Elmar Bijlsma

Well, if you are running low on troops you have to put the DPR conscripts somewhere...

And barring an utterly craven Western response, use of a nuke would bring China and the entire 'fence sitting' world urgently into the 'shut this maniac down, right now!' camp.
There is absolutely no 'win' for China in a nuclear war, whether or not it is a target (at once).
Among other consequences, I predict Japan would kit out a Trident fleet within 6 months to warn off both Xi and L'il Kim.

In this night Russians struck with heavy bombs from Tu-22M3 the place, under which was Azov's underground hospital. Reportedly one bomb, penetrated into the deep and caused partial destruction of the shelter. Surgical room is destroyed completely, there are casualties among injured soldiers and civilaians. Two days ago Azov showed photos from own underground hospital, where was about 500-600 injured. Medical teams still working in this hellish conditions and perform surgical operations. The hospital was deployed here on the second day of war, when was decided Azovstal would became the main base of Mariupol defense and its last stand.  
Here the photos, issued two daus ago:



 
 

And in the same day Russian TV showed as Azovstal employee, the engineer, collaborating with Russians, showed to them under which facilities of Azovstal passed underground communications and where the shelters located. Azovstal is huge plant, which bigger than some Ukrainain cities, for example it bigger than Lutsk. So, Russians before this bombed Azovstal randomly. But looks like after this betrayal they adjusted their attacks and achieved some success. Reportedly after heavy bombs exploded, Russian conducted about 50 single sorties with tactical jets and then shelled territory with naval guns.
After attacks finished, Ukr troopers became disassemble ruines:
 

I am reading an awful lot of vicious slander against the glorious wunderwaffe that is the Gavin. 🤪
But tell me, is there any other IFV  that if it gets holed by gunfire or shrapnel you can restore, nay, improve its armouring by duck-taping a flattened soda can over the hole? No, there isn't! The end of tanks IS neigh, our prophet has foretold it!
 
Anyway, I hope the Ukrainians weren't counting on the Dutch PzH2000s.
The Dutch army's (or rather, the various associations that surround it) response to the offer was: "You are going to do what now?". The feeling is that the Dutch defence has been cut to the bone and that what is needed is not for us to send the warehoused PzHs to Ukraine but to fund the re-activation of those things by the Dutch army itself. A fair point, sadly. Our artillery assets are currently pitiful.
And apparently there was no plan to send the support vehicles for comms and planning fire missions. So the Ukrainians would've just gotten the tubes, not the fancy abilities of the whole platform.
 
And to really top it off, the whole thing is still in a preliminary planning phase. Knowing the Dutch MoD, they are going to come to a definite decision any year now. And it'll probably be the wrong decision that does no-one any good, here or in Ukraine.
I think the one good outcome so far is that it was one of the first offers of modern heavy material and got others to commit their stuff. But **** me, what a shambles.
 
 

I am reading an awful lot of vicious slander against the glorious wunderwaffe that is the Gavin. 🤪
But tell me, is there any other IFV  that if it gets holed by gunfire or shrapnel you can restore, nay, improve its armouring by duck-taping a flattened soda can over the hole? No, there isn't! The end of tanks IS neigh, our prophet has foretold it!
 
Anyway, I hope the Ukrainians weren't counting on the Dutch PzH2000s.
The Dutch army's (or rather, the various associations that surround it) response to the offer was: "You are going to do what now?". The feeling is that the Dutch defence has been cut to the bone and that what is needed is not for us to send the warehoused PzHs to Ukraine but to fund the re-activation of those things by the Dutch army itself. A fair point, sadly. Our artillery assets are currently pitiful.
And apparently there was no plan to send the support vehicles for comms and planning fire missions. So the Ukrainians would've just gotten the tubes, not the fancy abilities of the whole platform.
 
And to really top it off, the whole thing is still in a preliminary planning phase. Knowing the Dutch MoD, they are going to come to a definite decision any year now. And it'll probably be the wrong decision that does no-one any good, here or in Ukraine.
I think the one good outcome so far is that it was one of the first offers of modern heavy material and got others to commit their stuff. But **** me, what a shambles.
 
