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BigDog944

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  1. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to Dmytro Gadomskyi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    1 year of the war is passed. From the start of the invasion and to the huge count of air and missile strikes. One of my friends has been killed by wagner artillery in Bohorodichne village near Bakhumt. My father-in-law has been killed by storming the defensive enemy positions in the Kherson region 1st of October. I gave 3 of my salaries (all what I have)on the first day of the war on the military budget. Thanks to all of you, thanks for your help. Taking carry of our refugees, helping our soldiers to destroy enemy forces with AT weapons, artillery, APS, AFV, and Tanks, peoples who served in foreign legions. Thank you for giving billions of money to support our economy. Special thanks to battlefront for small support for me, when I asked about a discount, they gave me 2 games with all DLCs for free - I didn't expect this. Some of my relatives were in Kherson in occupation, and all high-value electronic and expensive things were looted from them by Russian forces. And now we don't fear rocket strikes (10 times they exploded 700-1000m from my house) we don't fear nuclear threat, we don't fear the second army in the world and you shouldnt. Sorry for we English would that what I want to say for all of you, I can tell you many things about the war but first i will try to improve my language knowlages.
  2. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I do not use the Ignore function often but in this case may I recommend it.  “Real men do not fear the bomb” is just dumb.  It was during the Cold War and dumber now.  If some people want to wrap themselves in dumb and feel all safe and warm, well there are entire social media platforms dedicated to that.
  3. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The two of you have two narratives -
    The Russians are savages who will stop at nothing to destroy Ukraine.
    And
    The West is sitting around and do nothing while the first one happens, and will continue to do so no matter what.
    So if these are true…why hasn’t Russia simply used nuclear/chemical/whatever since day 1?  Why is this war even still happening?  Is Ukrainian resolve and resistance an effective deterrence to strategic nuclear strikes?  
    If the West is so useless and, clearly ready to let Russia do whatever it wants (and you can come read justifications of this right here on this thread)…why do we even still have this thread?  Russias are genocidal savages who are being deterred from escalation…by what exactly?  Because we certainly know it is not the bumbling western powers.
    Of course if this is the case then why are we spending billions to assist Ukraine?  Symbolism? Boredom?
    Look, if you guys want to go bask in narratives that call for bloodbaths and holy crusades/WW3 there is a big ol Internet out there that will tell you exactly what you want to hear.  
    If you want something that resembles a grown up conversation, stick around. But if you are advocating that we all jump on whatever crazy train that seems to float your boat right now: nope.
    What is it gonna take for the West to directly intervene in this war?  You do not want to know.  And frankly this thread won’t matter if that happens because a lot of us will already be dead.
  4. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Worst plot twist ever, and I stayed up for this😮‍💨
  5. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Interesring fact. UKR troops in first time since 2019 have retaken territory, which was under DPR control since 2014. This is between UKR-held Krasnohorivka and DPR-held Staromykhailivka
    Reportedly UKR soldiers hitn that penetration is slightly more, than marked on DeepState map
    Brutal violation of Minsk agreements! )))
     

  6. Like
    BigDog944 got a reaction from Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from Yet in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from Petrus58 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from Bannon in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from chris talpas in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from Billy Ringo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from Fenris in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
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    BigDog944 got a reaction from sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?
  19. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    yeah there are a lot of folks involved and yeah a lot of support from congress.  However the Biden admin is who made the call to release info to unmask Russia's preparations to invade so like it or not you have to give the man some credit.
    And I would rather trip than have this embarrassing moment...

  20. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's not politically incorrect, it's pure unadulterated anti-Semitism. 
  21. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    ....Sadly, spent 25mm uranium (DU) round fragments littering the fertile black earth is an environmental crime in itself, but there's gonna be a massive and costly Cambodia level cleanup anyway.  Plus, well, Donbas....
  22. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to Splinty in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As an American I love our Canadian cousins. After all they gave the world Rush. Which to me is the greatest band to ever exist.
  23. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Video from Kherson front
    UKR troops are prepared to attack. The tank is trying execute "hull down" command %) 
     
