hcrof

Chief of GUR Kyrylo Budanov told in own comment to BBC Ukraine, that AD and GUR have been waiting Russian Tu-22M during a week in the ambush. The bomber was shot down on the range 308 km.
Budanov told some thing was used, deeply upgraded by Ukrainian enginners. Some OSINTers on the GUR video recognized interiror of S-200, but with complete changed equipment.
If true, looks like we could extend the range of missiles much more than 180-240 km of Soviet S-200V/M variants
PS. Ukraine hadn't latest S-200D system with range 300 km. USSR had a time to produce and deploy only several complexes of this type in the late 80th, and they were only in Russia and were withdrawn from service in the mid of 90th. 
Ukraine had S-200V with 180 km range and S-200M with 240 km range (255 km on AWACS planes). They were withdrawn from service in 2011-2013


https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3g58qn2jvgo?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2AfBzV1Eh_3H9H3O2ycqZbVOnB3WvjlLJhYLm5Fh4_3lVpdQphJ-pBTRU_aem_AdlSS5xReobUX09lrT-tHx8agDHkU2b3y0ncsvUX982bv2sWMivU_F_W5V7t4OaV4MVejUFjlmfwVQc283wuhDYP
 

On the topic of democracy (democracy indexes, democratic backsliding and the like) I can actually contribute with more than my typical "expert amateur's" opinion since poli sci is my academic background.
The Economist Democracy Index appears to be from 2021 (based on Norway's and Sweden's scores of 9.75 and 9.26 respectively). That year Switzerland dipped down below 9.00, which changed its colour in the map @The_Capt posted. It might be a colour vision thing @kimbosbread? Personally I know that my red-green colour vision is in the dumps, and I cannot make out any distinction what so ever between the colours assigned to 8, 7 and 6 in that map. That still places it as a full democracy though.
It should be noted for the Economist Democracy Index's use of the term "Flawed democracy" doesn't mean that it's not a democracy, undemocratic or the like:
In the case of the USA, this likely refers to issues such as voter turnout, gerrymandering, first-past-the-post and the virtual two party system, civil rights, etc. Emphasis on "likely" though, because the Economist Democracy Index is based on anonymous scoring from undisclosed experts, so no one can say with certainty what particular aspects influenced a state's scoring.
 
V-dem is in my experience the preferred democracy index, notwithstanding any personal bias (it's from my alma mater). What makes the most difference (going by the examples cited here) though is how you measure democracy: Visual Capitalist choses to measure shares of the global poluation as opposed to number of states. This leads to statistical oddities/misrepresentations of the scale of democratic backsliding, since states are entities: if say State A and State B have become democracies whereas State Z has become an autocracy, that's a net increase in democracy, regardless of the fact that State A & B only have a combined population of say 20 million whereas State Z has a population of 1 billion. That's how Visual Capitalist arrives at the dire conclusion of "2010 Democracy: 50.4% vs 2021 Democracy: 29.3%".
India alone being reclassed from "electoral democracy" to "electoral autocracy" is behind a not insignificant portion of that change: the number of people living in electoral autocracies increased by 1.76 billion between 2010 and 2021 (India's population today reaching 1.41 billion). The remaining net global population which has shifted from "liberal/electoral democracy" to "electoral/closed autocracy" is "only" 0.7 billion. I.e., one single country falling back into autocracy is behind a smidge over 2/3 of that shift.
 
If we were to look at states instead (the typical poli sci method and arguably the more accurate measurement), we get this more positive picture:

Between the end of the Cold War and 2022, liberal democracies have remained virtually the same, more than half the world's closed autocracies have gone the way of the dodo, and electoral democracies and electoral autocracies are tied at 32.58%: back in 1990, electoral autocracies were almost 30% ahead of electoral democracies, and a staggering 36.84% of the world's states were closed autocracies. Closed autocracies were by far the most common form of government in the world when the Cold War ended: today its the opposite, it's the least common.
 
