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Vanir Ausf B

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  1. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to photon in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Amateur historian chiming in, so take it for what it's worth: yes with a but.
    I'd suggest that there are two kinds of war, the second of which is relatively uncommon. I'd distinguish them based on what the victor gets at the end of the war.
    The first kind of war is a war-for-things. The aggressor wants to take some things (which can be abstract things) from the defender. The victor gets to keep the things. For example, when the United States fought Mexico in the 1840s, that was a war for things. The victor kept Texas and California. Or the Roman conquest of Gaul: Caesar plundered everything that was not nailed down, and functionally annexed modern France to Roman rule. These are pretty common, and World War II was, from one side, a war for things: Germany wanted Lebensraum, Japan wanted the rich resources of the indo-pacific region (particularly oil). Note that I'm defining wars-for-things in terms of the spoils, not the rhetoric that surrounds the spoils. I'd note that modern war is so mind bogglingly destructive that rational actors have concluded that protracted war-for-things is a suckers game. There are no things you can get that are worth the destruction on the things you want!
    The second kind, which is relatively rare, is a war-for-rules. The aggressor wants to impose (or maintain) a particular rule set on a collection of polities. The ancient examples of this would be Roman expansion in Italy (which ended with the defeated state bound into a treaty structure rather than obliterated) and the inter-Polis wars in Greece (which were by and large prestige competitions). The victor incorporates the defeated party into a particular rule-set. The objective is not to take things away from the defeated party.
    We've also seen asymmetric combinations of the two. For example, Gulf War I. Iraq was fighting a war-for-things against Kuwait, but the Coalition was fighting a war-for-rules against Iraq (we did not annex Iraq at the end of the war, we said, "no annexing neighbors, bad Iraq").
    So the war in Ukraine is a combination of these two. Russia is fighting a war-for-things against Ukraine. They are attempting to take the whole of Ukraine's territory, and stealing grain and people. Simultaneously, Russia is fighting a war-for-rules against the Status-quo Coalition. The rule change they're attempting to effect is a return to the "annexing-neighbors-is-ok" rule set that preceded WW2. Ukraine is fighting an existential war-for-things against Russia, and wins if they exist as an independent state at the end of the fighting. The Status-quo Coalition is fighting an existential war against Russia as well: the absolute lynchpin of the status quo is that annexing neighbors is not OK. If that rule falters, it will blow up the international order and allow a renegotiation of lots of the status quo by actors not enamored of the status quo (the Baltics, Taiwan, Africa, the Middle East, &c.). Victory of the Status-quo Coalition is deterrent: showing everyone that attempting to violate the international rule set is *just not worth it*.
  2. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Astrophel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @OBJ
    I am convinced that Putin has no intention of stopping.  At the most he would take a ceasefire to regroup and rebuild, but right now he probably thinks he is winning and will not look for a ceasefire.  Any attempt by Ukraine to look for a ceasefire will be rejected - Putin is looking for a surrender, not a ceasefire.  Why would Putin stop now when everybody is dancing to his music including the United Nations and the United States Congress?
    Putin himself reminds me of Macbeth:
    "I am in blood / Stepped in so far that should I wade no more, / Returning were as tedious as go o'er"
    He has no way back.
  3. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to OBJ in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, I can't claim to be an expert in military history, world or any one nation's, or anyone's generals, but I do have the sense wars 'won' through exhaustion, tend to start up again as soon as one side or the other decides it is no longer exhausted. In the era of mobilized nation states, a ceasefire negotiated peace tends to leave the issues that caused the war in the first place unresolved. On the other hand, wars in which one side is utterly devastated, occupied and dictated a new form of government, those wars tend to be 'over,' the issues causing them being permanently removed.
    So, if current fighting in Ukraine stops with a cease fire, possibly a negotiated 'peace,' show of hands, who here thinks that's the end of it, IF, what's left of Ukraine isn't brought into NATO and protected by article 5 before Russia reconstitutes? 
    Do diametrically opposed political ideologies typically peacefully coexist for centuries, especially if they share a border? Is it worth differentiating between great power wars, minor power wars, minor power participation in great power wars and wars followed by a century or more in which the entire world geopolitical and technological situation changed?
    Did the Allies really win WWI if they had to fight Germany/Axis in a much more destructive war 20 years later?
    If NATO service chiefs are saying they need to be ready to fight Russia in 3-6 years, did the west really win the Cold War? Can a Cold War really be in the same conversation with a shooting war? Is deterrence the same as war? Is economic collapse without war the same as in a war?
    I don't know but would guess the experts on any major power's national military history and past Generals are people having spent their professional lives (30+ years) making a career of it, in or out of uniform.
    Again, I am no expert. I am interested in other's thoughts on above in relation to Ukraine.
  4. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to NamEndedAllen in The year to come - 2024 (Part 2)   
    Clearly, Drop Team Remastered. 
    But no remake until 2031.
     
