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Elmar Bijlsma

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Posts posted by Elmar Bijlsma

  1. Been a minute since i dipped my toes into this thread, but I have questions about the Moscow attack I cannot figure out.

     

    So, according to one of the Tajiks confessing after a thorough beating, he was a rando contracted for the attack via Telegram two weeks ahead of time and subsequently armed for it by persons unknown to him.

    But recalling the video of the attackers entering the hallway calmly and at a steady interval, I am somewhat dubious these are randos with a mere two weeks notice. The behaviour just doesn't line up with what I would expect from a bunch of untrained strangers roped into the attack. To me, it looks like trained fighters who know what to do and are familiar with each other.

    And then, in a rare act of competence, Russian security services manage to identify and find the guys involved (who I remind you seem to have had no previous terrorism ties!)  and who aren't lying low or heading to the Stans but headed to a place they'll stand out more than in Moscow.

     

    Now, Russia grabbing the first ethnically appropriate patsies to beat a confession out of is hardly unheard of, but that might become inconvenient if ISIS-K starts parading the actual perpetrators around. So that doesn't make sense.

    My other line of thinking is that ISIS are not known for working directly but via middlemen. What if the middlemen were Russian? But then, what exactly is their play? Sowing chaos? They hardly needed terror attacks to get their security services more power to do whatever they want.

    To blame Ukraine? Maybe, but then ISIS-K claims it and taints that scenario, even though clearly they are trying to play the Ukraine card anyway. But it seems a lot of trouble to go through for dubious payoff. Not that confusion isn't bread and butter of Russian PsyOps.

     

    I don't know what to make of it all except that assuming the Russians are lying scumbags capable of any depravity has so far served me too well to start believing their official line.

  2. 2 hours ago, dan/california said:

    Even with overhead observation this Russian assault group gets their heads handed to them.

    I question if the drone operator wasn't doing more harm than good. His directions are vague and untimely.

    The Ukrainians are holed up near the dead Russian? I think there's probably more than one dead Russian in that field and the one near the Ukrainian trench is probably not the corpse the Russian attackers would seen as they went forward. This presents the attackers with (incorrect) information that they cannot ignore or even question: They just walked past a Ukr position.

     

    Same with the direction of "to your left". Left of our line of advance? Left of where my body is proned towards? Left of where I am looking? Left of where I was looking 5 seconds ago? Because that's the time it takes to pass along information. For that matter, left of where any of my fireteam was looking at any point? None of it is usable information and is only likely to wrongfoot the recipient. Note that they eventually face away from the threat! Meanwhile the dipstick drone guy has compass right in his view! There's a reason you are trained to read a compass!

     

    And again with his "He's reloading". He's late on making the call, understandable as he needs to interpret the actions he sees from afar before he passes the info along. But that is the problem, he passes it on to his buddy who repeats it into a radio. By the time anyone on the business end even gets the word the Ukr is reloading, the Ukr has reloaded and is ready to work. As a result any Russian acting on this word of warning does his heroics at the absolute very worst moment to do it.

     

    If that drone operator used his tablet to download and view porn instead of giving guidance to the attack, the attackers would have had a better chance.

  3. 1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

    I've read Tat for a while; my impression ref his opinion on Bakhmut was that while the strategic defence had certain value, the chosen defensive positions and terrain negated that benefit.

    The cost for Ukraine was increased because Bakhmut was not a defence-favourable area -  the ridges West of it provided far better defensive value and far too many Ukrainians were killed defending useless terrain with low tactical value. 

    The kill ratio was not as favourable as it could (and should) have been.  Even as high as it was, there was better terrain very close by. 

    I've tended to agree with him,  albeit also agreeing with Crunching any Russian advance. Any topological survey of Bakhmut highlights what a bad place it is to defend. It was no Verdun. 

     

    Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.

    The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.

    And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.

     

    To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

  4. Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.

    So how about everyone calms their tits?

     

  5. 4 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

    Interesting. I have heard of this phenomenon many times before, but I've never heard a proverb for it before. Unfortunately proverbs don't tend to translate well from one language to the next ("Fear has big eyes" almost works in English, but it might need some workshopping).