That was an argument against Visual Capitalist's measurement of democracy. Democratic backsliding is accepted among most experts, but there's not much certainty as to whether or not this will turn out to be a lasting development or if it's simply a symptom of many politically and socially underdeveloped/unprepared states which were democratised when the Cold War wrapped up simply having reverted to forms of government which are more in line for what could be expected of them.
 
 
Edit: I was going to write a brief reply. Instead I wrote more here than I've gotten done on my thesis during the last two months combined. FFS...

First Tu-22 kill? Pilots reportedly bailed out. 
 

https://forbes.ua/ru/news/ukrainskiy-virobnik-gotue-seriyne-virobnitstvo-analoga-dji-mavic-shmavik-forbes-diznavsya-yogo-kharakteristiki-ta-tsinu-17042024-20603
Via: https://mastodon.social/@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl/112296332321909985
I still don't know why Ukrainians allies don't seem able to get projects like this on the way. The cost of development is a fraction of the cost of a leopard... Peanuts to what else is being sent. 

Formed from volunteer units of the armed wing of the Right Sector, the 67th Mech. is being divided up.
From one of the articles linked:
Imo, if true, that the unit could not integrate and was doing such Russian Frontline mobik tactics, then absolutely replacing with Syrskyi was the right move.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/14/7451183/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/16/7451501/
https://t.co/SGm9I4j1l0
 

Yesterday in Kamensk-Shakhtinskiy, Rostov oblast UKR UAVs hit the building of chemical factory, producing MLRS rocket fuel components. There is no information about the scale of detriment, just an unverified photo of probable fire in one of factory's building.
Local authorities as usual claimed all drones were shot down, just one fell down on territory of the factory, damaging some windows
    

Two days ago UKR drone repeated attack of Russian over-horizon 29B6 "Konteiner" radar complex (it's receiver part) with 3000 km range near Kovylkino village. On the video we can see distant explosion.
  
 


Some Russian TG claimed after second attack radar site isn't operational. Single research institute, which developed it almost dead and the factory, where this radar equipment was built already doesn't exist. Radar had been producing during 5 years and about 10-15 years were spent for it deployment, ajustment works and test service until it became fully operational. If this true, Russia got huge blind zone on own SW direction, so if Ukraine has super-long-range drones it can fly more free in this window to reach Volga and Syberia strategical military and civil infrastructure 

PS. US media as always was alarmed because of this. Newsweek issued an article that this is dangerous attack, which can cause esaclation (OMG...) because Ukraine attacked startegical radar site, intended i.e. for early warning of nuclear strike and this according Russian nuclear doctrine can be considered as a reason of nuclear weapon usage. 
 
 

Then they came for der Mittelstand....
I keep posting energy tech stuff because the modular/miniature/precision armaments revolution is absolutely experiencing the exact same dynamics, just not so well documented (yet).
The West will innovate, but the Chinese will beat us to mass market, every time. With quality more than adequate for purpose. As innovative firms and their ecosystems starve and die, so too will innovation.
Solar panels are now used as fences in Germany because they are more affordable than the usual fencing.
The market standard for solar panels is now moving to Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (#TOPCon) technology, which improves solar cell architecture to reduce efficiency losses.
The technology was developed by Germany's Fraunhofer Institute in 2013, but large-scale manufacturing takes place mostly in China.
"European manufacturers have no money to change to the new technology. So now there is no competitive advantage anymore and they have to sell old technology."
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/squeeze-on-european-solar-manufacturers-curbs-innovation-cementing-china-s-lead-81072375


 

The way I see it is that if you bombard and area with artillery then everything in an ellipse of hundreds of meters is at risk of dying. I don't see much difference in designating a killbox for drones and letting them go for it. In fact a killbox is better since it can be defined more precisely and the stroke can be closer to your own troops. 

