Clearly, there is a luck factor programmed into determing combat results, friendly fire and accidents. Most evident to AI players who are doing exceptionally well. Also comes into effect with computer experience bonus (although with CEBs those enemy conscripts, greens and regular troops can frequently outshine the best of my troops). Over time, I have sustained some really improbable casualties mostly lucky kills against highly skilled leaders. Once in a while I have good luck while firing from tanks on the move, or getting a keyhole shot throough teh corner of a building. My tendancy is to notice the bad luck more than the good. There are a number of ways that intuitive actions influence luck. Best example is in aircraft attacks on armor. By closing with the enemy on the ground, it's not uncommon to have less experienced pilots bomb their own, while more experienced pilots will hold fire while executing their limited number of strafe/bomb runs.
The "it must suck to be him" rule is a constant in combat, and an all-too-often experience in CM play. Oh yeah, the luck often comes into play during closing seconds of a turn. "Tsh happens" in CM as often as not as on the battlefield.