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rocketman

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  1. Like
    rocketman reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    your attempt to play the both-siderism game is pathetic and shows an incredible amount of ignorance, both in historic and in current events.  What Gingerich did was completely unprecedented.  What McConnell did was completely unprecedented.  And Trump is off the charts for breaking both norms and laws.  ANd where on the left are the insane ones that are wielding power?   Where's the dem Matt Gaetz?  MTGreene?  American democracy is on the brink and it is due to one side and one side only.  Guess what --  Biden won't attempt to throw the country into a civil war to unlawfully try to cling to power.  Trump's been doing that for last 4 years, including a full on mob-coup attempt that left people dead.  So just WTF are you even talking about?  Clearly you've been watching Hannity or some other bull**** monger and now you are parroting their bulls--t.
    So stop watching Fox & newsmax.  It makes you look like a damn fool.
    Oh, and please respond by telling me how it's the dems fault the GOP held up UKR aid for 3 months.  Dems aint the ones on Putin's payroll.  
     
  2. Like
    rocketman reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine this night conducted large drone attack on Russian infrastructure objects with at least 50 drones, including jet ones. This was combined operation of SBU, GUR and SOF
    Russian side as usual claimed all drones were shot down/supressed, BUT:
    Most successful attack was on "Lukoil" and "Nyeftyanika" companies oil depots near Kardymovo village in Smolensk oblast. Both bases, standing side-by-side were set on fire. This is transit oil bases - Russian oil accumulates here before transporting on Belarusian refineries and then a gas and other products mostly go back to Russian market.

     

    Locals also reported in TG they heard a sound of jet engine and explosion in area of Smolensk aviation plant. This object, which specialized on light aircraft and Kh-59 missiles producing already was hit by a drone in November 2023
    In Vygonichi, Briansk oblast power substation was hit

    Staryi Oskol, Belgorod oblast - also reportedly power object was hit
    Reportedly a fire on power substation in Ufa, Bashjortostan Republic, but this is 1500 km from Ukraine. Maybe technical failure or diversion

     
  3. Like
    rocketman reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is potentially worse than that.  This sort of dysfunction does nothing but feed anti-democracy sentiment.  Democracies die due to abandonment, history demonstrates this quite well.  If the system is seen as "unworkable" democracies often choose suicide.  This is the threat to the US and global stability.  Trump and Greene are symptoms of something far deeper and dangerous....apathy that leads to despair.
  4. Like
    rocketman reacted to Fenris in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Another area of development with this conflict - new ways to strike strategically
     
  5. Like
    rocketman reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The West is watching...
  6. Like
  7. Like
    rocketman reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Supposedly russia broke their record with confirmed vehicle losses in a single day. 

