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BletchleyGeek

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  1. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rybar posted a new update. And it is very interesting. He confirmed what we talked about previously
    UKR made successful attack toward Karpivka-Redkodub-Nove breaking through RU defenses [22/23-Sept] RU counter attacked re-capturing Karpivka and Nove [24-Sept] UKR left a force at Redkodub to defend against RU counter attack [24-Sept] But the large UKR mech force is moving North toward Borove-Svatove highway [24-Sept]
    But the most interesting part is:
    While I am not sure how capture of Borove-Svatove highway can affect RU units at Lyman, the whole situation smells like something we saw very recently. Do not want to hype but...
    P.S. I do have one idea about the importance of the highway

    What's if road Lyman-Kremina is already cut by UKR forces or at least very dangerous to use by supply columns? UKR forces have been in the area for a sufficiently long time. In this case Lyman area is quietly supplied directly from Svatove. We know there is RU path through Nove-Makiivka-Svatove Also, there should be a path from Borove-Svatove highway down to Lyman as well. UKR already cut path at Nove  If UKR move to the highway they can cut path through highway.
  2. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    While thank you! It's going to be tough - my plan is to give my phone to the missus for safekeeping, otherwise I can't vouch for myself. And I'll take this off-topic opportunity to thank everyone for your kind words and advice, as a newbie to this whole affair, I really appreciate it! See you gentlemen in a day or two
  3. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We need to strictly seperate two topics here. Possible deliveries by Bundeswehr and possible deliveries by the industry. The present discussion is not about what the Bundeswehr has or has not available. Further canibalisation of the Bundeswehr is out of the question. It is about what the industry is able to deliver (non property of the Bundeswehr). By example since MARCH! Rheinmetall is able to deliver both tanks (Leo1A5) and APCs (Marder). Rheinmetall also has formally requested to be given export permission for that, but the chancellor refuses to do so.
    Rheinmetall bietet 100 Marder: Union lässt Bundestag im Panzerstreit abstimmen - n-tv.de
    Original motion here:
    2003490.pdf (bundestag.de)
  4. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Ts4EVER in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If anyone speaks German and is interested in a less stupid leftist perspective, the recent Jacobine magazine has an interesting analysis of Russian imperialism.
  5. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Soldiers pose in front of a charred Russian tank, on the road between Kharkiv and Kupyansk, Ukraine, September 18, 2022. SAMUEL GRATACAP FOR “LE MONDE"
    * seems T-72B3
  6. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I believe the US can offer some precedent here?
  7. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Had the West told Russia to get the hell out of Ukraine, and backed up Ukraine in 2014, in hindsight, this whole freaking conflict could have never occurred. 
    Instead, we sat back on the sidelines, let Russia think it could do what it wanted in Ukraine, and prolonged a conflict that today we see the shameful results of Western inaction where in 2022, Russia thought it had the ability to swallow one of the largest European states without regard for international outcry. 
    The initial aggression by Russia was in Ukraine in 2014. Instead of actually slamming the brakes shut, we let two puppet republics entrench themselves in the Donbas and Putin enjoy the fruits of his Crimean seizure. Had we actually cared about the principles of territorial integrity, those republics should have been ended via force of arms and for its trouble of promoting the uprising and filling the ranks of the separatists with men and equipment, Russia should have gotten back the body bags containing Girkin and the rest of those "separatists" to be buried in Russia. Instead, now cannon fodder Russian citizens are about to join their fellow cannon fodder of the republics to give their lives wholesale simply for Putin to try and hold some part of Ukraine forevermore.
    Why Ukraine must be made whole boils down that this conflict started in 2014, in Crimea and Donbas, and Russia has used them to be a cancer on Ukraine and its people, nearly killing both a few months ago. (please, let us not get caught up in me referring to Russia and the republics as a cancer considering Putin, who's power only grew more and more since 2014, is currently prepping to pile the bodies of poor Russians in a bid to choke Ukraine in Russian blood)
    It does not sit right with me we "need" to acknowledge these 8 year old conquests as deserving a special place and special consideration (nuclear red line or any other red line or any division between 2014 and 2022 borders) when the West refused to acknowledge Soviet legitimacy over the Baltic states for 51 years until they finally restored themselves in 1991. 
