sburke

Italy just kicked out 30 Russian diplomats. We are up to 230 so far in the EU.

the massacre in Bucha has had a lot of knock-on effects that are really bad for Putin including in China. China isn't quite the monolith we tend to see it as nor is it as confident as an external viewer may think. China's social dynamic is a bit like Russia's in the sense that there is a social contract more or less that as long as most people see economic improvement, they are willing to accept a lot. Problem is that contract is shaky with some of the demographics China is facing. Chinese Citizens Decry Bucha Killings on Social Media (msn.com)

This came recommended from Scott Coulson Behind the Front Lines, Russia’s Military Struggles to Supply Its Forces - WSJ

Every time I think I am getting a bit hardened to the reality of how brutal this war is I see something else that just leaves me gaping.

it is 150 km from Belgorod to Izium that passes by Kharkov. Assuming at a minimum they have to secure 3 km on each side of their supply route that is 450 sq km they need to establish control over. (that is just accounting for AT teams not arty) Assuming the northern pincer has a goal of Kramatorsk that is almost another 60 km. Mariupol is about 180 km from Kramatorsk. Russia could try to dig in, but they simply don't have the manpower. Assuming they could even pull off an advance of that length. Every km Russia advances is just that much more ground they have to secure for an increasingly tenuous and vulnerable supply line.

Like these guys? Conscripts sent to fight by pro-Russia Donbas get little training, old rifles, poor supplies - sources (msn.com)

I'm beyond the point of trying to guess why etc on this. problem is my brain can't wrap itself around how anyone could do this and therefore searches for brutal but logical reasons and honestly, I think that is inherently flawed. I can't think like these guys so there is no way I'll be able to hit their reasoning state. They are just fkn animals.

Germany Expels 40 Russian Diplomats With Suspected Spy-Agency Links (msn.com)

Finland Races Toward Likely NATO Membership as Putin's Warnings Backfire (msn.com)

I hear there is some honkin big bridge down there somewhere

yep Some of them are organized into specific units. How Belarusian Fighters in Ukraine Evolved Into Prominent Force Against Russian Invasion (voanews.com)

Maybe this guy? Lt Colonel Mikhail Orchikov was deputy commander of a motor-rifle brigade 19th motor-rifle division

Ukrainian Civilians Kill Russian Soldiers With Poisoned Cakes: Report (msn.com) loot this

I think we are well past looking at the "logical" thing. Heck the entire war doesn't seem logical, and yet Putin ordered it. The brutality is commonplace. They have openly mistreated people including firing on protestors against the occupation in other Ukrainian cities, bombing hospitals clearly marked as civilian refuge places. While I am angered by the crimes displayed in Bucha, I am not surprised. It is one with the behavior exhibited by the Russian army in the rest of this war, by its activities in Syria and its actions against its own dissidents. As Maya Angelou said When people show you who they are, believe them the first time.

Another one from David Axe at Forbes. This guy actually does good reporting This one is on the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment. To note he points out the unit fought around Bucha and has a history of atrocities. The Ukrainians Have Nearly Destroyed One Of The Russian Army’s Best Regiments (msn.com)

Yep I play them all at various times depending on something that will trigger me. Reading a book, seeing a pic. the trigger may vary.

Gonna take a pretty huge arse barrel to scrape up enough to make up for those losses.

this is actually pretty funny Russia vows to target British weapons as UK missile downs helicopter (msn.com) What the heck does that even mean? "We are going to target them by flying helicopters at them!!"

The problem in the Russian army as noted isn't that there are a few examples, but rather it is systemic. It's like the medieval raids of the English into France during the 100 years war or viking raids in terms of the looting etc. It is a reflection of an army with utterly no discipline. No wonder they fight like.. excrement. They aren't soldiers. They are thugs in uniforms. Adam Kinzinger Shares Video of Russian Soldiers Allegedly Mailing Loot Home (msn.com)

I don't think we know actually how much damage was done to the Russians in retreat. There is certainly a large amount of smashed armor, indications of guys abandoning loot etc. There was a video early on when Russia pulled back from Bucha, the Ukrainians first checked the area by drone and waited a day. Could be a tactical reason, mobility issue., Russian mines and booby traps. I definitely don't think it was a deal that would preserve Russian troops.

You are categorically wrong there. That is exactly what has happened. Russia has not ordered a full mobilization and already has an issue with conscripts refusing to serve in Ukraine. There are very sharp political reasons for that. Will Putin go that far? Possibly. The risks are extreme and likely require he actually declare it a war by Russian statute. Assuming he does that, will it make a difference? Mobilizing even more untrained cannon fodder with military hardware that may not even work? The DPR/LNR guys and the Ossetians have already complained about being used as cannon fodder. Again we are talking about a 300 mile front line. I am not sure how many square kilometers that translates to. The numbers just don't work.

Which history? Afghanistan? WW 1? There is only so long the mythology of Napoleon and WW2 holds. Russia doesn't have any serious allies nor a western alliance providing supplies. They have what they brought and what they brought has been kicked in the face. There is no previous experience in Russia to compare with what is happening now. either way the next week or two should tell the story.

I think you are giving the Russian army far too much credit considering what it was able to accomplish when it was in a lot better shape and had some amount of tactical surprise... and hadn't been massacring Ukrainians till they were white hot with rage against Russia. Russia even if it could force the line back hasn't the troops to hold it and resupply. It is as unrealistic as any of the previous 8 plans Russia has had. Holding a position in a city perforce means you have to take it first.

sorry, we're gonna have to kill you now.

well prepared positions? You realize Izium to Kherson is over 300 miles of front in hostile territory? Comparing the Russian advance to the Dnieper in 1944 to the current situation is so flawed an analogy I don't even know where to start.