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Lethaface

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Everything posted by Lethaface

  1. With all that's been written about the subject in this thread I guess achieving 'drone superiority' in this war would be a significant factor.
  2. A divine intervention is probably what's needed to solve this conflict indeed. At least you made me laugh about this rather sobering subject. In the Ukr/Rus war it is rather clear who are the good guys, somehow that makes it easier for me to follow it closely.
  3. I don't see why Lancets would be such a different type of target that the capability wouldn't be effective against those.
  4. And just a reminder for everyone, how do we think about Russia levelling a building complex full of people in which there might be some Ukrainian soldiers? Or Russia attacking the power supply / heating of Ukraine? If it comes to the rules of war, there shouldn't be differences between how we apply them to various actors in different wars.
  5. This is not correct. If Israel keeps blockading water, food, medicine and fuel for the civilian populace that's considered a warcrime. (Indiscriminately) bombing cities and buildings with massive civilian casualties is too. I fear that is exactly what will happen, which will sow another generation of extremist Hamas/whatever fighters so in a dozen years orso the whole movie will repeat. Not that I think Hamas's actions are productive in any way shape or form. They are rather barbaric in their actions. The question is, what is the outlook of the average young Palestinian growing up in Gaza? Is it surprising they (or at least a good number of m) turn into radical extremist terrorists? Personally I don't think it is surprising. Someone I know once said, during one of the previous similar fubar situations there, that a neutron bomb on the whole region might be the only solution for the problem. I didn't agree then, nor do I think it is a healthy idea now, but I'm starting to understand the reasons for his idea / solution more and more.
  6. I guess those are part of the UNIFIL mission. I have a good connection with someone in the Malaysian Airforce also deployed to Lebanon as part of UNIFIL. Their mission is de-escalation, obviously ;-).
  7. Arabs aren't a country though. Another rather significant distinction is that Germany was responsible for WW2 and the people driven out of those area's were a direct consequence of the war and Germany's behavior. People from the Palestinian area didn't start a massive war nor commit a holocaust; so it's harder to swallow they were driven out of their homes, like for what reason? I'm not fully sure if there was not a 'national identity' like you say, but people sure did have a bond with their houses / ground / place where they lived. It's not that people weren't bonded to their town/city/region before the invention of nation states. I agree though that the regimes (dictatorships) of the Arab states in fact don't really care much for the Palestinians. They are indeed used as political pawns, although I think the Palestinians themselves also don't want to accept that they have lost their home turf forever. They call it the 'Nakba' (disaster) for a reason. At the same time the people living in those Arab states certainly care about m, so that's why those regimes have to keep up appearances once in a while. Ultimately yes Israel is directly responsible for the Gaza situation as they have created it (and are slowly annexing all remaining 'Palestinian' land).
  8. Interesting sounding tech/software, which if I understand correctly could be installed on existing crows and link them together forming a distributed network for defense against drones.
  9. I'm quite sure I saw that video of the Lancet strike on the Mig a coupe of weeks (or longer) ago. IIRC at the time there was the question whether it was a dummy plane or not.
  10. I guess such point defense systems work great against Shaheds/drones which could save up AA missiles for anti-missile defense and or free up more mobile systems to move closer to the front. I wonder how many systems can be bought for the $80m but I guess a decent number with 2 digits. Let's hope they can be on duty at the time that the expected attacks on energy/heating infrastructure begin.
  11. New NATO designation? Although I'd guess against drone dropped ordnance they can be effective.
  12. Out of likes as usual (first world problem :D), but here is one. Yemen anyone? Sudan also going on, etc. This war has large ramifications for most of us. Indirect results like inflation, energy pricing, etc; Anyway I'm not that bleak about support dwindling yet; so far it's more of a media / politics thing afaik. Of course from Ukraine perspective the support can never come (quickly) enough.
  13. I think this is a very limited perspective which is mainly made for internal USA consumption. The average USA voter probably believed Kiev / Ukraine was a Russian province before the '22 invasion. They need some convincing as to why they are involved in this war. While 'real politik' is real, it's not the sole thing that makes the world turn. Plus it comes in many layers and perspectives. FWIW I know for certain that the 'big dude' (there is only USA, no other big dudes) being unhappy was nor is the sole reason my country supports Ukraine. Nor is MH-17 the sole reason. I think the same can be said for most other European countries. If in the end there is any 'sole' reason it is that ultimately 'we' realized, after plenty of broken words and promises and being on the receiving end of unwelcome unvaselined sticks inserted to our cavities, that Russia's regime is and will be a bunch of conniving corrupt bastiges who will do over anyone anywhere as long as they get a gain from it; and kill anyone standing in their way. We might have been a bit late coming to that conclusion, but now we have arrived at it we are stubbornly sticking to it until 'real politik' forces us to do different. For what it is worth I think the average Dutch voter wouldn't want Ukraine to fight a proxy war on our behalf. We are not dying; if Ukraine doesn't want to die for it's own existence, than let us make money off the Russians. 'We' were refining a good chunk of their raw resources / half fabricates and selling the end product back to them at good profit.