  8. Like
    rocketman reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I can tell you from painful personal experience that you can be bleeping near crippled from long COVID while every test they can think to run comes back negative. On some level Havana Syndrome is same kind of the same thing. 
  9. Like
    rocketman reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russia's actions are intended for western consumption. The west is being shown that 1. Russia is inexhaustible, thru constant offensives, 2. Russia retains capabilities to inflict terror on all of Ukraine, 3. Russia's terror is emerging, ala war crimes and breakdown of prior standards.
    This is designed to both demotivate western civilians and policymakers to abandon Ukraine.
    AND ITS WORKING. The Speaker of the House should be fired. The cowardly Republican House deserves to lose in November on the mere basis that while the majority of Americans support Ukraine, majority of Republicans support Ukraine, majority of Senate Rs support Ukraine, they themselves support Ukraine, we have endured months and months of delays for no good reason.
  10. Like
    rocketman reacted to omae2 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is where cultural differences come into play. You thinking like a westerner that has to be consistent in what hes saying. You don't get that this isn't the case in russia. The bigger the confusion the bigger the control. This is why i say that they will make twist on this that in the end will make no sense. Cause if its make no sense you will only remember the calling words. Ukraine was involved, and the feeling you should have that is hate. Every aspect of russian propaganda is based on building down rationality and enforcing emotional response. They aware that its hard influence rational peoples so they don't need them. They need instinct driven animals.
    It does not matter that it was a fault of their home defense service. Cause they will not be held responsible.
    The other thing is the narrative. It does not matter.  really don't want to come with cliches but in 1984 there is a scene where they have the two minutes of hate. You know the story in the first part of the two minutes they saying one thing and in the end they say the exact opposite. Its true today as well. There are some peoples in the russian society that can have individual opinion and some influence but usually they are far away in Ukraine. Those back home are don't have influence or first hand experience to know what its true. Its an alternative reality. So it does not matter if the narrative does not fit the picture, only that it push the right button on the primitive parts of the human brain.
  11. Like
    rocketman reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think this one is far trickier than first glance.  If Putin spins this as somehow a US/Ukrainian operation then he looks weak and incompetent.  This was downtown Moscow, not some outer berg.  This is clearly a security failure so pinning it on a war opponent makes that opponent look competent and effective.  This is counter narratives of “we are winning in Ukraine” which they have been continually pushing.  So while it may drive support into Putin’s arms for the war, it may very well create a lot of doubt as to his ability to protect Russian in this war.  
    In fact a terror attack is just about the worst false flag op to run here.  A massive explosion complete with ATACMs debris along with dozens of others “shot down” makes far more sense.  An asymmetric terror attack by a few armed gunman simply looks and feels like bad housekeeping and a massive intel failure, no matter how hard one tries to spin it.
    I have no doubt they will link this back to Ukraine, but already here this is a soft link. “Ukraine was providing haven, but did not mastermind the whole thing.”  I am sure the real wingnuts will come up with all sorts of conspiracy theories but in the end Putin cannot lay this entirety at the feet of Ukraine without making Ukraine look much scarier and effective.  So what will be interesting is whether or not he does.  If he does, then things are likely worse internally for Russia than we can see.  He is willing to take the risk of making Ukraine look like they “got in a good one” because support is seriously flagging and he needs to leverage this any way he can.  If they downplay and sidestep, things might be tighter and more stable  because Putin is not entirely backed into a corner.
    Putin has already called Ukraine “Nazi-terrorists” it was his entire excuse for the war.  Demonstrating of given credence to just how effective Ukraine still is at being as such, after two years of war, really runs counter to the entire Russian narrative thus far.
  12. Like
    rocketman reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This news, though it was again from "anonymous source" summoned a huge wave of hate in Ukraine. Especially on background of today's heavy strike. 
    Despite President's Office rejected US warned Ukraine to stop strikes we can see there are no strikes in about a week on Russian refineries. Also journalists of "Voice of America" Ukrainian branch officially asked White House to comment the article in FT. The answer was very blurred and contained the phrase "we don't encourage attacks inside the Russia" (well, I imagine 1941 and White House, which don't encourage Britain strikes inside Germany). 
    I think, after today's disaster, we have to blow Russian refieries and energy infrastructure with double force. It's more and more opinions here that US doesn't want a victory of Ukraine. These limited weapon supply after the peak in December 2022 is just for "not allow Ukriane to lose", but not to "Ukrainian victory". Last speech of Sullivan, where he pointed out "victory conditions" for Ukraine - "if Ukriane keeps ittelsf as democracy state bla-bla-bla"... but without pointing out in what borders. 
    What we can expect from the country which even can't do nothinbg with Huthi attacks and asking China to influence on them (!!!)

     
     
  13. Like
    rocketman reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    UKR soldier in anti-thermal sight poncho. By feedback from soldiers it really masks from thermal sights unveling and they several times could approach to enemy positions in the night unspotted until the last moment. Main issues - the fabric is too rustles during crawling and it damn hot in this poncho. 

  14. Like
    rocketman reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Kh-101, intercepted in Kyiv oblast this morning with Browning HMG by mobile AD group
     
