melm
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Posts posted by melm
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16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I heard the tail end of some interview with a Russian Orthodox someone or other (might have been an academic). The question was put to him about if this war is an affront to God, or something like that, and he said yes. The interviewer then asked why the Russian Orthodox Church hasn't said ANYTHING about this war? His answer was the usual "I don't know, you'll have to ask them".
The problem for the Russian Orthodox Church is that they are bought and paid for. Putin lavished them with all kinds of graft, social stances (anti-gay in particular), and repression of competing religions. In exchange they were to tell all Russians that in order to get into heaven you have to love Putin.
I'm being snarky, yes, but only by a tiny bit. This was the deal and if we see the Patriarch of Moscow reverse course then it is a sign that Putin is done. However, as of right now, the war in Ukraine is justified because they have Gay Pride Parades:
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/moscow-patriarch-stokes-orthodox-tensions-war-remarks-83322338
For those of you who didn't notice this in 2014, there was a schism because of Russia's invasion. Most Orthodox Ukrainians rejected being associated with Russian Orthodox Church, but some stuck with it. The above article indicates the holdouts are changing their view.
Steve
There is more than bribing. In 2018, Constantinople Patriarch granted Ukranian Orthodox Church "independence" status, which is objected by Russian Orthodox Church(or Moscow Patriachate) because UKR Church is used to be supervised by the ROC(The see moved to Moscow in AD 1325). Then this leads to 2018 schism. I am not suprised to see ROC agrees with Putin's action because they may regard UKR Church as a separarist.
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A pickup maybe?
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8 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:
This seriously has to be a figment of somebody's imagination. How in the hell can they confidently identify formations like this?
Check 19/. He posted his sources for the map. I didn't check the accuracy but his one is quite popular.
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The brigade facing 20th CAA doesn't seem in good situation.
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6 minutes ago, Vic4 said:
Attempting to tread very lightly here:
@LongLeftFlank: Another item for your list.
- A wildcard that I feel is being relatively ignored but is unfortunately entirely plausible is that a “Russo-sympathetic” American administration could be in the picture in 2025. If Putin is able to drag this out in some fashion for that long (war crimes and sanctions be damned), Ukraine, NATO, and the general sense of unity we currently have could be disseminated catastrophically. …Democracy is a wonderful thing, but it sure can bite you in the — .
Thoughts on that anyone?
Russo-sympathy administration? No. US may not deeply involved in the conflict, but such administration couldn't happen. Maybe one will be labelled as "Russo-sympathizer" but that's just some political stuff.
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Once again, I will predict it here and we will see if events prove me right:
1. In the south, Russia will shortly begin digging in along a line Kherson - Vasilivkya (final stretch of Dnepr river), then northeast across the steppelands to Izyum/Kramatorsk (south of Kharkv). That means not a WW2 style continuous trench line/mine belts, but a chain of firebases and hedgehogs overwatching key junctions and towns and the barren no-mans land in between.
2. They continue the cruel, militarily pointless bombardments of the northern cities and limited probes to keep Ukrainian forces in contact and distracted, but will not continue their deep and costly advances.
3. For the same reasons of diversion, they will continue ops against Mikolaev.
4. Once they feel they've secured the southern line described above, including securing towns and destroying/dispersing regular UA formations behind their lines, they will propose an immediate 'humanitarian' cease fire, eagerly seconded by the Chinese (and probably India and some African states).
5. The Ukrainians of course refuse at first, demanding full and complete withdrawal etc. That will be conceded in the north but not in the south. The Chinese and their 'nonaligned' bloc, again, lean hard on Zelensky to accept a 'temporary' stop line, dangling generous offers of billions in reconstruction aid (to be built by Chinese firms, natch).
6. The Ukrainians again refuse with indignation, but once they get a bloody nose or two and realize UA's offensive capability isn't in fact sufficient to eject the RA from the south, absent Western intervention, they grudgingly acquiesce to a cease fire that includes full and immediate RA withdrawal from the entire area Kiev-Kharkiv.
