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poesel

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  1. Like
    poesel reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Cheap-thing-takes-out-expensive-thing is not exactly a fresh hot take. Kipling was writing about that well over a hundred years ago.
    https://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poem/poems_arith.htm
  2. Like
    poesel reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Pavlo Narozhnyi , the founder of "Reaktivna Poshta" and a military expert, gave an interview to the French publication Le Grand Continent.
     
  3. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I can't recall either Kh-101 hit something in the darkness or not. But realy mosty of strikes on Kyiv with these missiles were on the dawn
     
  4. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Putin very visibly blamed US in his speech ("by hands of Kyiv regime"- note, Ukraine is only triggerman here) and in Russian imperial psyche it is not disgraceful to be smashed by superior Yanks. In other words, it was planned and executed by CIA- earlier US warnings will only support this line of thinking. They are read as threats rather than genuine information, even if we actually know now they were taken seriously in many places in Russia:
    https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1772268163775840437
    I am pretty sure that as time goes by we will see more "evidence" and propagandists in Russia and abroad will gradually work on minds of populace. 1-2 years from now heads of half of them will be in this strange, shadowy place Kremlin loves to be in- "Who knows, it's mysterious matter, everybody lies but most probably it's foreign agents".
    Unless more similar acts will follow on behalf of IS-K, and fast, original simple message of islamic terror will be bended, broken and reforged dozen times. Also Kremlin propaganda will be multi-directed like always: Margo Simonyan, Solovyov and other scum will work on Ukraine trace (latter probably soon find out extra lead to UK anyway), Putin will wrestle with heroic geopolitical fight with USA (UA is beyond his dignity), Kadyrov will keep unruly parts of muslims for their faces and perhaps only Lavrov will have new tool to show how Russia suffers from US-sponsored jihadi menace, with wink sended here and there that perhaps they could use it as platform of further cooperation like proper empires should do.
    Things will then likely gradually go back to its natural life cycle in Muscovia. Tsar is taking care fo its flock at the Kremlin, evil nazis are in Ukraine, globalists interests kept outside and their domestic opposition assets jailed. Like God commanded.
  5. Like
    poesel reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    How to take out the Kerch bridge?

    Covertly hijack a nearby Russian ship?
     
     
  6. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Monty's Mighty Moustache in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The beeb has done its verify thing on the narrative coming from the Kremlin: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68657383
  7. Like
    poesel reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's because they are all familiar with the default Combat Mission UI and think that rifles should be green. They are probably wondering if it turns yellow when the owner is injured.
  8. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I've noted before my intimation that the full reform of the Ukrainian military is where its true strategic victory lies - and not into the standard Western /NATO model but true reform that keeps what works from the old, Soviet model combined and transformed into a unique hybrid. I suspect that a military which reflects the the nature of and enables the latent power of the transformed society it springs from will be finally secure from Russia. 
    As an inveterate autocracy, with the particular geography it contains, Russia will only ever have the type of military it's ever had - mass and power. 
    Ukraine, being a society that is something more and different, has a generational opportunity to create a unique defence force. 
     
     
  9. Like
    poesel got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Now that Putin has admitted that ISIS did it, and we axiomatically know that he lies when he speaks. That means, that we now know that it has been an inside job! No more proof needed!
    Just kidding. Of course, it was Ukraine. Obviously, neo-Nazis work together with Islamists. The world is explained so easily.

  10. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from zinz in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Now that Putin has admitted that ISIS did it, and we axiomatically know that he lies when he speaks. That means, that we now know that it has been an inside job! No more proof needed!
    Just kidding. Of course, it was Ukraine. Obviously, neo-Nazis work together with Islamists. The world is explained so easily.

  11. Like
    poesel got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Now that Putin has admitted that ISIS did it, and we axiomatically know that he lies when he speaks. That means, that we now know that it has been an inside job! No more proof needed!
    Just kidding. Of course, it was Ukraine. Obviously, neo-Nazis work together with Islamists. The world is explained so easily.

