[Max Hit Probability]

Thanks to all for the information.

I concede that a 3000 meter shot for WWII was a very long shot, and to tell the truth, I would happily take rexfords chart to the current 10% that is seen in the game.

Now if we could just get BTS to chime in...

OT (kind of)

Of the 152 AFV's and misc vehicles my battalion destroyed in the Gulf, a good 80% of the shots were all over 2700meters and quite a few over 3000. There was one in particular that was witnessed by the battalion commander himself, a Lt. Col Meritt. It was a shot on a BMP while on the move with a HEAT round, the range was 3980meters and was made by 3rd tank, 3rd platoon, Delta company...my tank. At first Col. Meritt thought that we had fired a sabot round while indexed HEAT, but to his surprise, the tracer went waaay up into the air and then began to slowly fall back down only to land square on top of an offending Bemp. Yeah, 3000 meter shots are long, but as the saying goes: "if you can see it, you can kill it".

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One shot...One Kill

[This message has been edited by Iron Duke (edited 01-17-2001).]

[Max Hit Probability]

Jeff,

actually I don't have any "proof" that they did better. But that will change. And please remember that I am saying this based on the stationary Elite Nashorn firing 8 rounds at a stationary AFV.

BTW: 3000 meters is a long shot, but one easily made...at least by the M1A1. Even on the move AND the target moving.

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One shot...One Kill

[Ass Kicker of the Month!]

ATTENTION:

The Semi-finals have commenced!

All the maps are out and I await your purchases.

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One shot...One Kill

[Max Hit Probability]

rexford,

thanks for your chart. No offence, but I still think those numbers are way too conservative for the 88L71, especially for Elite gunners.

Those numbers, though probably numerically accurate, do not coincide with what the Nashorn was routinely able to do to the Russians. There is something that is missing from your estimates, I do not profess to know what that is, but even 48% after 8 rounds is just not right.

See, what you are saying is that less than HALF the time, even after firing 8 rounds at a stationary target, the Nashorn with a crew that had been there from the start...knows this weapon system like the back of their hands...is simply intimate with it...and have probably killed at least 5 to 10 enemy AFV's, still cannot hit its target? Just doesn't fit. No matter how much your calculator tells you that this is the most they could do...it's just not right.

Jeff...do you have any other accounts of the Nashorn in action?

I still EAGERLY await BTS's input on this...please guys, we could really use you here. We are on to something that could potentially "fix" med to long range gunnery but need your expert advice.

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One shot...One Kill

[Max Hit Probability]

Dittohead,

thank you for that info. Good stuff.

It seems, by those charts, that subsequent rounds tend to increase the chance to hit by 10 to 50%!! This seems about right from my own time on the gunnery range. In game, using my initial Nashorn trials, would have meant that after the Nashorns first shot, it could have had between 20 to 60% chance to hit the M8! (We could call it 15 to 25% because they were an elite crew). So on the third shot, if we say 15% per shot, a 40% chance could have been had...then 55% and so on. This is way better than the observed 10%. (I would say 20-25% for elite crews myself but that's up to BTS)

This would also account for the kills the Nashorn routinely had on the East front.

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[Max Hit Probability]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>You are correct in that bracketing does not follow a logical course of execution in CM. But as has been explained by either Steve of Charles…the CM gunnery model was never intended to tackle this. Rather (and I am guessing here) the model employs some sort of "to hit" function, with all kinds of input stimuli that could potentially effect accuracy. One input parameter is apparently "subsequent rounds fired on the same target"…some sort of acquisition bonus. Unfortunately this bonus seems to be a simple boost in the "to hit probability". So even in an ideal situation where a gunner is zeroed in on a stationary target…he has gotten a hit…this does not mean that there is a real good chance of a 2nd hit occurring. So even though a real world gunner has the range down pat from the previous hit…the next round could easily go 200 meters over and 150 meters wide of the target<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hmmm...this is sad news. I have been dreaming of the tank battles to come in the next CM...I hope they can figure something out by then. Hell, I wish they could do something with this CM.

BTS...could we get some input on this bracketing issue?

