The Steppenwulf

+ 1 - I looked also and couldn't find hardly any of the scenarios. So much content here, I'd be like a kid in a sweet shop. It would be fantastic if there were independent links to each of one these scenario files on TSD3.

Those that went to Iraq in the 90s as complete, or later as spare parts.

Going back half a dozen pages, there was a discussion about options open to Russia now, which seemed to be restricted to basically two. The only realistic one of the two, proposed by Steve, was (ultimately) the bullet for Putin. Whilst I agree with this (I posted a couple of hundred pages back that this conflict would result in a 'pressure cooker' effect, where Putin runs out of road and the only thing that can change the situation is Putin's removal), there is however a third option, which I think would find the release valve and call time on 'Mexican stand-off'... on terms that might even be agreeable with Putin. This is if Putin himself proposes to stand down in favour of a certain Dimitry Medvedev. I find this course plausible since I think it allows Putin to bow out without disgrace (certainly avoids a 'meeting with a lamp-post noose') and might open the road for a complete reset on all issues, starting with negotiations and a far more amenable RF approach, underscored by most RF concessions on the table for discussion. Of course the regime won't have changed but with Putin removed completely from the picture it would genuinely represent a step-change in everyone's eyes. I think this is possible because Medvedev has the experience and the expertise to navigate Russia out of this mess, is highly respected by Putin (tipped as his protege 15 years ago) and has the respect of the West as an international operator and recognised as 'a man the west can do business with'. Putting Medvedev in power in place of Putin gives Russia all the tools to dig itself out of its current crisis and arrests the long term economic problems that Russia faces if it continues down its current path pursuing pariah status. Goes without saying that the only condition of Putin's retirement would be no extradition of any Russians for war crimes. Hard pill to swallow for anyone hoping that Putin could face trial in the Hague, but it might be the only demand the west would have to give way on. Given the mess that Russia is now in, this might be the only sensible option open to Putin, if he wants to save his own neck and still retain some sort of favourable legacy, certainly not one that is 'the leader who led Russia into the abyss'. As for Medvedev, he's well understood to be a (compliant and patient) leader in waiting - he'll be taking over when Putin croaks anyhow. I don't know, anymore than anyone else, what's in Putin's mind, but I do think he must be aware historically how authoritarian regimes frequently end when they find themselves in this sort of corner, and it equally must be dawning on him that this is quickly becoming a bad situation for the RF on all other levels, and perhaps existential for himself. Standing down, with the current regime otherwise intact, is the least worst option open to Putin. It might just be matter of time before he takes it.

Precisely! Civil disruption may well be uncontained and widespread and state propaganda might not be able to deal with a crisis like this to continue controlling the narrative. This just adds to Putin's problems instead of its intended purpose; solving his manpower issue.

The problem anticipated is that national conscription is likely to have the vast majority failing to turn up for the roll call. Then it becomes a massive internal issue for Putin because failure to comply is 2 years in prison. Not exactly good publicity for your war when men are being rounded up and thrown in prison camps by the tens of thousands. The reality is that it becomes quickly unenforceable It turns into a massive headache for a regime that is actually quite fragile. Its fragility is evidenced by the sheer amount of controls and restrictions being exercised over the population, extreme propaganda etc. Thus declaring martial law could signal the beginning of the end for the regime and explains why it is a huge dilemma for Putin, a real "Rubicon" event.

UPDATE: Fireship4 has all the Kieme mods uploaded to dropbox and they are each listed by folder, you'll find post and link at the bottom of this thread. The MT-LMB 6MB (30 mm cannon) will be the one in the Rus strela-sthurm folder.

@ThePhantom The Kieme mod folder containing specifically the Russian MT-LMB vehicles is in my dropbox here. Please confirm once you've grabbed it and then I can remove.

Grenada - I recognised the year straightaway

'Red Forest dust' - a highly sought after ingredient, and very special treat!

@kraze Both womble's comments and mine should be read with the word 'ostensible' inserted into the lines about what Russia wants in terms of negotiating aims. We are fully aware that there is a difference between what Russia states, and what they really mean or want, but the points are still correct within the given context.

'Remember this.... your old friend, "the Linoleum Ripper"!'

The discussion points raised around a hypothetical cease fire/peace settlement are forgetting that Russia's predominant demand for settlement is that Ukraine be a neutral nation without any security guarantee - the counter demand of Ukraine for any such agreement. If Russia is serious about any deal it will have to drop this demand and that would mean an acknowledgement of a strategic defeat for Russia and Putin. The overall aim of this conflict would be thwarted and Putin would be agreeing to it. This position is intractable presently and can only be settled if Putin is deposed or RA accepts defeat.

Indeed - back to the "manpower" problem!! It was clear 4 weeks ago that Russia did not have the troops to continue this war without a radical rethink about the solution. Russia's best units have suffered serious degradation in combat power, or others are successfully tied up by Ukrainian's defensive set up in Donbass. And it's all well and good for the RA to bring more and more tanks and heavy weaponry into theatre, but who is going to operate that equipment at the level of effectiveness that is required? Once this battle starts I cannot see the Russians being able to develop the kind of sustained assault, with the commensurate level of organisation and cohesion that will be needed to seize and hold positions deep in the UA rear with such impaired numbers of trained personnel to prosecute it. Once the cohesion cracks and splinters it will likely shatter because, on evidence, most of their troops do not have the heart to dig deep and fight hard, but the Ukrainians do and that will undoubtedly show.

