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womble

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Posts posted by womble

  1. 1 hour ago, Seminole said:

    Imagine instead of a tactical nuke on Russian soil they put a city killer into Lvov, with a promise of more to follow if Ukraine refuses to submit.  

    What are the chances of the transport system actually delivering a viable nuke to whatever target the Russians pick, given the ABM/AD capabilities currently deployed in Ukraine? Less than 100% I'd suggest, and sending a city-killer and it not going off gets them the same international response as if it detonates, with no intimidation effect whatsoever, just anger and determination turned up from 11 to about 200 on a scale of 1 to 10.

  2. 1 hour ago, Probus said:

    I'm not saying you are wrong at all, but remember what we all thought about Ukraine's ability to hold out against the Russians in Feb 2022. We were all taken by surprise at the tenacity of the Ukrainian defense. 

    I think this is a good point. The troops that have crossed the border are, I would gather, pretty battle-hardened. They don't know the terrain as well as Ukraine's defenders in the early days did; the local territorial units have the home ground advantage. And all the airpower Russia's got hanging about can be brought to bear largely unopposed, so it'll be as effective as the Russian ISR can permit. But I wouldn't be surprised if some of the locals get a serious beating if the raiders decide to. So long as they don't hang about too long to take pictures with NLAWed BMPs, they should be able to slip away ahead of any CAS response. I don't think they can sustain their presence for long, but they have the potential to do some acute propaganda-worthy combat damage.

  3. 9 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

    The Commandant now directly to the Secretary of the Navy to whom the CNO also reports. So, by extension, it appears that the CNO has the Navy, and the Commandant has the Marine Corps.

    I'd think SecNav/DoN was "The Navy" top dog... so the floaty-fighty ones and the jarheads are both still Navy... Even if the Marines and Navy are equals on the Joint Chiefs. Similar arrangement in DoA, too, with the Army and the  National Guard both having seats on the JCS.

  4. 20 minutes ago, sburke said:

    Maybe in the next aid package they can include funding for a Black Sea module - "Civil war in Russia".  With BFs track record that might be enough to push Putin over the edge.

    I suspect the pros have probably set up the parameters for that in "Professional" versions... Any reciprocity agreements for out-of-date technical specs as set up in Pro to be sent to BFC for inclusion in future product? :)

  5. 6 minutes ago, sburke said:

    I understand your point, but going back to Haiduk's post, I think most folks have taken a harder position either for or against and these items do not have the impact they might once have had.  They really aren't going to move the needle much.  Russia has been way too blatant and the folks who are on the fence will always have an excuse for not opposing Russia that have nothing to do with Ukrainian actions.

    The needle doesn't have to move much. Margins in elections are generally tight enough that autocrats can quibble... 

  6. 3 minutes ago, sburke said:

    heh.  I have no problem figuring out who the real fascists are in this war.  Someone points out a unit badge in UA.  Then I see Wagner taking a sledgehammer to people, the butchery in Bucha and so many other places, keeping recruits who don't want to be a stupid human wave being kept in pits, deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure etc etc.

    That, Mr Burke, is because, for all your protests about senescence setting in, you remain sharp-minded. There are a lot of dullards out there* who will not look past what they're told, by people who have myopic vision themselves whose interests do not align with those of Ukraine.

    * By "out there" I mean "beyond this forum".

    p.s. While I'm addressing the point directly, this isn't really aimed at sburke, more as a hopeful dig to remind others that not everyone sees things the way "we" do, even as generally as that can be a true statement, and that those people have, or seek, with some prospect of attaining, power.

  7. 8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    We fihgt not for abstract "bright future", not for "EU membership" and even not for "western liberal values". We fight for own survival first of all. Like a state and like nation. All other - membership, values, "shield of Europe" maybe also important too, but secondary. So, either somebody want this or not, in this war of senses we will use our senses and symbols, which will inspire and which will cause propagandists madness of our enemies. I think, 1,5 years was enough to see who is who and who is real nazi.

    You misunderstand. It's not about what you're fighting for, it's what you're fighting with. There are a hatful of reasons for the west to arm you against Russia, but "They're Naxis! Look at their unit patches!!"  is just a gimme own goal for Russian propaganda to add to the reasons to not arm you.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% behind Ukraine and understand that you're absolutely not trying to be the reincarnation of the Third Reich. But I was never going to vote for Trump, even if I had the right to do so. You'll beat the Russians in the end, for sure, because you're better, and more determined. The timescale and casualty toll though, if you throw away Western support for some frat-boy humour would look even more grim than they do currently.

    I know you can't stop them, but I hope you can see that it's Bad PR and that currently you're winning the war at the rate you are because you have Good PR. And then there's post-war reconstruction to consider. That's an even softer target for propaganda.

    4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    So, on current stage Russian propaganda already hasn't this huge strenght, as it was before a war. 

    There was great work done by UKR around the time of the Azovstahl siege, debunking the "neonazi militia" thing. I think it's a stupid risk to undo that when there are powerful lobbies looking for reasons to get our governments to shut down the aid to your country, military, humanitarian and, in the future, for reconstruction.

