kevinkin

Are you serious?

I have never gone from disliking to outright love so quickly in my entire life.  

Are you serious?

Somehow I think that was disingenuous i.e. an indirect insult. 

Tux, I not did not take it that way at all. I enjoy the discussion. This war has created raw emotions. If I bring out those emotions, it's on me, not you. We are mostly all on the same team. I am neither a fool nor an opportunist. 
"The time for “staring” was between 2014 and 2022 and we failed on that at every turn across the entire political spectrum.  The reasons were pretty simple - you can’t just stare, you have to be ready to back it up, and no one in the US or entire western world was going to do that for Ukraine."
Funny, someone made my exact point for me; albeit without knowing they did so. Stare is just a metaphor for backing in up. And Ukraine was left out on a limb compared to our support to the ROC.  

Whatever happened to that guy. Did lose himself in a bottle Irish whiskey? No ill will, but has he disappeared for lack of creditability on news outlets? Maybe he made his money and decided the flak was not worth it. Or maybe when the ****er tucker went by by he did as well. 

https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-wants-his-hit-man-back-5bd759f8
Interesting story for the Sunday WSJ
Moscow seeks the return of a covert operative serving a life sentence in Germany, possibly in exchange for Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and others held by Russia
Shortly after his sentencing, authorities moved Krasikov from Berlin to an undisclosed high-security facility in Bavaria. There were fears that Chechen inmates in Krasikov’s former prison would try to kill him.
In his compound by the Danube River, Krasikov has the comforts afforded prisoners under German law, including daily walks in the garden and books in his own language. He has been reading Soviet-era novels glorifying the exploits of a Kremlin secret agent.
In the scheme of things, a sub plot. But we would all like Evan released. 
 
 

That seems a bit short to me. Maybe there is a non-military reason for bringing it up:
https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/ukraine
Perhaps some form of excuse to slow down operations? Not that the UA has to listen to Milley. 

Did you read the link?  From what I saw the headline was slightly misleading. Milley said “There's still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days' worth of fighting weather left, so the Ukrainians aren't done.”  I think it’s the headline writer who has turned that into “Ukrainian offensive could only have 30 days left”.  Not helpful, for sure.
In any case nobody knows how long the offensive has left and even Milley wasn’t trying to imply that his estimate is a hard-and-fast number.  We all know that wet weather (not the cold weather the article-writer seems hung up on) could force a halt due to mud.  If for some reason it doesn’t get too muddy then the weather may not halt the offensive at all.  And of course the offensive could run out of steam all on its own before the next 30 days are up.
 
Time passes. Things change. It’s a non-story. 

This aligns well with the west titrating support to Ukraine to avoid escalation and not really wanting to defeat Russia. Only time will tell if that view is correct. But at least voters should know what the end result would look like while not giving away state secrets. US leadership can't put two sentences together. John Kirby might be the only grown up in DC now. He is professional and making a name for himself. 

I was not talking about the the Ukraine air force:
https://www.barrons.com/news/russian-air-superiority-stopping-counteroffensive-zelensky-42a53972
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that Russian air superiority was "stopping" Kyiv's counteroffensive, complaining of the slow rate of both Western arms deliveries and sanctions on Russia.
Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration at criticism that Ukraine's counteroffensive has been too slow.
"If we are not in the sky and Russia is, they stop us from the sky. They stop our counteroffensive," Zelensky said, calling for more "powerful and long-range" weapons.
There was not time to equip and train Ukraine for the air warfare needed. That's why a no-fly zone should not be have been out of question early or now; nor would it precipitate escalation. We would be defending the skies over a nation we have given billions to and have killed thousands of Russian anyway. If Russia wants to escalate - Where's The Beef? 
Figuring out Russian is impossible and trying to define their line in the sand as well. Free nations can't let this ambiguity in the way while watching a nation like Ukraine evaporate. 
BTW the S400 and 300 are not at all feared within the USAF. Sort of like a annoying bug on a summer night. Could they get lucky - sure. But never in a tactically meaningful way. This comes from a family member in USAF intel. This is because the operators are idiots and the mechanics are broken down.
Ukrainians are dying because of our fear of escalation which why I brought up the subject of "speak softly; and carry a big stick" i.e. diplomacy and staring down the enemy. There are reasons we don't that are beyond the scope of this thread. 

Bingo. 

I agree. It has in the past too. 