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One shot...One Kill

[Max Hit Probability]

Yes,

the thing that stands out is the "thereafter" after the 8th shot. The to hit bonus should continue to rise shouldn't it? Just because it is the X number shot shouldn't mean the gunner just gives up on improving his lay.

Rexford,

could you make a couple of charts for Reg and Elites at 3000 meters? I would be very interested to see those.

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One shot...One Kill

[Max Hit Probability]

Rexford,

are you getting these figures from a book or are you calculating them out?

I think they are great and I would LOVE to see them IN THE GAME. But the sad fact is that it doesn't work that way IN Combat Mission.

Do a 3000 meter test IN the game for yourself and see that the to hit percentage does not reflect what you are saying...although I wish it did!

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One shot...One Kill

[Max Hit Probability]

Rexford,

I am not doubting your prowess in physics here! Good job, kudos, here is a metal!

I am simply making an observation within the game: No matter how many times that Elite Nashorn fires, even with the crew supposedly being able to adjust fire, its to hit percentage never rises above 10%. Now, we have to ask how in the world the Nashorn was able to routinely hit and destroy targets at 3000 to 4500 meters on the Russian front? It seems that those Nashorns of old should have NEVER of hit those targets, so are we to say that they all got lucky? Like your M18's you noted before? I doubt that.

Jeff:

As I noted in my test...the vehicles do not matter, they could have been a Panzer V vs an Easy Eight...the results would have been the same. Each of those vehicles, no matter how many times they fired, would have never had gotten a higher to hit percentage than 10%, which to me, having fired tank guns using standard optics, is just not right. I'll give you that todays weapons and optics are a far cry from WWII BUT, the methods and results of bracketing a target are no different. Anyway...I guess I am not making my self clear here.

Physics...good

Bracketing...bad

Better?

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One shot...One Kill

[Max Hit Probability]

Rexford,

that is all fine and dandy, but still does not address the fact that the bracketing bonus in CM during gameplay will not rise above 10% for this vehicle. That's why I also said that perhaps it should be 80% and not 90+%...hell, even 70% would be infinitely better than the 10% we see now.

I hope I am explaining my self clearly here. I am NOT after what each shot can do in terms of dispersement etc...but what I AM after is that a stationary Nashorn firing at a stationary M8, should have more than 10% chance to hit the M8 after firing off 8 frik'n shots!! Or better, after firing off 24 AP rounds.

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One shot...One Kill

[Max Hit Probability]

Great post guys. I'd like to add my .02$ here. What I want to point out is what is actually seen in CM rather than the theoretical and hard physics of the real world.

Test:

3000m

1 Elite Nashorn

1 Elite M8

Level ground, no obstacles, both stationary

The units are really not that special for what I want to bring out.

At this range, the Nashorn starts with a 2% chance to hit the M8, while the M8 gets a 1% chance.

Now, to quote above:

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>This is a lot better than a WW II tank (German tanks included) that usually needed 8 rounds or so to get a kill.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

So if we are in agreement that this ratio of 8 rounds for 1 hit is correct, then can we say that on round #8, the Nashorns to hit probability should be in the neighborhood of 90+ %?? Or at least, since the crew is Elite, 80% (With all other detrimental factors weighed in?) I would say yes. But what we see in Combat Mission is that, bracketing does not apply on a round by round basis or if it does, it only raises to a set number and goes no further.

In the above test this is what happened. (Aside from the occasional kill because of a lucky shot)

Turn 1:

Nashorn 2% to hit prob: fired 8 rounds no hits

Greyhound 1% to hit: fired 13 rounds no hits

Turn 2:

Nashorn 10% to hit: fired 8 more rounds no hits

Greyhound 3% to hit: fired 14 rounds no hits

Turn 3:

Nashorn 10% to hit: fired 7 rounds no hits

Greyhound 3% to hit: fired 14 rounds no hits

Turn 4:

Nashorn 10% to hit: fired 7 rounds no hits

Greyhound 3% to hit: fired 15 rounds no hits

Turn 4:

Nashorn KO's M8 with 1 more round @ 10% to hit. Lucky shot

I repeated this test quite a few times, and yes there where a number of times that the battle did not last longer than 2 turns, but that is not the point. The point is that, BRACKETING is the root for all the gunnery problems seen.

