Mike Churchmoor

https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/30664/ukraine-battlefield-dynamics-manpower-fortifications-and-ammunition/
My notes:
They made another trip to UKR front lines. They are doing these around every 3months. 
Ukraine's Challenges: Ukraine faces a triple threat with manpower, fortifications, and ammunition shortages. Mobilization remains stalled at political level, hindering long-term force generation. This decision also has a long lead time to effects on the battlefield Last year we saw you cannot make brigades in couple of months  Fortifications are being worked on now, but only lately. Ammunition depends on external factors like US aid and Europe commitment drones are going to help to bridge the gap to an extent. These problems are the same as last trip three months ago. Ukraine leadership changes are still an unknown. Generally seems the leadership is on the same page about the main challenges as the front line troops The war is at an intersection. Many things can go either way, US support, UKR mobilization... Depending on these the war can change radically. Even a Harkiv-style collapse for the Ukrainians is not out of the question on the "bad timelines".  Overly extended summer offensive and pointless commitment of reserves to those attacks have depleted Ukraine Especially Ukrainian infantry has been under extreme strain, battalion might be in OK condition but only have a couple of platoons of fully mission-capable infantry.  Unlikely to see any strategic level offensives from the Ukrainians in 2024  Some Russian challenges:   Russian Force Quality: While a concern in 2023, Russia has demonstrated a capacity to sustain casualties and maintain a baseline level of force quality. This has been shown in practice during the summers stubborn defense and the bloody assaults we are now seeing. UKR has reported increased discipline and executions by the RU Manpower: So far Russia has been able to compensate for it casualties with recruitment. This has been surprisingly successful. Several 100k last year and now in the tens of thousands a month. Unkown how long Russia can keep up. If they cannot a new mobilization wave is going to be required. Equipment availability: Main limiting factor for the Russians at this moment. Ukraine's Evolving Tactics: Shortage of Soviet-era AA ammunition is a major concern. and now also western ammunition  UKR is having increasing success with small mobile AA defenses (MANPADS, AAA, HMG) supported by well integrated sensors and coordination. This is against RU cruise missiles and suicide drones. Especially in parts of the front UKR is developing integration of assets, intelligence and troops to a whole new level. Big steps compared to three months ago Drone war moving more towards competition in quality and integration rather than quantity. 
Ukraine Battlefield Dynamics Manpower, Fortifications, and Ammunition.mp3

Hi,
As a Swede I thought today would be a good day to stop lurking for a bit and drop a comment. Been playing cm for 20 years and following this forum for a long time.
Thank you all for contributing to this thread, checking it daily. Always a good source for news and discussion, so much knowledge and experience gathered is hard to get elsewhere. 
I always was all for our countrys neutral stance combined with a strong Defense but last decade has of course swayed us all in Sweden a bit. I have my background in the army, cv90. Seeing us finally start to retake our capabilities regarding defense is good.
Anyways thanks for having us in the club I guess (why am I thinking about brothers Marx)?
Carl 

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

2. Tokmаk direction...
Over the past few days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping operating in this direction has clearly, let’s say, “cast some doubt” on the thesis that is now quite widespread among experts that it has allegedly “run out of steam.”
And although the volume of this activity clearly does not entail any drastic changes and does not exceed the tactical level, the very fact of this already indicates that it is too early to put a “bold” end in this direction, at least formally. ..
In particular, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had limited success in the direction of the village of Novopokrovka, north-west of the village of Verbovoye, and also west of the village of Rabotino, in particular:
- The enemy’s 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade, obviously, was forced to leave its forward positions in at least two forest belts to the west of the village of Rabotino...
- North-west of the village of Verbovoye, Ukrainian units, apparently, finally managed to knock out the enemy from one important height from a tactical point of view (elevation - 140)
- Ukrainian units, also operating along the N-08 road, apparently came close to the western and southwestern outskirts of the village of Novopokrovka. In fact, the enemy on this side continues to hold only one forest belt south of the village.
Also, it is worth mentioning that in the most important area in the area of the village of Novoprokopovka and east of it, the enemy was also forced, after a series of counterattacks, to retreat to their fortified positions at the first position of their main line of defense, where the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had not yet overcome it.. including in the area of two key heights for this direction with elevation. – 160 and 170.
As we see, the meaning of the extreme activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in the Tokmak direction is 2 things.
- expanding its penetration on the flanks...
- and also, the solution to the “Novoprokopovka issue”
The Russians understand all this well, therefore... they are holding on with all their might to those sections of the first position of their main line of defense between Novoprokopovka and Verbove, which they still hold... forcedly concentrating their main forces and means here.
It is obvious that they clearly do not like the alternative, in the form of Ukrainian units bypassing the village of Novoprokopovka from the east...
Another feature of this direction that is worth mentioning... is the presence of a "real horde" of Russian formations of territorial troops, read - mainly "mobs"...
There are 6 such formations (meaning regiments of territorial troops) deployed here at once, + another 4 semi-combat-ready battalions of the BARS type, as well as a Rogozin unit together with the 249th motorized battalion "Akhmat-Yug" ... and some DPR police from the "Cascade" battalion...
As far as I understand, the enemy’s main “defensive” force here is the units and subunits of his 42nd Motorized Rifle Division from the 58th Army, as well as its headquarters controlling them. The rest are helping them... including a couple of regiments of the 7th, 76th Airborne Division and the 44th Airborne Division of the Mobilization Reserve...