  14. I think there is some translation lost in space here. But if we manage to 'force' you to give your rope to Russia, in return for our money, do you deserve to hang from it? In hindsight we can all look into the cows arse :D. Yes the West have made mistakes, and still do. What is even 'the West'? Not everyone in the West has same opinion. For example, while I think Hamas are barbaric terrorists (as shown recently), in my opinion Israel isn't that far off from being a terrorist state. And I know there's not that many people in the West agreeing with me.
  15. I agree that it is too early too judge. And while it is fair to hold them to their own stated objectives, that's one general saying something to the media. Sometimes some people (feel they) need to communicate expectations, even when those with their boots in the actual mud have different expectations or rather no expectations whatsoever; they just do or die.
  16. I don't think it's really somber, it's just realistic. FWIW at times I was probably also over-hopeful regarding the 'offensive', in part because it looked like that Russia was lacking ATGMs / AT assets, the obstacle belt was being ridiculed and defensive coordination / morale seemed lackluster at the time Russia / Wagner was grinding in Bakhmut. The first days of the counter offensive, before we even knew whether it had really started, already showed that the mine belts combined with drone observation / coordinated fires and deep AT assets were a serious issue and not easily overcome without heavy casualties. So, did the offensive fail? That depends where you hold the bar. If you hold it at our unrealistic expectations, then yes it failed. However accounting for the reality on the ground I'm not sure it failed. There is always room for improvement and probably Ukraine made enough mistakes, but as long as they keep learning and maintain their will and capability to fight... Is that a failure or is that progress / learning on the job? If only for those reasons I expected Ukraine to choose Bakhmut as the main effort (after the first mine belt + artillery / Ka-52 interactions), because the (mostly) Wagner forces who achieved the 'success' there were sort of spend and new units, probably mobiks, would have to hold the line which they didn't have time to really fortify as they did with all the other directions. Plus defeating Wagner would destroy the myth. A couple of months later and Wagner was indeed destroyed but not necessarily by Ukraine :D. I guess nobody could have really predicted what happened. That brings me back to whether or not the offensive failed. If one had a neutral expectation, I don't think it really failed. It surely could have gone better but also could have gone a lot worse. So we can all relearn the lesson to keep expectations low; or rather expect the worst but hope for the best. That's not being cynical, just being realistic And like most/all of us expected, this war won't be over even if Ukraine manages to push Russia back to pre-22 borders. So what they can't manage to push Russia back to pre-22 borders in '23? The war wouldn't been over anyway.
  17. Perhaps the rational ones with the means / option to buy a plane ticket already did so a while ago?
  18. FWIW a foresight of possible scenario's with regards to the end of the war and or Putin, aimed at policy makers: https://www.clingendael.org/publication/after-putin-deluge The whole article is free to download as a pdf. Not necessarily new/groundbreaking stuff but a nice collection imo. Extract from the extract: "To help policymakers prepare for what might lie ahead, this report draws up a model consisting of 35 variables that will together shape Russia’s future – based on an extensive literature review and scenario workshop with Dutch and international experts. It then builds on this model to construct a scenario framework for the next five years. These scenarios take into account (1) to what extent the Russian regime could change or persist, (2) to what extent this would be accompanied by large-scale instability and violence, and (3) to what extent a future Russian government would pursue confrontation or rapprochement with the West. The report then puts forward six scenarios based on these variables and presuppositions 1. Reluctant reconciliation. After Russia has lost the war in Ukraine, various groups in the Russian elite join forces to oust Putin in a ‘palace coup’. The new president strikes a deal with the West, makes Putin and his loyalists a scapegoat, and enacts limited democratic and economic reforms. 2. China’s propped-up proxy. The war grinds on for years and no end is in sight. Putin is forced to step down due to mismanagement, but the regime itself prevails and a successor eventually secures political and financial backing from Beijing. Russia becomes fully dependent on China. 3. The Empire strikes back. After Western support for Ukraine dwindles, Russia decisively wins the war. Putin’s popularity surges and he is stronger in power than ever before. Russia has international partners that help it keep its economy going, while the West loses its unity. 4. Neo-Stalinist fortress Russia. Putin has made Russia a global pariah state. China, India and others abandon their tacit support and Russia is forced to become almost entirely self-sufficient. The regime continues its reign through brutal repression and propaganda. 2 After Putin, the deluge? | Clingendael Report, October 2023 5. The Wild East. After continued humiliation and a defeat on the battlefield, Putin’s regime loses legitimacy, withdraws from the south and east of Ukraine, and Russia begins to implode. Russia descends into organised chaos with high levels of criminality reminiscent of the early 1990s. 6. Dissolution without a nuclear solution. A catastrophic military defeat leads to the implosion of the Russian Federation, after which regional warlords seize nuclear assets to deter the rump state Muscovy. While some entities are recognised by China or other powers, Muscovy remains revisionist and deeply hostile towards the West"
  19. Lol actually knowing what was in 'some media' would be a good thing before making conclusions about it, but I digress.