7. Dig dig dig, both sides. Long drawn out talks about the occupied southern zone and 'reparations' provide the likes of Macron and the Germans ample opportunity to posture and virtue signal, but go nowhere in substance.
And in 2023, a Chinese monitored "referendum" in those oblasts indicates -- surprise! -- a solid majority prefers 'independence' a la Luhansk, Donetsk.
Anger, grief, rage against 'betrayal' on the Ukrainian side but the bourgeois West has frankly lost interest. War is over, good job Ukes, but don't start it up again. And sorry no, you can't be in NATO cuz nuclear war.
8. In spite of a terrible period of economic disruption (with brutal repression, brain drain etc.), Western sanctions are gradually evaded with the active connivance of China, Iran, Turkey and any number of other double dealers (Greece, Hungary.... Italy?) smelling money. Russia is a resource economy and we're in an up cycle for demand.
9. Putin spins all this as a victory at home, claiming that the vital Crimea 'land bridge' and the rest of 'Russian majority' Donbas is all he ever wanted all along. Russians who suspect differently keep their mouths shut; most ordinary folks just choose to believe it and tune out Western 'propaganda'.
10. In the respite, RA absorbs the many bitter lessons learned and overhauls its forces, equipment and doctrine, with a more defensive mission given that it now has a furious enemy state on its borders. Recall too, Russia still has 3x Ukraine's population (+ Belarus).
TL:DR, I don't think the UA has the wherewithal, even with full mobilization, to eject the RA from any territory of limited size it puts a serious effort into holding.
My prediction. It gives me no joy, Ukrainian friends, but I haven't seen evidence yet that I am wrong.
Very probable except 5 and 7. I doubt Chinese government will urge Zelenskyy to accept Russian terms. The most probable stance is asking both sides(perhaps all sides that are interested in the crisis) to 'talk'. An useless stance to improve the situation but I bet China will keep such stance.
And it's highly improbable that China will involve in the separatists' referendum because it has its own separatists' problem too. That's why it keeps claiming that China supports the territory integrity of Ukraine.
The war actually is undermining China's economic interest as China is Ukraine's largest trading partner. However, China won't condemn Russian invasion as long as it needs Russian gas and if Sino-US relationship keeps deteriorating.
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10 minutes ago, Cobetco said:
Yup, the Greeks have a bunch.
Are they willing to give them up? They may still have tension with Turkey.
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2 hours ago, Sarjen said:
I can't recall if this was already posted. There is a leaked report from a former FSB employee but confirmed by Bellingcat et al. . Interesting TL;DR : We were not told that an invasion was going to happen, we did our analyses for the scenario that a meteor would fall on Russia. We did not calculate the sanctions of the west. We don't have anything left to occupy Ukraine after we win the war. Syria forces will be abandoned bc they don't get resupply enough.
And the translation to english:
Perhaps it's written by 'former' FSB employee. But it contains no other information besides the public. The rest is just some deduction.
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12 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:
This was the strategy used in Grozny, and it is the strategy that Putin is obviously switched to now. First is the shock and awe phase, remind citizens how costly its going to be in terms of innocent deaths. Once the army is ready they will roll in behind huge artillery bombardments and turn things in to a Berlin or Stalingrad style siege. Level a block in a hurricane bombardment, push the infantry forward to secure it. Bring down artillery to stave off a counterattack. Repeat as necessary. By the time the Russians are done there will be nothing left.
And to be honest this isn't something that the Ukrainians can solve with Molotovs and NLAWs. They need dedicated manpower, smart flexible and asymmetric planning, and some heavy arty of their own wont hurt. The way to shortcut this plan IMO is to get in amongst the artillery and either wreck the guns or force them to constantly reposition. But if the Russian concentrate their arty, they can concentrate AD, concentrate CAP coverage, concentrate for a security perimeter....