  5. Like
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The things is, Grant had no intention of fighting a battle at Shiloh. The Union generals thought the Confederate army was 20 miles away and were taken completely by surprise.
  6. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Have to quibble: Grant did fight at the start of the war and he did not fight at all like Lee. He also had a very clear sense of the strategic goals of his moves right from the beginning. I agree that Lee made the calculation you did above but he was very muddy on how to get there. 
  7. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This woman is an angel, who help to defend Avdiivka. She is a citizen of this town. She supplies FPV drones, anti-drone EW and many other stuff for guys who defend this town. Her crowdfunding campaignns already brought hundreds of drones to defenders. But with lack of shells and under endless enemy attacks the need in FPVs, thermal sights, EW, drone detectors are huge. 
    If anybody wants to help Avdiivka defense - you can donate to her. Her goal for next batch of drones, EW and sights is 100 000 $
    PayPal:  yana.statna21@gmail.com 
     
  8. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Typical dirt road in winter Ukraine... Yesterday we had +10, today +1 and snow with rain. Only tracked vehicles will survive! 
     
  9. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Usually I ignore most of articles in WP/ NT about Ukraine, because many of them had been written by authors, who worked in Russia or had any relations with Russia and this is not journalistic, but sort of influence on public opinion and to sow scepticism. 
    But this is article, despite had been written by "anonimous sources among UKR battalion and company commanders" (if I see "anononimous source", this is 50/50 BS) in whole reflects probably more significant problem, than artillery sjells shortage - the crictical lack of pesonnel in "line units" - those who hold positions and should go forward. Problems with mobilisation and failed information policy of the state in this sector led to army receive too few replenishment. And many of infantry, who come from Ukrainian tarining centers have very weak training. (My addition - existing 151st training center, established by volunteers and saved in endless wars with old soviet dumbs top brass from GS anD MoD gives very food training, but can't reterain more that 2-3 batatlions for one cycle)
    In conditions, when units have 30-40 % of personnel, which have no normal rest, we can't think about any offensives, And if this not be solved in short perspective, this with addition of probable US aid termination can lead to very bad consequences
       https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/
  10. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is very sad, but looks like Avdiivka battle comes to the end and, alas, not in our favor (not counting about two divisional vehicle sets, which Russians lost here). 
    During last three days Russians captured quarry area on the NE of the town and gained foothold in dachas and first streets of northern part of Avdiivka. Yesterday they broke through overpass bridge in front of coke plant. Also reportedly for last two days Russians dropped on Avdiivka about week amout of gliding bombs. 
    110th mech.brigade, defending the town itself is completely exhausted, drone operators almost don't sleep by days - FPV attacks and Mavicks maintaining resistance in conditions of artillery shells shortage. But bad weather in last days limited their flights and this immediately gave opportunity to the enemy, having overhelming advantage in manpower. Russians continuously replenish own troops with fresh meat, they go forward, die and next meat come behind of them, death conveyor is working, but Russians achive own goals in this way. 
    Our artillery near Avdiivka keep almost full silence already four days - no shells. So 110th brigade command moved to positions as riflemen almost all rear services soldiers, because no more opportunity except FPVs and contact clashes to hold this horde. 
    But not only ammunition shortage led to this situation. 
    - OTUV "Tavria" command (gen.Tarnavskyi) again repeated all mistakes of Bakhmut defense. Expecting that Russians will assault stronpoints (like factories in Bakhmut and coke plant in Avdiivka) directly, when they use enough flexible tactic and after first fails attacked on flanks, made many bogus small assaults to confuse about real attack directions
    - passivity of OTUV "Tavria" comamnd, as far as before October, when Russians recently captured Krasnohorivka and began to fill this northern "balcony" above Avdiivka with troops. 
    - no reserve fortifications on flanks of Avdiivka. Only when Russians crossed railways, we started to establish some positions, but in conditions of unstable weather when frosts change themeselves with rains and mud it was belated idea
    - manpower lack and fatigue. 110th brigade two years fights in this place and never was rotated for rest in full composition. Other units, who were moved here from Zaporizhzhia front also weren't rested and replenished after summer clashes, when Russians continously were replenishing own units. 
    - weak air defense capabilities. For whole Avdiivka battle Russians lost only one aircraft. 
    The map of northern part of Avdiivka for 5-6th of Feb. Avdiivka is on 90 % is private 1-2 storey cottages, only on the south east from coke plant there is small "Khimic" ("Chemestrian") micro-district with multistorey urban type buildings for coke plant employees. These are so-called "Old Avdiivka" and "New Avdiivka"
     