I think that's a misunderstanding, I read BeyondTheGrave' comment as sarcasm.

I know it's not third world but FWIW the price of fertiliser in UK has been rising 10% month on month. It's an underlying factor in a huge inflation ramp along with the more commonly known price hikes such as cost of a barrel of oil. I think also UK at least relies on pest control chemicals from Ukraine, without these, yields will be impacted pushing up prices further for the consumer due to supply/demand.

This was the first statement they put out at midday and was in contradiction to reports from UKR that it had already sunk. Then there was a MoD update later in the afternoon admitting it had finally sunk. The earlier statement if untrue was probably put out with intention to not cause panic amongst members of public with relatives and friends on board, it's not yet sunk gives the impression that there was time to evacuate, all was not lost. Remember that the media is trying to do its best to hide the true number of casualties in this conflict. "It went down in 7 minutes" is not in keeping with this media strategy.

I'm sure max range of the Neptune is around 300km, so that's a considerably greater 'stand off' from the UKR coast.

Yup officially sunk: https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783626130.html

Those weapons were delivered under a supply contract agreed sometime ago. They were just delivered ahead of the agreed supply time, which is a matter between Serbia and China. What Serbia might want weapons now for, is another question - we know they have an ongoing dispute with Kosovo and the latter have raised their concerns about the possibility of Serbian aggression whilst the west has its focus elsewhere. Regardless, for reasons provided above, this is false equivalence with respect to supplying Russia with microchips 'without anyone noticing'.

+ 1 Exactly what I was thinking when Desert Fox reported it a few pages back. Kremlin claims the 'purge' is due to generals embezzling funds earmarked for military. Sure it could be that, but given that this is the official sort of line we'd expect to hear suggests it's something they actually don't want us to know (if it was incompetence - why not state it? ). So it does smell very suspiciously more like dissent or even a plot of some kind.

I bet no one dare wake Putler to give him the bad news

I think this is very generous. I just reached for the dislike button - for the first time ever on the BF forum - and realised there isn't one!

No surely - not?!

I'm not sure that this is where it starts, or even ends. I mean maybe, but Russia is made up of so many disparate regions with a lot of complex and internal self interests. When the economy is breaking down and the Govt is still embroiled in a conflict, growing costlier by the day, the internal tensions develop and the self-interests become ever more magnified. Because of the authoritarian need to control everything, in this scenario, it's predictable that the Kremlin would just be overwhelmed firefighting all these collective problems, struggling to hold together any semblance of a cohesive nation. So my thought is that the longer this conflict continues without a ceasefire the more likely the internal tensions develop and a Govt that looks increasingly out of control. In this situation, I'd suggest there's likely only two end paths. Either the 'enduring painful conflict' collapses because the military will is no longer there, think Eastern Front 1917/18 - and where did that lead to - or else the writing would already be on the wall approaching that sort of critical crisis point and Putin is removed by either (relatively) peaceful or violent means from within the Kremlin. Presently though we are a long way out from this, just that all the conditions are beginning to fall into place for a typical sequence of events like this starting to unfold. It makes sense that Putin will be getting twitchy to wrap up this conflict asap, like in the next couple of months, latest before next autumn, beyond that the prognosis for him will start to look really bad I'm sure.

From the article: The costs of failure for the West are pretty high, the costs to Ukrainian nation could get a lot worse yet, regardless of their chances of victory. And: I know some on this forum are all for US/Nato intervention (even if just imposing a no fly zone) and I respect that view, but I stand on the side of thought that the west's strategy; that is, management of escalation, balanced against ensuring that Putin is defeated, is the prudent one. Clearly though the dial has moved somewhat as we enter a new phase of the war. But equally at this juncture, Putin has also given the West an excuse to now recalibrate the balance of their strategic approach. I reason this because obviously we now know about war crimes; the murder of civilians in Bucha etc; use of cluster munitions in Kharkiv; and (with some assumptions at this stage) the use of a chemical weapon in Mariupol. In light of this, the best most immediate and effective response, but retaining the balance of both escalation and necessity to support Ukraine to maximise a Russian defeat, is for the US (by hook or by crook) to get those Polish MiG 29's into Lviv. I know I'm repeating my own post here from 300 pages and 3-4 weeks back, but this move in my view is now the most proportionate response (if it wasn't before), and it's a move at a critical point in this conflict (as per the article and as we all aware) where it could be most effective to bring about a Russian defeat. I also considered the possibility that this action could give Putin an excuse to attack Poland, but I think that's highly improbable, given article 5 and the fact that Russia has not attacked UK, Germany or anyone else who has supplied lethal assets - those countries have already tested the water and Putin has done nothing. I can only conclude that Putin would be stumped for a response and would just have to suck it up. EDIT: Just saw @DesertFoxpost about the Slovakian MiGs. A very apt coincidence. We'll add those to the offering too. That makes 40 in total.