There is no firm position. It is wise to keep all options open. A flexible way to win rather than a rigid costly attritional way. Diplomacy is a card in the deck, however it's never discussed. Diplomacy is not a indication of weakness. It is very often a sign of strength. Someone around here opinioned that Ukraine is better off now than before 2/22/22 because we finely titrated our support to Ukraine. Tell that to a mom. 
Was this war inevitable or avoidable? I will say it was avoidable given America's position. US soldiers have not fired a single bullet, but our tax dollars have. Unfortunately the Ivy leaguers in DC did not pay attention and stare down Putin because they just don't know how the world works. Or maybe they are using Ukraine as testing ground for our industry. Either way, it's sad. I advocate staring Putin, the mother ****er, down before the US has to enforce a no fly zone or put troops in theater. The Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff forwarded that the US could not break through the entrenchments with the level of combat support the the west has provide Ukraine. This madness is not a video game.  Ever heard the phrase guys "it's my way or the highway"? A nuanced approach to war at this scale kills more people, destroys infrastructure, and will leave wounds for generations. If we don't stare down nuclear blackmail the planet is toast anyway. Get it done USA.   

A humanist beacon speaks:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/win-long-war-strategy-counteroffensive
Note: there is no mention of the human toll. However I think is a good status report from their view of the situation e.g. 
 It is difficult to objectively measure Ukraine’s progress because only a few of the most senior Ukrainian military and civilian leaders know the actual strategic and operational objectives for the country’s offensives. But for outsiders viewing the war, the country’s progress might be measured in ground taken, Russian forces destroyed, progress toward placing Russian forces in Crimea at peril, and the extent to which Ukraine has persuaded Western governments it is succeeding. After two months, it might be stated that each of these goals is “in progress.”
Imagine if the US admin were different if the passage below would ever see the light of day in this humanist beacon of hope:
Offering Kyiv enduring support may not be welcome news to many Western politicians, given the upcoming elections in the United States and some European countries. But over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness. The next way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality and endurance is making sure they know the West is prepared to support them in their fight to defeat Russia and to offer this support in 2024 and beyond.

Great point. And I like the reference to maneuver warfare that few understand. Keeping the printing presses going in the name of liberty is vital for Ukraine. That requires marketing the voting public and is key to the war effort. POTUS has to wake up and get out of bed and make the case to US tax payers that there is a strategy with an end game positive to the US and our allies while keeping Ukraine whole. Otherwise, it's another embarrassing defeat for the US. In other words, the case has to made that the US can win the war with debased currency and prevent a draw. A draw would be humiliating to me and so many others who follow the conflict given the losses suffered by Ukraine. On this holiday weekend in the US we should raise our glass to Ukraine fighting a nuclear power with two arms tied behind their backs.  

A humanist beacon speaks:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/win-long-war-strategy-counteroffensive
Note: there is no mention of the human toll. However I think is a good status report from their view of the situation e.g. 
 It is difficult to objectively measure Ukraine’s progress because only a few of the most senior Ukrainian military and civilian leaders know the actual strategic and operational objectives for the country’s offensives. But for outsiders viewing the war, the country’s progress might be measured in ground taken, Russian forces destroyed, progress toward placing Russian forces in Crimea at peril, and the extent to which Ukraine has persuaded Western governments it is succeeding. After two months, it might be stated that each of these goals is “in progress.”
Imagine if the US admin were different if the passage below would ever see the light of day in this humanist beacon of hope:
Offering Kyiv enduring support may not be welcome news to many Western politicians, given the upcoming elections in the United States and some European countries. But over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness. The next way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality and endurance is making sure they know the West is prepared to support them in their fight to defeat Russia and to offer this support in 2024 and beyond.

Operation Cobra was preceded by around 600 Allied fighter-bombers attacking strongpoints and enemy artillery along a 270 m (300 yd)-wide strip of ground located in the St. Lô area. For the next hour, 1,800 heavy bombers of the U.S. Eighth Air Force saturated a 6,000 yd × 2,200 yd (3.4 mi × 1.3 mi; 5.5 km × 2.0 km) area on the Saint-Lô–Periers road, succeeded by a third and final wave of medium bombers. Approximately 3,000 U.S. aircraft had carpet-bombed a narrow section of the front, with the Panzer-Lehr-Division taking the brunt of the attack.
With a concentrated aerial bombardment using state of the art technology the UA would be in exploitation phase now. NATO supplied mech units gunning down those Russians that don't surrender. The numbers that do surrender would actually be the only impediment. Unfortunately, the UA does not have those cards to play. But the US does. The +/- of such an approach has been discussed to death already. It's like watching a loved one die because the cure is being withheld for the greater good.   
 

