Pete Wenman

If the Russian narrative can be believed it seems the mines and arty were enough to stall the breach before ATGMS started to hit the UKA armour. As @The_Capt previously stated it does not seem that everybody piled on from the RUS side at that time however, and so the UKA forces were able to withdraw, even if on foot, rather than be destroyed. Not sure either side will be really pleased with the outcome, as I suspect both will think they could have dealt with the situation better P

The Wavell Room is always worth the read. Nothing really new in the article, but it is well laid out.

Tom Coopers thoughts from the ACIG forum “Frontlines... Orikhiv sector... Ukrainian reports are indicating a break-through of the first line of defences in the Lobkove area, sometimes around 7-8 June, with an advance on Zherebyanky as a consequence. This in turn should have collapsed the Russian defence line further south-east, and enabled an advance south-west and south-east of Dolynka, all the way to Peremozhne (about 15km in total, on a frontline some 15km wide). With this, Ukrainians should be something like 'half-way through the 2nd line of defence'. South of Orikhiv, Ukrainians should be somewhere between Stepove, Rivne, and Chystopilia, west of Solodka Balka and about 15km outside Tokmak: i.e. through the 2nd line of defence. Further east, i.e. south of Hulyaipole: the aim there seems to be to outflank the Russian defences of Polohy on both sides, but so far, the advance remained limited in comparison to that in the Orikhiv area. Essentially, Ukrainians are still busy clearing lanes through the minefields and approaching Robotine: even if they have reached the southern edge of deep minefields protecting the first line of the Russian defences in several directions, they are yet to start manoeuvring freely. South, east and south-east of Velyka Novosilka...the western prong of this advance seems to have been checked by the Russians after it reached the hills dominating Staromaiorske. However, yesterday, the eastern - and much belittled - attack drove all the way from Oktyabrska and Novomaiorske to Krasna Polana, in southern direction, while developing in a new, western direction, too: on Staromaiorsk. That in turn forced the surviving Russians to abandon - in panic - their positions in Neskuchne, Storozheve and Blahodatne - and that without a single shot: they fled in south-western direction, into Starmoaiorske. Moreover, if the report on advance to Krasna Polana is truth: that's about 50% of the way to Mariupol. (I.e. here we have a similar situation like in the II Nagorny Karabakh War, when Armenians were reporting they're 'breaking Azeri bones', while the Azeris were already deep into their southern flank... but this wasn't reported by any of social-media-mappers, because there were 'no videos'....) Further east, the Russians were defending well in the area south-west of Vuhledar, but it is possible that the Ukrainian advance further east - via Volodymyrivka to Blahodatne - has meanwhile forced them to withdraw. Here, Ukrainians are meanwhile outside the minefields and manoeuvring freely. What is certain is that there is - or at elast was - a very bitter battle for Blahodatne going on: that's some 5km north of Volnovakha, which is the crucial place in this part of Ukraine (on the highway from Donetsk to Mariupol). On 9 June, the Russians deployed reserves from Donetsk for a counterattack into the eastern flank of this advance (that's what caused the fighting for Blahodatne); however, yesterday, they seem to have changed their decision and withdrew/re-deployed the troops in question further south, into their third line of defence, between Volnovakha and Mariupol. Overall, several penetrations of 15-25km, but the Russians are still holding out wherever they can: i.e. the ZSU is still not 'through' the worst of this. Moreover, the VSRF is 'streaming' really a lots of reinforcements into southern Zaporizhzhya. What is also not mentioned (in general) that - no matter how much criticised (foremost by such like me) - the ZSU troops are outmatching the Russians, in training, manoeuvre, firepower, and precision. Thus, every of their attacks is causing massive Russian losses, even if sometimes costly (at least in vehicles) for the ZSU.”

Tom Coopers thoughts - seems a reasonable summary

@Haiduk my google searches are letting me down, but do you have any details on the strength/depth of RU defences in this area. Does this area have the lines of dragons teeth and anti-tank ditches that we have seen photos off. P

Good articles from Tom Cooper summarising the recent days air actions https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-30-may-2023-the-game https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-31-may-2023-that-with P

Made me smile

Stolen from the ACIG forums May or may not be accurate P

No source quoted but Jon tends to know his stuff

UKA clearing trenches - motivated and capable. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1658862542502895617?s=20 P

Worth a read as it links into the previous points on "traditional mass" and deployment of such and the problems they will likely encounter in the future given what has been seen in Ukraine https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/May-June-2023/Graveyard-of-Command-Posts/ P

This made me smile, but is also perhaps a little cautionary. Comments are worth a read as well

I thought this part was instructive. Seems like a deliberate action to halt and dig in, rather than to continue to try and exploit the Russian withdrawal.

Tom Coopers take on this action full article here https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-10-may-2023-ministry?fbclid=IwAR2_gLZGRwnbKISW1DRYDEeSO_Qd0uVL1MnIg_fEYQ_Tg1Et4PtQAso8g04 P

And to lighten the mood

Insight into the helicopter flights into the Azovstal plant last year - from the Times (paywall) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9cab48a4-c340-11ed-89bb-9ee8b04f3f4c?shareToken=485065bad0587c0638b43e5df3a6992e P

Seems this is for real, although of very little real impact - excuse the fruity language from Eliot H P

Yep, giving consideration to matters two command levels down. So Battalion CO, considering impact at not only Company level, but also platoon level. P

Looks like the trench line was originally a Ukrainian defence line, given its location and the berm on the right (east ?) edge. Its an awful lot of trench for very few defenders, and suggests RU are over stretched trying to hold it. As Chrisl states no AT weapons evident either. This is not a sound defensive position.

@BFCElvis - John something you can help with ? P