kevinkin
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Posts posted by kevinkin
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39 minutes ago, pintere said:
This screams just as much a "smoke and mirrors" campaign as the alleged buildup for a Russian attack on Kyiv earlier this year. What can a handful of Wagner mercenaries possibly hope to achieve even if they do cross the border?
Even if they do avoid being caught for any length of time, there’s not much they can do that could undermine the Ukrainian war effort that wouldn’t also trigger Article 5. Russia may have been able to employ them with the plausible deniability excuse in the Donbas and Africa, but I’m pretty sure such excuses wouldn’t work on the likes of Polish or Lithuanian soil.
While I am a lover of free expression, at some point a seasoned editor has say put this your back pocket use it in a much larger article on the subject.
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Speaking about the border ... this is borderline ridiculous.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-mercs-may-soon-infiltrate-214810246.html
Local media in Poland and Belarus have reported sightings of more than 100 Wagner mercenaries moving towards the Suwałki Gap—a thin strip of land that is the border between NATO members Poland and Lithuania, but is flanked by Belarusian and Russian land on each side.
Turn off the grill and head for the hills.
https://reason.com/2023/07/28/say-goodbye-to-permissionless-travel/
Gee, Russia can invade Ukraine and confiscate it's children and I won't be able to have pint in Ireland without giving away the family jewels?
Governments love having humans maximally searchable on databases, using digitized identification. For a long time, it was cranky Americans, with their stubborn notions of privacy and liberty—the right to move through life without showing papers to people with guns—who led the resistance against being answerable, of having to ask officials for permission. Now it's us pushing the rest of the "free world" toward having global biometric and banking information just a single government click away. Shame, that.
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Bit more:
https://www.barrons.com/news/zelensky-says-war-coming-to-russia-after-moscow-drone-attack-2895a4ea
Herman Kahn’s number .... 5?
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Just Sunday afternoon news:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-takes-dangerous-turn-war-213000031.html
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Thank the lord someone has balls:
https://www.barrons.com/news/ukraine-drones-damage-two-moscow-buildings-no-victims-mayor-e619c5ee
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What provides a better defensive position:
Hardened village
Dug in trench lines in grain fields
Or a combination of the two?
I think trench lines offer better overall survivability. Especially if they can't be hidden and not easy to spot from outer space. Villages are static targets. Hedgehogs for sure. But I would defend ground in a more flexible manner where the enemy can't discern where you are and use ambush tactics to delay and attrite the attacking force.
Many don't think the RA is capable of this. I am not convinced. Many are using stereotypical analysis that the RA are incompetent barbarians. They are prejudging future results based on the past. If the US thinks they can attrite Russia using Ukraine as a proxy, they are the incompetent barbarians. If the US thinks the UA can be taught western operational concepts in a period of mouths, they are delusional. If the US is just is just throwing the dice, hoping for the best and a Russian collapse, I want my taxes back.
If the UA is on the verge of a breakthrough - surge NATO surge. Let's stopping being so cruel to Ukraine. If this becomes a analogy of NK vs SK, please acknowledge those that predicted it a over the winter. There will be no winner or loser, just an uneasy peace and another Cold War. Much to NATO's and Ukraine's disadvantage. But the three martini lunch will prevail in DC.
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Continuing with the societal crack up theme:
https://www.the-sun.com/news/8719447/putins-troops-return-from-ukraine-violent-zombies/
We can pray that UA soldiers are being treated like professionals at the front and receive all the help the west can give when they return. But it has to be hard on Ukraine even under the best of circumstances.
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10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Oh for sure that's not a good sign of regime stability.
And how about this one. Not surprising but disgusting.
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Tangible evidence that Russia is cracking up?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html
Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country.
The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill.
As the proposal is currently framed, the new military companies would be armed and run by governors, but would obtain weapons from the Russian Ministry of Defense. They would ostensibly operate at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Russia has been fighting according to traditional doctrine, which goes back well into the Soviet days. IIRC the forward positions are about 10km in front of the MLR. The concept is that the forward positions are designed to attrit and constrict the attacker so that whatever hits the MLR is damaged and narrowly focused, or best case scenario not much gets to the MLR at all.
Russia has so far not shown much skill at fighting any sort of maneuver battle other than operational disengagement. I don't think it has the sort of quality and motivated forces remaining to conduct meaningful fighting retreats. Especially because units tasked with doing this are often going to be on their own with a very high risk of being cut off. See previous comments I made about Russian forces showing absolutely no willingness to risk being cut off.
Steve
If the UA knows where the Russian MLR is based on doctrine, it should be pulverized. I thought the RA was too stupid to maneuver? Or their static lines are too rigid. Outflanked etc.. We can't have it both ways. I grant the point that the UA does not have the means to pulverized the MLR or even the forward positions. They don't have the deep strike ability to cut off RA supplies. But that is on the US, not the the UA. Just hoping an army is going to retreat when challenged by an inferior force is not a sustainable plan. We all know soldiers fight more for their squads than their country. Why would the Russian kid not do likewise after basic training and political indoctrination? I think people in the Pentagon think too highly of the RA, while those here think to low. It's somewhere in between and we will have to wait and see.
