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Vanir Ausf B

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  1. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to evilcommie in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The Russians replaced their 5v28 missile used in the s-200 missile system with the 9m82 missile from the s-300 family.
    The s-200 system was really designed to shoot down large bomber aircraft at very long range.
    The 5v28 missile is unwieldy. It weighs almost 8 metric tons , more than the max takeoff weight of a Mig 17 fighter jet and uses some toxic fuel with nitric acid based oxidiser  and also strap on solid fuelled boosters.  I can’t imagine them being easy to maintain and deploy. They probably also take ages to deploy.
    There is no western equivalent system. 

     
     
  2. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just CasEvac alone requires carrying a wounded soldier under FPV and artillery threat through 1.9kms of marshland, crossing 3 water obstacles that each require a boat and loading and unloading of the wounded. The boat, will either have to be carried too, or stashed somewhere, where it is likely to be hit by drones. 
    Or you decide to follow the waterways, which requires only 1  boat but is significantly longer through the twisting river.
    All of that has a very finite throughput, putting more than a couple Marines at risk would be a great way to end up with piles of uncollected bodies. There's already enough videos of stretchers getting hit in that bog.
    The value of Krynki is that it is a very defensable position that funnels russian vehicles either through the few completely straight forest roads where they can bog down or get hit by drones or through the veery long river road, which is exposed and easily observable, leading to quick discovery and annihilation of russian forces.
  3. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This may have been posted before but a thread search didn't find it. Important points here though by Watling.
    https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
    The Russian military began 2023 with a highly disorganised force in Ukraine comprising approximately 360,000 troops.... By the beginning of 2024, the Russian Operational Group of Forces in the occupied territories comprised 470,000 troops....
    Russian forces have reverted above battalion level to the traditional Soviet order of battle of regiments, divisions and combined arms armies, but have been significantly altered below the level of the regiment.
    Battalions are organised as line and storm battalions, and tend to operate in company groups which fight in small, dispersed detachments [due to a] shortage of trained officers able to coordinate larger formations, with a significant proportion of Russian junior officers currently being promoted from the ranks....
    Units can generally be rotated out of the line once they have taken up to 30% casualties – the point at which they are judged to be ineffective – and are then regenerated.... In this way, the Russians are maintaining a consistent pressure on a number of points....
    If Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025.  

  4. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hope the crew got out. 
     
     
  5. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  6. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have no doubt it is to create space for the F-16s. The Russian A-50s are data linked to S-400s that launch 40N6 missiles with a 400 km range, meaning they could hit aircraft flying west of the Dnieper all the way from Russia.
  7. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not only S-400. Russians have super-long-range AA missiles R-37, carring by MiG-31BM with 200 km of range and R-37M with 300 km of range for Su-35 and Su-57. There were several episodes, that these missiles have been shooting down UKR planes and helicopters far from frontline. 
  8. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Brille in Tank v. tank spotting.. (what a ***** mess)   
    @SDGRegardless of your claims and if this oddity is right or not: You have been asked multiple times now for a save file for further inspection. You clearly have the file as you made multiple screenshots after another request.
    You are certainly not obliged in any way to post one but it would certainly help to prove or disprove this behavior and probably to get to the reason why that is.
    This would actually be nice when tanks could shoot somekind of blind directed fire into a certain location. For example when a tank is clearly visible but just so happens to vanish in a dust/smoke cloud they could fire 1-2 rounds in the last known location. It clearly was done in reality. Problem is just how to program this so that this may not occur to much or in the wrong situations...
     
    However if there is any chance of it it probably will be in CMx3 rather than with an update to the actual games.
  9. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Lethaface in Tank v. tank spotting.. (what a ***** mess)   
    It is and always has been. There are things you can do to stack the odds in your favor, and it sounds like you did that to a degree. But in Combat Mission, and I would argue in real life, doing everything the right way doesn't guarantee success. Of course, the corollary to that is sometimes you can screw up and still win.
  10. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I looked over the less interesting questions from the UKR former tanker interview and to see what could still be noteworthy. So, below is part 2.
     
  11. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Myles Keogh in Tank v. tank spotting.. (what a ***** mess)   
    It is and always has been. There are things you can do to stack the odds in your favor, and it sounds like you did that to a degree. But in Combat Mission, and I would argue in real life, doing everything the right way doesn't guarantee success. Of course, the corollary to that is sometimes you can screw up and still win.
  12. Like
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Vergeltungswaffe in Tank v. tank spotting.. (what a ***** mess)   
    It is and always has been. There are things you can do to stack the odds in your favor, and it sounds like you did that to a degree. But in Combat Mission, and I would argue in real life, doing everything the right way doesn't guarantee success. Of course, the corollary to that is sometimes you can screw up and still win.
  13. Like
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Anonymous_Jonze in Tank v. tank spotting.. (what a ***** mess)   
    It is and always has been. There are things you can do to stack the odds in your favor, and it sounds like you did that to a degree. But in Combat Mission, and I would argue in real life, doing everything the right way doesn't guarantee success. Of course, the corollary to that is sometimes you can screw up and still win.
  14. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Recently, I noticed that my UKR listening skills have improved noticeably. With the aid of translators and some effort, I can watch and translate UKR videos. So, let check the following interview with UKR AFV expert (former AFU tank officer)
     
