panzermartin
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Posts posted by panzermartin
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16 hours ago, Beleg85 said:
Heard about this tactics before, but don't recall the clips from it:
This war provides never-ending stream of challanges as how to siumlate it for potentiall future Combat Mission games.
Who knew, motorcycles (and sidecars) would finally make it in CM BS2 as an assault element
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Deleted, no need to feed more off topic matters
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I "hope" this thread stays titled how hot Ukraine's gonna get, in the near future.
There are clear axises colliding in an expanding battlefront and nothing will surprise us anymore. Especially since we witnessed something us unimaginable as Russia storming a European capital. Everything is connected in a way or another. There is Russian presence in Syria, and there are Iranian drones in Kiev.
But yes, for now makes sense to keep this thread clear off other conflicts. Like we wouldn't discuss WW2 North Africa and European theatre in the same thread.
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Scores of ballistic missiles penetrated US/Israel's defense, some hit negev F35 airbase
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10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
that is going to run out first is Ukrainian frontline infantry strength
Ukraine had the finest most battle hardened and motivated infantrymen West could hope to employ imo. It is still unknown the losses they suffered in the large counter offensive.
Unfortunately many were lost too in lengthy sieges like Bahmut, Mariupol and Avdeevka and keep suffering losses under Glide bombs and artillery.
These troops would rather die than succumb to Russia's plans, and hated them with a passion.
That's the no1 adversary Russia had to defeat. After that, what kind of infantry will fight against them in eastern Europe ? Polish conscripts or French legionnaires?
The dramatic surge in FPV drone use might be an indication how Ukraine plans to counter a possible a frontline manpower issue. They are in cases more effective/deadly than a whole platoon of infantry but can they really replace infantry?
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Behind paywall, but the sum is that we slowly see official evidence surfacing of the role China is playing to keep Russia in the fight.
The hypothesis that somehow they will be backtracking afraid of business disruption with the West was false.
China is an almost unlimited X factor imo, both in resources, production capacity and levels of involvement.
This makes the Ukraine war a lot more complicated.
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8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
It probably would be if Greece was invaded by a power hostile to NATO. And you would probably be OK with it if they were part of the reason your country wasn't completely overrun.
Context is everything.
Life is full of cause and effect. Russia caused a war, the effect is right wing extremists are tolerated out of desperation.
Since 2014 right wing extremists have been fighting for and against Russia. Many of them foreigners to both countries, but aligned ideologically.
It is strange to see right wing Westerners fighting right wing Easterners when the fact is both groups are ideologically identical in most respects.
Steve
Agreed
Yeah it's puzzling they fight each other, since they are both white and believe in white supremacy and are probably fans of Nazi Germany too but these are groups that never went too deep with their reasoning I guess.
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22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Where have you been for the past 3369 pages? This isn't news. It wasn't news back in 2014 when Russian trolls were amplifying Right Sector and Azov extremists.
So yes, it is a lie. A huge one. All countries, including Greece, have some significant problems with right wing extremists because Humanity seems genetically predetermined to keep producing them.
I ask you... if Turkey pointed to the Golden Dawn and invaded Greece right now to denazify it, would you consider that be "a total lie"? Because I sure as F would.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Dawn_(Greece)
Steve
It has happened before with Cyprus in 1974 where Turkey blamed the right wingers for harassing turkish Cypriots and invaded Donbas style. Of course it was just the pretext...But somehow international community had to accept it. Now it's history...
Of course many countries have problems with neo nazists. We almost reached a point where GD had a significant 7-8 %presence in the parliament and in the streets. Not proud of it. That was during the deep social and economic crisis where usually extreme elements come out and manipulate the anger/desperation of the people.
The difference here is that Greek Golden dawn isn't trained and armed by western funds and weapons and embedded in the armed forces. They don't have a paramilitary division in some aegean island. They are all currently in jail serving a 10+ sentence for criminal organization charges. I can't guess what will happen in a war crisis but that's the way it is now.
That being said , I understand where your comment is coming from. I didn't mean to imply this alone could justify invading a country. My denazification remark bordered a little on sarcasm.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-the-ukraine-war/
So the denazification is not a total lie after all but it is known that war attracts the most primitive/far right elements from both sides. Probably serves each side's government well if the extremists elements eliminate each other.