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8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Therefore, I think it is quite likely that the MLR is of lower quality overall than the forward most positions. If the forward positions are 80% good and 20% crap, then I'd say the MLR is probably more like 50% good an 50% crap and the third line 20% good and 80% crap.
But where is the MLR? If that was known it could be defeated in detail by a western equipped and trained ground force regardless of crap vs good. Right?
While we think in terms of fortified lines of minefields and trenches, those could be an elusion and the MLR much more amorphous now that the UA is in the teeth of the RA defenses (on narrow frontages) set up in ambush positions along predictable lines of advance. Don't forget, friendly fire encountered due to FOW once into those defenses can stall forward progress. Not to mention trying to save causalities.
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32 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
Actually, i think Ukraine will be able to take territory, just not fast or with sweeping movements in the rear.
Well it's more about killing Russians and punishing their regime so they don't attack Ukraine again for generations. An acre here or and acre there is peanuts if the UA losses put them at a long term disadvantage in the number of people who can hold border defenses that will be in place regardless of the diplomatic outcome. Seems to me Ukraine will not be able to cut off Crimea with the force structure the west has given them. Or if they do, hold the line they obtain. Like I said above in a previous post, this direction is obvious and the UA has to rethink what they have and what they can do with it. They might be better off letting an over confident RA attack them and screw the offensive that US and the western media ill prepared them for. Even the POTUS said they are running out of ammo for God's sake. I don't think that was a sophisticated disinformation campaign.
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13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
I don't think Ukraine has the ability to clearly break thru those defensive lines.
I tend to agree. But I am reserving judgement since we don't have any idea of the losses suffered on either side. Nor do we know the state of either side's military nor civilian moral. This is an awful situation since neither Russia nor Ukraine will stop fighting until the the west and China take their ability to fight away. And that won't take place until late Fall. Fighting could extend into the 2024 US elections - yuck all around. I think we are staring a Korean-like situation in the face. A 2014 in the face, but with NATO on high alert. I think the US and the west have to take this kinetic war and turn it into a non-kinetic fight for Africa and South America and keep Russia at a distant arm's length. There is no growth in Russian or China. But plenty in Ukraine and the southern hemisphere. That's where my money would go.
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7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
They can pause and corrode more if they want once they find the going too tough in some sector.
Don't forget pausing is not good within the enemy's defensive network. The UA would be better off leaving any small tactical gains and returning to their own original lines if forced too. They need to break clear of those networks so their advantages can be brought to bear against the enemy in the open. That means operational gains where fully rested armed to the teeth exploitation formations can be directed beyond the Russian dug-in defenses into a pursuit toward a politically significant Russian holding.
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2 hours ago, danfrodo said:
And today, like every day, I ask "how brittle is RU???"
And every day it's a great question. The conventional "wisdom" is that the RA can trade space for time. Meaning they can fall back on somewhat prepared positions and find a unit here or there to counterattack UA penetrations. Attritional war of movement. I don't buy this completely. However, without the ability to attack on a board front or deeply using airpower, the UA can't impose it's will on their enemy across many KMs of front meaning Russian defeats are local and can be contained. There is also the issue that UA operational advances are predictable. They need to throw a change up now and again so the poorly led RA defender can't lay in ambush along channelized approaches and then run for the hills. So the question becomes not if the RA is brittle, but does the UA have the combat power and operational tools to take advantage of it? BTW, I am noticing a trend now that it's become about taking ground, not killing Russians. As many have stated, maneuver's first aim is to kill the enemy, then ground is fait accompli. My concern is if the UA has enough power to run down fleeing Russians before they can dig in like they did over the winter. Battles of encirclement are not in Ukraine's wheelhouse. However, threatening their combat services is. Sort of like the bouncer ushers someone out the door with a storm shadow to their head.
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1 minute ago, Bearstronaut said:
I fail to see an upside for Wagner in ****ing around in Poland
They would have to **** around behind plausible deniability. But the news that Poland and Lithuania might take prudent steps just means NATO is watching.
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All those brewing AFVs reminded me of the time CM introduced that graphic (CMAK or BB) all those years ago. If I recall, screenshots were withheld until the final release went out. Was a big surprise to players. Cool for a wargame; horrible for a real life friend of the west.
Tactically, when a company sized unit gets hit that hard, does the parent battalion have to halt operations until the situation is understood and medical service come in under protection of the rest of the parent formation?
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A few times a week now something comes up re: Belarus:
https://www.barrons.com/news/poland-lithuania-mull-shutting-belarus-border-over-wagner-be4c03e0
Poland and Lithuania are considering closing their respective borders with Belarus amid concerns over the presence there of the Wagner mercenary group, a Lithuanian deputy interior minister said on Friday.
