Reputation from Vanir Ausf B - Page 18 - Battlefront.com Community

Vanir Ausf B reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 11, 2023

I have largely ignored you because it is pretty clear that you are not in fact interested in actually learning anything on this forum. However, in reality this is an honest question that some lurkers may also be asking. Why can’t the US, or NATO or an alliance in between “win this war in 4 weeks and just end this brutal war?” Don’t need an essay really:
- Put the nuclear escalation to the side for arguments sake but we will come back to it.
- A US direct incursion into Ukraine or this war is going to drive a massive amount of support into Putin’s arms, to the point he might actually get full mobilization support. A fully mobilized and galvanized Russia is a scary beast particularly since they will likely be heavily backed by both China and Iran as they will see the entire expansion of the war as a chance to defeat the US by proxy. So now the US has four weeks to push Russia out of Ukraine, could they do it? Probably? Would it end the war…no way. It would likely expand it as Russia gears up for a serious fight because now it has reason to have one. The totality of your position is that you are in fact pointing madly at a “limited war” but your solution is “more limited war”…oh wait maybe you are not talking about a limited war.
- ok, to defeat Russia, truly defeat them, it means not simply driving them out of Ukraine. It means total defeat of Russia as a nation. The destruction of Russian Will to fight. This means going into Russia itself and removing its ability to generate that Will. So we are talking invasion, defeat in detail and occupation…of Russia. The military force the US would need to do that is well outside the US military current envelope, we are talking millions of troops. Let’s pretend Russia can be occupied, it is a big country (look at a map). You now need to hold it until you can install a friendly government…and remember you brought up total war. So the US and most of NATO would now need conscription to sustain a force that large…you feeling strong?
- “But we will stop at the border”, sure and Russia will now simply reload and incite as much violence and discontent in Ukraine…now filled with US troops. What possible negotiated end-state is there where Russia can still function while massing for WW3? No, you cannot give Russia time to reload…that would be really dumb. So now you would need to contain Russia…in the 21st century…with China on one of its borders…and Iran. That is a massive problem. The state sponsored terrorism issues alone will be intense. Again, this is limited measures that won’t “end” anything but risk a lot worse.
- Back to occupation, the risk of a resistance from hell is incredibly high. See the many lengthy posts on that issue. Very angry and well supported by various powers an occupied Russia could make Iraq look like a weekend outing. Oh wait, there is more,
- Russia might fly apart while you are trying to occupy it. Not known for its shining unity, occupation could see Russia itself fly apart and the the US is trying to manage a civil war…and a possible insurgency.
- Ok, now the obvious one…WMDs. Let’s pretend that Russia won’t use them on good old “Merican” boys as they counter attack into Ukraine and encroach on the Russian border. They sure as hell will if the US invades Russian soil, which we have to now. And even if they don’t there is no way in this universe we can guarantee we can secure them all. Now we may have lose WMDs of many flavours lose in this mess.
To put it more simply and in words with as few syllables as I can: To defeat Russia and end this war in 4 weeks the US would need to break Russia. To break Russia is to engage in a major war, possibly global. It would break the UN, it would shatter NATO because I can think of at least a dozen nations that would get off that train quickly. Economically it would break the system as we are talking markets staring down the barrel of nuclear Armageddon. Anything short of that is just more limited war with even slimmer margins than we are already on.
So when you declare that “the US could end this thing in 4 weeks” all you are doing is loudly announcing just how much you do not understand. If you honestly want to learn, maybe stop typing and start reading more.

Vanir Ausf B reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 10, 2023

Alright, I’ll bite (just this once) in case clearing it up once and for all might stop it being posted 3-4 times a day…
What does this even mean? Amongst all the thoughts you post (which are honestly sometimes pretty hard to untangle) this one seems to come up more often than anything else. It’s an analogy, right? ‘staring down Putin’? What is it actually an analogy for?
The article in your own post points out that “The United States thus sought to leverage intelligence in a manner to convince allies of the imminent threat and, to a lesser degree, dissuade Moscow from acting, while signaling that it had deep insights into the Kremlin’s plans.”
So the US basically told Russia they knew about their plans, told all their allies, told Ukraine and mobilised the alliance we see today to implement unprecedented sanctions against Russia and unprecedented financial and military support for Russia’s intended enemy. I’m honestly not sure what other reasonable measures could have been taken at the time.
What else do you mean by “stare Putin down”?
Oh and, fair warning: if your response mentions B-52s or a no-fly zone I will be forced to conclude that you’re either trolling or basing your suggestions on video game experience, at which point I’ll apologise to the rest of the board for bringing it up and duck out.

