Hister

I'd say the LDPR forces are as thin and brittle, if not much more,  than the RUS as a whole.  Also, for the last four months the local populace has been enduring an elevated level of the Pushilin's regimes stupid brutality and incompetence. If the civilians see their "army corp"  collapsing will they really  go to the barricades for them?  How many women will be aching to put themselves in harms way for a regime that has stolen their husbands,  sons and brothers and thrown them into the human abbatoir on the front. 
Like the RUS army as a whole, the LDPR command seems to have emphasized the Attack over all else. They're thrown away thousands of men on useless, incremental attacks. The total focus on the front line must mean that rear areas are unprotected, inflexible and  vulnerable to rampaging columns.  There's probably no plan, no contingency, no thought in their heads of even the possibility of dealing with a  UKR breakthrough. Even if they start noodling ideas now they're way too late. 
It's impossible to put as much emphasis on Attack,  as LDPR has,  and yet also have a solid and adaptable defense in hand. 
So I'd posit the Donetsk front is hard but brittle, like elsewhere. The force emphasis  and command focus has been the same throughout the RUS/LDPR front -  the attack is supreme. The major exception is Kherson,of course. 
Still,  If UKR can punch through the front line defenses of Donetsk and advance into the rear areas then it could be Kharkiv/Izium (Romperstomper), Part Deux (The Second Part) and by Thursday we may be talkng about the Fall of Donetsk in the past tense...
 

Colonel-general Oleksandr Syrskyi comanded of this operation. Also he commanded the defense of Kyiv
 
 

Heh, once again a word we - especially Steve- have been using here for months has found its way out into the world.  I am betting mainstream media will start using it in 24-48 hours.
I am not popping champagne until the UA pushes out a third axis towards Melitopol.  If they can cut that line and divide the two theatres the entire western front will likely collapse back to Crimea - and maybe beyond.  But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. 

6 people armed with anti-tank, anti-aircraft weapons, moving around on speedy vehicles with SatComs's and huge steel balls.
Followed by the force of a nation the likes have not been seen in close to 100 years.

I read that 6 brigades were participating in it (not counting forces from Slavyansk). Most importantly, these were supposed to be mostly/ only local units, i.e. the ones that were deployed in the region all along. There's no evidence of any of the newly created formations participating in the fight at the moment, which means UA still has some uncommitted reserves.

😆 I plan to drink something too every big Ukrainian win (I only started yesterday). So I'm off to drink every night this weekend.

And the day of victory, it will be one hell of a party!

Cheers 🍻!

If you see a white crossed vehicle, it's an Ukrainian one. 🇺🇦💪

If you see a white Z vehicle, it's a fleeing russian one. 🏳️🌳💥

And if you don't see anything... It's the 3AK counter-attack ! 😁🤦‍♂️😂

IF(!) some or all parts of Russia would break away, there would be no real problems with the nukes.
Why? What these new parts direly & immediately need is:
international recognition trade contracts Without 1) it will be difficult to stay a political entity, and you are likely to be gobbled up by a neighbor.
Without 2) there is no money and without that no state, either.
I guess those parts would be immediately recognized by Ukraine and the Baltics just for the fun of it and to get the ball rolling, but any negotiations with the West will have the #1 demand to destroy the nukes. With nukes, no contract, period.
With nukes, any new post-Russian state would stay a pariah forever.

I have to be on the phone today as well. So, mini update:
1. RU reports UKR made crossing near Lyman
2. RU local soldier at Izum demands urgent actions from RU command (implying nothing is done yet) or Izum grouping will be surrounded and lost. Says Lyman loss=encirclement of Izum (AFAIR the last road from Izum is going through or near Lyman)
3. Izum has communication with RU land, just take more time (seems they are relying on that road at Lyman)
4. I think you saw video of UKR in Kypaunsk. I am guessing they were there for some time already - that's why RU destroyed the bridge. You do not blow the bridge if you hold enemy few km away. 
Kypaunsk as road and rail road logistics hub is lost. 

Site I go to published this today in summary of latest in the war:
"And really, this offensive is truly possible to all those Territorial Defense Force units stuck in trenches up and down the front for the past six months, getting slammed daily, oftentimes feeling abandoned. Their impossible heroism allowed Ukraines regular army units and 300,000 reserves to prepare in the country’s west, while Western allies equipped and trained them in proper war fighting techniques."
While we're feeling good about progress it's good to remember who's months of suffering and deaths made this possible. 
 

We learned from history that we didn't learn from history.

http://media.giphy.com/media/3oKIPxUlFQEULY6ODm/giphy.gif
The gif doesn’t show, but it includes a ”prediction”.
 