  15. Like
    rocketman reacted to Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Looks like the AD did a good job if true?
    Hopefully it didn't disturb our friends in Ukraine?
  16. Like
    rocketman reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yay 
  17. Like
    rocketman reacted to Vet 0369 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As I implied before, it was another case of conformational bias. The Japanese Command considered everyone who was not them to be inferior and didn’t believe that the “Gaijin” or barbarians, could possibly outsmart the superior intellect of the Imperial High Command. Unfortunately, virtually ALL of the nations involved in war think exactly the same thing. It is amazing that after millenniums of warfare, Military Commanders continue to make the mistake of underestimating their opponent.
    And that same racism continues to this day by and of virtually every culture in the world.
    Also, the fact that the Imperial Navy Codes were broken much earlier and allowed the USN to spoof the Japanese Imperial Navy to inadvertently reveal the target was Midway, and the disposition of their forces. All because of the High Command believing that the code was unbreakable. I don’t know how “accurate” it was, but a best friend of my Father’s, who was Navy radio communications in the Pacific during the war, told me that the code was based on a dial telephone key dial (not necessarily a dial in English, but one in Japanese Kanji).
  18. Like
    rocketman reacted to Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is a conversation I've had with my dad (he's a philosophy professor). When is it fair to blame someone for their actions, vs when do the circumstances around the action (mental health, broken home, etc...) add up to the point where it is no longer fair to blame someone? My father considers himself a pragmatist, so it should come as no surprise that his answer is that you should direct moral blame against someone when it works. His view is that the purpose of moral blame is to change a person's behavior. Humans are generally social creatures, so having a bunch of other humans telling them that they shouldn't do a thing should generally make them less likely to do that thing again in the future. Healthy humans are usually very uncomfortable with a bunch of other humans strongly disapproving of their actions.
    He uses a thermostat as an example. If the room is too cold, you adjust the thermostat. If the thermostat is broken, then adjusting it won't work. So there is no point in trying to adjust it. If someone does something that we think they shouldn't do, we leverage moral blame to get them to stop doing it (and to deter other people from doing it in the first place). But if a person's brain is broken to the point that moral blame is no longer effective at getting them to stop doing the thing they shouldn't do, then there is no point in blaming them for doing that thing (I believe our discussion at the time was mainly about mental health).
    So, when do the circumstances around an action add up to the point that it's no longer fair to blame a person for their actions? According to my father, it's when the circumstances around the action add up to the point that no amount of moral blame will be effective in deterring someone from doing that thing again under similar circumstances.
    So, by this logic, can we blame the population of a country for their actions? Maybe? I think there is some precedent for aggressive ad campaigns saying "you shouldn't do the thing!" getting the population of a country to do a thing at lower rates. I doubt there's much we can do to change the behavior of the Russian population, simply because I don't think western media has enough penetration into Russian society. In any case, moral blame is certainly a much fuzzier concept for populations than it is for individual people.
  19. Like
    rocketman reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Free-Russia fighters of RVC in NE part of Kozinka village. Russian tank got projectille in side, but, alas, too close range, the HEAT hadn't time to activate.
    Graivoron district of Belgorod oblast completely out of electricity - power substation was destroyed.

    Suddenly - Romanian volunteer unit "Getica" operates in Belgorod oblast (on the video you can hear Romanian language). Tank with LRL flag also has seen as well as Ukrainian tanks
    Belgorod is gradually turning out into Kharkiv 2022. Deficite of food in supermarkets is beginning, people either hide in houses or flee from the city. Attack on Belgorod oblast is sensetive blow on Russian economy. Belgorod oblast is one of not many prospering regions of Russia. It gives to country many of meat (especially pork and chicken) - up to 11% of total production, milk, sunflower oil (up to 16 %), 39 % of iron ore, here concentraten many machine-building factories, so this turmoils and "uncertainity" (C) can undermine production, trade and taxes, which Belgorod gives to central budget
        
     
    Interesting in Russia, which always was showing how "Kievan junta 8 years have been bombing Donbas" there is alsmost full censorship on what now happening in Belgorod oblast. Russian VKontakte social media started to block and delete posts and comments od Belgorod citizens about shelligs, destructions and hard life in the city. Hordes of bots actively deny any successes of free-Russia forces in border villages
  20. Like
    rocketman reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    “Why didn’t they just fly the Giant Eagles all the way to Mordor?”
    ”ISR Billy, ISR”.
  21. Like
    rocketman reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ref economic grind:
     
     
  22. Like
  23. Like
    rocketman reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is amazing what happens when you pay cash in hard currency. 
    Edit: And the Czech President deserves a top job at NATO or the EU for getting this one edit: done! In midst of and endless blathering panic he has gotten shells on trains and headed to the front.
  24. Like
    rocketman reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yet more? 
     
  25. Like
    rocketman reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Operation in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts still under a fog of war. 
    Today we had only free-Russian fighters "presentation" of 25 captured enemies, among them was platoon commander of 45th engineer-sapper brigade of Western military district, which unit set minefield, was attacked and destroyed. 
    Free-Russia fighters wrote, Russian aviation is dropping many KABs/FABs on own villages and settlements, and its number is more that was in Bakhmut.  
    Russian milbliggers became more pessimistic (therea are no more reports about completely repelled attack) - they report  about fierce clashes, especially in Kozinka and Spodariushyno. Graivoron is under artillery shelling. Belgorod is under periodical MLRS strikes and... under fallings of Pantsyr S1 launch stages. For today more than a dozen buildings got damages, were destroyed and damaged more than two dozens of cars
      
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