 

Hi all, another long time dormant member here re-emerging to say thanks for such a great thread. This really is the best analysis of the war I know of, due to the mix of on the ground people (Haiduk, kraze) and knowledgeable experts from lots of different backgrounds. 
I keep thinking about what a Russian or Ukrainian armoured offensive would actually look like in practice. They would require some kind of staging area, but surely these would be visible to ubiquitous drones and then nailed with a arty/air/SRBM strike before they leave the starting line? How long would it take for a brigade or more to assemble like that, or do modern armies stay dispersed even just before a big push?
Maybe that is why the Russians have not concentrated for their big offensive? They would be too vulnerable before the order to move out? But if that is the case, how does the UA solve that problem?
 

We're way past "Coincidence" at this stage, I feel.
Once is unfortunate
Twice is coincidence
Three times is enemy action.

And I'm actually really surprised at this move from Putin. By taking charge of it he is accepting responsibility for the outcome. If he ordered a retreat back to the border right now he could point fingers at the FSB and the military, use them as scapegoats and maybe survive. If he continues the attacks at some point it is going to reach the catastrophic point with the assistance of the UA. A big loss and route back to the border under his command and I don't think he even gets a choice of poison, noose or kinetic.

I'm usually down in the weeds on this stuff but there have been some really good eye openers about Russia in this thread. That, and the storm outside, has led me down a rabbit hole today of looking at a lot of the macro, geopolitical and historical stuff with Russia. That all leads me to question if the Russian Federation survives this. 
Militarily they are sunk, we have established that they will hit a point of no return where they can't come back. The longer this goes the more contract soldiers they lose the worse shape the whole structure is in. Sanctions are already causing their large armaments and high tech armament factories to shut down and it will only get worse with time. I suspect they will try to intensify the campaign which will only intensify their losses. The other place we are going to see high attrition is in their air force. Airframes need a lot more maintenance and their high end stuff relies on high tech spare parts so once the stocks are depleted the air force is grounded. With a gutted army, an impotent navy and a flightless air force Moscow is in trouble.
They are trying like h*ll to keep their economy running but it isn't going to work and it is going to crash and burn. They suffered a big brain drain over the past couple decades which was just spiked and will only continue to get worse when those with opportunities abroad don't have opportunities at home.
The Federation is made up of ethnic Russians and conquered peoples. They have had a lot of trouble with the conquered peoples the last couple decades. Even their "friendly" neighbors like Kazakhstan have been friendly pretty much only out of fear. The mighty RA was able to beat down the smaller regions but if it is gutted and burned out in Ukraine that changes the game for all the other regions. No one other than Russians likes to be under Russian rule. Those that have suffered under it and are now free appear to be very passionate about maintaining their freedom. They are also beacons to those that would prefer autonomy.
Most people are talking about whether or not Putin survives this. I'm thinking the question should be does the Russian Federation survive this? With or without Putin the fundamental problems of the country don't change. I don't think we can 100% predict what is going to happen and everything I've said may be wrong, but I'm putting my money on the Russian Federation being a really big Yugoslavia 1990. 

I was thinking about this too. I suppose short term whatever can be pushed in will have to do even though there will be a logistics nightmare. The ammunition is streamlined but spare parts and servicing is where it will get complicated.
For the long term I think the UA needs to fully swap to NATO systems, except for what they can provide from their own MIC (Neptunes, Stugna's, etc). With that being said the majority of their equipment would probably be US. As we have discussed before there is just more available but there is also the lend lease legislation that should make it possible to obtain large amounts to refit forces quickly. I don't think everything would necessarily have to come from there though. The big thing though is to narrow the weapon systems down. Say ok, MBT's M1's, SPG's Pzh2000, etc. Clean up the maintenance/spare parts problems tremendously.

Unfortunately this is likely to be a morale-booster for the Russian troops at the front.