The problem is that there are fewer washing machines when you go around a city 🤔

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Reports coming in from all over the globe that sunflowers are standing significantly taller and shining much brighter today.  Evidence from my yard verifies.  Wonder what this means?

And I am back for a couple of minutes.
RU soldier reports at 21:16
UKR tactics are smart They avoid urban battles and just move on with their BTGrs Following groups surround RU troops left behind RU troops left behind have no heavy weapons so cannot do anything against UKR RU threw some troops to hold Shevchenko but UKR bypassed it through outskirts leaving some troops as blocking force  UKR are moving towad Kupyansk Serious UKR column of foreign AFVs/vehicles is moving toward Kupyansk (as of 20:00) RU troops mostly stopped resisting [at this direction]. They are abandoning positions that are not fortified and retreating  

They are about to cross the field (after the ridge) toward the settlement. The field is possibly littered with RU petal mines. So, APCs drive forward (behind tanks), detonate mines, drag away any wire obstacles and infantry run along the APC track to avoid mines.
[UPDATE] It is what UKR author of video said.

Grigb's theorem is: divide russian numbers by 10. So it means 6 tanks ko and 120 kia

My reflection here does not really effect your line of argument but I think it could be important to highlight, as this very moment in time and space is one which we constantly return to.
I would argue that the capitalists and right-wing politicians did not support Hitler because the wanted something, as much as they feared loosing something. At the time there was a strongly felt fear of a leftist, russian style, revolution and since the right did not want to cooperate with even liberal/moderat left-wing political forces, the Nazis provided an alternative with the muscle mass able to oppose “the proletariat”. The fact that the nazis themselves had stoked much of the social tension they were now asked to quench, is just par of the course for fascist development. 
 
Robert O. Paxton does a great jobb illuminating these processes in his book the Anatomy of Fascism. A text that is painfully relevant in todays political climate.

But I mean the guy is not wrong. russian "liberals" are even more cynical than their "RU nats" counterpart. They are just as fascist - but are a lot more dangerous because they are intelligent enough to pretend being "moderate". It's how Yelstin completely got away with all the atrocities - "yeah we just finished burning a few ichkerians alive, but we love your McDonald's, we gonna eat that McDonald's so good, let's be friends US" *proceeds to drop bombs on Grozny civilian district*.
It's why I find Navalny to be a lot more hazardous than putin or girkin. Because in case of the latter two the West will keep cracking down on Russia. But Navalny and his likes knows how to pull West's strings to let all the warcrimes slide.

Poison of course.
And don't even need to poison the guy fast like Stalin.
Poison can be administered slowly, like they did it to Yeltsin. Even looks like the guy is gradually going senile and drunk from outside, as poison kills his braincells.
Problem is that putin did Yeltsin's poisoning and that trick would not work on him.
 
Or would it? (Dun dun duuuun)

RUMINT
UKR forces are conducting combat actions on 12 sections of Kherson frontline, on 4 we have advance. Involved all, what we have.

It's necessary to consider this statement not as an anouncement of imminent couter-offensive. Pay attantion - this statement made not military of UKR General Staff, not president as Supreme Commander. But Minister of defense, which in current terms more negotiation figure. Though, Reznikov said "President had ordered to prepare plans of liberation of South". So, don't expect any offnsive in next weeks. This statement is political message for Russia, which threaten to escalate warfare if UKR and West don't agree for peace talks in order to "fix current reality". Russian started new effort to influence of western politics by natural gas question and hints of war escalation (Lithuania, official declaration of war to Ukraine, nukes etc.) -Putin said about Special military operation developing: "we havn't started nothing serious yet". So, the statement of Reznikov about South liberation is a message to Russia - "we are threwing out your ultimatums and will fight further". This is message to West "even don't think to deal with Russia, we will not go for concessions, better give more weapon"
And about "million army gathering for South liberation". Looks like wrong interpretation. Reznikov just said in present time Ukriane is defended by about million servicemen, but not about this million will be thrown to South. He issued such numbers: 
Armed Forces - 700 000
National Guard - 90 000
State Border Guard Service - 60 000
Police - 100 000
Of course, theese 700 000 not all are "line infantry". About 120-140 000 are Territorial Defense. Many in Air Forces, Naval forces (except marines), rear, logistic, maintanance units, civilian personnel. Many of mobilized are training now or awaiting of training queue and this is also a problem - we have a "bottle neck" with capability of personnel training   

I'm starting to think we were wrong to call Putin 'Putler'... we should be calling him 'Putini' instead, remembering how Fascist Italy was able to take Ethiopia and Albania after great effort and losses, and had to be bailed out by Nazi Germany in Greece and North Africa.