     
  15. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's not just some amateur narrative, it's official Ukrainian policy.
    Zelenskiy has always said the goal was to get the whole country back.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/20/zelensky-keeps-maximalist-war-goals-despite-gop-opposition-aid/
  16. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  17. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to holoween in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They are awefully modeled in SF2.
    The muzzle velocity is far too slow and they are less accurate than at4s somehow even though they have proper optics for aiming and rangefinding rather than just iron sights.
  18. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I never could hit anything w these in CMSF2.  My guys would fire at ~400m and it would miss by 100m, up, left right, down.  I hope they are better in real life.  
    But they look damn cool. 
  19. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't think this is new information though?
    There were two lines, each with two pipes (A & B). Nordstream 1 had both pipes destroyed, Nordstream 2 only had one pipe destroyed.
    But, interestingly, there were four explosions. Nordstream 2 Pipe A was blown up two times at two different times, in two different locations. Leaving Pipe B intact. All this is on the Wiki.
    To me , this suggests that whoever was behind the bombings intended all four pipes to be destroyed, but that they made a mistake and hit the same pipe twice. Probably because they were in a hurry and there was poor visibility in the water.
  20. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is a very good comparison, in that it shows that there may be different wargoals for different participants. To crudely simplify that very complex topic: UK and France wargoals included lengthy mobilisation and then defeating III Reich via a combination of blockade, strategic bombardment and positional warfare. They assumed that Poland can well be defeated in the meantime, and intended to fulfill the alliance by reinstating Poland after the final Anglo-French victory. Poles were not officially told that, though. Some Polish officers and politicians understood that just from their own analysis of the situation. But most people waited for the French to start their relief offensive after the first week of the war, and the actual expectation was that we will hold the Germans at worst at the Vistula before the French destroy the Wehrmacht from behind .
    Official position of the Ukraine being full return to legitimate borders, my hunch is that their minimum win condition is to reinstate the pre-2022 border in the south while retaining freedom to join Nato and EU. An armistice line in Donetsk and Lugansk changed in Russian's favour could probably be accepted after much wringing of hands. Now it is a moonscape anyway.
    On the other hand, some nations supporting Ukraine can have entirely different perspective on what constitutes a win. No nuclear exchange and Ukraine avoiding total subjugation, possibly.
  21. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I am hoping for that as well, but I am not sure how this could happen.
    Russian glide bombs are tossed from the distance of 50 km to front line on the Russian side. AFAIK Su 34 (and as of late also Su 24 unfortunately) approach high and fast from a direction roughly perpendicular to the frontline and at the furthest possible distance, they make the toss - pull up and release the bomb. Then they immediately reverse direction and head for home. Apart from the height and distance being higher, the technique is roughly similar to Russian helicopters tossing unguided rockets. 
    This means, that in order to counter those attacks Ukrainian aircraft would have to be able to reliably shoot down Su 34 and Su 24 on their approach flight to the bomb release point (say 70 km behind the front on the Russian side?). Assuming the Ukrainian aircraft are F-16 with AIM 120 C they theoretically could do it, the missiles having a 100 km. range. However, F-16 would be fighting from big positional disadvantage. In order to hide from RUS SAMs and air-to-air patrols, the F-16s would probably be approaching very low. Therefore, once they release the missiles they would be firing from low up, at targets first fast approaching and then fast egressing, close to the far end of AMRAAM maximum range, from the frontal aspect of the target and then in a stern chase.  Would this scenario still yield a significant enough probability of kill? I do not know, but there are a lot of factors decreasing it compared to the theoretical optimum.
    While doing this, Russian air to air patrols are a non-trivial risk factor, even now from time to time they account for Ukrainian aircraft with the R 37s. Also, while trying to hit Russians 70 km on the other side of the front, the Ukrainian F16 would have to pop up in Russian SAM envelope. In light of those risks, I do not think Ukrainians would be willing to risk their few precious F-16 if the probability of killing the glide bomb carriers is low. So I am afraid that your scenario might not happen in real life. But maybe I am wrong somewhere in this reasoning, or the Ukrainians surprise me with something. Hopefully they will. 
  22. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Two things seem to have to happen in order to  attain offensive capability in a big war: 
    1. Total and full spectrum EW domination. 
    2. ISR denial. 
    That means space operations, that probably means denial of one’s own drones. It likely also means a whole other suite of sensor jamming per Watling’s envisioned future of sound sensors, etc. In other words, it probably means offense is the privilege of an already pretty dominant military. 
  23. Thanks
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Dr.Fusselpulli in bug or intended behavior?   
    It's a workaround for an engine limitation. Vehicle weapons can't be rearmed within a mission or dismounted.
    But certain vehicles, here the Jeep, can dismount their weapons.
    For this reason, they have a second TOW launcher with it's own ammunition as their team weapon, while the model of the TOW disappears, when no crew is mounted.
    As this is a combat vehicle, only the original crew can mount it.
    As the TOW launcher carried by infantry, and the TOW launcher mounted on the vehicle are independent weapons, they can't share their ammunitions.
    It also works the other way around. If you dismount and shoot all 3 three missiles, they jeep will still have its original 5 missiles loaded.

    But this way, it is possible to simulate the team to dismount with the TOW launcher at least in a similar way, as it would be in real life.
  24. Upvote
    Vanir Ausf B reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Michael Clarke is a popular military expert who is often interviewed on TV.
    If he squinted a bit, he might read the small letters on the image of the press conference, which was held in January 2023. The news he is commenting on is a year old.
  25. Like
    Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Equipment loses, yes, but casualties are probably less lop-sided.
     
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