asurob

Negative.  If Russia goes nuclear, then bank on Russia being sans an air force or navy within hours after that.  If Vlad tosses one, things will get interesting quickly.  Unlike Vladimir's red lines, the west and NATO don't make false threats.  
We all may end up losing in this, but Putin most certainly will be the first loser

He's not far off.  Honestly, if you give into little vlad's nuclear blackmail...this will not be the last time he wields that tool.  Next up the Baltics, or Poland or...well you get the idea.  If you give into little Vlad's nuclear blackmail, next up....North Korea, or Iran when they finally sort out the details of nuclear fission.  This will be the results of not responding and responding hard to Russian threats of nuclear escalation...  Do you want to live in "that" world?  I do not.  

He's not far off.  Honestly, if you give into little vlad's nuclear blackmail...this will not be the last time he wields that tool.  Next up the Baltics, or Poland or...well you get the idea.  If you give into little Vlad's nuclear blackmail, next up....North Korea, or Iran when they finally sort out the details of nuclear fission.  This will be the results of not responding and responding hard to Russian threats of nuclear escalation...  Do you want to live in "that" world?  I do not.  

Seems we have another UKR attack

Negative.  If Russia goes nuclear, then bank on Russia being sans an air force or navy within hours after that.  If Vlad tosses one, things will get interesting quickly.  Unlike Vladimir's red lines, the west and NATO don't make false threats.  
We all may end up losing in this, but Putin most certainly will be the first loser

Let's also remember that using a stick alone without a carrot was basically tried after WW1 in the form the Versailles contracts. We all know how that turned out.

I mean  , really  ,  do you think you would have been arguing in this same fashion during WW2   with regards American policy towards Japan  ? Why are you getting so queasy about not giving the Russians the same treatment ? Because Nukes ?
As far as I can see the Russians are behaving no better than the worst of the SS  Divisions or units of the Imperial Japanese Army  .  They slaughter civilians  with pleasure , mine schools , target civilian populations without hesitation when they are able  .  They deserve  the hangman's noose if caught and that  includes all of the current Russian leadership .
 
 

It's sad, that many of westrerners have rose glasses, considering only "system" responsible for this war. Russian Constitution (like and Ukrainian) says: "The nation is single source of state power". If so, they responsible for all, what this power did. Responsible with direct involvimg, responsible for any form of support, responsible for own indiferense "we are out of politic". The latter is the same sin. Because indifference of millions breeds the tyrany of one. And because this all Russian nation should carry collective guilt. And I can assure you - many of those Russians, which were against Putin's regime from the beginning and tried to struggle with it - they share this opinion and they feel a shame for their nation allowed it.
Putin and other are not came from Mars. As I told recently, Russian political system and Russian society is symbiotic systems. One can't live without other. Russian power is a spawn of Russian nation aspirations. "Strong hand, all world must fear us, we are great, we must rule the world, restore USSR/Russian Empire". Russians supported this power in 2014, when they occupied Crimea - all streets in every Russian city and last asshole village were filled by jubilant people. About 90 % supported. Not a abstract system, but Russian Vanya, murdered people  and looted goods now in 2022. And about 80 % of Russians supported SMO even in May, after blitzkrieg failing. 
I have (or had already?) some friends in Russia. Typical Russian middle class, which enjoys the life and almost completely apolitical. They weren't chavinists or snobs, who consider that only Russian culture, language and face of life  and have many sympaties to Ukraine, they even suppotred our Maidan, but they anyway were adhered to the opinion "why do you so much want to join the West if we are culture&religious close nations and one people at all, though with some minor differences?" So if such moods had "liberals", what sh..t in the heads of more "deep nation" representatives?
Typical picture in airports - this man is going to leave Russia, scaring mobilization, but he weared in Z-marked closes. Now on the border with Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russians are hastly deleting all war-support symbolic from own cars. I belive, 2/3 of theese "refugees" supported the war.
But, of course, we shouldn't kill all Russians, I didn't see this in Kraze posts. They should by derashizied, like Germans were denazified after the WWII 

