves in a larger military conflict 
    - international institutions formed in the Cold War era or shortly after either useless,or dominated or hamstringed by authocracies within them
    - huge problem with political apathy or inability in the non-neofascist parts of the population and its politicians; they are doing and saying the same things they did and said before we got here and have been losing ground ever since 
    Almost feels as if Putin is basically right with believing that democracies are unsustainable systems.
    Did we lose the hybrid war in the 2010s and never noticed until now, because only after Feb 22 the cockroaches came out of their prepared holes in force?
  2. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to EZ in ezCMBN German Uniform Mod   
    ezCMBN German Uniform Mod
    If interested, you can find the last full set ezCMBN uniform mod at the below link. It is not packed in a .brz file, so after unzip you can see what is in the mod, just no helmets.
    Down Load Link
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ib6l1fwzhs76vq75x701t/CMBNGermanUniforms.zip?rlkey=t1kxxdlbqauzc5d012v55iceo&dl=0
     
    ez
     

  3. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to kohlenklau in CMFI KOREA 1950 MOD scenario creation thread (and later with PBEM DAR)   
    When you convert an ASL scenario over to CM you can try and carry over the victory conditions but typically in my experience it goes beyond the ability of the CM scoring system to make it work. A human player discussion must occur to finalize who wins. In this scenario I must hold at least 2 of the multi-hex buildings as they are called in ASL. Here below you see them as labeled objectives...
    He seems to be bringing both of his 2 tanks up on my left. My right just faces his infantry. I had those US Army trucks in there based on the story of truck drivers first seeing the NKPA approach and hauling butt to the rear. They were also bringing up ammo so I could use that as I am on historical scarce ammo levels.

  4. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to kohlenklau in CMFI KOREA 1950 MOD scenario creation thread (and later with PBEM DAR)   
    On my right I had a nice ambush set up and I reaped a fine harvest of blood! (Corniness Level 7 out of 10?)

    I even nailed one of his commanders! Either it was Hyundai or Kia. 

    I wish I could say the same for my left by the station. The bazooka team is safely back from the wall near the enemy but the MMG is looking to die there. If I can manage to get them all out of there and back to the other buildings...