"The considerations are real. The possibility of closing the border exists," Arnoldas Abramavicius told reporters.
Belarus has been hosting Wagner fighters following their short-lived rebellion against Russia's top military brass.
Lithuania repeatedly warned its Western allies that Wagner mercenaries could disguise themselves as asylum seekers trying to cross Belarus's borders with EU member states, or stage provocations involving refugees.
"It could be some groups of refugees, irregular migrants being transferred in order to cause some kind of unrest," Abramavicius said.
Poland's ruling party chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski said on Friday that Wagner fighters "are not in Belarus for fun".
"They are there to create various types of crises, primarily directed against Poland," Kaczynski said, adding that Poland has been building up its defence capabilities "so that these provocations, these activities, fail".
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A bit of the "Northern front" I wonder if Wagner just hanging out there is somewhat annoying to the UA when they are trying to breakthrough to the south?
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47 minutes ago, Astrophel said:
Weird remark. It sounds like something a russian might say. In the West there are armies of Public Relations specialists attempting to appeal to lazy journalists with pre-cooked narratives. There are editors who like to serve their subscribers with the type of story they are paying to read. However, there is no "setting up" of stories in the way the russian media operates. If you have ever worked close to western media - and I have - you would know that news value trumps everything. If the Ukrainians were losing in the way russian trolls are trying to sell we would know about it from western media - there is no conspiracy.
That's why my comment was in the form of a question. I am not passing judgement on the Times or claiming a conspiracy. But the media everywhere have agendas. It's up to the reader to get as many POVs as they can. The Times report was vague and needed another edit to be more useful. I understand this is breaking news which why I mentioned we need to closely monitor the situation. I thought the main effort would be closer to the Fall so the weather might help stymie Russian counterattacks. The Times report probably caught others off guard.
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NYT:
Main thrust of Ukraine’s offensive may be underway, US officials say
After holding back many units, Ukraine is now committing them, the officials said, but it remained unclear whether a full-scale assault was taking place.
Well that is as clear as mud.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive.html
“This is the big test,” said one senior official.
Administration officials and analysts said it might be only a matter of days to assess whether the attacks might be successful. “It will be clear soon whether this attack will allow Ukraine to change the current dynamic,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The United States and other Western allies have trained about 63,000 Ukrainian troops, according to the Pentagon, and have supplied more than 150 modern battle tanks, a much larger number of older tanks, hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles and thousands of other armored vehicles. All of those figures continue to rise, and much of that manpower and gear had been held in reserve until now, as Ukrainian forces fought to find — or create — a strategic vulnerability they could exploit. The American officials said most of the remaining reserves were now being committed.
Not sure what to make of the Times reporting. Are we being set up for a major let down? Why would the western media signal that this is the main effort before it was somewhat successful? At the very least, close attention to the news the next week will be important.
Another gloomy report:
https://news.yahoo.com/treacherous-forest-fight-threatens-hellish-083134685.html
Since the beginning of the counteroffensive on June 8, Ukrainian forces have recaptured about 300 miles of its territory, pushing their way through Russian mine fields and through brutal battles. If they were better equipped, they could have done even better, Dubina said,
“Remote observation video equipment, which costs around $15, could have replaced four soldiers we need to hold the surveillance positions during 24 hours on the front,” Dubina said. “To win this war we need to save all the lives of our soldiers. We could only do it by equipping our forces with more drones and technology. But we were waiting for months and months for the ammunition, until our commanders basically screamed for help—we lost time.”
Michael Bociurkiw, a senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, shared similar concerns about ammunition.
“Russian forces have poor morale and are poorly equipped, but the strategy they are using is unfortunately the gap in time to supply the ammunition. Given the situation Ukraine might begin to strike long-ranged missiles—whether the West likes it or not—at key military targets within Russian-occupied territory,” he told The Daily Beast, adding: “It is going to escalate.”
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Perhaps the combat is so deadly that basic things in field manuals and 90 day training can't be executed on the battlefield to make difference? In other words, any skilled Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been killed off to a point where all that is left are complete tactical idiots.
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:But for sure the last place you'll look for a vehicle is someplace without any tracks, so for sure seeing fresh looking ones should be explored.
Steve
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15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
A harrowing paper. "Statistics shared by Ukrainian physicians demonstrate that more than 70% of all Ukrainian combat casualties are due to artillery & rocket barrages ... which has resulted in significant polytrauma to multiple organ systems."
Not unexpected but tragic. Mass vs precision. Which will win in the end?
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by kevinkin
The RA can not be defeated by manpower. It can be defeated by firepower. The two are not the same. And DC has get off the beach and win before there is nothing left to fight for other than re-building contracts the results of which none of us will see in our lifetimes.