 About "Kraze doesn't consider Russians as a nation". You just didn't understand his words. In English names of nation representatives "American, Ukrainain, Italian" (nouns) and mean "having feature", like "Ukrianian, American, Italian culture" (adjectives) sound the same. In Russian language the word "Russkiy" means "representative of Russian nation" is adjective, not the noun. It reflects not "who are you?" but "whose are you?". So, this ethnonim really more hystorical construct, including Slavs, Caucasians, ugro-finns, buriats, and many other nations, composing Russian state. 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have started to take the first prisoners of war from the mobilized vatniks.  The time from forced conscription to POW status is one week.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have started to take the first prisoners of war from the mobilized vatniks.  The time from forced conscription to POW status is one week.

After seven months and 1,448 pages I am rather surprised that no one (as far as I've noticed) has made the obvious Hunt for Red October reference about slipping on tea...

Dagestan still lively. Also a report the governor had a "heart attack".

That is some grade A trolling by the Ukrainians.  🤣

The "separatists" were about to be defeated in 2014, at which point Russia decided to throw off the excuse of the "little green men" and just sent in regular Russian forces to reinforce and save the separatists and freeze the conflict. Igor Girkin is a FSB agent and Minister of Defense for the DPR! far from clear? I'm not sure what more clearness there could be that the separatists were made up of significant numbers of Russian military and security personnel, not before even getting into the actual deployment of Russian forces to keep the border open and separatist supply routes intact preventing the whole thing from ending in 2014. 

If we mean what we stand for then this isn't about what we want, it is about what the populations within those regions want - we cannot go back-sies on democracy because we don't like the result. 
And now we get down to it. What is democracy? What is a "region" with a right of secession? What is a "population"? What is the franchise? We get into gerrymandering discussions here.
To take the case of Northern Ireland. What gave the six counties the right to secede from the rest of Ireland? (in reality it was military power through the gun running to Larne and the British Army mutiny in the Curragh). But what is the franchise? Whole of UK (which would have lost)? Whole of Ireland (which would have lost)? Whole of Ulster (which would have lost)? On a county by county basis (which would have shown four counties in favor of secession)? So what we ended up with was four Protestant counties and two subject Catholic counties making a six county statelet which was (just about) large enough to be viable and with a (then) inbuilt 66/33 Protestant majority. i.e. it was an entirely illegitimate project.
So when we move to Ukraine. What was the mandate behind Donetsk or Luhansk having any legitimacy as a separatist region? There is none. The majority of the population in both oblasts wanted to stay in Ukraine. There was no problem until Russia sent it in agents provocateurs to stir up trouble because they could not accept being defeated in the Maidan. So I do not see that Donetsk, Luhansk or Crimea have any legitimate right to secede. And when you add to the fact that the Russians have engaged in ethnic cleansing to clear out the Tartars and plant Russians in Ukraine to generate an artificial majority, the fact that the pro Ukrainian parts of the population fled from Donetsk and Luhansk and Crimea how do we say we can have a fair poll today. Like take Crimea, do Russian settlers who moved in get a vote because they live there now? And the family who's house they live in who are refugees in Kiev don't get a vote?
No.
This is not a question of pseudo independence referenda (and why would Ukraine subject to this if Russia is not going to allow Buriyta and Chechnya and other regions secede). Yes, if people in Donbas want to have Russian language rights and the right to send members of Parliament to Kiev they should (after a period of weeding out traitors who should lose their Ukrainian citizenship).
 
You have some places like Scotland for example which entered a voluntary union with England in 1707 or whatever and therefore can have a natural justice right to undo that (it is still a separate country with a separate legal system). Greenland is hundreds of miles from Denmark. And even there whether they have a right to secede or not is an open question. But what gives the Donbas the right to secede from Ukraine? To my mind, nothing. And sorry, regardless what the current quisling "government" there says or the remains of the population that currently inhabit that place.
 
