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Tux

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  1. Like
    Tux reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Don't forget you are using google translate. He didn't call you a beggar, he used a saying (прислів'я). 
    And yes people here understand that Ukrainians are now in a difficult place. But we can't fully imagine it because we aren't experiencing it. At the same time we also still have our lives with the normal problems, small compared to Ukraine but that doesn't make them smaller for us.
    Anyway in my opinion there is too much politics and stirup by media (крамола) going around. If three months ago it would be known that Germany would allow all tank transfer to Ukraine and deliver 14 Leo2A6 end of March, it would be good news. 
    From my point of view the support is not 'mockery'. Inflation 20% is not mockery, gas price going through roof is not mockery. One of my friend company was on point of bankruptcy because of the gas price. Compared to Ukraine it is small problem. But not for him, he has everything in it and depend on it to eat with wife and two children. At that time he think same about Ukraine as your last 3 words.

    Back to support, Germany is setting up a factory for production of Gepard ammunition. A vehicle they don't have in service anymore. Is it *all* you need? No, but it is something. 
    Of course if you are under daily attacks, nothing can come fast enough. And yes if there would be rocket falling here also, things would go faster probably. But they aren't falling here. 
     
  2. Like
    Tux got a reaction from SteelRain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    While I (and I think most here) sympathise with your position here I think there may be a little bit getting ‘lost in translation’:  “Beggars can’t be choosers” is a common phrase in English which is not meant to imply any additional offence to the “beggar” in question, to the extent that the word itself can be seen as derogatory.  It’s just a pithy way of saying that people with no other choice shouldn’t be too critical of the form of assistance they get.  “Don’t bite the hand that feeds you” is another one. 
    Sorry if you knew that; I don’t mean to patronise.
    Ultimately though Butschi does have a point: there is no legal obligation on any European country to give Ukraine anything (as brainless and immoral as it would be for them not to).  The people on this board will likely be sympathetic to your complaints about the rate of assistance offered but there are those who would take offence and use it to justify ceasing assistance altogether. 

    It’s a bit like putting Wehrmacht insignia on your tank:  ‘dark humour’ to you and your mates, forgivable foolishness to friends who understand your plight, gold dust to those who want ammunition to feed a propaganda war.
  3. Like
    Tux got a reaction from Gnaeus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    While I (and I think most here) sympathise with your position here I think there may be a little bit getting ‘lost in translation’:  “Beggars can’t be choosers” is a common phrase in English which is not meant to imply any additional offence to the “beggar” in question, to the extent that the word itself can be seen as derogatory.  It’s just a pithy way of saying that people with no other choice shouldn’t be too critical of the form of assistance they get.  “Don’t bite the hand that feeds you” is another one. 
    Sorry if you knew that; I don’t mean to patronise.
    Ultimately though Butschi does have a point: there is no legal obligation on any European country to give Ukraine anything (as brainless and immoral as it would be for them not to).  The people on this board will likely be sympathetic to your complaints about the rate of assistance offered but there are those who would take offence and use it to justify ceasing assistance altogether. 

    It’s a bit like putting Wehrmacht insignia on your tank:  ‘dark humour’ to you and your mates, forgivable foolishness to friends who understand your plight, gold dust to those who want ammunition to feed a propaganda war.
  4. Like
    Tux reacted to Gpig in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    when The_Capt arrives, I think St. Peter would stay buttoned up.
  5. Like
    Tux reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Actions speak louder than words. Zero abrams = the entirety of the US is completely feckless. All of it. Every single person and organisation. Feck. Less.
  6. Like
    Tux reacted to Probus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As an aside, I started a new related thread that y'all might fun to add to:
     
