Vanir Ausf B

Comments regarding armored vehicles from battalion commander "Spartanets" with the 37th Marine Brigade.
On the AMX-10:
"There was artillery shelling and a shell exploded near the vehicle, the fragments pierced the armour and the ammunition set detonated."
The crew of four inside were all killed, he said.
"The guns are good, the observation devices are very good. But unfortunately there is thin armour and it is impractical to use them in the front line (attack)," Spartanets said.
"There were such cases when a 152-mm shell exploded nearby and the shrapnel penetrated the vehicle," he said
He added that the French AMX-10 also had issues with gear boxes breaking down, possibly due to their use on dirt roads.
On the MRAP and British Husky:
One had some minor shrapnel damage to the hood, which he described as a "weak" point.
"Otherwise, in terms of protection, the vehicle is very cool," he said.
If one runs over a landmine, "a wheel flies off" but the vehicle remains intact, he said.
By contrast, when a Soviet infantry fighting vehicle (BMP or BMD) drives over a tank mine, "it is very sad for the crew and the vehicle", he added.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/thin-armoured-french-tanks-impractical-110407784.html

If this was feasible it would have been done already. In fact, something similar to this was Plan A in the days following the March '22 invasion but Saudi Arabia and the UAE noped out.

Ukrainian and Russian forces both advancing. Slowly.
__________
Deputy Defence Minister Ganna Maliar said that Russian troops were advancing near Avdiivka, Mariinka, Lyman and Svatove.
"Fierce fighting is going on everywhere," Maliar wrote on social media, adding: "The situation is quite complicated".
Maliar also said Ukrainian troops were advancing with "partial success" on the southern flank of Bakhmut in the east and near Berdyansk and Melitopol in the south.
In the south, she said Ukrainian forces faced "intense enemy resistance, remote mining, deploying of reserves" and were only advancing "gradually".
"They are persistently and unceasingly creating conditions for as fast an advance as possible," she said.
____________
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-says-russian-troops-advancing-180434450.html

Comments regarding armored vehicles from battalion commander "Spartanets" with the 37th Marine Brigade.
On the AMX-10:
"There was artillery shelling and a shell exploded near the vehicle, the fragments pierced the armour and the ammunition set detonated."
The crew of four inside were all killed, he said.
"The guns are good, the observation devices are very good. But unfortunately there is thin armour and it is impractical to use them in the front line (attack)," Spartanets said.
"There were such cases when a 152-mm shell exploded nearby and the shrapnel penetrated the vehicle," he said
He added that the French AMX-10 also had issues with gear boxes breaking down, possibly due to their use on dirt roads.
On the MRAP and British Husky:
One had some minor shrapnel damage to the hood, which he described as a "weak" point.
"Otherwise, in terms of protection, the vehicle is very cool," he said.
If one runs over a landmine, "a wheel flies off" but the vehicle remains intact, he said.
By contrast, when a Soviet infantry fighting vehicle (BMP or BMD) drives over a tank mine, "it is very sad for the crew and the vehicle", he added.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/thin-armoured-french-tanks-impractical-110407784.html

Ukrainian and Russian forces both advancing. Slowly.
__________
Deputy Defence Minister Ganna Maliar said that Russian troops were advancing near Avdiivka, Mariinka, Lyman and Svatove.
"Fierce fighting is going on everywhere," Maliar wrote on social media, adding: "The situation is quite complicated".
Maliar also said Ukrainian troops were advancing with "partial success" on the southern flank of Bakhmut in the east and near Berdyansk and Melitopol in the south.
In the south, she said Ukrainian forces faced "intense enemy resistance, remote mining, deploying of reserves" and were only advancing "gradually".
"They are persistently and unceasingly creating conditions for as fast an advance as possible," she said.
____________
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-says-russian-troops-advancing-180434450.html