Vanir Ausf B reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 10, 2023

@akd
New upgrades for old T-80BVs:
Russia is going to renew producing of T-80 tanks "from zero".
https://www.interfax.ru/amp/919914
Recently Russian MoD considered refurbished tanks from storages as "new produced", so numbers of production in "1600 tanks for year" in this sense can considered as correct. But now it's talks exactly about restart of T-80 production. Intersting that this can turn out about next refurbishing of mathballed T-80 fleet, which will be passed off as "new". I doubt Russian production capabilities can replenish so scale losses timely. Resource of appropriate stored T-72 for modernization is exhausted, now Russia is unpacking T-80B/BV fleet. By assessments about of 3000 T-80B/BV tanks in relative good conditins can be raised from storages. Total number of T-80 of all models in USSR was about 5500.
It's be interesting if Russian is goiing to make T-80 tank as main tank for army, considering current fuel crisis. Gas turbine engines of T-80 consume much more fuel than diesel of T-72/T-90.
And here on that photo could be probably first example of "new produced" T-80. This is T-80BVM obr.2022 "Obnovlyonnyi" ("Upgraded") under testing. The tank got cope cage with ERA, designers claimed it protects against top-attack HEAT ammunition like Javelins/NLAWs FPV drones and dropped ammunition. Also tank got EW devices "Volnorez" (these round things on top-front turret), having purpose to supress contol channels of FPV drones.

Vanir Ausf B reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 10, 2023

We can imagine it was one of topics in meeting between Erdogan and Putin I guess... yup, Russia will try to meddle like crazy everywhere it can to shake international order, even risking long-term loose of influence over region. It also shows how picky can be Kremlin support; there was a time when help to Armenians ring authentic bells of sympathy in some parts of Russian society ( namely intellectual traditions in RU view Armenians as "depositaries" of real Orthodoxy or "older brothers in Christ" of sort). If they really choose to ditch them now and swap alignments, it means Putin is desparate.
Violence int the region between informal blocks of Turkey/Azeri/Russia vs. Armenia/Iran with shadowy US support would be one of strangest off-shots of muscovite debacle in Ukraine.

Interesting, tanks from museums were reportedly in better conditions than those from depots:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/08/to-train-ukrainian-troops-the-danish-military-had-to-borrow-leopard-1-tanks-from-three-museums/?sh=7616f9d045e2

Vanir Ausf B reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 10, 2023

Meanwhile new war on Caucasus is coming.
Probably Azerbaijan will try to take whole territory of Nagornyi Karabakh and esatblish land corridor between Karabakh and Nakhichevan authonomy enclave.
Both Azerbaijanian and Armenian armies move troops to the border. Interesting that Azerbaijanian forces use Z and V symbols, but crossed out.

Also intersting that now Russia on background of cooling of relations with Armenia, will be likely unofficially support Azerbaijan. Armenian authorities, disappointed by reaction of Russia and ODKB alliance on Azerbaijanian offensive in Nagornyi Karabakh, now more and more turn to USA, claim intentions to leave ODKB. But more inetersting likely now Armenia has found new ally - Iran!

Iran and Turkey exchanged with sharp statements - Iran warned Turkey Azerbaijan and... Israel agaisnt invasion to Armenia. In own turn Turkey warned Iran that if their forces entere to Azerbaijan, Turkey armed foces will react immediately.

Vanir Ausf B reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 9, 2023

Rare footage of tank vs. tank fight. Reportedly this is June - the beginning of UKR offensive. One Leopard 2 against two Russian tanks. Distance 1500+ m. After Russian tank was hit and damaged, both Russian tanks rolled back.
UKR Leo likely used HE shell. But maybe ERA on Russian tank saved the vehicle from penetration

Vanir Ausf B reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 9, 2023

There is far too little attention paid to the interplay between Chinese actions and US aid to Ukraine. In this particular case, I suspect that the shoe that dropped was North Korean aid to Russia. Kim quite literally exists at the courtesy of China. He can't do his banking or feed his country without the acquiescence of Beijing. In the last week it has become clear that Xi has agreed to let him send arms to Russia. The US was holding back ATACMS in order to have a card to play to stop that sort of thing from happening. Now that China has decided to allow it, the US is letting them go.

Vanir Ausf B reacted to WimO in CMBN - LOS Ranges vs Weather Conditions September 9, 2023

I wanted to have a better understanding of the effect of weather conditions on CMBN's clear (blue line) line of sight ranges. I created a map that was perfectly flat, had only short grass and no features. Then set up a U.S. rifle platoon on one edge and drew target lines down range under various conditions for both day and night. Attached is a pdf showing the results for your use. Measurements are not perfect but good enough.
This is very helpful for me when creating scenarios. I find the night-time range for overcast conditions to be hugely excessive when compared to veteran's accounts.
CMBN LOS Weather.pdf

Vanir Ausf B reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 8, 2023

Word budut is future; they will be ours. Mistranslation.

Vanir Ausf B reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 8, 2023

I think those Twitter posts are bit over the top.
https://newsweek.ro/actualitate/sea-breeze-233-fortelor-navale-romane-si-cele-ale-sua-fac-exercitii-in-marea-neagra-si-delta

Vanir Ausf B got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get? September 8, 2023

There was a Ukrainian military source quoted in an interview late last year (which I now cannot find) that said the Oryx numbers for tanks under count Russian loses by 50% and Ukrainian loses by 60%.
What is more difficult to wrap my head around is the aircraft loss numbers. Ukraine claims 315 fixed wing kills and 316 helicopters. Oryx counts 89 and 105, respectively.