  12. Like
    poesel got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Now that Putin has admitted that ISIS did it, and we axiomatically know that he lies when he speaks. That means, that we now know that it has been an inside job! No more proof needed!
    Just kidding. Of course, it was Ukraine. Obviously, neo-Nazis work together with Islamists. The world is explained so easily.

  13. Like
    poesel reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Damn! What a huge BOOMs I heard! At least three. Russians launched something fast from Crimea and this something tried to hit center of the city and probably Kyiv hydro energy plant north from the city. My wife has seen SAM launches. This couldn't be Iskander -  too far for Crimea, either N.Korean sh...t or Onix-M (800 km). Reportedly all missiles were intercepted, debrises of onе of them fell down in central part of Kyiv. 
  14. Like
    poesel reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rare footage of tank vs. tank battle in this war. One UKR tank of 53rd mech.brigade as claimed hit three Russian tanks near Tonen'ke village (Avdiivka area). As for me that which marked on the video as "2" and "3" is the same tank. 
     
  15. Like
    poesel reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Weeeeeeeee! 
     
  16. Like
    poesel reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  17. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Scheme of today's missile strike. 
    Red - Kh-101, purple - Kh-59, yellow - Shaheds, green - Kh-22, blue - Kinzhal, orange - ballistic (Iskander/S-300) 

    It was strongest attack since the end of 2022 with heavy consequenses.
    Russians used in mass those types of misisles, which can't be intercepted by more weak AD of eastern cities. 
    This was posted here today, but I repeat if somebody skipped it:
    63 Shaheds - 55 shot down
    2 Kh-59 - 2
    12 Iskander-M - 0
    22 S-300 - 0
    40 Kh-101 - 35
    5 Kh-22 - 0 
    7 Kh-47 Kinzhal - 0 (according unconfirmed info one Kinzhal, passing north of Kyiv oblast on route to Khmelnitskyi, was engaged with Patriot missile, but interception wasn't successful)
     
    Most bad situation in Kharkiv - the city was hit with 20 S-300 missiles from Belgorod  and remained completely out of electricity
    In Zaporizhzhia except GES-1 and GES-2 hit (GES-2 got heavy damages, GES - hydro energy plant), which were hit with 8 different misiles, about 450 private and multistorey buildings got different damages
    On the photo - aftermath of missile impact in private cottages district of Zaporizhzhia

    In Khmelnitskiy also missile and Shaheds caused destructions and civilain deaths 

    Total number of victims - 5 killed, 3 missed, not less 30 wounded.
    At the evening Russians launched one more Iskander-M on power infrastructure object near Odesa. So, in 8 oblasts of Ukraine there were partial electricity cutting off 
     
     
  18. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Good points from guy from intelligence specialising in Russian securty topics, naturally just observations, not analysis despite first sentence:
    https://twitter.com/Maciej_Korowaj/status/1771250686065328470
    MASSACRE IN MOSkVA - own analysis All the following assumptions are based on my own experience and observation of open Russian sources. The first factor is a lot of "good filming" of materials and the speed of appearance on the Russian network strongly reminds me of the информационный каскад "information cascades" way of promoting information by the Russian services... Let us remember that the Russian network is heavily controlled by Moscow. Another is the time of carrying out the operation, i.e. right after the president's post-election position was established, which indicates that it would not cause image problems during the elections. The actions of the Russian services and the means used to control the situation indicate that these services were very well prepared for this particular operation (which is not the Russian rule). I noticed the lack of the typical "healthy nervousness" in the operation of special units, which indicates that they were previously ready for this type of operation... I estimate that if this was an operation of "Putin's opponents" or "armed opposition" it would have had a greater impact during the elections... than now From a cold perspective, this points to "False Flag" operations and of course there are questions about how it will be sold in the media in Russia and around the world... The Russians are building tension and the message is spreading to the world. Best regards and thank you.   It may not be relevant who is perpetrator, but how Kremlin plans to use it.
  19. Like
    poesel reacted to Hapless in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shooting-blast-reported-concert-hall-near-moscow-agencies-2024-03-22/

    Quick tinfoil hat take:

    Putin secures election 'legitimacy'
    Peskov says it's no longer a Special Military Operation, it's a War
    Terror attack in Moscow
    ...
    Mobilisation
  20. Like
    poesel reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    UKR soldier in anti-thermal sight poncho. By feedback from soldiers it really masks from thermal sights unveling and they several times could approach to enemy positions in the night unspotted until the last moment. Main issues - the fabric is too rustles during crawling and it damn hot in this poncho. 