Now if Ukraine had a few of those F-35s that supposedly could penetrate a contested air space, maybe some HARMs, it would be different. But as long as Russia can keep the conflict asymmetric they have an advantage (in the short term, this isn't a strategy to govern its a strategy to take and punish).
UAV targeting Russians' artillery seems a good counter-measure. So far, it seems the Russian air defense systems are useless against UAV raid.
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20 minutes ago, AlexUK said:
Given the apparent change of tactics of flattening cities, how can Ukraine 'win' this? Presumably Putin starts flattening, says Kyiv next if you don't surrender.
Peace agreement includes extended Donbas territory, land corridor to Crimea, and commitment to neutrality.
I'm bothered by this thought too. What if Putin surround Kyiv and ask the citizens to leave, otherwise, he'll flatten the city to occupy? What can citizens do? Horrible. I just feel so helpless.
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19 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Please explain? The Russian statement, right?
Not every statement that some Ukranians do not agree is Russian propaganda. There is WESTERN academic system studying on the history for long time, which is neither pro Russia nor pro Ukraine. If you want me to explain the history of Russia and Ukraine, their culture connection, and why Ukraine uses the trident symbol on their coat of arms, it will be very long. There are quite a lot publications on this topic, so don't worry about their views' independency. I can't imagine that they are all controlled by the Russians.
BTW, in fact, Czech and Germany has culture connection.
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29 minutes ago, kraze said:
Stop calling us cousins please. Ukrainians are completely unrelated to russians. We share no history nor culture with them.
Just because they occupied our territories on and off for 300 years before - makes us connected to then literally in the same way as Czechs being connected to Germans.
Sorry, this goes too far for me. It sounds like historical revisionism.
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50 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:
Sometimes I hate how ****ing unspecific and wrong the media can be. I've never heard in my life of a vacuum bomb. Why can you just google a weapon if you dont know what it is and use the right terms? Anyway is the infamous TOS? From the footage here, its pretty hard to tell. Could be an ammo dump or a fuel tank or a big air dropped bomb (FOAB?)
It IS the right terms. If you wiki the term, “Thermobaric weapon" entry lists three names including "vacuum bomb".
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25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
This window of opportunity is closing now Biden has said that he won't send troops to Ukraine. Poland 1939 revisited. A strong military gesture by the West could be decisive, but we're so easily intimidated. By standing on the sideline we more or less accept that Putin has the right to invade and burn down Ukraine. That's how he will see it at least.
I don't think Putin is as worried as most people here think.
Or maybe he does.
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1 hour ago, dan/california said:
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-28-22/h_ca197c5149c1d1b6ba767d5924a95ef4
The "classified" given to congress seems to have been fairly grim, which is worrisome since the US intel has been good so far. Or at least it was up until the minute the shooting started.
Definitely not that optimistic. The info may predict UKR will lose some territory(not all at least) and no ability to drive all the Russians to their home.
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I didn't know Steve got an economics degree.
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2 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:
We had a long seminar on the Ukraine crisis at my Uni today, if they post a video I'll upload it. (not sure, there were tech problems) Mostly it was everything a lot of you guys already know, and to a room of undergraduates. The crowd skewed older, 20-22, but much of the discussion varied from basic questions about historical context to ideologically driven questions about how to 'make the world a better place.' Most of the students had their hearts in the right place and brought some interesting questions.