    I mean, imagine a scenario where Ukraine does not get to the February 2022 borders (still quite possible), is there a imagery 8 year timer before Russia gets to lump them together with the republics and Crimea and tell Ukraine "this is ours now"? and the West needs to caution Ukraine to not rock the boat, or we get nuked? Can we not make the connections between the West's collective actions since 2014 to now, and not recognize the pattern of accommodation of Putin and Russia that has led to this invasion, this outright attempt to place a country of 44 million under Russian boots? With such disdain towards the UN that they barely bothered to set up the pretexts needed to invade (no apartment bombings here...), where they probably spent more time making sure that all the missiles they fired after Putin's speech declaring war did so while the UN Security Council meeting was ongoing.
    I mean look at Azov, they spent years calling them war criminals, nazis, people who tortured the Russian speakers of the Donbas, touted their crimes, pledged to have their heads, to bring holy justice on these Nazis....and Putin ****ing sends  Denys Prokopenko and co to Turkey with barely a acknowledgement to the criticism and outcry of outraged Russians. 
    A tower of lies and slander promising only righteous death to true enemies of the Russian people and it just tumbled to the ground like nothing. I'm not promising Crimea will be the same, I'm just saying we don't need to bring up nukes every time someone suggests landing some troops on a Crimean beachhead or entering the pre-war borders of the LNR and DPR or that Crimean Russians will shoot from every open window, I'm saying there is a context to Russia and Ukraine and the West, it began in 2014, and I may be bold in saying, acting like the West can be good and happy for helping Ukraine get to the 2022 borders, no, that is not enough, 2014, restoring the complete territorial integrity of a state is still something the West can do today. 
    (im preempting any nuclear escalation comment by noting its only been 8 years, are you really saying Russia gets to wave a nuke to keep non-internationally recognized territory by waiting only 8 years? Sorry there's nothing deeculatory about that.)
  8. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Regarding UA specifically, they will have to get all this stuff right before they join. I can imagine some shortcuts being taken in economic sphere perhaps, or in some minutiae of the law, but the basics have to be there.
    Speaking more broadly, I think we are back to the inherent weakness of democracy as such, namely our ability to vote in some kind of Austrian painter. In essence I don't see how we could save ourselves from that, apart from being a decent people and society. And, as a declared optimist, I think it works pretty good for the West as a whole, with some notable exceptions (Poland included lately ).
    One positive thought for the near future I think (partially of the tinfoil kind) is that most of greatest insults to the democratic system we chose lately (including Trump, Brexit party, Orban, perhaps even PiS in Poland) were to a degree an effect of RU meddling in our affairs. I don't see how this continue in the future, I'm sure that anybody that can be even remotely connected to Russia will be burned from the get go, at least in general. And especially in CEE - any RU connections are lava around here lately.
     

     
  9. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    ATGM flies past the armored personnel carrier. An infantryman on top yells PTUR! PTUR! (ATGM! ATGM!). Someone has a new birthday.
  10. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry if I am being late - looks like UKR are making new significant push - RU reports they are being encircled at Lyman area

    BTW Nove and Makiivka settlements denotes RU retread part toward Svatove for combat-ineffective units. 
  11. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    For History, a sum up of the 6th month :
     
  12. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, so let's try and have an actual conversation about all this.  Why not?  It is "forbidden discussions" week on the thread while we wait for the UA to reload.
    First, lets put the emotion to one side for a moment - we saw how well that worked last time - and try to arrive at common ground.  I am not going to comment on forum policy or poor BFCElvis' endless and thankless work in trying to keep this place from become another internet cesspool - if you have a problem with forum policy, or felt you have been wronged in some way, take it up with him and BFC.
    So what to do about Russia?  Russians everywhere?  They started a land war in Europe and they are supporting it, to some extent, for 6 months while their military is, in part, committing what is pretty much confirmed as systemic war crimes.
    So how will justice be served in the prosecution of this war?  How will the offenders be made to pay so that it serves as an example to those that would re-offend?
    Legally.  