Have they a right to citizenship in Ukraine or to leave peacefully to Russia? Yes. Have they the right to live in peace? Absolutely. The right to raise their kids in Russian language schools? 100%. Have they the right to declare themselves independent of Ukraine and ask Russia for "protection"? Hell no.

This is VERY well put.

I understand your viewpoint but I think it needs to be emphasized that this is already very dark and I'm just not sure if your understanding it, but tbf your in good company, it might be questioned if the governments of France, Germany, etc don't either. Millions of Ukrainian citizens are under occupation. 
For example, Finland has a population of 5 million. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, about 6 million. In the LPR and DPR, its about 3-4 million, Crimea, 2.5 million, add in the seized areas since February. Maybe 5 million at least? We have 5 million Ukrainians displaced across Europe. When you imply that the LPR, DPR, Crimea should be let go, you have just broken NATO. You have just signaled the abandonment of the Baltics and Finland.
Yes, yes, Ukraine is not in NATO. Yes, yes, NATO would mop up Russia. Right now tho, the fight between NATO and Russia is in Ukraine, acting like the French and British letting the Poles fight without a offensive in the West is not the way to go down history. You don't strengthen NATO unity if you tell the Baltics they don't matter, anymore than France or Germany did earlier this year. 
Russia, as you have pointed out asking if it's worth it to flip the nuclear switches for the Donbas and Crimea, I'm going to ask you if the Baltics and Finland are worth flipping the nuclear switches and staring down Putin. Either we stop Russia right now in Ukraine, or one day down the line, we will suffer thru this again. And you can bring up how Russia is condemned to a decade or more of economic destruction, it's been 31 years since the USSR fell, 30 years is not a lot time away in the future. 

Together with 10 fighters of Foreign Legion UKR brought back 190 own militaries and among them some heroes of Azovstal, including Azov fighters. In this time became knowingly about liberation of chief of Mariupol patrol police Mykhaylo Vershynin - his guys were almost single police unit of Mariupol, which fought to the end, when most of other policemen either fled or hide and further to defect to Russia

Also was liberated Kateryna Polishchuk "Ptashka" ("Birdy") paramedic of "Hospitaliers" volunteer medic unit, which became famous when uploaded own songs from besiged Azovstal
 
 

I wish I could give you a good reason for why you're wrong, but all arguments I've seen against Putin using nukes seem to rest on "it basically doesn't make any sense militarily" or "it wouldn't be rational" or "it would isolate Russia".
But I don't think it was rational to start this war in the first place, so that's not much comfort.

Yes russians are the root of the problem. Not just putin, not just their army, all of russians. They all caused this, collectively. All must be held responsible - which is where things are going, slowly but surely at least with their neighbors. And not just Baltic countries, but even Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Countries sending them all back home is a great damn start - look how enraged they get and how they go from "let's all be friends" pretense to suddenly crying e.g. "Estonia is **** and must be gangraped by our glorious army".
It's delightful to watch and it's the least they deserve.
And don't give me this "final solution" BS. Russians came here claiming to "finally solve the Ukrainian problem". In 7 months of outrageous warcrimes nobody in Russia was ever against any of it, even if they pretended there was none of it for 8 years prior. So let them reap what they sow.

Hokay. 
1. Syria is a civil war,  waged by its autocratic government against its own people. 
2. Ukraine is a war of survival, led by the democratic government against an invading fascist regime, and with the overwhelming support of its own people. 
3. The Kharkiv op is not an aberration, it is the harbinger of worse to come. Yup Kharkiv isn't war winning. But it sure as heck is an inflection point. The war is not going to stay the same -  Russia no longer has the momentum, men, political coherence or operational adaptability to determine the course of events. 
4. Ukraine already went through an interminable, never ending warfare since 2014 -  in fact this is still that war but its now in the decisive phase, and its very much the Ukrainians making the decisions that matter. 
5. Two "past their prime" superpowers? Ehhh... Wut. 
Ok, Russia is one. Check. 
Who's the other, exactly? The one with the amazing weapons and wherewithal to send them halfway across the world? The one with the insanely accurate and immediate  ISR capabilities?  The one actively engaged in a long term project to build a moon base?  
Or maybe the other one,  which however rancorous its decision process has managed to provide billions of dollars in direct aid to Ukraine,  absorbed 5,000,000 refugees in 3 months without raising a sweat,  has weathered all of Russia's  gas threats and is set to get through the winter regardless, has vastly greater military power than Russia and,  as part of an alliance with that other power,  admitted two new,  heavily armed and highly  strategically placed nations, and which the prospect of Ukraine joining it was what set off this whole awful mess in the first place? 
That author is a political hack,  not an original  thought in his head and, at bedrock level,  a twit. 