Standard play is "somebody else's kids" so they will milk that cow until it bleats (already have).
As to 100k or even 200k.  In the west it takes us about 1-2 years to create a functioning basic infantry person.  That is basic and battle school, even our reserves here in Canada take at least a year.  These are totally inexperienced with no heavy weapons training, minimum fieldcraft and just enough skill not to shoot themselves or each other too often.  
But this rabble do not make a tactical unit.  You need NCOs, Officers, technical specialist etc.  A recce troop takes 3-5 years to make, a good NCO 5-10, a junior officer (if one waives a degree requirement) 2-3 years - more if they are in a technical trade. 
So yes, if they want kids standing in trenches holding a rifle they could technically "mobilize".  But they will not hold ground under pressure and forget anything complex like offense.  I mean if you want third world quality, sure Russia can mobilize but they will get crushed in days.  The UA is producing veterans at an alarming rate, to the point I would be concerned about taking them on with a western military right now.  They are on their home soil so no worries about motivation, and they are being equipped with some of the best weapon systems in human history.  But I am sure Russia will stick an 18 year old with strange holes and stains on his uniform, in a different country, no real support and an AK with one mag and call it a "Wall of Steel".   

I am pressing the "X to doubt" button. I have seen too much exotic stuff being carried to believe that it is all piling up at Lviv. This is CNN working through their Afghanistan trauma.

https://youtu.be/NIItoD1Ebh0
Oh boy.

I am pressing the "X to doubt" button. I have seen too much exotic stuff being carried to believe that it is all piling up at Lviv. This is CNN working through their Afghanistan trauma.

I am pressing the "X to doubt" button. I have seen too much exotic stuff being carried to believe that it is all piling up at Lviv. This is CNN working through their Afghanistan trauma.

I am pressing the "X to doubt" button. I have seen too much exotic stuff being carried to believe that it is all piling up at Lviv. This is CNN working through their Afghanistan trauma.

Some frontline news:
Mariupol. After a time of next ultimatum has gone Russians hammered Azovstal with FAB-3000 from Tu-22M3 and heavy artillery (maybe 2S4 240 mm siege mortars too). Azov command made a statement the plant territory almost all ruined, they try to take out survived people, dead and wounded from ruins. Russians at this moment don't advance forward. About 1000 civilaians hide in plant undergrounds   
Zaporizhzhia axix: Russians throughout the day desparately attacked our troops in Huliaypole area to establish better conditions to the entering in the battle rest of forces, but hadn't sucess.
Velyka Novosilka axis (JTO south): Russians decided outflank our troops west from this settlement and to breakthrough between Huliaypole and Velyka Novosilka. They advanced from Liubymivka to the line of ponds and the dam near Temyrivka village
JTO: Russians could take Maryinka under own control, but our forces after regrouping counter-atatcked and retaken the settlement. In Rubizhne all attempts of enemy to move further where repelled. Now Russians and separs control about half of the city. Calshes around Kreminna.
Kherson oblast: Russians launched attack on the north of Kherson oblast to take back positions, lost in previuous weeks, but hadn't success
Kharkiv oblast: multiple attempts of small armored battlegroups to infiltrate through our positions and find the hole in our defense - no success.     

Tweet thread goes on to note that these helos are forced to stay down on the deck, increasing crew losses.
2. Second Guards Tank Battalion has learned the first lesson in How Not To Be Seen: not to stand up! However, they have chosen a rather obvious bit of cover....
3.  On the not quite so funny side, amazing CM-level 4 style drone footage of a tactical infantry ambush, with some grim mop-up at the end. It's all shot from a distance, but still....
Looks to me like hapless OMON cops being whacked, based on the black uniforms and body armour (and civvie vehicles)... and total absence of tactical drills.  You guys were talking about cops....  
 

I just came across those photos. Yay or nay - is this Moskva? Are those legit and not photoshopped?
 

well, if they knew where UKR command posts were they would be hitting them already.  What a joke!  As if UKR is causing provocations to which RU must respond.  There's just no word for it except Chutzpah.

For over two decades, Steve has found time to mix it up with us grognards. Far from taking away from development, I think it only improves the end product.
Who do you want to make your wargames for you: someone that watches CNN and thinks himself up to date, or someone voraciously doomscrolling and discussing events here?

Finally some good news for the Russians. They lost an asset that Ukrainian farmers won't tow away.
They are getting better at this!

Finally some good news for the Russians. They lost an asset that Ukrainian farmers won't tow away.
They are getting better at this!

Finally some good news for the Russians. They lost an asset that Ukrainian farmers won't tow away.
They are getting better at this!