Comments regarding armored vehicles from battalion commander "Spartanets" with the 37th Marine Brigade.
On the AMX-10:
"There was artillery shelling and a shell exploded near the vehicle, the fragments pierced the armour and the ammunition set detonated."
The crew of four inside were all killed, he said.
"The guns are good, the observation devices are very good. But unfortunately there is thin armour and it is impractical to use them in the front line (attack)," Spartanets said.
"There were such cases when a 152-mm shell exploded nearby and the shrapnel penetrated the vehicle," he said
He added that the French AMX-10 also had issues with gear boxes breaking down, possibly due to their use on dirt roads.
On the MRAP and British Husky:
One had some minor shrapnel damage to the hood, which he described as a "weak" point.
"Otherwise, in terms of protection, the vehicle is very cool," he said.
If one runs over a landmine, "a wheel flies off" but the vehicle remains intact, he said.
By contrast, when a Soviet infantry fighting vehicle (BMP or BMD) drives over a tank mine, "it is very sad for the crew and the vehicle", he added.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/thin-armoured-french-tanks-impractical-110407784.html

Comments regarding armored vehicles from battalion commander "Spartanets" with the 37th Marine Brigade.
On the AMX-10:
"There was artillery shelling and a shell exploded near the vehicle, the fragments pierced the armour and the ammunition set detonated."
The crew of four inside were all killed, he said.
"The guns are good, the observation devices are very good. But unfortunately there is thin armour and it is impractical to use them in the front line (attack)," Spartanets said.
"There were such cases when a 152-mm shell exploded nearby and the shrapnel penetrated the vehicle," he said
He added that the French AMX-10 also had issues with gear boxes breaking down, possibly due to their use on dirt roads.
On the MRAP and British Husky:
One had some minor shrapnel damage to the hood, which he described as a "weak" point.
"Otherwise, in terms of protection, the vehicle is very cool," he said.
If one runs over a landmine, "a wheel flies off" but the vehicle remains intact, he said.
By contrast, when a Soviet infantry fighting vehicle (BMP or BMD) drives over a tank mine, "it is very sad for the crew and the vehicle", he added.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/thin-armoured-french-tanks-impractical-110407784.html

Comments regarding armored vehicles from battalion commander "Spartanets" with the 37th Marine Brigade.
On the AMX-10:
"There was artillery shelling and a shell exploded near the vehicle, the fragments pierced the armour and the ammunition set detonated."
The crew of four inside were all killed, he said.
"The guns are good, the observation devices are very good. But unfortunately there is thin armour and it is impractical to use them in the front line (attack)," Spartanets said.
"There were such cases when a 152-mm shell exploded nearby and the shrapnel penetrated the vehicle," he said
He added that the French AMX-10 also had issues with gear boxes breaking down, possibly due to their use on dirt roads.
On the MRAP and British Husky:
One had some minor shrapnel damage to the hood, which he described as a "weak" point.
"Otherwise, in terms of protection, the vehicle is very cool," he said.
If one runs over a landmine, "a wheel flies off" but the vehicle remains intact, he said.
By contrast, when a Soviet infantry fighting vehicle (BMP or BMD) drives over a tank mine, "it is very sad for the crew and the vehicle", he added.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/thin-armoured-french-tanks-impractical-110407784.html

Likely Russian Spetsnaz or recons, using AM1 ATVs of Russian production (indeed localized AM800 OdesAssaliant). One interesting note - about 2-3 months ago Russian MoD officially permited using of Multicam pattern as legal camo.

I made a little map of airbases Russia is known to be using for operations in Ukraine. This is not comprehensive but should give an idea of what a difference ATACMS could make.
Henichesʹkyy and Berdyansk are already in Storm Shadow range. Yeysk, Taganrog and Millerovo probably are as well, depending on how close to the front lines Ukraine is flying their SU-24s.
So the difference in capability comes into play in southern Crimea, including the Kerch bridge if Ukraine is allowed to target it.

 
 

He was the first one out. You can see him disappearing into the brush at the :26 mark. The other 3 meet up with him at the end.

He was the first one out. You can see him disappearing into the brush at the :26 mark. The other 3 meet up with him at the end.

Interview with gen. Zaluzhny. Lot of bitterness on his side, understandeable in this situation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/
Also, interesting detail that he and Milley cooperate so closely- I think it is first time he admitts that; up to now, Ukrainian High Command rather officially distanced itself from direct US connections.

Some twitter debate on the subject of DPICM:
 

I made a little map of airbases Russia is known to be using for operations in Ukraine. This is not comprehensive but should give an idea of what a difference ATACMS could make.
Henichesʹkyy and Berdyansk are already in Storm Shadow range. Yeysk, Taganrog and Millerovo probably are as well, depending on how close to the front lines Ukraine is flying their SU-24s.
So the difference in capability comes into play in southern Crimea, including the Kerch bridge if Ukraine is allowed to target it.