     
  5. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to Anthony P. in Ability to detach BMPs' ATGM launchers?   
    According to Zaloga, S.; Sarson, P. (1994). BMP Infantry Fighting Vehicle, 1967–94, the 9P135M-1 ATGM launcher (introduced with the upgrade to the BMP-1P, used for AT-4 and AT-5) could be detached from the turret and employed on the ground, somewhat like mortars can be removed from mortar halftracks and deployed on the ground in CMFB, or like how TOWs can be detached from the M151 and deployed in CMCW.
    This significant ability appears to have been omitted from CMCW.
  6. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I was going for a more mocking angle to be honest.  Since the dawn of time people - usually old people - have somehow hooked whatever social ills they see onto a crisis.  “Moral decline”, “Hippies”, “Homosexuality”, “Women who can vote”!
    Human social systems are naturally a mix of progressiveness and conservatism.  And rarely, if ever, does a war start based solely on whatever social issue means most to you.  We did not start wars because “the church” since the Crusades, possibly the Middle Ages - and even then there was a whole lotta money and power at play.  We sure as hell have never started a war over any of the rest of “damn kids these days” stuff.
    The West is not going to fall over the obsolescence of religion or LGBTQ issues, or whatever you are worried about.  Why?  Because it didn’t last time with “women voting”, “civil rights” and “rock and/or roll”.  In fact since those End Times, the West has continued it rise in power and wealth.  
    If anything does destroy the West it will be power hungry egomaniacs that leverage all that social angst into something really dangerous.  They aren’t doing it because they really care about our church/mosque/raccoon ratios - they are doing it to take more power.  The dismantling of democracy, social divisions that turn cancerous, deep corruption and greed- this is how empires die.  Not because we decide to stop going to freakin church and start this strange new thing called “meditation”.  
  7. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to SonsofUltramar in Annual look at the year to come - 2023   
    If the CMx2 base games we have are all we are going to be getting, I dont have any issues with that at all if BFC needs to move on from CM, or just focus CM into modern titles/titles made for British MOD, ect.. There is plenty of experiences to be had within the games that are already released.
    But I would rather we knew as a community that was the direction this train was going. If BFC is done moving the ball forward on CMx2 content, and CMx3 is not on the table, and the only CMx2 content that is being developed is by the community, then make it official.
    You all are working with Slitherine/Matrix. Look at what they did with WitP. WitP was a fantastic, really groundbreaking, game. We loved it - but we saw that there was much more that could be done with a lot more work. The official developers (2by3) had moved on, so the community put together some really talented people and created WitP:AE as an official Matrix product, not just a mod - a game that thrives to this day.
    Steve and everyone at BFC, maybe you all are hard at work on CMx3 or CMx2 Kursk, and are going to drop that bomb on all of us soon. If not, and you all have moved on from actively developing content for CMx2 (not just patching, but content from inhouse BFC) just make that official so we know what the road forward looks like. If its up to us to team up with you all and develop the new content for CMx2, there are many of us who would like to do so - but are waiting to see if CMx3 is a thing thats even being discussed. This also serves well in framing our expectations - if nothing more is coming, then we can stop looking for something new, and start looking at how we can add to what we already have.
    Many of us have been here a long time - we want to see CM succeed as it is really unique in what it presents.
    You all have been very good at transparency in the past - would love a little insight into your thoughts on the future of CM.
    Thanks
    Chad
  8. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to Vacillator in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Hey, you're back.  Good to see you again.
  9. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to kohlenklau in CMFI CMAK2 TUNISIA 43 PBEM DAR   
    I have done a couple lately. Here are links...
    https://community.battlefront.com/topic/141673-cmfi-cmak2-afrika-mods-explosion/?do=findComment&comment=2009797
    https://community.battlefront.com/topic/142292-how-to-make-a-big-mod-test-dummy-log/?do=findComment&comment=2006188
  10. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Since no one else is listening to Steve about Israel....
    I am pro-Israel.  And I am pro-Palestinian.  Meaning they both deserve to live & have a state & have rights.  In my crazy mind Palestinians and Jews are actually all....people.
    The attack:  I hope the crazies had fun.  All that will come of this is Israel killing over 10x the number of people it lost, taking land, and becoming more entrenched in hatred.  Like the bus bombings of 20+ years ago, which utterly destroyed the Israeli peace movement.  While great fun for some imbecilic radicals who think they actually achieved something, it will do nothing but bring death, misery and more poverty to the people these idiots claim to represent.  And Netanyahu loooooooves this.  He gets to be big daddy protector now, and he'll pound the hell out of whatever he thinks he needs/wants to in response to this.
  11. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to kohlenklau in CM KOREA 1950 MOD   
    A slow day at the Osan open air market...

     
     