    The whole point of this war, and one of the big reasons why we care so much is that this is not just an unjustified invasion of Ukraine, it is an attack on the entire rules based international order.  In 1949, we all sat down, even Russia within the USSR, and said that this sort of action was illegal.  Its premise and definitely in its prosecution, by Russia, have been illegal within international law and the Law of Armed Conflict.  Russia's position, beyond some very weak tea technical arguments - SMO, has been - "ya, so what are you going to do about it...we are Russia and have nukes?"
    That will not stand.  It cannot stand.  It threatens the entire scheme at its heart.  That scheme, btw, pays for our lifestyles and guarantors the stability and security we need to thrive, get richer and fatter, and have the freedom to yell at each other over all sorts of stuff.
    So how will we put Russia back in the box?  Well first steps are to ensure it gets the spanking it so much deserves on the battlefield.  The next step, and it is very important, is to prosecute those responsible in Russia for this atrocity, within the frameworks of the law.
    "Oh but the law is so "woke", we need to get medieval here to send a real message!"
    1.  Shh, grown ups talking.
    2.  If we step outside the legal framework, the one we built, we will break it ourselves, which in many ways is worse.
    Don't believe me, well we have a convenient historical example - Iraq 2003. 
    And before anyone freaks out, let me start by saying that the invasion of Iraq in 2003 is not anywhere near what is happening in Ukraine.  The legal justification for that war was "thin" but it adhered to the rules far closer than what we are seeing today.  It was unsanctioned by UN, the evidence for the whole thing turned out to be incorrect; however, the US made a case for self-defence against a known international offender, one who had not only invaded another country but also threatened "the great Satan" repeatedly.  Further the US prosecuted that war under the LOAC.
    However the repurcutions of that action, one the edge of legality in some places are still being felt today.  In Putin's last speech he references "terror/terrorism" 5 times as as a justification for this war.  The lesson here is that if we fracture to system of order, very bad things start to happen.
    So we will hold Russia accountable.  We will demand reparations for lifting sanctions.  We will demand the turning over of war criminals for prosecution.  We will employ national security mechanisms to find and arrest anyone who supported Russia's war outside of the laws of whatever country they are in.  And we will do so within the defined limitations of the law.
    Anything beyond that is a revenge fantasy that serves no real purpose in discussing this war.  Now are we able to continue on in peace and harmony?
  13. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I haven't said that. I said that switching over the supply from Russian uranium rods to another supplier takes more time than switching over from Russian gas or oil. The former needs a lengthy certification process, while the latter just needs an adjustment in the process.
    There is an oil processing plant in East Germany which was basically the end of a Russian oil pipeline. They will now be delivered from the West. They had to retool their process, but AFAIK that didn't take that long.
    Russian made reactors use a hexagonal fuel rod design (IIRC) that is unique to them. You'll need to find another supplier who will make them, and they need to be certified. With nuclear fuel rods, a quite sensible precaution. No one is going to insure a plant without that.
    Yes, and now it is practically 0% and still all predictions say that we will get over the winter.
    Prices will stay high, no doubt. I haven't said otherwise. But we want to get rid (or let's say: 'use much less') of the stuff anyway. So although quite harsh in the short term, this is good in the long term. A very unpopular opinion, I'm sure.
    I doubt that we will get back to pre-war prices at all. There's still global warming going on (which is the bigger crisis unless it's solved by nuclear winter) and this war is 'just' accelerating the necessary changes which we would have to do anyway.
    That may sound a bit cynical with all the suffering evolved, but those are some of the consequences of this conflict IMHO.
  14. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Interesting stuff from Le Monde :
    "The political apathy of the Russians, long favored by the power, is put to the test by the announcements made by Vladimir Putin. Like on a WhatsApp discussion between inhabitants of a small town near Moscow, where we usually discuss everything, except politics.
    In the local residents' chat, reality knocks on the window: "It's not about panic, just my nephew... His last leave has been canceled, now we can send him there at any time. “My uncle has just had a heart attack, but we made him sign a paper assuring that everything is fine. And there, at work, they were asked to bring their military booklet! “My husband has been stressing about this case for two weeks trying to figure out if he will. Frankly, it's going to be genocide on both sides. »
    In the exchanges, one word keeps coming back: “war”. Taboo for seven months, removed from the official vocabulary, and which now flies from house to house. With him, the very clear feeling of switching into something new. For thirty years, in villages without pipes, in cities with broken pavements, a mantra served to justify everything: “At least there is no war…”
    On thousands of other chats comparable to those of the anonymous small town, on social networks, for the less cautious, it is the same explosion of sourness: “Where are our famous supersonic weapons? “I am not ready to die for the ruins of Donbass or for Putin” “Let the deputies go there first, remembering to take their children living abroad. Because me, during my service, I mainly learned to wash the floors. »
    For such messages, in recent weeks Russian citizens have been prosecuted."