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Imagine eventually Russia moving the factories further east to the Urals like in WW2. And yet a drone or two will still be able to find them...
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With no intention to play advocate of sfhand, we have been many times wrong here about the "truth".
I remember the board being very trigger happy with Iraq 2003 for instance. To their defense they admitted later that G Bush administration was at wrong.
But we can't undo what happened now. Iraq for me was a pivotal war for the West. This is where the game of post cold war US playing the freedom/democracy bringer reached a dead end. Because of the lies, the bypassing of UN, the Bush cynical rhetoric, the scores of civilian casualties, the failed occupation /reform etc. ISIS was born out of this war, the refugee crisis ignited. Despite the quick win over Saddam, US reputation was seriously damaged there.
Imo Putin invasion wouldn't happen without US being so damaged in international reputation as a Democracy guarantee power. 2014 and green men wouldn't happen too. I dare to say even Trump wouldn't happen. US just lost focus and steam, started questioning itself, started polarizing etc.
The truth then was that Iraq was a threat to the World with WMDs and Saddam was an evil dictator (which he was). The war ended Saddam but opened a whole new can of worms and a crack in the western camp that widened with a lengthy and fruitless Afghan campaign.
Our truth now is that Russia is a military threat to the world, a threat to global democracy and our duty is to smash them to pieces before worse things occur. Maybe that's the right truth but I'm not convinced of the outcome of the path we have taken. I believe what we have in the West as spiritual descendants of Athenian democracy, European rennaisance, French revolution, American revolution etx, is precious and must be protected. If this escalating war ends up destroying all this, then this isn't the right war for us.
And beneath this war on the surface, there are deeper issues threatening our societies. For me rampant capitalism, privitization of health and natural resources, outsourcing everything to the East, cultural decay and the widening gap between rich and poor will be more decisive in people not believing or not joining the fight in a possible World War. Talking to everyday people not necessarily well informed about the war, there is a big percentage that secretly wishes Russia will win, not because they like a dictatorship but because they feel that this will deal a blow to a decaying neo colonial system that slowly suffocates their existence. They could be deadly wrong of course. But If you can't convince your own people that this is a system worth defending for, then it's already a lost cause.
Sometimes celebrating the small Ukrainian victories, the destruction of a spy plane, or sinking a warship seems so insignificant in the greater picture of events that could come. Russia has convinced its people that "evil West is stretching its dirty colonial hand to grab their vast resources" like they did a few times in the past. The more we get involved the more Russians are convinced this is another great patriotic war. For some this is a dead end against a stubborn nuclear power. For others, like most here in the forum, a frontal attack is the only way for West as we know it to survive.
This could be the only truth worth debating maybe.
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
I can't recall either Kh-101 hit something in the darkness or not. But realy mosty of strikes on Kyiv with these missiles were on the dawn
Interesting.That's sort of a primitive yet smart system that is practically EW proof I guess.
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8 hours ago, cesmonkey said:
How to take out the Kerch bridge?
Covertly hijack a nearby Russian ship?
Wait, you mean that bridge wasn't russian made?
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16 minutes ago, JonS said:
Asymmetric economic warfare? Cheap missiles shot down by expensive interceptors = win. Any actual damage on the ground is a bonus?
If Ukrainians spend 2-4 expensive missiles per hit, probably yes. I have no idea what is the ratio. I wouldn't call these missiles cheap though. Except the Shaheds probably.
10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:I don't think Kh-101, Iskander, Kinzhal and now Zirkon are cheap. Add here wasting of resources of Tu-95, fuel for them, etc. Attack on Kyiv about week ago, when 30 missiles were shot down cost Russia 390 millions USD with around zero effect. Yes, we spent 4 PAC-3 interceprors and about three dozens of NASAMs/IRIS, but I doubt it equal to Russian attacking means cost and completely can't be comparable with economical and military losses if all these missiles hit own targets.
Could truth lie in the middle? Maybe Russians get more hits than Ukrainian mods says.
Or the Russians are reporting to their superiors that the strikes are mostly successful and they dully repeat every day and no one dares to object.
Though they do seem to respect and invest effort in countering AD, with decoys, misleading paths, flares fitted to missiles etc...