  7. Like
    Tux reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    thanks for that uplifting positive message on Valentine's day.  Did you buy your wife dead flowers?
  8. Like
    Tux reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Homicide is the act of killing a man
    Regicide is the act of killing a king
    Fratricide is the act of killing a brother (or, more generally, any blue-on-blue)
    Matricide is the act of killing your mother
    Countryside is the act of killing Piers Morgan
  9. Like
    Tux reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    first we insult the morons, now we insult the twits?  Next we'll be trashing the village idiots. this has got to stop.
  10. Like
    Tux reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    that really isn't fair to morons.
  11. Like
    Tux reacted to Ts4EVER in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's because this war is obviously different from the colonial adventures people are used to protesting against.
  12. Like
    Tux reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    FFS are we still on about this?  Have you invested in a landmine consortium of some sort?
    “There were 90 of us. Sixty died in that first assault, killed by mortar fire. A handful remained wounded,”
    So whose landmines were they?  We have heard no reports of Ukrainians employing them so they could have been command detonated claymores.  Or they were attacking through their own minefields.  
    So this entire episode reinforces my points.  The minefield cause initial attrition but did not block the assault.  It slowed it down but mortars did the actual killing. Mines may have had a supporting effect but were not decisive.  It is just as likely that these Wagner convicts were forced to assault through one of their own minefields, which is an additional issue with their employment.
    But hey you are right no one is marching in the streets in protest so clearly the logical thing to do is start planting millions of AP mines all over the place. I mean if we are throwing out the book because we are done with “precious pearl clutching” let’s bring back napalm and carpet bombing.  Why not supply Ukraine with chemical weapons?  If it going to be a race to the bottom and killing Russians is the only consideration to the exclusion of all else, some bio terrorism in the backfield along with some good old fashion Vlad-style impaling should do the trick.
    Ukraine sinking to the same level as Russia is a terrible idea in so many ways.  We are the “good guys” and the second we forget that we may as well toss in the towel.
     