Some interesting points that came up: Our resident expert on political economy had a lot to say about sanctions and Russia's future. He suggested that in the short term the Russian economy was heavily insulated from economic shocks. Its war chest was large and sanctions, while bold in concept, were not as extensive as the west makes them out to be. My previous predictions of doom (I believe I compared the Russian economy to Chernobyl) may have been a bit..... enthusiastic. He suggested that between access to Chinese markets, German reluctance to pull the plug on gas, and the watering down of SWIFT sanctions, the situation today isn't as bad as first appears. On SWIFT specifically the prof said that banking sanctions are all or nothing, if even one bank is excluded it will become the breathing tube for the rest of the economy. So long as banks in Russia are willing to play ball, and the west doesn't plug the tube, a single bank can float much of the rest of the system. More troubling in the long run, he suggested that this sanctions regime has probably destroyed the Russian economy for a generation, and a bad generation it will be. He pointed out, correctly, that Russian manufacturing lags behind the rest of Europe. This is because the ruble is artificially overvalued thanks to oil. More people buy oil, more people want rubles, more people want rubles, ruble price goes up. But Russian industry isn't up to the value of the ruble and that blocks foreign investment. What little foreign investment there has just died. China was building a new Jetliner with Russian companies. That will almost certainly die thanks to western sanctions. So will most east-west trade deals with Russian businesses. Companies will still want to make one of deals with Russia (we'll buy x mil bbls of oil at y price) but nobody will make long term deals with a country that is so economically self destructive all the time. The situation that Russia is facing is the same as Venezuela in a way. Tons of economic potential but nobody is willing to make a deal or help them out because of poor policy. The only exception is in Oil (Russia has more mineral wealth of course, but its biggest and most valuable is oil). Several problems with Russian oil. First sanctions will crash the price of Russian oil. Bad but not catastrophic. Second and more catastrophic, Russian oil is extremely expensive per bbl to pump. It and Canadian oil sands (said the professor) are the most expensive to pump in the world. Much of this is down to geography. Russian oil is remote, its really far from its customers, and its in some pretty bad terrain above the Arctic circle. Saudi Oil, on the other hand, is the cheapest /bbl. Third Russia will never pump more oil than it does today, in a broad sense. That is, the world is moving away from petroleum energy just like it did with coal and wood and dung. The single greatest 'sanction' the EU could impose is a law banning gas heating in new construction. And theyd be glad to do it, because its green. Between green energy and green cars and green cities, the world is going to use less and less oil. Russia will be the first to suffer.
Both the military historian and the Russian historian were pretty set that Ukraine would not last much longer without a fundamental revision in the conflict. The Russian historian was pretty convinced that Putin would not lose power to a popular movement in the short term, though he did note that the last two times regime change came to Russia it was after a failed war. He felt though that this conflict, while embarrassing, was not so bloody or onerous as World War One. More of a risk was the oligarch and military classes. They have less tolerance for failure and economic chaos. Putin, the thought, is more likely to drink polonium tea than he is to be gunned down in a dacha basement. Both also agreed that if the fundamental situation did not change, the Russian bear would eventually squeeze the life out of Ukraine. Though one student did ask a question that went mostly unanswered about parallels to Iraq. Hard to convey exactly what was said, I think that many of you would agree with most of the facts they laid out but some would definitely challenge the tone. Shame @The_Capt wasn't there to ask a more stark question about the possibility of an insurgency.
RE social media the group also pointed out something everyone should remember, lot of bad videos out there, lot of partial information. Everything we see here in this thread, on Reddit, on Twitter is very biased. Even if the person who filmed it didn't think so, there are strong perspective biases that were getting here. We maybe see 1% of whats really going on. 1% of 1%. Just because I havn't seen T-90s doesn't mean they arnt out there (plsplspls post every T-90 or BMP-3 vid you see, and if you see a wrecked T-14, put that pic in a mail and send it to me!) Just because we see a pattern evolving doesn't mean our analysis is based on good info. I dont mean to poo-poo everything were doing here or what were posting, I just want to throw in a little cold water and put things into perspective. It was a point, to be honest, that hit me close to home.
We also had a few Ukrainian students come and say a little bit. A former Yugoslavian professor also reminded the room that its all abstract theory and ideology when youre in a classroom in rural Ohio. Its a lot different when its your home, your family, your life on the line. That was a bit of cold water I think. I bring it up just so that we can all take a second to think about the real people, Russian and Ukrainian, who are dying over things were writing pet theories about. For us its info-tainment. For them its life and limb. Respect to those risking life and limb to bring us news and updates.