A short overview of the situation on the Kherson bridgehead and near Rabotin from Mr. Mashovets

1. Crimean - Dnieper direction...
Obviously, the enemy command has so far refused to bring into battle the main forces of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, as well as the 7th Airborne Assault Division, at the first position of its main defense line along the Oleshki-Novaya Kakhovka coastal road.
At the moment, from the 70th division, only the 26th motorized rifle regiment is directly brought into battle, another - the 24th motorized rifle regiment, deployed in the second echelon of the enemy tactical group of forces, operating in the direction of Podstepnoe and Peschanovka, north of Radensk... The remaining units and subunits of the formation are probably concentrated in the Kliny - Druzhnoe - Skadovka - Petropavlovka area, around the villages of Tarasovka and Brylovka (28th motorized rifle regiment, 17th tank regiment and 81st self-propelled artillery regiment). , at least one consolidated division (sadn) of the latter, nevertheless, operates towards the village of Krynki, supporting the 26th infantry regiment.
              The 7th Airborne Division has so far brought into battle only the 171st Airborne Assault Battalion in the Poima-Antonovsky railway bridge direction. There is some information about the movement of units of the 56th Airborne Assault Regiment of this division to the Crimean-Tavrian direction, but so far our group (IS) has not found objective evidence regarding this... The remaining units of the 7th Airborne Division deployed in this direction ( The 104th tank battalion and the 162nd separate reconnaissance battalion + division headquarters) are probably concentrated in the Marchenko - Chernaya Dolina - Magdalinovka - Morozovka area.
              Thus, it becomes clear that while the enemy is acting against the forward bridgeheads of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank of the river. Dnieper, currently with limited forces:
- part of the forces of the 49th combined arms army - 205th separate motorized rifle brigade
- part of the forces of the 18th Combined Arms Army - 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade, 2 regiments of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division (24th and 26th), separate units of the 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade
- part of the forces of the 40th Army Corps (AK) - 144th separate motorized rifle brigade
- as well as a number of “attached” forces and means - the 171st infantry battalion, the 177th separate marine regiment and at least 3 motorized rifle regiments of territorial troops, 3 separate battalions of the BARS type, territorial troops and mobilization reserve, concentrated mainly in the area of Oleshki and the village of Cossack Camps.
There is also as yet unverified information about the deployment to the south of the village. Korsunka (directly behind the Shtorm-z) of at least one battalion of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade. But, obviously, with further negative developments in the situation in the coastal zone, the command of the enemy group of forces “Dnepr” will immediately try to increase its efforts in these directions.         
 In the meantime, in the near future, we can expect intensive “tests” of the enemy by the above forces; if not liquidate the Ukrainian bridgeheads, then at least significantly reduce them in size, block and isolate them...
First of all, the enemy will obviously try to interrupt the logistical support of advanced Ukrainian units and their replenishment...

Quite nice news article by Yle (the Finnish public service media company) mainly about Russian's military bases near Finland, but also equipment sent to Ukraine:
https://yle.fi/a/74-20049340
 

Quite nice news article by Yle (the Finnish public service media company) mainly about Russian's military bases near Finland, but also equipment sent to Ukraine:
https://yle.fi/a/74-20049340
 

That is old footage and situation at the border is relatively normal.
Check --> https://twitter.com/MPitkaniitty/status/1572824974376960000
Before going back to lurking mode big thanks to everyone contributing to this thread! It has been and it is my main source of INT concerning the situation in hand in eastern Europe.

That is old footage and situation at the border is relatively normal.
Check --> https://twitter.com/MPitkaniitty/status/1572824974376960000
Before going back to lurking mode big thanks to everyone contributing to this thread! It has been and it is my main source of INT concerning the situation in hand in eastern Europe.

The girl - commander of SP-howitzer
 

Unit of VUC Right Sector - sniper with Finnish SAKO rifle

1. WeGo because I'm used to it.

2. WeGo because winning the game is not related to my reflexes in any way.

3. WeGo because of replay possibility.

4. WeGo because my multiplaying sessions are pbem only (lack of free time :mad:).