Ok so this is better how?  Are you telling me they picked up on the UA planning a Kharkiv offensive weeks ahead of time...and did sweet FA to stop it?!  Aaand we are back to broken operational military system.  Look I am sure these RU Nat volunteers are true believers and really cagey tough guys; however, if they have been part of this debacle then I am a little less than concerned about them walking out of a phonebooth and becoming a super army.
If they can surprise...they had better start doing it.  If this clown show picks a fight with the EU, it will escalate to NATO and frankly from what I have seen we could cut thru what is left of the RA - RU Nat volunteers included like **** through a short goose in a long weekend.
The references you are making are making it look worse for them.  They saw but were unable to do anything about the UA taking back what is now being reported 6000 sq kms, in a week.  I don't care if these guys are each super-soldiers who can do one handed chin-ups with no hands - their operational level ISR, C2 and logistics suck well beyond repair in the timeframes of this war.  They are going to be living proof that dedication and belief comes second to hot steel in the right place and right time.
And what if they are really in league with the mole people and conduct a sub-terrainian flanking?!  Like I said these a$$hats are well positioned to pull of a nasty insurgency/guerilla war in the LNR-DPR - maybe, if local support holds.  Beyond that they are living in fragmented...and getting more fragmented by the day, military organization.  What is likely to stop the UA at this point...is the UA.  They are going to need to re-set logistical lines and consolidate but so far from what I have seen the RA is not part of this equation.
In reality these clowns have the making of a VEO network that will go underground and make everyone miserable once this thing is over.  Good thing we have about 20 years worth of experience hunting humans in this context.
I gotta be honest, I am really tired of the freakin "boogy man of the week" right now.  We are jumping out of our seats because everything is really dangerous and really scary:
- The Russian Army with all that hardware
- The Black Sea Fleet & the Russian Air Force
- Spetznaz and Wagner clowns
- Russian cruise and hypersonic missiles
- Russian cyber Pearl Harbour 
- Some General Jack-in-the-Box who was a jerk in Syria.
- Russians parked around a nuclear power plant.
- Nukes!!
- the Russian 3rd Corp
- Russian mobilization!! - the other hand coming out.
- Russian escalation dominance.
- RU Nats - whoever the hell they really are
- Ukraine is going to fall
- Ukraine is going to hold on but the war will still be on when my grandkids graduate from college
- Ukraine can't possible take in all this kit and hold on.
- Ukraine can defend but could never pull off an attack
I have to be missing something.  Every week in this war we find something be be scared of, and it has all turned out to be complete and utter BS.  How about we look at the situation, as it unfolded for what it is - a historic military debacle that is likely to break the current Russian regime.  It was doomed from the start, and has only gotten worse.  Sure things could still swing and will likely get uglier but the RA in Ukraine is in death throws - it is keeling over to die, not coiling like a steel spring.  All war is negotiation and right now the Russians are negotiation just how ugly this loss is going to be.
Unless these RU Nats come with an entirely revitalized equipment fleet and logistics backbone to support it, a competitive integrated ISR system, and a completely new military doctrine...you will excuse me if I am not worried.   
 
 

I am unsure of how related is to the topic at hand, but Azerbaiyan and Armenia just had a significant tussle. 

I'm sure most people get that I'm not talking about US politics.

Russian soldiers are as disciplined as the rabble participating in Trump rallies...