If I think of anything else worth mentioning I will, if they post the video link (again, there were tech problems they may not) I will. Mostly though the questions were pretty basic, but from the sense of the student's questions more generally it seemed like most were genuinely curious about the context of the conflict rather than the type whose already decided ahead of time. We also have a good bunch here though. I also have a vague feeling that Zoomers, for better and worse, are very open to new ideas. I dont want this to devolve in to a generational schlacht so Ill stop, I think Elvis barely survived this mornings slap fights.
Thanks for the post. I enjoy your seminar notes very much. It's my familiar academic taste when I was working on my PhD. I hold the same "not that optimistic" view with the professors you've mentioned in your note. And I am afraid that when Putin faces hard time, the war will go more brutal, which is the last thing I want to see.
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14 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Lukashenko's life expectancy is the same as Putin's, plus about ten seconds. That is only if he is lucky. If he isn't Putin will trow him to the wolves in attempt to save himself. either way way I see a lamppost in his future, and a rope.
Yeah. Your words perfectly explained why Lukashenko chose to side with Putin this time.
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7 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:
It came as quite a surprise to me Belarus is not independent at all, but a puppet state of Russia. I knew of course it had close relations with Moscow, but not that close. So we can safely assume Putin was behind the stream of refugees from the Middle East that flooded the Polish border some months ago.
Perhaps you missed Belarus massive demonstration in 2020, that Lukashenko was asked to step down. West of course supports the demonstrators. This is the turning point for Belarus to go east, instead of staying neutral.
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1 minute ago, Lethaface said:
That's looks like a 30story apartment complex, made out of concrete rebar, 5 floors are heavily damaged. It's not a small missile at least, I'm no expert so wouldn't know how big of a warhead that is. Kalibr is said to be 400-500KG HE.
You can check the tomhawk's video on youtube.
Its warhead is 450kg, smaller than Russian Kalibr.
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49 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Russian cruise missile hit the residential house on Lobanovsky avenue in Kyiv. The missile obviously targeted runway of Kyiv airport (Zhuliany), but instead hit the house nearby. Number of loses is unknown, emergency services can't reach destroyed storeys because it's too dangerous.
The video of hit
Second cruise missle was intercepted in the area of Kyiv hydroenergy plant dam
The destruction looks too small if the hitting projectile is a cruise missile. It must be something else.
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23 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:
Have you ever read the 1994 agreement? Ukraine got rid of the Soviet arsenal on its soil. From hindsight I call it a huge mistake. I was born in 1950 and listened to the old Soviet propaganda on TV. Putin wants to reinstate the Politburo in all Slavonic countries.
Yes, I know the 1994 memorandum. I am not so sure that it's still obligatory for each side. To be honest, it's already violated by the invasion. Any escalation can happen.
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7 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:
Turkey does not border Russia. On the other hand, Russia unilateraly scrapped the INF treaty and positioned Nuclear weapon in Kaliningrad capabale of striking within minutes all of Europe, and in the border or a NATO country. If the russian want security guaranties, lets talk also some for us Europeans
Turkey used to border Soviet and its position has already allowed the nuclear missiles having full effect.
This is actually what I loathe. One side wants to be safer than the other. Then escalation becomes inevitable. Perhaps that's because I am a generation born after cold war that I already feel safe.
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5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:
I didn't know there were US nuclear weapons in the Ukraine. US never objected to conventional weapons from the Soviet Union in Cuba.
Why nuclear weapons are not allowed in Cuba? And if UKR joins NATO, nothing stops UKR has nuclear weapons as Turkey already has.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages\P\E\PetroofKyivMetropolitan.htm
Here is a piece of entry regarding the key figure of the topic.