  24. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Even late Tom Clancy's ghostwriters were more moderate in their scenarios.
  25. Like
    BigDog944 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So this post got me thinking and raises a really good set of points.  Right now we have been handing out a lot of fish on this thread.  We pull in the data, filter it, assess and then pull out analysis, which leads to some level of prediction.  What we (I) have not done is provide enough fishing rods.  Of course you guys are swimming around the internet and being exposed to all sorts of narratives, some good and some bad.  It may be helpful to arm you with some ways to do your own analysis so that while you are out there you can come at it better.
    Everyone has got their own system, western military teachings all tend to cover the same ground (e.g. PMESII, OPP, whatever that thing Bil does, which must work because he keeps beating me).  Eastern approaches are different and take into account different criteria, I am not an expert on these so I will let someone else weigh in on them.  I will give you my personal system and the one I teach, see if it helps and if it does not keep looking around.
    My system is pretty simply to be honest and focuses on two main areas: what is seen, what is not seen, but should be.  That first one is much easier, the second requires a lot more depth but we can walk to that.
    What is Seen
    I think I posted this before and @sburke lost his mind a bit.  Let me try a less-powerpointy version (seriously guys it is the message, not the medium).

    Ok so this is a representation of what is essentially the western operational system.  It starts on the left with what is basically "Command" and works its way to a desired Outcome.  Everyone is focused on the "Boom"...of course you are...it is exploding!  The reality, however, is that the Target is really only in the middle of this whole thing.  It is an indicator - one of many - but it is not the only indicator.  I think everyone here gets that but they often do not know what else to look for (although some clearly do).
    So the big red system on the left is often referred to as the "kill chain" (thanks for nothing Brose).  It is really the center of what we call a "targeting enterprise" and frankly we in the west are very good at this.  This is "cause" space that translates human will, through capability, into energy (and here it can get quite complex), through mediums (also crazy complex) and onto a target and foresaid "boom" (yay!).   Be it an ammo dump, shopping mall, tank or goose (I hate geese) the process is pretty much the same, and volumes have been written as to how to do this faster/better than an opponent.
    The point of the big red circle is that when we see a "boom" it is important to analyze the entire Cause chain all the way back to determine 1) if that was the actual intended target or was it simply happenstance, 2) how well the chain is doing in competitive terms and 3) what is this all signaling about Will?  All of this also has to take into account context and the situation on the ground.
    Cool. We now have a bead on Cause.  Effect is much harder and more important.  The big blue area is where the pay dirt really sits.  A lot of big booms are impressive, but trust me if they do not translate into that big blue space you are going nowhere loudly - and I speak from experience here.  
    So the first question is "what effect is this actually happening?"  Here an effect is a "consequence of action", so for example the effect of all those HIMARS booms - who are at the end of their own kill chain - was (allegedly) to have the Russian logistics system tie it self in knots to get away from them.  Great, outstanding...but was it decisive?
    Second is Decision.  I have written about the three types of decisions available in warfare (at least) - positive, negative and null.  Let's leave off the last two and just focus on the first one.  A positive decision is a "death of alternate futures".  There was a future where Russia pounded Kyviv into submission for two months in Mar-Apr 22.  The Ukrainian government tapped out because western support was being cut off from the west and Russia occupied half of Ukraine and the capital, set up a puppet government and then enjoyed an insurgency-from-hell that would last 20 years.  That future died in March when the Russians were held off and pushed back from Kyviv: it was positively Decisive.  The Russians may actually have a future where they are back at Kyviv but it won't be in Mar-Apr of 22, the reality will be very different.  The HIMARS are having an effect, that much is clear.  What is not clear is how decisive the sum of those effects are as yet.  If the Russians lose the ability for operational offensive for a significant duration (e.g. this "pause" never ends) then we can say it has been decisive, because there are dead futures on the floor.
    Last are Outcomes.  "What is the difference between a Decision and an Outcome Capt?"  My personal definitions is that an Outcome is a death of options, normally strategic options.  The sum of decisions in western doctrine is supposed to lead to "Objectives" which are the "Deal Done" points in western military planning.  Frankly these have let us down in the past, so I go with Options.  If Options die, they kill off entire fields of futures....a future-cide if you will.  Here something like the entire collapse of the northern Russian front was an Outcome to my mind because the Russian strategic options space collapsed.  Same thing happened after the first week of this war as the strategic options spaces that led to a quick war also died - it is why we got all excited about it back then.  The most significant Outcome is the end of the war of course, but that Outcome is the sum of a bunch of other ones, that all loop back to Will.