  8. 7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    Yes, we did discuss this, and as I udnerstand your position I think you wrong here mate- it's not issue of Russian feelings (who cares what they think) nor Ukrainians' traditions of "mockery" (if indeed it is mockery, and not hidden far-right activism like in case of Azov movement), but public opinion of the West at stake here. Which directly translates how much money, eqiupment, training and crucially political support you get from us. Remind you- Ukraine is basically crowdfunding its war at this stage.

    This is very true. The presence, or even suggestion, of neo-Nazis in the ranks, and accepted there, allowed the Russians to poison Western opinion against intervention back in '14. It matters not whether "Azov"s philosophy was widespread, its existence opened the door to some sort of credibility for aninterventionists finger-pointing.

    Maybe your national psyche needs, or at least finds it helpful in morale terms, to mock the enemy, but there are other ways which don't hand the Russian-apologists out here beyond the hot borders of the conflict easy ammo to shoot you in the foot with.

    15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    2 Storm Shadows on Mariupol western outskirts (though locals said about four explosions)

    Storm Shadow has a tandem warhead. Don't know whether a human listener would be able to distinguish the shaped charge detonation from the bursting charge, though.

  9. 1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

    We were never apex predators in nature, middle of the food chain in reality.  However we had a big enough brain to be aware of where we sat in the food chain which created fear.  We then leveraged that to survive and evolve.  The fuel for a lot of our fear is uncertainty, the unknowns because in nature those unknowns could easily kill us for food.

    We were also social, and invented revenge as a survival tactic: if a predator kills one of your troop, you get the troop together and kill all the predators of that type anywhere near you that hang around/fall into your traps. Then we applied it to other troops of humans...

    1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

    If the space between my mental certainty framework and reality becomes too wide, I am in an unreality space and that is when decisions get really shaky.

    And that is apparently where Putin sits in his Master Strategist chair... 

  10. Those 'Fausts are there for infantry to grab and use. The half track won't do anything with them itself.

    To use them, have an infantry element board the vehicle, and then there is a command (I want to say "Equip" and I can't check it at the mo') available to the infantry element which lets them pick up any small arms carried by the vehicle. You have to take each item separately, so there's a bit of clicking, but it's "instant" in game time if you're paused or in the Command Phase. You can't put anything back, so err on the low side if you want to save any for another team.

  11. 5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Yup.  Ironically, several of us here several times have made cracks about paying Wagner to leave the frontline.  If the rumors are true, that seems to be (in a sense) what's happening.  i.e. it's spotted a better business opportunity elsewhere.

    The "PMC" label truly is a fig leaf though, isn't it? Wagner will go where Putin wants it to, if it has any significant assets to send there. That they are hoping to be relieved by the Army in Bakhmut is probably indicative that they can't expect to stay there if UKR try and push them out. That they're then being pulled out of the UKR warzone entirely is an admission that they're no bloody use there in the first place*. If they were "real mercenaries" they could, indeed, have been paid to defect or withdraw, but they aren't, they're an organ of Putin's control, in Putin's control.

    * Or it's a sign that Putin is trying to line up some sort of "Job done" exit strategy. Hopefully the renewed additional commitment by the G7 nations in the last 24 hours has shaken the kleptocrat-in-chief's confidence that this will be successful, if it was his plan...

     

  12. 26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

    Credit where credit is due, The Brits picked a side in February 2022, and have been utterly steadfast since. All the more impressive for having three prime Ministers in that time period.

    Ben Wallace. I hope, with no expectation of satisfaction, that the winners of the next election keep him at Defense, even though he's a Tory, and they won't be. Solid.

  13. 2 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

    Is that a certainty? I don't see anyway anyone would benefit from MAD. How do we know he'll launch nukes then, and not when/after Ukraine joins NATO?

    I think going nuclear is a bluff, as Russia would be on the receiving end of such a situation. I do understand why people may be concerned, however. 

    I think it's sufficiently certain that the benefits of attempting such a thing would have to be firstly cast-iron guaranteed (which the history of "marches on Moscow" doesn't seem to encourage optimism for) and, secondly, worth the risk. I suspect that "those in charge" will consider that a long-term containment of Moscow will be "enough" and that the chances of actually forcing an unconditional surrender on Russia are so slender, and the cost of attempting it so high as to make the non-zero risk of total annihilation unacceptable. 

  14. 1 hour ago, MustyFerret said:

    I have been playing Tiny/Small Maps in real time.

    Is WEGO a must for larger maps and campaigns once I get better at the game? 

    For me, WEGO is the only way to play. RT may as well not exist, as far as I'm concerned. A massive chunk of my enjoyment is in re-watching the turns unfold, finding the engaging little stories that play out. RT simply doesn't give anything like the same opportunity for watching situations develop and resolve.

    I hate to miss anything, and even on a small/Tiny map, you will in RT.

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