  21. Like
    poesel reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The work of pyrotechnicians of State Emergency Service this morning in Kyiv - they loaded an unexploded Kh-101 warhead, moved it out of the city and blew up. You can watch a process. Settlers of this house can celebrete own second birthday
     
  22. Like
    poesel reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's because the attack was all directed on Kyiv with strongest AD shield in Ukraine. If each city had the same protection, the total result would be like this.
    It was at 5:00 I heard two Patriots launches, then heavy boom so windows shaken. It was Kinzhal or Iskander interception - it came from NE direction, were my district is located, so interception of ballistic missiles add some adrenaline %) Then, since 5 minutes one more (aero)ballistic target was destroyed, but slightly further. Then I heard 2-3 distant booms - all other missiles flew from western direction and were intercepted there - it's too far from me. 
     But anyway, several Kh-101 were intercepted over the city and hit the ground in residental areas  - 12 citizens were wounded. Damaged several buildings, one workshop, kindergarden, church, local power substation. Several cars burnt. 
    Here fragment of missile impacted on the street not far from one of specific object %) and damaged buildings around - probably warhead detonated. 


    Here of course "underground command bunker was destroyed" )))

    People of this house were really lucky...

    ... Because warhead of intercepted Kh-101 fell down directly near the building and didn't explode

    Of course, Russian MoD made a statement "the strike, including Kinzhal missiles was performed on decision making centers - all targets were hit". Ok. 390 millions USD to nowhere. Rich country...
  23. Like
    poesel reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yay 
  24. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is a conversation I've had with my dad (he's a philosophy professor). When is it fair to blame someone for their actions, vs when do the circumstances around the action (mental health, broken home, etc...) add up to the point where it is no longer fair to blame someone? My father considers himself a pragmatist, so it should come as no surprise that his answer is that you should direct moral blame against someone when it works. His view is that the purpose of moral blame is to change a person's behavior. Humans are generally social creatures, so having a bunch of other humans telling them that they shouldn't do a thing should generally make them less likely to do that thing again in the future. Healthy humans are usually very uncomfortable with a bunch of other humans strongly disapproving of their actions.
    He uses a thermostat as an example. If the room is too cold, you adjust the thermostat. If the thermostat is broken, then adjusting it won't work. So there is no point in trying to adjust it. If someone does something that we think they shouldn't do, we leverage moral blame to get them to stop doing it (and to deter other people from doing it in the first place). But if a person's brain is broken to the point that moral blame is no longer effective at getting them to stop doing the thing they shouldn't do, then there is no point in blaming them for doing that thing (I believe our discussion at the time was mainly about mental health).
    So, when do the circumstances around an action add up to the point that it's no longer fair to blame a person for their actions? According to my father, it's when the circumstances around the action add up to the point that no amount of moral blame will be effective in deterring someone from doing that thing again under similar circumstances.
    So, by this logic, can we blame the population of a country for their actions? Maybe? I think there is some precedent for aggressive ad campaigns saying "you shouldn't do the thing!" getting the population of a country to do a thing at lower rates. I doubt there's much we can do to change the behavior of the Russian population, simply because I don't think western media has enough penetration into Russian society. In any case, moral blame is certainly a much fuzzier concept for populations than it is for individual people.
  25. Like
    poesel reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I dunno.  My cat was really aggressive and peeing all over the place.  Then I got him "fixed" and he behaves a whole lot better.
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