    So whenever something blows up, look both left and right on that spectrum, and ask a lot of questions.  How is the Cause chain doing comparatively? What is happening with Will? What is the problem with Russian Capability translating into Energy and Targets?  Really keep a close eye on the Blue circle, the indicators of the important stuff are there:  what is the actual effect?  Is this decisive?  what was the Outcome?
    Ok, so that was the easy part.
    What is not Seen, but should be.
    While books have been written on the first part above, the second is the land of experience.  Here a deep understanding of history comes in very useful as it provides a lot of context.  This space (which I do not have a snazzy picture for) is essentially "what should be happening but is not..."  It is very tricky and takes a lot of experience to "see the blank spaces", it is where the effects should be happening but are not based on whatever time and space we are in within a given scenario.
    For example, let's take the Russian cruise missiles (and this is not a beat up of @panzermartin, he is asking some good questions).  We know the Russians have a lot of missiles (https://missilethreat.csis.org/country_tax/russia/) and they had launched roughly 1000 of them in about a month at the beginning of the war.
    And another report that they were at 2125 total "68 days into the war" (https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-ill-fated-invasion-ukraine-lessons-modern-warfare#:~:text=Russia launched more than 1%2C100,68 days of the war.).  Now if we take "What we see" as the only indication, well this is a clearly functioning Cause chain.  Will, Capability all landing on targets.  A little shaky on the dud rate and "missing" military targets by many reports, and the Medium of UA AD has been pretty effective (then we get into competitive system effects which is a whole other thing - there are red and blue circles in collision); however, that is a lot of "boom".  The Effects we saw were a lot of damage, some of it military and the UA definitely had to react to defend itself by moving AD and C2 around.  I am not sure they have been Decisive, but we will get to that.
    So that is what we saw, and on the surface 2125 incoming missiles all over the Ukraine is not small and frankly looks scary...but I only see what is missing:
    A Ukrainian strategic center of gravity is the inflow of support from the western world.  We are pushing a lot of money and boom-boom over the border from Poland.  High on Russia's list of high value targets has to be to cut off that incoming support anyway possible.  They have done strikes in Lviv on training bases, so they clearly have the capability to hit.  But what are we not seeing?  I am not seeing rail infrastructure being crippled in Western Ukraine.  I am not seeing road infrastructure being destroyed faster than Ukraine can repair.  I am not seeing 30 Ukrainian ammo depots in western Ukraine being hit to cut off the supply of 155mm shells - it is what I am not seeing that is the biggest indicator something is going very wrong on the Russian side.  The Russians have the capability - range is no excuse as they could park missiles in Belarus, so why are they not using all them there 2125 missiles on what really matters?  First answer is that they are "dumb" but that is too easy.  Split Will, missiles spread across disjointed commands all lobbing on their own priorities much more likely.  Lack of ISR to consistently hit things when they need to be hit like UA ammo dumps and logistics nodes, which tend to move around...also very likely.
    This is the same thing very early on in the war - why was I still seeing Ukrainian social media feeds 72 hours into this war?  All them tanks getting lit up, old ladies with balls of steel etc.  Rule #1 of country invasion: make it go dark.  Russian failed in this, it was missing and should not have been.
    Wargamers have an advantage here as they play these problem sets all the time.  We have seen it a lot on this thread.  A wargamer can ask..."why did they not do this?  I would have."  
    And this has nothing to do with an echo chamber either, but we do need to be careful.  For example, we have not seen UA operational offence yet, and nothing that looks like all traditional arms manoeuvre.  This one has me particularly puzzled and we are getting more data in on why this may be happening.
    I will sum up by saying that in order to really filter the "reality" from opinion and BS, take all this and apply it to what we can actually see and not see.  We can build assumptions but they have to remain on speaking terms with the facts.  Once an assumption becomes a fact [edit for @Combatintman. “without sufficient validation”]  we are in trouble.  Enough facts put through the lenses of the two frameworks I give here become a trend, and it is those trends that told us that Russia was losing the first part of the war while most of the mainstream were figuring out how to deal with a Russian victory.
    Good luck and surf safe.
     
     
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