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DesertFox

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  1. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  2. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  3. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If you go into an enemy trench you kill everything which isn't making it very clear that it wants to surrender. This is no video game. And if you are on a command operation you don't even take prisoners if that would jeopardize the operation. Trenches look very clean. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an HQ structure somewhere back of first line.
  4. Like
    DesertFox reacted to Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As a Wargamer, one of the greatest joy we have is using various tools (even if they are amateur and used for entertainment purposes) to check if our crazy ideas are feasible. Here, we have a set of tools called CMO. I have created a few scenarios in the editor. Overall, I agree with your perspective that using an F-16 fighter jet to attack a low-flying Ka-52 helicopter within Russian-controlled territory is not an efficient approach.
     
    In the scenario, I assumed that Ukraine is using the F-16A MLU donated by the Netherlands, while the Russian military has a Ka-52 helicopter hovering at a low altitude 10 kilometers behind their first defensive line. The F-16's radar can generally detect the Ka-52 at a range of 16nm. If the F-16 is at high altitude, there is only one opportunity for an attack because the Ka-52 will quickly enter the radar's blind zone. If the F-16 decides to dive into low altitude or initiates the attack from low altitude, it must consider the threat from short-range air defenses. However, considering the threat posed by the Russian S-300 system, a low-level penetration might be a more viable option.
     
    Subsequently, I added more elements to the scenario, including A-50 and a full suite of short-range and long-range SAM systems for the Russian. The Ukrainian F-16 takes off near Vinnytsia, flies at high altitude over Zaporizhzhia, transitions to low altitude, and turns southeast towards Orikhiv. This brings an additional issue: after flying over 200 nm, the low-flying F-16 only has around 20 minutes of fuel remaining before Bingo Fuel, meaning it can only perform one attack before disengaging.
     
    Similar to before, the F-16's radar detects the Ka-52 at 16 nm, but both aircraft are in low altitude, significantly reducing the effective range of the AIM-120B missile due to air resistance (and yes, max range =/= effective range). The F-16 must close in to approximately 7 nm for the Ka-52 to be within the missile's Dynamic Launch Zone (DLZ). However, before reaching this distance, the F-16 pilot receives multiple SAM radar warning alerts.
     
    In summary, after conducting a single AMRAAM attack, the F-16 must turn and disengage. The success rate is not high, with a small probability of the F-16 being shot down by SAMs, and the chance of the AIM-120B hitting the Ka-52 at the extreme edge of its effective range is also low. According to the PoH calculation formula in CMO, this probability is only 29%.
     
    Please note that this simulation only considers the Russian ground-based SAM systems, and if a group of Su-35s are added to provide CAP, the F-16's chances of a successful attack would be extremely low.
     
    The conclusion drawn from this simulation is that the Ukrainian F-16 should focus on its main tasks, such as gaining air superiority and conducting SEAD, plus attacking Russian airfields and ground support. The mission of hunting down the airborne Ka-52 within Russian-controlled territory should be assigned to other weapons and equipment.
  5. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Some new toys I guess
     
     
  6. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  7. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Very close quarters
     
     
  8. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If you go into an enemy trench you kill everything which isn't making it very clear that it wants to surrender. This is no video game. And if you are on a command operation you don't even take prisoners if that would jeopardize the operation. Trenches look very clean. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an HQ structure somewhere back of first line.
  9. Like
    DesertFox reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    For what is is worth, as a cinema fan I do think that Stone is a gifted director and writer. Nothing to do with my politics but I enjoyed watching Platoon, Alexander and Scarface. I do however think that Stone's pro-Putin stance is dumb. Guess that is what people mean when they speak about,separating art from the artist.
  10. Like
    DesertFox reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    RUMINT. During today's HIMARS strike on Volnovakha allegedly was badly wounded commander of 4th guard tank division.
  11. Like
    DesertFox reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not sure about Tarantino, but with hits like Mega Shark Versus Giant Octopus and Sharknado under their belt. I could actually see The Asylum making that flick. 😁
  12. Like
    DesertFox reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The video. Other man without blure near Zaluzhnyi is lt.general Serhiy Shaptala, Chief of General Staff - "the brain" of operations. Completely not media person, but his role in this war undeservedly relegated to background.  
    In 2015 Shaptala was a commander of 128th mountain-infantry brigade, which was a backbone of Debaltsevo bulge defense. When Putin has broken Minsk-2 agreements since several hours  and UKR grouping turned out in very gard situation and UKR politiacal and high military command were in full confusion (they again believed in agreements with Russians, not having Plan B), Shaptala personally with own staff in several hours developed breacktrhrough operation and took all responsibility on himself. He could withdrew all troops with relatively minimal losses in personnel.   
  13. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from mosuri in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If you go into an enemy trench you kill everything which isn't making it very clear that it wants to surrender. This is no video game. And if you are on a command operation you don't even take prisoners if that would jeopardize the operation. Trenches look very clean. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an HQ structure somewhere back of first line.
  14. Upvote
    DesertFox got a reaction from Heirloom_Tomato in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    How to demilitarize a T-55 - Orc style
     
     
  15. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Some new toys I guess
     
     
  16. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Splinty in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If you go into an enemy trench you kill everything which isn't making it very clear that it wants to surrender. This is no video game. And if you are on a command operation you don't even take prisoners if that would jeopardize the operation. Trenches look very clean. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an HQ structure somewhere back of first line.
  17. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Very close quarters
     
     
  18. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  19. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That was really lucky, I guess. The crew can celebrate a 2nd birthday party.
     
  20. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Nice
     
     
  21. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from _Morpheus_ in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Very close quarters
     
     
  22. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That was really lucky, I guess. The crew can celebrate a 2nd birthday party.
     
  23. Upvote
    DesertFox got a reaction from pintere in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Very close quarters
     
     
  24. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Looks like you nearly can walk on foot from Nikopol to ZNPP now:
     
     
  25. Like
    DesertFox got a reaction from Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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