DesertFox

Not sure if this been posted as yet. 
summary and analysis of current situation especially in the south. 

When a tractor just won’t cut it:
 

National anthem in damaged military unit
 

Let´s hope it is genuine:
 
 

This seems quite compelling to me: https://samf.substack.com/p/space-and-time?s=w&utm_medium=email

As sad as it is, but looks to me Putin is preparing his people to accept the use of tac. Nukes against Ukraine. Remember the average russian has no independant information channels available and is target to state desinformation since he is born.
That doesn´t look good. 

58th motorized infantry brigade captured at least two T-72B of 239th Guard tank regiment of 90th tank division, Cheliabinsk oblast  ("239" digit in the rhomb), Tanks have more rare "O" marking. Prpbably Sumy oblast.


Russian T-72B on the road between Hostomel and Bucha. Todays photo

"Guard farmer tractor brigade" continues own work  The writing on MTLB already made by Ukrainians "Do not burn!"
 
 

The enemy column in Kyiv oblast.
...Before

...And after the strike

Did I understand this correctly? Are these soldiers belorussian citizens fighting for Ukraine and against Russia, Chechen orcs and possibly the Belorussian Army if it already has crossed the ukrainian border?
 

Russian D-30 battery, destroyed near Mykolaiv
This city is defending very tough - young city mayor and on wartime the chief of city military administratin Yury Kim (he has Korean origins) can effectively prepare the city to defense in short time, he properly organized territorial defense units. All this wasn't made by Kherson city and oblast administration, which actually shirked this works, which led to quick loss of Kherson oblast.
Yesterday they repelled big offensive and captured many enemy vehcies.
Just now Mykolaiv repelled another attack, supported with tanks and UKR forces captured next Tigr armored car. Yury Kim on the video is joiking now he has personal Tigr
This is second Su-30SM, shot down yesterday. It fell near Chapaivka village 33 km north from Ochakiv naval base, Mykolaiv oblast. Pilots captured.
 
Reportedly, Russians now trying to turn NW from Mykolaiv and to advance toward Voznesensk airfield and Pivdennoukraisk, where nuclear plant is situated.

Are you telling me he used the same trick on his minister of "defense" and a head of intelligence - and also on the whole security council, consisting of dozens of people, which was forced to sit about 30 m away from him, almost outside of the room?
So not even his closest, most loyal men aren't allowed anywhere near him, but a bunch of random chicks would?
Also there's no such thing as "too much work" for russian fake makers. They are doing it for 100 years now, since the first mass media appeared in russia.

This visual guide to the first ten days of the war is illustrated through videos recorded by ordinary people, and verified by @Cen4infoRes – an independent, volunteer-led organisation set up to combat disinformation
Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map by Cen4infoRes · MapHub

From said article:
The Russian army has the combat power to capture the objectives envisioned in a fait accompli scenario, but it does not have the logistic forces to do it in a single push without a logistical pause to reset its sustainment infrastructure
Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks

Paypal as well.
 
 

This visual guide to the first ten days of the war is illustrated through videos recorded by ordinary people, and verified by @Cen4infoRes – an independent, volunteer-led organisation set up to combat disinformation
Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map by Cen4infoRes · MapHub

Don't know if this is high quality analysis, but, given the Russian Army's troubles with the mud, I was struck by the thought that if Putin did hold off the invasion to avoid the Chinese Winter Olympics, that decision could go down in history along with delaying Kursk to wait for the Panthers...

So option four "Go for Nagasaki": Russians get more and more desperate and employ chemical first and then maybe (and it is a very big maybe) tactical nuclear weapons.  The shock of their use somehow crumbles Ukrainian resolve, quick surrender and back to Option 1 - Puppet Government in new province of mighty mother Russia, while West cowers in fear at their own inadequacy.
Hm, ok.  Well more than a few problems with this.  Not the least of which the military operation so far has the hallmarks of amateur political interference.  We all remember this in WW2 when ol AH used to get right down there on the map and start micro-managing.  So in this little shin-dig we all pretty much know who is pulling the strings on the Russian side [aside: there is some military genius going on the Ukrainian side, I hope they are taking notes] and I am pretty sure this fustercluck is all due to either military professionals lacking the courage to speak truth-to-power or are being ignored.   Putin has demonstrated that he knows his stuff in the Grey, dirty espionage and subversive type operations, makes sense given he is an ex KGB type, but he literally knows nothing about military operations at this level, or any level.
So what?  Well dollars to doughnuts he is actually thinking WMDs are an option, hell he thought 3 days of supply was an option apparently.  First let's stick with chemical weapons, tac nukes last. 
Chemicals: The question is, "will the Russian military finally step up and push back?".  Why won't they?  Books will be written on that.  Why Should They?
- #1 War crimes - Russia signed onto the CWC so there use is violation of that convention and will probably wind up with everyone involved in there use at The Hague (note: we are not even sure if Russia has chemical weapons anymore as they declared them free of stockpiles in 2017, but we will see how that goes)
- #2 Tricky Ops.  Given the clown car ride this operation has been so far I would be nervous about hitting my own troops with chemical and slowing down an already glacial operation as one tries to advance through now contaminated terrain.  
- #3 Trickier Logistics.  If the Russian are having logistical issues now, just wait until they have to throw decontamination into the mix of everything (vehicles, equipment, people).  Given they cannot provide fuel at this point, even if Russian troops do have protective gear, they will be living in it for a month at a time, which is just a recipe for disaster.
-#4 Ukrainian response.  Oh my.  Well a chemical release may shock the Ukrainians, but it also may create massive further resistance.  Any hope of breaking resolve could sail away as a backlash.  And forget installing a puppet government, it will not last a week.  So Russian forces will be in Ukraine forever supporting a propped up government, and taking hits the whole time.
- #5 Western Response.  Sanctions until the end of time.  In order to survive Russia will have to become a satellite of the Chinese if they will even have them after chemical attacks.
- #6 Russian response.  Russian public are already soft on this use of chemical weapons could cause revolts in the population and munities in the military
All bad built on a weak theory; however, this whole crazy plan was pretty much that from the start.
Tac Nukes - This might just pull the West in and the Russian power structure and military know it.  Western direct involvement is a sliding scale but none of it is good.  Tactical nukes might just be enough for the West to figure that Russia has become too unstable and it is time for a reckoning.  Putin knows the US has been working BMD hard in the backfield and if we are going with harsh calculus of nuclear war, he may very well be at a significant disadvantage: yes, he might actually lose a nuclear war.
So will he or won't he is still in the wind but my bet is that he will be removed from power if it comes to that, or at least I would hope so. 

I want to believe this 🤣:
 
 

I want to believe this 🤣:
 
 

Bellingcat located the place of morning video of Mi-24 shot down with MANPAD

If the Ukrainians faked that with CGI, they should apply with Michael Bay after the war.