  11. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    From Financial Times
  12. Like
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Vergeltungswaffe in D-25T vs 8.8 cm KwK 43   
    BTW, to echo @Anthony P.s excellent points above, the guy in the video has a website (linked in the video description) containing a wealth of Soviet primary source material. But he is absolutely not an impartial investigator. He presents information that supports his narrative, ignores everything that doesn't, and is hostile to anyone who questions the data.
  13. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And if it gets shot down on the way, it will double as a coffin.
    A big part of why drones are so successful is that they are so small that they are almost impossible to spot and hit at range. This one, not so much.
  14. Like
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Fizou in D-25T vs 8.8 cm KwK 43   
    BTW, to echo @Anthony P.s excellent points above, the guy in the video has a website (linked in the video description) containing a wealth of Soviet primary source material. But he is absolutely not an impartial investigator. He presents information that supports his narrative, ignores everything that doesn't, and is hostile to anyone who questions the data.
  15. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Anthony P. in D-25T vs 8.8 cm KwK 43   
    That's the issue I wasn't going to raise by myself, but since it's been broached...
    Samsonov's written some interesting bits based on translations of original documents but he sorely lacks a historian's background, and it shows in some ridiculous methodology. I'm not going to trawl through years' worth of his blog posts to provide an extensive list of examples, but some which come to mind:
    "Disproving" the notion that the T-34 was a cramped tank by comparing a T-34 and a Panzer IV's manuals, and measuring the headroom available to the crewmen illustrated in said manuals. Since the illustrated T-34 crewman had a millimeter or so more space between the top of his head and the roof in the manual's pictures, he'd "proven" that the T-34 actually had a roomier crew compartment than the Panzer IV.
    "Proving" that Soviet helmets provided superior ballistic protection to German helmets based on a 1942 report testing half a dozen completely random, captured German helmets from the battle of Moscow against new Soviet helmets. Ironically he'd also translated the part of the report which noted that the methodology was so flawed that no conclusions could be drawn from it.
    Basically, anything he reads in original Soviet documents, he takes at face value with supreme confidence. It seems he doesn't realise the point of studies beyond those he is already capable of, i.e. translations.
  16. Like
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Commanderski in D-25T vs 8.8 cm KwK 43   
    This is reportedly a Tiger I mantlet hit by an IS-2 in Romania. Granted, we don't know the range, but the close grouping suggests it was not super far.