It doesnt sound like much but youre looking at a full truck worth of wire for a platoon position and depending on how its delivered quite some time to set up. In an environment where trenches are quite often not even reinforced it seems to me to simply be too far down the priority list.
Also my rl experience is were usually putting wire obstacles to channel the enemy to particular places by blocking paths in areas where there is not much freedom of movement like paths through a forest.

1) Basically every industrial country has far more energy generation capacity than it needs to ensure continuous production - even if several plants need to be taken off the grid for maintenance or simply damage repairs. 
2) Outside of the planned over-capacity, older power plants are not immediately demolished when a newer one is finished. They remain for years as a "strategic reserve". And due to improved technology energy companies are almost always building something newer and more efficient somewhere, so there is a continuous rotation from older to newer.
3) Special government programs like in Germany, where renewables are being pushed, means that a lot of conventional power plants have been taken off the grid, but are not destroyed. Germany gets between 30% and 40% of its daily energy from renewables (and growing), and has roughly the same capacity, mostly in coal plants, dormant and ready to be fired up. 
Ukraine's economy before the war used 125 TWh per year, which has dropped significantly due to the war to something below 100 TWh.
Germany alone has likely 200 TWh of unused capacity next to the 500 to 600 TWh it currently needs per year.

Just FYI Europe is trying to deal with the attacks on Ukraines energy infrastructure...
https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-sends-emergency-aid-ukraine-after-further-attacks-energy-infrastructure-2024-04-09_en
Long term and near term if Ukraine can get Wind Turbines and Solar (all time cheap prices on solar) a lot of what Russia is trying to do will be undone and Ukraine will be in a way better position after the war as it will not be reliant on Russian Gas or Fossil Fuels.
The Energy market is changing and it will remove the stranglehold of the Axis of Evil as some folk like to call them..

Since this discussion doesn't seem to be stopping I want to say that both sides need to cut each other some slack. What consenting adults do with each other is none of my business and if my friends or family have a same-sex relationship it does not harm me in any way. 
On the other hand some people are uncomfortable with that and they are not going to change their mind by your disapproval. They just need time and space to realise the whole country isn't going to burn down because some man decides to wear a dress or something. 

New update from General Oleksandr Syrskyi:
https://t.me/osirskiy/650
 
 

It's became knowingly Russia used new missiles to hit Trypillia thermal power plant in Kyiv oblast two days ago. Recently it was considered were launched cruise misiiles Kh-101 type only, but now remains of Kh-69 were found. 
 

Kh-69 it's a deep modernization of "air-surface" Kh-59M missile, turned it into compact mid-range cruise missile similar to Storm Shadow. Kh-69 in first time was introduced in August 2022 and on Dubai Airshow in 2023. The missile has GLONASS/GPS guidance and DSMAC. GLONASS antennas unit "Kometa-M" is shielded in lower semi-sphere for better protection from EW systems.
Kh-69 has a range 290-400 km and carries 310 kh warhead (so at least 100-120 kg HE). Most bad feature for our AD is extreme low altitude flight profile. The missile can fly on 25-70 m which makes it too hard target for timely spotting by radars. Kh-69 developed for perspective Russian fighter Su-57, but probably Su-30/34/35 also may carry this missile.
It's known about three episodes of Kh-69 usage: Feb 7 2024, Feb 18 2024 (launch from Su-57, but missile hit the empty place in the field) and Apr 11 2024 (Trypillia thermal power plant was destroyed)    

Probable Kh-69 layout in Su-57 fighter

In last days Russians activated on Staromayorske - Urozhaine section (Berdiansk directions). Mostly a war of small groups for forward positions. Here is Ukrianian troops of 58th mot.inf brigade turned back own previously lost position in 1 km south from Urozhaine
M113 approaches to threnches, shells it and land assault squad. Assaulters eleiminte Russians with grenades and HE charges, then ran back to M113, which already brought fresh group, which will hold position 
 

