BletchleyGeek

Unless extreme conditioning is in play - e.g. Imperial Japanese Army kind of conditioning - very few military forces ever fights to the last man and bullet when they are aware their LOC is cut. And usually out of necessity - like at Isandhlwana where the British didn't have many options - rather than conviction. I think Steve's master plan needs to play the tactical psychology card. That is 1) make an example that resistance is futile (everyone dies and little to no damage is done to the enemy), and 2) present an off ramp for enemy soldiers to flee or give up. The point is not to kill heaps of them, but to have them stop fighting. The Russian approach in Mariupol seems to take the exact opposite approach.

The "a couple thoughts" that Mr. Schlottman was offering are worth reading re: that map. I must say the map doesn't make a lot of sense from taking a look with Google Maps at how major roads are laid out. Not sure what's the weather been in the area, but the majority of routes crossing the border from the region south of Brest into Ukraine are unimproved dirt roads. Those will be good for the first couple tank/ifv platoons that roll down them, and a pigsty afterwards. There are only two all weather roads, one running parallel 3-4 kms from the Polish border, and another farther in, where the first big town/strong point is Kovel. I guess that's why there are two fat arrows on that map. Also, the only activity I can find of the Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian brigade dates back to 2016.

From NASA FIRMS via @OSINTtechnical: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1505766517249646594?s=20&t=F7q4CLsxqFhbza96Y8W0Fw Quite a few fires centered in the Bucha-Irpin area, and also east of Brovary.

Biden is travelling to Europe this week for a NATO summit. I am pretty sure that they are going to be "wargaming" the options available. I have been reading a bit about this "NATO peacekeeping mission" the Polish government wants to bring up at the summit https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-propose-ukraine-peacekeeping-mission-nato-summit-says-pm-2022-03-18/ which sounds more like a thought bubble than anything else https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/03/20/magierowski-on-nato-peacekeeping.cnn The interview above was the clearest public statement I have read/heard about so far. Also: a bit of a misnomer. Wouldn't it rather be a "peacemaking" rather than "peacekeeping" mission? Personal opinion of mine: the Polish government at times seems to be to be quite klutz when it comes to apply logic.

Signalling that they have the capability. Who knows how many of these they actually have? We may see more "stunts" as negotiations get more serious.

On a second thought, that video is not that different from the poignant art produced by North Korean illustrators

There will always be extremists, but I don't think that the Ukrainian society that comes out of this will be an 'ethnic state'. If anything, it will reinforce their sense of being at a "border" between civilisations. How will that play out is anyone's guess? And I say "civilization" because I am pretty sure Russia won't be the same after this. Who makes these videos? A humorist? They should have put angel wings on those parachutists jumping over Warsaw...

The latest ISW update also showed two parallel deep penetrations from the Russian southern abteilung (the German word is perfect) north of Mariupol.

That was a great find @keas66, thank you! I think many concerns around where this conflict may be going are justified. I would like just to share a few thoughts of mine on this. Today I had an online chat with a wargaming friend based on Seattle. As we were catching up, it became apparent to me that he was quite anxious and worried about the implicit threat posed by Putin declaring Russian nuclear forces to adopt a "higher" degree of readiness. He lives close to the water, across the huge US Navy shipyards in Puget Sound. An obvious target for an SS-25 Topol or worse. You don't need to "play" a bit with this little thing https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ to be worried. That somebody implies a threat to start a nuclear war is something sure to attract attention and focus the minds. But to what end? Is he really going to trigger the end of the world (for Russia definitely would be the end of the world, and probably cripple our cities and economies for generations too)? Now, let's say that you're leaving a bar in Long Beach late at night, walking to your car, and the another car stops and some dude walks out with a gun and puts it to your head (real story from a good friend from LA). Do you give them your wallet? Or you turn around, look into his eyes and dare him to shoot? In the real world story, obviously my friend gave away the wallet. Did that make them a coward or a really smart person? I want to think it was smart because all the incentives were for that gunman to shoot at them if they weren't cooperative: there was no real possibility of retribution or "negative reward" if they were uncooperative and finished off. Putin isn't even pulling out the gun, or putting it on top of the table, or anything like that, more like giving an order to "make sure that there are no birds roosting in the launchers, and every vehicle has their battery". Which given what we're seeing in Ukraine at the moment, it may already be a tall order. He also doesn't know for sure how good the US anti-ballistic missile defence systems are. He doesn't know how effective the US and British SSBNs can be at making sure that him and anyone related to him would have a horrible death within 15 minutes of the first Russian ICBM taking off. What he knows is that if he started a nuclear war there would heaps of "negative reward" flowing the way of everyone, and first and foremost his people. Maybe he doesn't give a turd about his people, but I am pretty sure he gives one about his legacy. And what a great legacy would be to have all major cities in Russia become graveyards, and Siberia gingerly colonised by the Chinese in 30 years or so. Sure, you have also ruined Europe, the US and anybody else they're targeting, but not really a great legacy, by any reckoning. Maybe he's a psychopath and doesn't give a damn about his legacy or anything or anyone else. Then we're already royally screwed guys, and we should all check out the NUKEMAP app to see where we should be relocating. Unless someone produces a time machine from their garage (John Kettler?) and goes pays a visit to Harry S. Truman to convince him to forget about the work at Lost Alamos, and give the go-ahead for Operation Olympic. Let me consider another counterfactual, and a more serious one. Let's go back to 1938. And now let's imagine that the French and British tell Mr. Hitler to sod off, and he goes and launches a "special operation" on Czechoslovakia. Without straining credibility, let's consider that the 1938 Wehrmacht gets hopelessly bogged down trying to break through the Czech fortifications at the border (which were quite serious). Let's imagine those Panzer I and Panzer II being taken out by the same anti-tank rifles and guns from Brno that then armed the Nazi war machine early in World War 2. Would have the Third Reich then "escalated" and launched an attack on Poland (or France)? Nope. Can Czechoslovakia counterattack and go all the way to Berlin to force a German surrender? Nope. I think we're right now at an scenario very much like the counterfactual above. The blatant difference with respect to 1938 is that Mr. Hitler's alter ego now has the means to "escalate" or to credibly threaten with escalation. But giving the appearance of having the means for an escalation doesn't mean that those means 1) are ready or 2) they are really willing to use them.