  12. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Short answer seems to be a combination of ISR, PGM and Unmanned systems.  The actual job of a tank is to take a big gun, move it around the battlefield, point it at the enemy and hurl a slug/shell at them.  They carry a lot of armour and other system to allow them to survive.  Ok, so let’s just break it down:
    - Mobility.  Small unmanned systems have already demonstrated extremely high mobility on the battlefield.  Even with the counters and their vulnerabilities the sheer volume of those systems combined with their small size and manoeuvrability basically positions them everywhere.  A tank has mobility but it is limited in comparison.  They can roll across the battlefield at 60-80 kph, but never really do for obvious reasons.
    - Survivability.  Big heavy armour no longer equals Survivability.  Distributed, redundant  cheap systems equal survival.  A force can lose 10 drones a day and still sustain that entire system, tanks cannot.  Being small and many essentially means that entire unmannned system, plus ISR is more survivable than that of armour.
    - Lethality.  That big old gun projected energy like no one else’s business…whammie.  Nothing else can put a slug down range at an opponent at over 2kms per second.  Thing is that big guns performance is not the only measure of lethality.  As far as Range is concerned, PGM have far out ranged the tank gun, in some cases by an order of magnitude.  As to actual energy transfer, well chemical energy on the target at point of impact is extremely portable and distributable.  In the past the only thing keeping chemical energy in place was accuracy.  A tank gun is extremely accurate and things like artillery were not - they were considered area weapons.  This war has demonstrated in spades what PGM can do - massed precision beats everything.
    So basically we are seeing a distributed systems of chemical energy-based weapons able to move and survive -as a system- and kill with better precision and range than a tank gun, at a fraction of the cost.  How many times have we noted that it looks like the UA is maneuvering via Deep Strike?  We have seen massive trends of Denial based on the combination of ISR, PGM and unmanned.  
    The tank has not been replaced by a single platform, it has been replaced by a swarm…at least for right now.  If we need to move death rapidly around the battlefield that can precisely kill, well we are seeing it. If technology shows up that can sweep unmanned systems for the sky or defeat PGM well then we are back to a new-old ballgame.
    The proof of this has been building in this entire war.  How many time have we seen either side try to mass mech/armour and fail?  Tanks are noted right now as fire support.  They are either being pulled forward in 1 and 2s for sniping.  Or standing off 10kms and lobbing in shells.  Why do you suppose both the UA and RA are doing this?  Is it because both sides suddenly forgot how to put 16 tanks into a squadron and smash them at an opponent? (Btw, that is the working theory for some).  Or is it because they already tried that, multiple times, and it failed to deliver?
    What PGM, ISR and unmanned has not been able to deliver is breakthrough in 2023…yet.  That suite of systems is not able to provide rapid break in, through and out of an opponents defensive.  But neither can the tank, which was its primary job.  So we seem stuck in a mutual Denial situation.  What I do not know is where it goes from here.  Are we looking at Denial/Defensive primacy in warfare? - we have been here before.  Or is this a blip until PGM, ISR and unmanned fully mature?  Can we actually build the counter-systems rapidly enough to regain a level of symmetry?
    We do not know.  This entire back and forth about a single ground platform is in fact silly, but not a bad way to pass a weekend.  The reality is that land warfare, maybe all warfare is likely fundamentally shifting. This is an earthquake in military affairs.  We do not know if AirPower works the same.  We do not know if Offence works the same.  We do not know if combine arms as we knew it works anymore.  Manoeuvre Warfare, Mission Command, how we force develop and generate…they are all looking like they may be in the wind.  Hell based on the last week, I am not sure Naval Warfare as we knew it is going to survive.  Trying to figure out what still works, what does not and what will work is going to be the central challenge moving forward.  Unless we fall back on “Russia Sux” and “Poor UA just don’t get it”, which we will of course.  It won’t be until some NATO force gets crushed in some 3rd party nation that the lights will go off…or maybe we will buck the trend and get out in front of the change…we have managed it before.
  13. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to Magnum50 in Can we get a better order page please...   
    To the Battlefront Gods to be... can we get a better order page, like titles would be nice.
     
    Got a new PC, was able to get Cold War found and installed... but all the others, and their upgrades, patches, and DLC is insane to locate, copy the key download and install... after all these years there has got to be a better system.
     
     

  14. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to WimO in Operation Coup de Main Campaign progress update   
    NIne out of possible twelve scenarios almost completed. Two might be dropped due to lack of interesting subject matter. Had to modify a few scenarios based on newly acquired information. Spending last few days writing and rewriting a complex AI script for a large and long German attack on a complex map. The thought came to me today that scripting a large AI plan is like creating the coreography for a theatrical production. Every new impulse demands another play test to check the timing and effect.
  15. Like
    AlexUK got a reaction from LuckyDog in Mission Briefings   
    I proofed a bit. 
    I wasn't keen on the tone either. 
  16. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to kohlenklau in Operation Deadstick designer's dilemma.   
    My Dad was 18 in 1944. He was USN armed guard on Liberty ship convoys. 3" guns. 40mm ack ack. Could he be the brain behind a 1950 detailed recount of his convoy actions? 
    I would stick with what you have and maybe just revise your designer notes. Maybe
  17. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to L0ckAndL0ad in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Re: possible insurgency
    1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
    2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
    3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
    4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
    5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
     