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11 minutes ago, Butschi said:
Whether this is their intention or not, they do it like in WW2: One thing that the bombing campaigns were effective at was keeping the Luftwaffe busy defending the cities instead of contesting the frontlines. Ukraine has to commit Patriots et al. defending the cities instead of shooting down Russian aviation near the front.
Yes that could make sense.
Especially paired with the fact that before the re-surge of Kiev bombings a lot of Su 34s were lost, apparently to Patriots moved closer to the Frontline.
Now the pressure is back on the capital.
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The video of Shaman's song seems like recorded one afternoon with a smartphone.
The melody, could be one generic already orchestrated DAW file sitting in his hard disk.
Lyrics are nothing special.
Yes this can come out in day if you are driven and focused (or Kremlin funded!)
But Alternatively he could go for a more bootleg live and unplugged version for authenticity (and conspiracytheoristproof)
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Some things I wonder about.
If the russian raids are that bad and 95% of missiles are intercepted why Russia keeps targeting Kiev and wasting valuable ordnance that could be used on the battlefield for instance.
They estimate that they will expend and reach the breaking point of Ukrainian AD at some calculated point?
Why they have allowed after years so many working AD batteries. Patriots are static on defense, they are large systems that can be spotted and tracked. They have numerous spies on the ground. Why one morning not launch a massive strike exclusively on two batteries for instance.
Lastly, Is it unrealistic to employ high flying Tupolevs with glide bombs against AA batteries?
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13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Maybe you will be surprised, but even in Ukraine enough people continue to listen Russian rap, rock, watch their movies etc even these groups or artists openly supoprted the war. "I just like them, music/cimema is over the war and policy". These speeches you can hear even among UKR soldiers
Do you think that there is a percentage of Ukrainians (not LNR, DPR) that avoid conscription because they don't want to participate in war with Russia out of some kind of connection or sympathy with them. (not necessarily political) Though I understand any sympathy after two years of torture and death is non existent.
I can't grasp how tragic this war of extinction is, between these once closely related countries.
Sometimes I wonder, can we all turn out like these, towards our neighbours, we now chat and laugh with, given the circumstances.
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33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
No, it makes ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE that this was connected to Ukraine. This is how dumb conspiracy theories get started. Please stop contributing to it.
As with other totally lazy and counter factual theories, yours misses the fact that the world is rather complicated. Why would ISIS be doing something in Russia and not Gaza? Some possibilities:
- ISIS has nothing to do with this and is just trying to take credit to make itself seem relevant again.
- A local group came up with the idea and someone within that group has ties to ISIS, so he made a phone call and ISIS said "that sounds great! We've got some money and a planning guy we can send your way, as long as we get to take credit for it".
- ISIS has tried, or is trying, to do something within Israel but it's really difficult to do because a) ISIS has absolutely no history of being organized enough to do squat against Israel and b) Israel's security services, while not perfect, are pretty good.
- ISIS has been planning this attack for more than a year, therefore it was well in motion before Gaza happened. What do you think ISIS would do, CANCEL the attack on Moscow because they need to do something in Gaza? Hardly.
Look, those are 4 logical and plausible explanations as to why this is ISIS. They weren't difficult to come up with, but if you don't even try to look you won't see even the most obvious things staring you in the face.
Steve
Sure makes sense Russia is more prone to these kind of attacks now, all busy with the war effort.
But ISIS has been an obscure organization that at some point of its life even received training and funding and even western weapons from various sides. They nearly defeated Russian backed Assad. So yes, they can be manipulated to serve supreme forces in their powerplay like other terror groups in the past. Used and then discarded. There are also probably more players than NATO/Ukraine that want to see Russia dragged in a second front.
And as you say, we really have no clue what ISIS stands for anymore. It could be a random office in some desert that "buys" terror attacks just to keep the brand/funding going. That doesn't make this attack "more Isis" but more of a 3rd party operation.
The fact that these guys got so easily arrested and made no final stand makes them look less like the usual jihadist radicals. No Allah akbar no fight till death. Did this for 5k? Weird. Unless this arrest is all staged of course, and the real shooters are heading for some Stan now.
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I really don't get ISIS, (if this attack is ISIS). They didn't make a sound with the Gaza bloodshed , but they now "fight for Islam" against russian rockers, in timing that makes no sense whatsoever from their perspective but makes absolute sense in the Ukrainian matter.