 
 

I made a little map of airbases Russia is known to be using for operations in Ukraine. This is not comprehensive but should give an idea of what a difference ATACMS could make.
Henichesʹkyy and Berdyansk are already in Storm Shadow range. Yeysk, Taganrog and Millerovo probably are as well, depending on how close to the front lines Ukraine is flying their SU-24s.
So the difference in capability comes into play in southern Crimea, including the Kerch bridge if Ukraine is allowed to target it.

 
 

No single weapon system is going to end this war suddenly.  The more complicated the system the longer the lead time to get it into battle and the greater the risk of mistakes being made on unfamiliar equipment.  People were howling for tanks and as we have seen western tanks are not magic, they are operating under the same limitations as Russian based stuff. HIMARs did change the game as they became a substitute for AirPower especially when plugged in as the last mile of the entire C4ISR architecture.  However, while HIMARs had a significant impact they were not going to win the war on their own.
ATACMs will give extra range; however, the RA will pull support infra into Russia proper.  This is not small as it will force lengthening of support lines etc.  However, this will put us on a slippery slope for conducting missile strikes into Russia proper, which is very likely what the hesitance on ATACMs was in the first place.  Storm Shadow seems to have gone well and been restrained in it employment so I think the ground work has been laid.  
Short of serious escalation or spiral risks, we are kinda stuck with a slow grinding affair until something gives.  I would also prioritize AD, the sustainment of air denial is pretty critical.

I am not sure this was a failure in assessing Russian Great power as much as it was a failure in assessing Ukraine's power to resist and deny Russia strategic victory.  We were not about to throw a bunch of expensive (and proprietary) very expensive hardware into a country whose chances to continue existing were low.  Why these assessments were wrong we as much about mis-reading "Russia Sux" as they were about "War is fundamentally changing".  All of the metrics we used to measure military strength and it ability to create decision were the problem, not necessarily metrics of national power.

Yeesh, I do not even know where to start.  I hate it when "insiders" play the nomenclature game.  "It isn't Hybrid Warfare, its Grey Zone."  "It isn't Grey Zone it is 'Below the Threshold'".  "It isn't Great Power, it is 'Full Spectrum Power'".  Half of this is just trying to new label for the same thing but now you can claim re-branding rights - original thought is not any part of the discussion.
So a Great Power is now defined by "full spectrum" appears to be DIME+P (and no mention of C - culture), with a focus on capital M and everything to make that happen.  If this is the case there is a pretty strong argument that the US is not a Great Power, nor a Full Spectrum Power either because it is lacking in Political unity and will to actually employ all them pointy bits and accept sacrifice on the same level as China.
Further this completely misses the boat as to why Russia failed.  There is a level of facade, no doubt about that; however, as we have discussed numerous times here the entry cost of a war like this is so high that if the US and a coalition were fighting an enemy empowered and enabled like Ukraine we likely would not even start it in the first place.  Can you imagine 100k US soldiers dying in 16 months?  Last time that happened was WW2, not some sideshow intervention.
What is missing from this entire discussion is Opportunity.  Great/Full Spectrum (whatever) Power only counts if one has Opportunity to use it, or better yet create Opportunity to use it.  Further a more fulsome treatment of the subject has to look at the power to Deny opportunity.  We are democratizing both energy/kinetic and information based power at a terrifying rate - now small powers like North Korea can achieve a sort of relative power superiority within niches. 
So is Russia a "Great Power"?...well considering that we are not going all Iraq/Saddam on its a$$, I would say "yes" it is still in the club of nations that can deter the entire western world to a degree.  Further, Russia has (and likely will) go back to employing subversive power as a primary mode of making trouble, as going overt did not work out so well.  Or are we going to convince our selves that "no Russia is not a Great Power, so we can do all sorts of things as policy"?  Are we going to start treating Russia like we would Panama? 

Nah. Outbound fire ignores all vegetation within a small radius of the shooter, on the x and y axes. IIRC it's 8 meters, but don't quote me.

I READ this and I believe it.
But wait... should I?
😉

Russian Su-25 was hit by Igla MANPAD of 10th mountain-assault brigade, but likely just damaged
 

Informative summary thread about the mine threat UAF is facing since advancing.