  20. Thanks for your reply and detailing of the specifics with regards to the equipment. With regards to my statement that the complexity was overstated I referred to the statements that only US Navy Seals and equivalent capable organizations could organize such an operation. And that a nation state with the capabilities of Ukraine couldn't achieve such a feat. The fact that you work in exactly this type of field sort of proves the point I made (derived from the info from the video; I'm no diver). It is unfortunate that the documentary video is mostly in Dutch, like I said there is a diver/instructor interviewed who explains that it is his dayjob teaching dives at that depth and said it is a complicated operation but not overcomplicated; certainly doable for experienced divers with the appropriate gear. Neither does the documentary in my opinion show bias 'against' Ukraine imo, they just point out what information is available and even explained how some people don't believe it could be only the andromeda (I guess concluding that is a viable theory was an extrapolation on my side, which could be wrong according to the specifications/expertise you post). Or that the source could be a 'walk in' providing / planting disinformation. Others in the video believed the Andromeda certainly played a key role in it. Like I said, it leaves the conclusion open. It seems the majority here is more convinced that the Andromeda stuff must be a false flag than I am, but that's fine. It still is information, I didn't hear these details before. I guess the makers of the documentary worked together with the German source you mentioned. Ok, back to the actual situation.
  21. I agree, but I shouldn't have to. The Wests 'toolbox' is still much 'better' relatively (better institutions for everyone, less poverty, less brutality, etc), but somehow we have lost part of our marketing/PR advantage; mostly because of our own design. We don't need Putin's toolbox, or rather what would make us different from Putin & co if we utilized the same type?
  22. FWIW in the video and text this subject is addressed; I'd say the complexity of the operation was overestimated / bit of a myth. According to a dive instructor interviewed in the video, who teaches people to dive at the depths involved (70-80m) in the Baltic sea, this is a complicated dive, but not 'overcomplicated' and well doable for experienced divers. It is his dayjob to train people to do this. He told he was laughing a bit when he heard the same things you post on the news after the attacks. They mention minimum of ~50kg of explosive per charge. So a group of 5-6 experienced divers with professional diving equipment could in theory very well have done this from a small boat like that sailing boat. One interesting bit also featured is that one harbour master in the area said that it was quite an achievement to do dives like that without anyone noticing (coastguards, navies). According to the research German police have found traces of the same explosive (HMX) that was used for the attack on a table in the ship, which itself was located after info from the MIVD source. Phone numbers / e-mail addresses involved with hiring of the ship point to Ukrainian individuals. All in all I think it's safe to conclude that either someone really wanted to make it look like Ukraine did it, or Ukraine/Ukrainians did it. The ship involved in the evidence could have well been the ship that did it, but could also be part of a larger effort or just a ruse to make it look like Ukrainians did it.
  23. I certainly don't rule out an FSB plot of 'feeding' info and a trail of evidence pointing towards Ukrainian individuals. And I agree that for national security reasons (especially during wartime although we're not at war) the public doesn't need to know everything. But if such a thing should get out (either in public or as classified info), it will probably be not as happy faces on the next meeting. Anyway if I had to put money on either Russia or Ukraine, in the past I would have put it at Russia with a bit more confidence then I would do now. Perhaps I'd put it on Ukraine, as there are at least some leads pointing there. On the motive side there is no clear cut case either. Anyway let's see if more will be known in the foreseeable future. Might be something that will remain unknown for quite some time.
  24. Calling 15k troop strength an 'entire army' which had been 'missed', sounds a bit dramatized imo. Although obviously 15k troops reinforcing somewhere where one didn't expect them can be 'problem'.
  25. While all media has it's issues with bias at times, even public ones like NOS and Nieuwsuur, I feel it's more farfetched to think they area all (including their European partners) bought by FSB. FWIW the investigative journalism on the side of Nieuwsuur / NOS is usually of a high level. These are publicly governed and funded news organizations providing among other things the public daily journals in The Netherlands (you know but not everyone here). The information from the MIVD is also unlikely to be orchestrated by the FSB, unless one believes our military intelligence is compromised. Anyway, they don't rule out the Ukrainian assets where in some form used / orchestrated from Russia. Without having access to secrets we don't know how credible the MIVD itself think it's source is. Credible enough to act on it, that is for sure. Anyway I think it's dumb to look at this and think 'blablabla Russia is behind it and I won't believe anything else'. At the same time it would be dumb to conclude for certainty, at this time, that the Ukrainian leadership is behind this. There are still many possibilities, but as more information surfaces there is at least some doubt to be cast on the idea 'must be the Russian's. Therefore this again proves that it is always imperative to keep an open mind about uncertain things. Anyway, a 30min video about the findings (some of it is in Dutch): https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/video/2491937-nord-stream-hoe-alle-sporen-leiden-naar-oekraine
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