     
     
     
  17. Like
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Fizou in D-25T vs 8.8 cm KwK 43   
    This is reportedly a Tiger I mantlet hit by an IS-2 in Romania. Granted, we don't know the range, but the close grouping suggests it was not super far.


     
     
     
  18. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to pintere in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can’t speak to the reliability of this report from Telegram, but it does potentially provide some details on what’s happening on the ground at Avdiivka:
    AVDIVKA UPDATE
     
    Russian forces in the south west salient they created have effectively been cut off as Ukraine has regained the key fortified area of the restaurant services area.
    Russia tried to send a column to reinforce their troops in Avdivka’s lower streets, but this was annihilated.
    The Russians used a 2km waste water service pipe to get behind the restaurant and into south Avdivka. It’s very narrow and they had to crawl through it, so supplying and reinforcing the now cut off island they’re in in south Avdivka is near impossible, if not pointless.
    The tunnel needs to be destroyed at both ends and it’s deep so this hasn’t yet happened.
    Eradicating the Russians in the housing they occupied is well underway.
    Overall the Russian operation was quite imaginative and it gave them a major gain -  taking the southern defences completely and the Ukrainians by surprise. In some ways the Ukrainians should have expected use of the tunnel, or at least taken precautions to block it. It’s far more likely they just never expected it could be used if they even remembered it was there.
    Russian success  - and it was, there’s no getting away from that, it was a daring and imaginative operation, was simply not followed up. Senior commanders doubted its likely success and no one was ready to exploit it until it was far too late. By then the Ukrainians had snatched back the restaurant’s fortification, because nobody reinforced the Russian forces, and now the few remaining Russian troops are more or less trapped, and the whole thing has turned into a Russian disaster. It’s not something Ukraine will fall for again and they’re probably looking to make sure nothing like happens anywhere else either.
    This could have been the most consequential move the Russians made in months.
    If they had been ready to exploit the success and acted quickly, given it the support it needed, they could have surrounded Zenit and have broken deep into Avdivka. It would in all likelihood have been the beginning of a much faster end for the town which would have quickly become untenable.
    Instead their own handful of competent people were as usual, let down by hide bound commanders with zero imagination. Ukraine has always worked well against such opponents and did so again. That they were just as quick to see what had happened and responded with lightning pace to retake the initiative says it all.
  19. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They literally only need ~3 Republicans to go all in on supporting this, and threaten to vacate the chair and vote in Jeffries. Not saying that will happen but if any Republicans do it I hereby promise to donate to their campaigns, and buy their books.
  20. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmm. I'm really not sold on this dronetopianism.
    Granted, that is partly cap-badge tribalism. Mind you, in Commonwealth-style armies - and probably most Western-style armies - drones are likely to end up in fires units (that is, artillery units) anyway, so it'd be a change but not a loss of organisational influence. As an example, look at how rockets were absorbed by the artillery fraternity.
    But I don't think tribalism is the only reason influencing my thinking.
    To start with, it seems like a version of the old argument "if snipers are so great, we should just train every rifleman to be a sniper!" Yes, snipers are great, but the personal attributes required to be a sniper a rare, they're really expensive and slow to train, and the final product is also of niche utility. A notional 18th Sniper Brigade would either be tactically and operationally useless, or a very very expensive hammer being used to crack grapes. Drone operators seem to suffer from the same limitations, and without good drone operators all you'd have is a ToyWorld's-worth of spare parts sitting behind battalion HQ.
    Drones are really good at hitting and destroying the specific point they're aimed at, but appear to be pretty terrible at damaging or even annoying anything else. That's kind-of ok as long as you have really super great - and really super reliable - tac ISR. 'Dumb' artillery is good at damaging the thing it's aimed at, and great at suppressing that as well as everything else in the general vicinity. PGM artillery shifts that seesaw towards damage and away from suppression, but retains both effects. Also, the drills required for a single artillery forward observer to remove an entire grid square from your "worried about" list are fast (ie, minutes), simple and well trained. Trying to do the same thing with drones would be extremely slow (ie, hours), require hundreds of operators, and consume the entire cognitive abilities of at least a bde HQ. Hopefully nothing "interesting" happens while they're busy with that.
    Logistically, artillery ammunition is famously "heavy", but it is also very compact and simple. The rounds come packed in geometrically simple tubes, they stack really well, and are insensitive to heat, cold, dry, damp, and being bounced around and generally careless treatment. Drones appear to be light and simple and easy - hell, I can carry two in boxes under my arm, and get a dozen in my car! Well, sure, but how does that scale? When every rifle company is firing off 100 munition-drones per day, and every battalion is burning through a thousand ... where are you putting all the dunnage? Who is assembling them? How many trucks are running about in constant loops to bring them forward from Div HQ? Drones are also kinda fragile. That's partly why they are so comparatively cheap, but what is an acceptable dud-rate for drones?
    Drones are definitely a problem for conventional artillery, as a supplement to traditional CB. They're also "competition" for conventional artillery, as a supplement to traditional fire support. And that's the key word: supplement. Not replace.
    Incidentally, part of the reason 'mil-spec' kit tends to be so expensive is that wars are rare and peace is normal. Most kit spends most - like, 99.something% - of it's time sitting around waiting for a war. But it isn't really just sitting there, it's being used on a regular basis to support training and exercises, and that kit needs to stand up to that regular use and abuse, and then be ready to transition to war-use at a moments notice. That ruggedness and decades-long reliability costs money. COTS drones offer none of that. I get that the flash-to-bang time for drones in Ukraine right now is probably being measured in weeks at best but, again; wars are rare and peace is normal. For a standing army that is mostly at peace - like, oh, all of NATO for the last three quarters of a century - that $1000 COTS drone is going to have to last a lot longer than a few weeks. It's going to have to support multiple courses and exercises, over many years. Occasionally one will be expended in training but, as with Javelins or VLLAD missiles, that's going to be the exception rather than the rule. The rest of the time it just gets lugged around as make-weight.
  21. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Example that a tank is not always easy target for drone dropped HEDP and thermobaric grenades. ERA and weakness of charge makes own work, if this is not sniper drop in open hatch or lucky hit in engine area. 
    Here compilation of several drone attempts to finish of abandoned Russian tank. HEDP and two thermobaric grenades in the puddle of fuel can't set the tank on fire. Only last dropped thermobaric grenade penetrated inside the turred and caused fire. Several grenades were defeated by ERA - it's good seen how blocks dissapeared afer activation. But in one case ERA didn't activate 
     