  15. Like
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from benpark in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They have and probably the cause are operational concerns (logistic problems like integration of new equipment and replacements, flank security, defining goals, etc). Which is to say real world military operations do not quite work like operations in Gary Grigsby's War in the East.
  16. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from DavidFields in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They have and probably the cause are operational concerns (logistic problems like integration of new equipment and replacements, flank security, defining goals, etc). Which is to say real world military operations do not quite work like operations in Gary Grigsby's War in the East.
  17. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry, but this is wrong. Oil is no problem at all. Gas will (mostly) be done by the end of next year. Nuclear might really take longer because the uranium rods need to be certified. You cannot just switch the supplier. AFAIK, this takes quite some time.
    Excluded is of course Hungary...
    That's the power of capitalism. If something is expensive, someone will make (more of) it until it is cheap. Getting from here to there might be bumpy, though.
    The EU will pay for that in the long run, no doubt. There will be endless grumbling and moaning, but in the end we will all be better off.
  18. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Cast The Capt out as insufficiently pure!
     
    The revolution always eats its children.
  19. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    All war is negotiation and sacrifice - all war is negotiation with sacrifice.
    So Putin dropped the 'mobilization' boogey man, kinda.  And of course threatened nuclear war without saying it...oh my.
    Well I think Phase 2-3 of this war were positioning for endgame - Russia's point "Imma gonna take the Donbas, cause that was what I wanted all along...well that plus Kherson and everything I did not lose in Phase I".  And Ukraine's counter-point "No you are not."  This could have gone on for some time longer but clearly things are coming to a head in Moscow.
    So I think this is endgame.  What does a soft-mobilization/slightly-louder-threat-of-nuclear-war-based-on-bizarro -annexation-internal-legalities-that-no-one-else-is-going-to-recognize-for-a-century, really tell us?
    - Well first it tells us that Russia is desperate. Putin and the gang are opening themselves up to significant political exposure here.  You average Russian may, or may not, have actually supported this war but they all had the luxury of staying out of it - changing that is a major shift.  We are already hearing rumblings in opposition, who knows how far that will go; however, we do know that Putin would not have pulled on this lever if Russia was winning.  This is a pretty clear sign of losses and the impact it is having on his war machine.
    - Next, this is not an escalation, it is desperation.  This is an attempt to preserve military capability in the field and re-assert a status quo, not raise enough forces to re-take Kyiv.  In short, whatever the UA is doing, it is working very well.
    - Russia is clearly on the defensive, and likely will stay there until this is over.  Throwing 300,000 conscripts in any variation is not going to create offensive military capability - unable to create positive decision, so at best negative and null (i.e. denial).  This signals a shift into a strategy of exhaustion, annihilation for the Russians has left the building.  This puts Russia a couple rungs above an insurgency as far as military strategy goes.  They are going to try and dig in an hold on to what they have until the other side gets tired.
    -  We could be heading towards a nuclear decision point.  The battlefield use of nuclear weapons has always been a grey area in warfare.  It is an escalation but the West and USSR went around and around on whether one could have a limited nuclear war.  I suspect that Putin might be thinking about testing the norms around this by declaring all the territory they have taken as "mother Russia" - we freakin knew that Russian doctrine and law were useless to refer to because autocrats just move the goalposts.  So I suspect the redline is the Crimea, and maybe somewhere in the LNR/DPR.  If the UA push that far, we might actually see Putin try to go that way - I say "try" because he 1) might already be removed from power by then, or 2) someone will put a bullet in his dome before they drag Russia into a doomsday scenario.  If one does go off well it won't be the end of days, tactical nuclear weapons can effect a couple grid squares and were designed for heavy armor concentrations at Fulda - this war is far to spread out.  We will likely lose our minds in the West and the response will be key to what happens next. I suspect conventional escalation or other options to send a strong signal to Russia that they will be the first country in history to lose a strategic nuclear war.  Regardless, if Russia employs a nuclear weapon, we are off the map, beyond the Cuban Missile crisis; however, I also still think this actually happening is a long shot.  For those in Europe and NA, I would not start getting too excited until strange looking Patriot systems start being deployed around major urban areas and/or in the Canadian north.