Take this example:

The crew of the Nashorn, using learned techniques, could say estimate the range to 2000 meters for the first shot. They then see that it is way low, so they add 500meters for the 2nd shot. Still low, add 500 more, now they see that they are in the "ballpark". So, at this point, IMO the bracketing figure should be somewhere in the vicinity of 30 to 35% to hit with the next round. Then say the next round is fired but this time it is a bit too high and sails over the M8, that miss would STILL ADD to the to hit probability for the next round because that is how bracketing works. So for the next shot, they should have a 40 to 50% chance to hit, and so on, until they reach the 8 to 1 ratio. Where at round #8, they should have hit the M8.

I think this would cure most of the long range accuracy problems SEEN in CM.

I do not think the underlying physics are incorrect for accuracy, but I do think that the follow on shots (especially at a stationary target) are not getting a bracketing bonus, as seen in play.

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One shot...One Kill

[This message has been edited by Iron Duke (edited 01-16-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Iron Duke (edited 01-16-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Iron Duke (edited 01-16-2001).]

[Ass Kicker of the Month!]

Ok guys,

sorry about the long delay. Just wanted to tell you that the Semi-finals will begin tonight once I get home from work, etc...

Expect maps tonight.

That is all.

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One shot...One Kill

[Nashorn useful? (operation spoiler warning)]

Keith,

its not just a matter of...well the 37mm could shoot out to 12,000 yards...big deal. Hitting a hull down target (1 x 2 meters at most), 2500 to 3500 meters is entirely different. The small weight of the 37mm APC round would cause its velocity and thus momentum to drop off very quickly, even with its 2900 ft/sec initial mv, it would NOT retain its velocity nearly as well as the 88L71 round would at say 1500 to 2000 meters. The small 37mm would have a HUGE drop compared to the 88, therefore hitting anything, especially something that small at over 1500 to 2000 meters would be lucky at best. I will grant that within 1500 meters it is a very useful weapon, but anything beyond that, and especially beyond 2000 meters and it's just not practical to shoot with.

I would ask those with the physics charts to please step in here and give us some hard numbers.

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One shot...One Kill

[Nashorn useful? (operation spoiler warning)]

LOL!

Oh Keith...

First off...no one is passing judgement on the game. We ALL love this game to death...and probably more.

Secondly...while it is true that 37mm has a rapid rate of fire, one thing that you forget is that the M8 Greyhound does not have a Gyro stabilizer, furthermore, the ranges this operation is dealing with are all over 1500 meters, and more frequently 2500 to 3500 meters.

So I suggest you try the operation out before jumping in with both feet here, ok?

I could send it to you if you'd like? Let me know.

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One shot...One Kill

[For ANYONE with a CD scratch on the bottom...]

LOL!!

Tiger

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One shot...One Kill

[Nashorn useful? (operation spoiler warning)]

Illo,

thanks for your reply.

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Idea of operation is very good. And map couldn't be more ideal to Nashorns. I cant see any problems if enemy couldn't "jump" in city without never having to attack in it. But that problem we have in every operation.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yeah, I wanted to use the Nashorns because IMO, they are far underrated and underused in CM. This operation shows how a true defense in depth really works...its too bad about the "getting thrown out of your held ground" thing with operations, I even set the No mans land to 80m. BUT, this also gives the operation another quality, the Germans, even with their small force, must counter-attack in order to maintain control of the rail yard. So many operations and scenario's I have fought completely lack a defense in depth...its usually "ok get to the town and that's where all the Germans are. Which in reality, is a joke. Unfortunately, this operation completely brings out the inadequacy of the Ai vs a human opponent...I think this OP would be better suited to human vs human play.

Question: Have you tried the OP as the Amis yet? Also, just because you won the first 10 minutes doesn't mean you can win the battle Please continue with the OP and try and regain the ground that you lost.