  13. Like
    Tux reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Challenge accepted! 
  14. Like
    Tux reacted to kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I see you are very new to this thing, so let me give you a history lesson. No, not even THE history lesson, where we go through three centuries of genocide, although that context matters more than anything, but a recent one.
    When Russia invaded Ukraine - Ukraine was bound by its own Constitution to stay neutral. In fact Ukraine wasn't just 'neutral' - it was absolutely anti-NATO. At the start of 2014 only 18% of Ukrainians wished to join NATO. Ukraine was also under Western sanctions, just a little bonus.
    So then russians invade, start looting, raping, torturing, killing people and that goes on for whole 5 years before Ukraine finally decides to remove neutrality from Constitution. Hmmm, say - maybe getting killed by russians for 5 years had something to do with that "join the NATO" bright idea, but, nah, that's a preposterous thought.
    How Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan are doing, not being in NATO, btw? I heard they have their territories occupied by russians, but that can't be, those countries are not in NATO.
    Or maybe, just maybe russians not wanting anyone to be in purely defensive alliance is because they want to attack that country?
    So come again? 
  15. Like
    Tux reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No they shredded his logistics system, C4ISR and cause him to implode at an operational level at least twice.
    The density you would have to lay AP mines to get the effect you want would likely get more people killed than you would in fact inflict on the enemy.  They did an experiment back when I was at CFSME and laid a standard NATO AP strip in a training minefield.  They then had two entire courses run back and forth a half a dozen times over the minefield man abreast.  It created 2 casualties.  So the density you would have to lay these at would 1) stress the logistical system, 2) expose troops while putting them in place even given RA ISR and 3) not likely work like you want as the first 2-3 guys would get hit and then the rest would just charge over their bodies.
    Mines are not some magic sticky carpet we can stick out there like mouse traps.  Just think about a company sized position, so 500m across because this is dense fighting.  So that is 500 sq meters in a single line, so if you want high density you are probably talking 4 mines per square meter, that is one mine in a 1/4 meter box.  That is 2000 AP mines to deny a strip 1 m deep.  Want to make that strip 10ms and we are talking 20000 mines.  100ms, so the stopping power your are looking for, 200000 AP mines....for 500m.  Oh, and then in a month or two you have to counter-attack over the same minefield...whoops.
    It would be far better to use area command detonated systems which are already outside the Ottawa Convention. 
    Political cost - I have noticed a trend here to "poo-poo" inconvenient political realities on both sides of this war.  Russian supporters or fearers wave away Putin's real political pressures and hazards that limit his actions (e.g. mobilization).  Doing it on behalf of the UA is not any better.  The UA might get away with it, but lets take Canada for a second...peace loving maple syrup slurping socialists that we are.  So we are in a minority government situation right now with the far left NDP actually holding the Liberals in power.  So consider for a moment what they are going to do with the sudden wide employment of AP mines by the UA as we send Ukraine billions of dollars in military aid in a post-pandemic economic crunch....I will let you mull it over.
    The moral here, is that within politics risk is not simple nor straight forward - it is also highly connected.  So while you may wish to dismiss the issue, I am pretty sure the Ukrainians have not.  They have not given notice to withdraw from the convention, nor have we seen any evidence of violations...and they are fighting for their lives.
    So 1) they will not do what you want, and 2) the risks are very real and frankly not worth it given point #1.  You want to make Russians die in numbers, how about just keep doing what they are doing because it seems to be working.  
  16. Like
    Tux reacted to The_MonkeyKing in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is a Ukraine thread
  17. Like
    Tux reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Don't oversell AP landmines here. Having been in minefields and witnessed some of the carnage you describe personally - and a lot of years as a combat engineer, I think I can play the "expert" card here.
    AP landmines were always designed to harass and attrit - both physically and psychologically.  The only ones that were approaching lethality level to be decisive are area systems like claymore or bounding mines (especially when in daisy chain...nasty).  So their utility in warfare is not zero but it is also 1) upside down and 2) backwards:
    Upside down - like most engineer obstacles you are trading work for time.  A LOT of work up front to buy a few seconds minutes later.  Making those minutes second count is what all arms defence is all about.  AP mine as part of that overall system is a very junior player in the modern age.  The vast majority of AP mines simply are never detonated.  They do support force multiplication but pale in comparison to AT systems.  Main reason is that mechanized made modern warfare - we will see how long that lasts - so kill the vehicle and a modern army is back to WW1.  AP mines were there to make clearance of those AT mines difficult and to kill engineers.  In some conditions they were still used for final defence, but in order to really have an effect you have to employ a very high density.  Go read on the Falklands War accounts of the final attacks on the Two Sisters.  The Brits hit minefields on the assault, took hits and just kept on going.  So as the modern era progressed the amount of effort to put out enough density in AP became entirely secondary to the AT problem.  Back in training, before the Ottawa Convention, we would plan for a lone single strip in a massive AT minefield that was frankly an enormous pain in the a@@ and did basically nothing.  We did employ them for nuisance minefields but these were last on the priority list of engineer works.  AT, AT and AT was always the priority. 
    So the value of AP outside of very narrow circumstances really began to drop to the point that when the landmine ban came up, we kind looked at it and went "meh".  We still retain the command detonated point defence systems, like Claymores, so the ability really mess people up is still there.  And boobytraps/anti-handling devices exist in a grey area so if we need to deny critical systems in a withdrawal scenario we still could.  The old AP mines - "toe poopers" - really kind became old-school extra work that we really did not miss.
    Backwards - The other problem with the old dumb AP mines was the fact that they killed/injured more people after the war than they did in the war itself.  This drove the costs of these systems way outside the battlefield gains.  Cambodia was really the eye opener, and then the Balkans, Afghanistan etc.  We saw that the post-war impact was like GDP-level harming - the cost of removing these weapons, especially if they records are lost or never made, was orders of magnitude of the weapon system itself.  So from a military strategic perspective these were literally cutting off the nose to spite the face.  They were never going to be decisive on the battlefield, and the post-war costs were enormous as we were seeing large swaths of agriculture, tourism and development areas were totally denied for at least a century unless a nation in post-war recovery could spend millions on clearances that would take years. 
    So frankly, AP mines do not make warfare economic sense.  They may feel good but Ukraine sticking its neck out on this one is not worth it.  They will kill a few more Russians, but not enough to balance the blowback or post-war impacts.  The RA has demonstrated a stunning ability to feed people into this thing, so they are simply going to ignore any AP minefields, accept the casualties and move on.
    DPICM is fundamentally a very different problem.  The issue here is the "peace community" really functions by fund raising and to do that they need "wins".  The AP Convention was a big win, so they were searching for a high profile follow up - enter Lebanon 2006.  Israel in a bafflingly bad military operation - it basically killed the credibility of their famous design approach - decided to start lobbing old stockpiles DPICM at hybrid forces who were fighting from within communities...what could possibli go wrong?  Well the whole thing blew up in their, and our, faces...literally.  Old stockpiled DPICMs had embarrassing dud rates - although, reality check; those dud rates do not even come close to the numbers of AP mines employed in older conflicts.  More modern DPICM systems are seeing lower dud rates than the HE being tossed around the battlefield today...but if it looks like a landmine and can generate crowd funding like a landmine...
     So the Anti-Cluster munition thing was born.  We in military circles knew that it would really go nowhere because DPICM has far more battlefield utility and in many circumstances it could be decisive.  So they bolted together a convention but there are holes one can drive a truck through and all the major players simply refused to sign off - although the US made some hand over heart promises.  So what?  Well DPICM essentially takes HE and distribute it widely and more efficiently.  When shaped charge rounds are employed the lethality goes up as well - plenty of studies out there, and we read a lot of them for CMCW.  So unlike AP which is a nuisance to an attacking combined arms unit, DPICM can kill it.  For Ukraine, and the US, the employment of DPICM is entirely legal, even if it makes some people queasy.  Neither nation signed the thing in Oslo and can legally employ the weapon systems in accordance with the Geneva CCW.  Modern DPICM have extremely low dud rates as they are built to be self-neutralizing - we are talking 95% and above, far higher than standard HE.  Now as PGM enters the battlefield en masse, my bet is that DPICM will also go the way of AP mines.  If we need to kill 10 attacking vehicles, we fire 10 PGM systems.  DPICM cost/benefit will very likely shift- along with a lot of systems - after this war and into the future.  So the entire thing may become moot, but we are not there yet.
    So DPICM will have political costs, but I think they are mitigatable and are outweighed by critical battlefield utility.  AP mines, no; DPICM, yes. 
     