The Wikipedia entry on the Switchblade does read like the fact sheet you would find in an aerospace fair. But also AeroVironment has decades long track record in delivering quite robust UAVs over a great variety of environments (e.g. Ingenuity, the little helo-like robot NASA got flying over Mars was the result of a partnership with JPL and NASA Ames).

This article (via an Indian think-tank) is quite didactic https://www.vifindia.org/article/2020/december/04/why-drones-turned-the-tide-for-azerbaijan-an-analysis From the piece Another point very conspicuous to note is the near absence of anti-drone weapons in the arsenal of the Armenian air defence forces. Following points are made as regards anti-drone arsenal:- Drones throw two challenges to conventional air defences:- Their RCS is generally too small to get detected by conventional air defence radars be it early warning, fire control or missile guidance radars. Being extremely low-cost, these demand low cost kill means. There is no point of killing a few hundred dollars drone with a million dollar missile. This ratio becomes further skewed if the opponent is a swarm drone, off which the best of SAMs worth millions can take out only a few. RCS=Radar Cross Section The thinking of countries like India, Indonesia, Vietnam is interesting to follow, as it offers the point of view of those that need to "buy smart". @LukeFF is the flight sim expert, but a ground attack Sukhoi with its cannon could be quite effective to take down bigger drones like the TB2.

Let me second that, the insights on how Russian "democracy" functions were very good.

Thanks @Haiduk, so that was evening Kyiv time?

Artillery, SAM and C2/signals vehicles and equipment I think. They are literally man portable mini cruise missiles (the 300 model, not sure about the 600 model). I wonder about target acquisition: probably the Ukrainian army will be getting a live feed from US remote reconnaissaince and observation assets.

Heavy fighting in Izyum Russian MOD claims they have taken Izyum, some Ukrainian media outlets claim that Russian force suffered heavy loss and lost their commander. The video above does not clearly show whose vehicles those are. The voices seem Ukrainian though.

NASA FIRMS taking stock of the extent of the devastation in Mariupol If you put together all those red cells, the proportion of the city covered is quite significant. If we wanted, we could totally take a look of what's going on from the other side. We just need to tune into China's Central Television, who have the one and only (?) journalist embedded in the Russian Armed Forces (I think somewhere near Mariupol). Regarding actual status on the ground, I think that even resources like liveuamap have trouble catching up with developments. As far as I understand, everybody considers Mariupol to be "encircled" but liveuamap shows clearly that there is still a corridor of terrain that isn't "controlled" by the Russian forces. Probably that terrain is under heavy fire and generally not safe to traverse during the day, but I wonder if we're just trying to simplify a very complex situation in a way that fits our preconceptions for "siege" or "battle". BTW, in the FIRMS image above, the suburb of Kalmuyskiy (47.15485236945717, 37.607600632082026) lies right at the gap in the liveuamap and seems to have been hit pretty hard. I guess that the Russian forces are trying very hard to take it over, and close the ring around Mariupol for a fact.

Thanks for the video @Haiduk, the secondary explosions if the Buk look quite spectacular. It also looks like the 152mm barrage hit the building with the blue roof that the Buk was firing from behind

Zelenskiy is being reported on several media outlets as "admitting that Ukraine will never join NATO because we see now that door us has been closed to us". Given the very poor track record of Ukrainian-English translators so far, see the "all casualties are KIA" confusion, I am unsure exactly who was the subject of "closing the door". It does sound like a concession to me - when translated. I would appreciate a transcript from the locals on this thread. Regarding the counteroffensives etc. it was obvious on the situation maps made by people like JominiOfTheWest that the Ukraine Armed Forces were concentrating west and east of Kiev. A couple days back our fan of Jomini decided to edit out Ukraine units from his maps upon request. So I guess that a counterstroke against the Russian "pincers" on Kyiv was literally written on the wall. The movements in Kherson are a surprise, didn't see any new UKR large units identified there. The 53rd Motorised Bde, and 17th Tank Bde were the two large units reported in the area, and had been so for a while.

And we were just wondering... The timing of events is uncanny, is there a race going on?

Given the prudence of the Russian Black Sea fleet seems that the naval command in Sevastopol (?) isn't sure of their destruction either. I had assumed wrongly that all UKR had was refurbished Soviet era cruise missiles. Very little data on those missile systems - naturally - but if Indonesia wanted to buy some they must be quite good value for money.

And that's Tiananmen Square level material (if real, ofc).

Great snippets, all of them very interesting @Haiduk. The perceived redeployment in the south perhaps is best understood in the context of the apparent move of the Black Sea Fleet to menace Odessa. Whether is that just a feint to keep UKR forces pinned down to Odessa, or the long awaited amphibious operation, I guess we will see. If UKR had anything like Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles I don't think we would get to see that naval ballet.

BuzzFeed is carrying a story about this https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/russia-missile-attack-yavoriv-ukraine-american-fighters

This war is wild BTW, last night strike hit hard the barracks (?) of international volunteers, or so it seems. Testimonials of alleged survivors are surfacing on social media and a Swedish newspaper.

Interesting to hear about the interceptions and the target's actual distance to the border. The missiles that got through seemingly did significant damage.