Please keep your evaluation coming and please let me know where the operation is good and where it sucks...

Thanks again,

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One shot...One Kill

[Nashorn useful? (operation spoiler warning)]

Illo,

thanks for trying out my operation. I feel your pain when it comes to the Elite Nashorns...they should pulverize those M8's but alas, there is still something wrong with either the accuracy or bracketing of armored vehicles in CM. (Whether you choose to accept it or not...plenty of gameplay brings this up to the surface quite easily)

Anyway, I have found that in CM you need to use different tactics when using tank destroyers with thin skin like the Nashorn.

Definitions:

Tophat: This is the condition when an AFV is basically "Hulldown".

Lowsky: This is the condition when an AFV is basically "Turret down" but the Tank commander can still see over the berm/ridge.

Nashorn tactics for Combat Mission:

1) Instead of Hunting forward, which will force your Nashorn to tophat for the entire minute of wego...use the Move command.

2) With a combination of Move and Reverse, give your Nashorns two Tophats and lowskys in the same firing position.

3) After 2 tophats, reverse down and give your Nashorn a Fast move to another firing position at least 50 to 75 meters from the old position. The reasoning is that you want the enemy to have to reacquire your Nashorn at its new position rather than simply making a minor gun-lay adjustment.

4) Rinse, repeat.

The only problem with this is that your Nashorns will be EVEN MORE inaccurate than they already are! BUT, it is better for them to live and keep missing than it is for them to get maybe 1 kill and die early in the operation.

I hope this helps you out.

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One shot...One Kill

[This message has been edited by Iron Duke (edited 01-15-2001).]

[New operation "Tag des Nashorns"]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Ya Duke.

Jeesh, you dumb ass.

C'mon folks, have mercy on Duke, he is a retired DAT.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

LoL...once again Sergeant, I was waiting for your remarks!

Anyway,

thanks to everyone for trying it out and even to you Rob/1, for putting your ass out where everyone can take a shot at it!

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One shot...One Kill

[Ass Kicker of the Month!]

Gents,

thank you for finishing up in time. Unfortunately, an unexpected issue has come up on my part and I will not be around this weekend.

Rest assured that the Semi-Finals WILL commence on Monday the 22nd.

Till then, rest your men up, gather your wits and prepare for battle.

Please see updated bracket.

Second Round Bracket: Tyrannic 12

TBlaster

vs.-----------------TBlaster

Kunzler

1)

Def Bungis

vs.-----------------Def Bungis

Jeff Heidman

==============================

SuperSlug

vs.-----------------SuperSlug

Stoffel

2)

Bil Hardenberger

vs.-----------------Joeski

Joeski

==============================

Texastoast

vs.-----------------Texastoast

Kain

3)

Speedy

vs.-----------------Speedy

Chairman7w

=============================

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One shot...One Kill

[New operation "Tag des Nashorns"]

If anyone would like to check out this operation please let me know.

It deals with operation "Cobra" and the "Third Herd".

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One shot...One Kill

[New operation "Tag des Nashorns"]

Rob/1

Thank you for that tip...I should have checked before I posted!

Next time...

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One shot...One Kill

[New operation "Tag des Nashorns"]

If anyone would like to try this operation out let me know, I will email it to you right away.

It deals with operation "Cobra" and the "Third Herd".

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One shot...One Kill

[Tired of Endless Pershing vs KT PBEM Games?]

Funny how players that normally play the Germans tend to want to limit the Allies in one form or the other. Either they can't have Arty or Aircraft. And then say..."Oh yeah, my Panther is equall to your M4A3(76), honest"

LoL...

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[Fighting breaks out in the desert!]

Great work. Outstanding. I can't wait to try it out.

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One shot...One Kill

[Ass Kicker of the Month!]

TBlaster and the rest:

Since none of you responded, I guess the deadline has moved yet again. The FINAL deadline is now Jan. 13th, have your battles done by then as the Semi-Finals commence on Sunday the 14th.

I hope this is enough time for you guys. Please proceed with all haste.

Out.

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One shot...One Kill