    Re: how am I doing?
    My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
    For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
    But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
    I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
    I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
    Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
    At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
    Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
    I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
    Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.
  18. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to kohlenklau in CM KOREA 1950 MOD   
    Today in a few hours I go to say probably my last goodbye to a dear friend. His wife said the cancer has spread all over and he is in pain even with the fentanyl patch at 100. Del is age 90 and served during the Korean War. He never made it over to Korea but spent a couple years blowing up trees to turn Camp Stewart, Georgia into a tank training center. As a corporal, he ran the armory for his Engineering Company. A great story of his, and he has a ton, is when a young officer, butter bar O-1, was turning in a .45 and it went off INSIDE the armory. The bullet passed down through Del's pants leg. Cloth only. No blood spilled. The company commander chewed the officer out AFTER Del had his chance.
    My CM Korea Mod is dedicated to Corporal Delma Ware, US Army.
  19. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to kohlenklau in CM KOREA 1950 MOD   
    As a side project, in my spare, spare time, I am gonna start to see what I might be able to create for portraying "The Forgotten War"...
    Obviously BFC will never ever do it. Obviously I am limited for what can be portrayed.
    Fake Lobster Kimchee anyone?
    Does anyone have a computer wargame with Korean language combat sounds? 
    We can perhaps get those sound files and process to be our voices for CM Korea.
    I already started a scenario: "Task Force Smith".
    CMFI is the current base platform.
    US is the US.
    British will be the North Koreans.
    T-34/85 is the Sherman IIa.
    If you want to join the mod team, give me a PM.
     
  20. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to Phantom Captain in Combat photography: Photos from the front..   
    @FlammenwerferX and I have completely locked horns now and our battle is raging.
    Here my brave Soviet troops await the word to move.