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5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Again, not sure why he needs something this dramatic. The Moscovites were all "one side" according to posters here, so why kill a bunch to make them "more onside?" Further, we know that Russia has been pulling from rural areas largely disconnected from Moscow. A bunch of illiterate poor sods who barely understand what is going on. How is an attack in Moscow going to make them suddenly care more about this war?
An attack on Moscow also demonstrates weakness. So if moscovites are weak on this war, a terror attack is likely a poor way to shift mindsets. In fact, Steve's theory of "why ISIL" conducted this attack in the first place has far more traction - they sensed the divisions and weakness and exploited it.
These are the inconsistencies that I can see:
- Russians are a homogeneous mass of sheeple who all hate Ukraine - but Putin is having trouble selling mass mobilization.
- Putin needs chaos to drive divided support for this war into his skinny little arms - so he picks a major terror attack at the heart of Russian power and then has to Rube Goldberg it back to Ukraine...and not make Ukraine look like a mastermind while doing so.
- Putin has already had plenty of opportunity to declare full on casus belli; how do you think we would respond to a Russian drone strike on Poland? How about 50 drone strikes? But he needs to somehow make up a dramatic terror attack to go "all in"...after he already has said that he is "going all in."? All those refinery strikes and A-50s were not enough. The freaking Russian Legion was not enough...but Russians are all sheeple how basically respond however Putin wants....seriously?
- A terror attack is the worst way to go about this if Russian society is divided. It is too grey. It leaves too many doubts on the table. If this was truly a chaos operation one needs to be able to pull undeniable truth from it. A terror attack like this is one of the worst ways to go about that. An unambiguous conventional escalation by the west makes for a far better mechanism to create war support and unity...it would be why we have been avoiding these sorts of actions.
Vague handwaving and head-patting (poor westerners, you simply do not understand Russian mindset) is disingenuous as I have yet to hear one theory that actually holds water from those doing the head -patting. We basically get "well because...Russia". Or some dehumanizing nonsense.
If this is a false flag, or the Russians make a lot of hay out of it - we are seeing a shift in behavior. A shift that is happening for a reason. And I am not sure that reason is to somehow erase resistance to mobilization through a muddy asymmetric attack - that, is western-centric thinking because it is what we did last time it happened to us.
I'm not saying Putin did this. I don't believe it. A massive drone attack in live TV on some football field crowd would look more impressive than this "grey" random attack.
Could be some rogue anti-russian team , could be pro UKR chechens , who knows. I don't think this is ISIS. I think by now the islamic state has been reduced to a teenager in a cave with a PC that sends announcments trying to claim the paternity of random attacks. Well not that much maybe, but I don't see why they would go that far after years of silence and even take sides and get involved in a West vs Russia war, because that's how it looks now.
Whoever was, the intention was to put more fire under the cauldron. The timing was right. Maybe FSB had some hints but didnt bother much as you say...
The consequences of the attack will be evident in the coming weeks/months. Already Putin is blaming Ukraine on national broadcast...
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5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Maybe, but Russia has already had a lot of opportunities to play that card. Instead we get "industrial accidents," "airplane malfunctions" and Priggy "miscommunications." Putin has been downplaying and sidestepping stuff exploding all over Russia for two years. Why suddenly wake up after winning a fake election and go "you know what, lets try for a Russian 9/11, now"?
I dont think that the refinery attacks are on par with this shocking attack that has definetely terrified muscovites, even on the zombier side. Moscow people were the less involved and interested in this war (and the most opposed to this war). This could accelerate a lot of changes in the security/military apparatus and mobilization.
Now it was the worst time, because they recently changed status from spezial militarski operationski to great patriotic war. And because all signs are that war is getting broader with Macron announcing intention to send troops etc which is a new major shift in the Western involvment.
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16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
This is clearly a security failure so pinning it on a war opponent makes that opponent look competent and effective. This is counter narratives of “we are winning in Ukraine” which they have been continually pushing
How about the other way. "Look we have bravely fought them and flattened them in the battlefield and now they are only capable of cowardly sneaky terror attacks massacring undefended youth. These are the acts of the desperate and the defeated "
(Buuut if we mobilize some more of you, the country will be a safe invincible fort ) .
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All alive and well? I wonder where that ISIS announcement came from. This doesn't look like suicidal ISIS at all.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
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First Tu-22 kill? Pilots reportedly bailed out.