      So the biggest question on the table is - "what does endgame look like?"  This is in the weird political space as militarily Ukraine has demonstrated that given time they can likely retake everything back to the pre-2014 border - the question is do they want to?  Do they need to?  Putting emotions to one side - I suspect the West will be putting a lot of incentives for Ukraine to push to 2014 borders and then stop.  Why?  Well some possible reasons:
    - DNR and LNR are burned out wrecks with large sections of the population that clearly do not want to be Ukrainian, so let em go.  Ukraine gains nothing but a couple Northern Ireland scenarios if they re-occupy, that and a massive reconstruction bill.  Walk away and wish them luck with their sugar daddy.
    - Crimea.  Here we could see "neutral and open" tossed around a lot more.  Without Sevastopol Russia is pretty much cut out of the Black Sea, and if they are out of the Black Sea they are out of the Med.  If Russia is going to go nuclear, it will be over Crimea...and to this guy over in NA, it is not worth it.
    - Ok, so that is the unthinkable "bad", what is the carrot?  Fast tracked entry in NATO - this entire bullsh#t goes away if Ukraine has Article 5 to lean on, because that is simply too big to fail for the West.  Hell Ukraine is already armed better than most NATO nations, with NATO STANAG equipment.  Their training is US/UK standard and I have no doubt we have already built most of their ISR infrastructure.  Ukraine in NATO next week is a clear win for the west. 
    Next, entry into the EU.  Bureaucratic nightmare that it is, this would cement Ukraine into Europe economically and set them up for post-war success.
    Last, a reconstruction plan to rival Marshal.  The West commits hundreds of billions to turn Ukraine into a shining example of what our money can do as a counter-point to China's game these last 15 years or so.
    As to Russia?  Well it made its bed. Sanctions stay in place until 1) reparation deal is cut and in motion, 2) war crimes of all sorts are investigated and prosecuted and 3) Putin regime is gone enough that we can pretend whoever replaces it is clean...or clean enough. If Russia refuses any of the above, well enjoy being a Chinese satellite with a Cold War Soviet standard of living and we will see you again in 30 years - we will risk manage Russia, we are good at that in the West.
    So What War?  Well UA will likely focus on taking bights out of Donbas just to ensure 300,000 Russian conscripts don't feel left out.  They will re-take Kherson and push south over the Dnipro up to the Crimean border.  And Melitopol, cut that stupid land bridge and box the Russians and their cronies back to where they were before this nonsense started.
    Anyway, crazy days and keep your head up because it might get crazier.
     
  20. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Personally I feel sort of the same as both of you.
    The line is imo when you generalize whole people as rapists by blood / barbarics. And especially if you then include all Arabs in it and say that Israel is tackling the root problem as a direct reply to someone mentioning killing children / reporters.
    And I'll gladly take vacation to call out such statements.
    Anyway I've said what I needed I'll leave it at that. 
  21. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I send you a PM because that is a better place. There was no medical diagnose in my statement though.
  22. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I guess it means something like 'tulip sucker', with sucker in this case referring to blowjobs 🤣
  23. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Please don't lock the thread before we get the explanation of what "Tulpenlutscher" means
  24. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well ethnical cleansing / genocide surely isn't something you hear me suggesting. But I have an idea: 
    * Abolish both states.
    * Call the country Israel/Palestine and reverse the order yearly. The one who goes first gets decided by a coin toss.
    * Take Finnish law and put it in place (no apartheid, every religion has same status, etc)
    * Have UN German troops police the country for a decade

    Anyway I don't need to suggest no fix in order to recognize that someone calling all Arabs/Russian as 'root problems' is ... not in a good place to put it mildly.
  25. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So what is the root of the problem? Arabs? Russians? And you have a final-solution in mind for that root cause?
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