  21. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to Brille in Any tips on maximizing the chance of tank v. tank spotting?   
    Didn't knew that. Thanks for the info. 
    Though how do you mean "works as designed"? (guess that the abbreviation for that) 
    I would find it a bit more logical if some kind of circle or "bubble" would be drawn around the first spot of an enemy unit. And if this unit stays in this bubble it would be easier to spot it again. This would simulate some errors by the scouting unit and by the receiving unit, searching for this target. 
    Simply said it would be just a rough description of the units location "Watch out for a tank in this area/around the barn/around that forest" 
    But the way it is "designed" as you say (and the way I understood it) hints more to like 
    "Just watch out there is a tank on the map somewhere" 
    This would make the whole spotting and inormation transmitting process a bit to simple for my taste. 
    But it works good enough I guess. 
  22. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to Paper Tiger in Updating Hasrabit   
    A quick update on progress - I've been trying to decide how best to get this project moving and one of the reasons why it's proving hard to do is that some of the new missions are just too damned hard and just not fun for me to play. I don't enjoy playing really, really hard missions any more and prefer something doable with proper planning and a little bit of luck. So I'm dialling down the difficulty in some of the missions so that they're not all hard.
    I thought I'd get this finished quite quickly as it's already a working and finished campaign and just needed some AI improvements but it's turned out to be much more work than that. I forgot that pretty much every mission has an AI attack and they're a lot of work to get right. I want to do a good job with this and try to use as many of the improvements to the game engine since Hasrabit was released. I did a quick and dirty v2 back in the days to add AI fire plans and well, I was a bit over-zealous with that feature and that has required quite a bit of tinkering alone.
    Apart from the finale, 'Hasrabit', the Special forces missions, both Phase 1 and Phase 2, are all pretty much done with new OBs for both sides, AI plans and very extensive map reworks. The first three missions of the campaign are tested and finalised now and am trying to get the Phase 1 Republican Guards missions into a similar state. As I mentioned in an earlier post, almost all the RG missions are AI attacks or meeting engagements and they're really hard to do. 'The Guards Counterattack' mission is almost there but I've decided to make 'The Barrier' mission an AI-defense mission instead of the meeting engagement it was. Now it's the AI that is forming the titular barrier and that should make it easier as it doesn't take so long to devise a good defence with 2-3 AI plans.
    I've been scratching my head what do with Hill 142  - the delay calling in Syrian air strikes is appalling and so I'm pondering redoing the entire mission to skip the long recon phase. There was no Syrian air support in the original version and so adding it has changed the balance. I find it only works well in very slow missions with long waits for things to happen or if it is available from the get go in which case, it's often too OP.
    As for the Phase 2 missions, there are only two RG missions and they're both proving tough nuts to revise. 
    Heavy Metal - now I've decided to go back and use the original map with some tweaks like I have done with The Guards Counterattack for this one to avoid having to redo it completely. That means I will be able to tweak the existing AI plans instead of crafting whole new ones. I will keep the new map shown above for a future project - I have some ideas but I'll hold on until after this gets finished.
    Saudara - I've completely redeveloped the small built up area and expanded the map but otherwise it's not going to change that much. 
    That's where I am at the moment. I have to admit that I'm enjoying the newer, easier versions and the ideas are coming along slowly for the Hill mission. There's no rush to get this finished, there's no release date to consider so I can take my time. If it gets too much again, I'll maybe do some work on the German version of Gung Ho! to reinspire me.
  23. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Whoa, there buddy.
    Both my wife and I are lifelong runners. She once described my legs to someone else as dangerously sexy. The same can be said of her. Even today at age 68, she has the legs of a 30 year old. (I'm 66 and we both still run). Last week I was halfway through a 5 mile run, passed a lady on the sidewalk, as I moved out into the street to pass her (I don't like brushing past people as they seldom here you coming and you can scare them half to death by saying "On your left"). Got about 50 feet past her, hopped back on the sidewalk, and she yells out "Great legs!!!"  
    Still got it. 🙂
    So, engineers CAN be sexy. Even retired ones.
    Funny thing was I was right near my turnaround point so I got to run back past her face-to-face this time. She did not seem embarrassed in the least, just smiled and waved. 
    Dave
    PS - Our first date was a lunchtime run. We worked at adjacent companies. I ran to her front gate, we went for a nice run down by Long Island Sound, and chatted a lot along the way. Very public, so very safe. 
  24. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is because of who we were…middle of the food chain.  Prey animals are driven by fear because it is necessary programming to survive.  We were right in the middle until we figured out how to 1) leverage energy, 2) communicate, and 3) lie to each other and ourselves.  Our big juicy brains allowed us to do this at an evolutionary escape velocity rate.
    Good/bad, altruistic/selfish have no real scientific meaning - an eagle swooping in to kill another animal is not being anything morally, it is simply surviving.  We built social frameworks that allowed us to create social metrics such as good and evil…which are basically metrics of relative behaviours.  We are in fact both and will leverage them based on context.  In frames of certainty and safety we will act altruistically and “good”.  Pump in enough uncertainty and fear and we will start to eat each other in a surprisingly short period of time - see Hurricane Katrina.
    People want to believe we are good because their sky-god or whatever made us that way but in reality “being good or evil” is an artificial set of conditions.  The role of government is to sustain frameworks of order and certainty so we stay within a “good” frame.
    War is a collision of two or more social frameworks that creates a completely new environment along with a new set of social metrics.  “Being good” is killing other people.  Being good is committing suicide to save others so they can kill other people.  Being evil is to not kill other people and run away, or kill the wrong people.  War is also a state of massive uncertainty so we often see devolution happen very quickly.  Of course that is what military machines are all about - sustaining violence through order in a massive environment of fear and uncertainty.
     
  25. Upvote
    AlexUK reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Regardless of the exact lines on the map, the larger question is will Putin accept a Korean war type ending with an actual cease fire. He is trying to project that Russia can keep taking ~500 casualties a day forever to inflict a ~100 casualties on Ukraine. Now this may be pure propaganda on Putins part, that is 180,000 casualties a year, which is a LARGE number. The Russian military could fold next week, but the Vietnamese withstood those kind of numbers for a decade, as did both sides of the Iran Iraq war. Indeed Russia's position now most closely resembles Iraq after the initial stage of the Iran Iraq war. Russia like Saddam, has made some territorial gains, but utterly failed to to achieve the regime change and truly strategic victory that were the initial war aims. But the war continued for seven years until Saddam concluded his regime would fail if he kept fighting. We have to give Ukraine enough support to get Putin to that point rather more quickly.
    Indeed i would argue that there a lot of parallels between Russia today and Iraq in 1982 or so, an ugly regime that had spent decades justifying itself on the basis increasing prosperity has thrown that prosperity away on a very bad bet. It has now switched entirely to a blood and soil fascist narrative as it attempts to burn off its internal opposition and out group ethnicities by forcing them to bear the brunt of the war. To repeat, the question is how do you make it fail faster than Saddam did. My two cents, worth what you paid.
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