A humanist beacon speaks:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/win-long-war-strategy-counteroffensive
Note: there is no mention of the human toll. However I think is a good status report from their view of the situation e.g. 
 It is difficult to objectively measure Ukraine’s progress because only a few of the most senior Ukrainian military and civilian leaders know the actual strategic and operational objectives for the country’s offensives. But for outsiders viewing the war, the country’s progress might be measured in ground taken, Russian forces destroyed, progress toward placing Russian forces in Crimea at peril, and the extent to which Ukraine has persuaded Western governments it is succeeding. After two months, it might be stated that each of these goals is “in progress.”
Imagine if the US admin were different if the passage below would ever see the light of day in this humanist beacon of hope:
Offering Kyiv enduring support may not be welcome news to many Western politicians, given the upcoming elections in the United States and some European countries. But over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness. The next way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality and endurance is making sure they know the West is prepared to support them in their fight to defeat Russia and to offer this support in 2024 and beyond.

I have been wondering why ISW has the daily: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT.
Not that the information they provide is not valued. More about the wording of the headline. We know Russia is offensive. But isn't the UA on the offensive compared a year ago? I don't loose slept over it. But an oddity of language.
Anyway, there seems to be a movement within the armchair generals in DC that the west has to start preparing Plan B. That is, a long war. I believe this was always the intent of the proxy war once the UA held. And Plan B is in progress. Systems destined will be deployed years from now. This is a nightmare. More on strategy rather than tactics later.   
 
 
 

 

I have been wondering why ISW has the daily: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT.
Not that the information they provide is not valued. More about the wording of the headline. We know Russia is offensive. But isn't the UA on the offensive compared a year ago? I don't loose slept over it. But an oddity of language.
Anyway, there seems to be a movement within the armchair generals in DC that the west has to start preparing Plan B. That is, a long war. I believe this was always the intent of the proxy war once the UA held. And Plan B is in progress. Systems destined will be deployed years from now. This is a nightmare. More on strategy rather than tactics later.   
 
 
 

 

So, which is it: Russia sux therefore Ukraine doesn't need much help to kick the rotten door in, or Russia has a competent and professional military force which will require the entire civilised world fighting in a giant coalition to overcome.
Because it can't be both, and you can't take one preposition but apply the other deduction to it.

Amusing.
Last year people in this thread were saying exactly the same thing "lol, silly Russians. The Ukrainians will blow past that in a day." And yet, 11 months later, here we are.
I assume that even the Russians are professional enough to recognise that ditches across open paddocks aren't the only element of a defence line they are going to need. The funny thing about ditches under tree cover is that they're not very photogenic.
The tricky aspect of photographic analysis is interpreting what you can't see from the things you can. The Luftwaffe radar installation at Bruneval, for instance, was first identified because of long grass of all things. The Germans had ringed the site with barbed wire because they were worried about a ground attack or raid, or randos wandered up and having a butchers. The problem with barbed wire is that it's really hard to mow the grass in and around it, so over the course of six months or so a distinctive ring of tall grass sprouted up in the middle of an otherwise nondescript paddock in front of the manor house. "Now why would that happen" the British photo interpreters asked themselves, and working from there - and combining their suspicions with other intelligence threads - realised that they'd found a Würzburg , which led to Op BITING.
IIRC, a similar process was used to delimit the boundaries a number of the minefields in Normandy before D-Day.
Interpreting what you can't see based on what you can is also one of the reasons so much effort is put into studying enemy doctrine.
So, putting all that together, and relating it to 2023: we can see ditches. Great, in themselves they're no great shakes. But based on doctrine and experience over the last 6-12 months, what else should the Ukrainians expect on and around these new positions.
Ditches which are in the middle of open paddocks and perpendicular to the expected axis of advance are probably pretty dumb. The only thing dumber than that would be to assume that ditches in the middle of open paddocks perpendicular to the expected axis of advance are the only things the Russians are building.

Over at ISW we have some must read key take aways:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023
For example:
“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion. Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023.[1] Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that Russia may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine.[2] Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation than it currently can during the ”Special Military Operation.”[3] 
Hard to argue with that strategy. What a nightmare for the Ukrainian people. How can they rebuild under such a scenario? Build a school - Iranian drone destroys the school. Build a housing complex - Iranian drone destroys the complex. Have a baby - Iranian drone destroys the maternity ward. Regardless of where the lines fall, Ukraine will not be whole until it's under NATO's umbrella and anything thrown at them is shot out of the skies. 

Over at ISW we have some must read key take aways:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023
For example:
“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion. Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023.[1] Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that Russia may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine.[2] Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation than it currently can during the ”Special Military Operation.”[3] 
Hard to argue with that strategy. What a nightmare for the Ukrainian people. How can they rebuild under such a scenario? Build a school - Iranian drone destroys the school. Build a housing complex - Iranian drone destroys the complex. Have a baby - Iranian drone destroys the maternity ward. Regardless of where the lines fall, Ukraine will not be whole until it's under NATO's umbrella and anything thrown at them is shot out of the skies.