Elements of 59th mot.inf brigade,  109th and 111th TD brigades pushed Russians back from NW part of Pervomaiske village, taking back a school almost in the center of the village. Russian troops seized almost all it several days ago, advancing to Karlivla. This is southern flank of Avdiivka sector
  
 

Next Russian attempt to enter to Chasiv Yar from Ivanivske. Column is destroyed. Video of 225th separate assault battalion
Su-25 over Chasiv Yar. Initially there was information this is Russian jets, but many told this is Ukrainian. Still unknown, so just "Su-25 over Chasiv Yar"
Rare episode of Ukrainian aviation uses gliding bombs. Russian position in Ivanivske got GBU-39
 

Kofman in his latest podcast which is focused on drones proposed a reason, why it is significantly more difficult to use drones in support of a go forward maneouvre. He says that Russian ECM is effective and droning Russian defensive positions requires operating within the umbrella of ECM emitters emplaced in the RUS  trenches, where drones will work significantly worse. He says that the drones really can shine when engaging units which are on the offensive and have left the ECM cover.
Kofman in general praises Russian ECM and for example, he says that GPS guided munitions have been generally degraded. Excaliburs are left unused in some units, and Ukrainians are asking for GMLRS with DPICM warheads which may still do damage despite the missile being spoofed by ECM and going off course.

Interesting post from Russian telegrammer:
https://t.me/rogozin_do/5657
 
 

Yeah, he obviously doesn't know the history of Afghanistan or Czechoslovakia/Hungary or he would be making that comparison not Iraq 2003. He kinda says that if war was a computer game you could save-scum your way to a flawless victory against impossible odds. But he doesn't say how. 
War is about mistakes - you can't run a "what if" scenario based on your side running a flawless campaign with perfect knowledge of both thr enemy and yourself

The story with Tsar-EW-tank got a continue.
After Russian attack was repelled, additional recon showed that this tank hadn't critical damages and can be moved to our positions as valuable source, because almost all Russian portable anti-drone EW assets were mounted which just were possible. It's turned out our FPV damaged only targeting system, then a tank tracks stuck in barbed wire with attached AT-mines, tank lost control, crashed into disabled BMP and stopped - the crew abandoned tank. 
During several nights two "Azov" tankers have been providing reparing works. They unlocked driver's hatch, because a gun was directly under it, then they changed a 70 kg battery, which brought from own positions - this work should be done by three men, but they did it together. Then they unraveled and cut the wire on the tracks and removed a mine under the tank. All this in the nights and not in calm situation - one night Russians tried to recapture tank, sending a group on the bikes (!!!), but it was eliminated. 
After all "Azov" tankers turned on engine and drove to own positions in Terny. But on the route the tank in the darkness fell into bomb crater, the driver hit head and lost consciousness. Fortunately he came to senses soon and could drive out the crater. Tank arrived to Terny, where the crew already awaited Serhiy "Flash" - admin of FB/TG channel about EW and communication systems. On the photo below he already researhes trophy equipmnent
    
 

Russia is spending over 6% of it's GDP on the military right now, which is a very heavy burden. A handful of NATO countries spent a comparable amount of money in Afghanistan every year for 20 years without much effort. 
I have not got the numbers to hand but NATO is not breaking a sweat right now financially, so even if big players like the US pulled out (doubtful, even with trump in charge IMO) they still have the resources to keep going. In a few years industry will catch up to the financing and then NATO can supply Ukraine indefinitely. 

Yeah, he obviously doesn't know the history of Afghanistan or Czechoslovakia/Hungary or he would be making that comparison not Iraq 2003. He kinda says that if war was a computer game you could save-scum your way to a flawless victory against impossible odds. But he doesn't say how. 
War is about mistakes - you can't run a "what if" scenario based on your side running a flawless campaign with perfect knowledge of both thr enemy and yourself

An update for Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi:
https://t.me/osirskiy/645