  22. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    All complaints about pathing in the game will be refrred to this video forevermore.
  23. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2024
     
    Open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are benefitting from Ukraine’s ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counterbattery warfare. Ukraine-based open-source organization Frontelligence Insight stated on February 1 that Russian forces previously established stationary artillery firing positions for long periods of time from late 2022 to early 2023 when ammunition shortages limited Ukrainian counterbattery warfare capabilities.[20] Frontelligence stated that Russian forces began to concentrate their artillery in a similar way in January 2024, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are again running low on artillery ammunition. Frontelligence stated that Ukrainian forces can sometimes strike Russian artillery but overall lack adequate ammunition for effective counterbattery fire. Frontelligence stated that the lack of Ukrainian counterbattery fire allows Russian artillery to largely destroy settlements, making it nearly impossible for Ukrainian forces to defend the settlements. Frontelligence stated that many of Ukraine’s FPV drones lack the range to strike the numerous Russian artillery pieces deployed 15 to 24 kilometers from the frontline.
  24. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rybar's report on the Crimean events:
    https://t.me/rybar/56611
     
     
  25. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It seems that at least some Russians have come to similar conclusions about war as this forum:
    https://www.armystandard.ru/news/2024129114-TnO1s.html
    No comment really, except that we should not stereotype the Russian general staff as a bunch of drunks and incompetents stuck in the soviet past. They are learning, even if implementation is the hard part, not theory. 
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