     
  18. Like
    Tux reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes, and poor Imperial Japan was just nicely minding its own busines, rampaging across China, raping Nanking, cutting down all the trees in Korea, fortifying the entire ex-German Pacific islands mandate. Co-Prosperity Sphere, you know.
    ...and mean old Roosevelt needlessly provoked them with his metals and oil embargo, like a literal dagger to the throat of an oil poor maritime power I tell you!
    I mean, what else could they do? but rampage across the entire Pacific, mass-murdering civilians by the bucketload?
    Bring better arguments than drive-by Carlson/Buchanan retweets, mate. Otherwise, The American Conservative is over there.....
  19. Like
    Tux reacted to poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think I need to inform you that this forum is exempt from Godwins Law.
    If mentioning that the Nazis did or did not something would immediately and an argument here, this forum would be full of millions of very, very short threads...
    So, please go ahead.
  20. Like
    Tux reacted to Eddy in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    At least we've got away from that bloody balloon!
  21. Like
    Tux reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You do realize how that sounds?  Probably gets some hackles up and so makes readers less receptive to your message.  The folks who post here are pretty smart overall but you seem to imply that folks just aren't smart enough to understand your message.  They understand, they are just disagreeing with your positions on several matters and have made some very strong arguments.
  22. Like
    Tux reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  23. Like
    Tux reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They should send them anyway, considering the gravyty of the situation.
  24. Like
    Tux reacted to The_MonkeyKing in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Why we have balloon news in this thread? This is Ukraine war thread

  25. Like
    Tux reacted to fireship4 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
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