    One of my favourite lines in Firefly is after Jayne gets attacked from behind by a victim of the Reivers. Once the assailant is caught and turns out to be smaller than reported, Jayne defensively retorts: "He looked bigger when I couldn't see him"

  6. 9 hours ago, akd said:

    Wait, did ZOKA turn at some point, or is this parody?

    If I recall correctly, his identity was revealed a few weeks back and he deleted his account soon after the backlash hit. A fella went "thank you very much" and took over the free real estate and is running it as a pro Ukraine account.

  7. Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.

    That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

  8. 3 hours ago, akd said:

    Explosion is first, with fragments hitting the tank and around the tank, followed by more dust / smoke kicking up on and around the tank.  Actual point of detonation is forward and left of the tank by a bit.

    Yeah, that shot looks like it went to the left of the leading tank. Somewhat inconsiderate if the lead driver had the time to dismount his stricken tank.

    The real question is: Where did the previous shot (0:42) from the same offender go? I see no impact in the back of the lead tank, but I struggle to think where else it could have gone. Perhaps over? Regardless, the gunner in that rear tank is a liability.

  9. 8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    This is about Russia's first unmanned mission to the Moon in something like 50 years.  The short of it is that like so many Russian things we've talked about here, something went very wrong ;) What exactly isn't really know because, also typical of Russia, the information out there is vague at best.

    The meme template that keeps on giving:

    newAFUrecruit.jpg

  10. As others have pointed out, there will be holes in EVERYTHING. Not just engine parts.

    Holes in your wheels, brake discs, suspension, chassis, fuel system, axel, electronics. Pretty much everything is buggered.

     

    There was footage, not long after GMLRS was introduced, of a Russian maintenance and repair dude going over a Ural that was exposed to tungsten rain. And boy, did he have an opinion on his superiors asking him to fix it.

  11. Cannot believe I missed it but Dutch state broadcaster NOS had an article claiming War Gonzo was possibly killed.

    Sauce:

    https://nos.nl/artikel/2479807-belangrijke-russische-oorlogspropagandist-wargonzo-mogelijk-gesneuveld-in-loopgraaf

    DeepL-ed excerpt:

    Quote

     

    It seems that 'WarGonzo', one of Russia's best-known military bloggers, died this week. Semyon Pegov, as his real name was, was seen as a front soldier in the Kremlin's information war.

    Those who follow the war in Ukraine closely have probably seen him. Shouting into his phone on selfie mode, with his distinctive voice reminiscent of Kermit the Frog from the Muppet show.

    Whether he is really dead is not certain, but images are circulating of the Ukrainian marine who allegedly shot him, in a trench near Robotyne. That is south of Zaporizhzhya, where the Ukrainians are now trying to advance. A comparison of the photos taken just before his death with Ukrainian bodycam footage seems to show that this is Pegov.

    But one hundred per cent certainty about his death is thus lacking. Pegov's Twitter account reports that he is still alive. This does include a picture of him in winter clothes, so that picture is not current and presumably he did not post it himself. There is also a report that he is in a hospital in Luhansk and is brain dead.

    The image from the trench is that of battle in its rawest form. Ukrainians run through the narrow corridors, mowing down anyone they come across. WarGonzo - if it is him - comes running and gets a late glimpse of the soldier killing him. From less than a metre away, the soldier shoots the man, who has a gun at the ready.

    While NOS is usually bit short on inside sources in conflicts, they don't usually publish any old wild rumour.

     

    EDIT

    Some Russian channels say he is in hospital, braindead. I'd call that a pre-existing condition.

  12. 20 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Looking at this I wonder how Russia hits anything it aims at with dumb bombs.  This was ideal circumstances... good weather, flat open terrain, VERY obvious target that could be spotted many miles away, and yet both of Russia's most advanced bombers missed their targets by a wide margin.

    Steve

    Those  bombs weren't dumb. They were retarded.

     

    My bad upbringing made me do this.

  13. 5 minutes ago, Fenris said:

    Linked on Ilija Ponomarenko's feed - I have no idea what this really is, if it's 'real' or just epic trolling - stay tuned I suppose

    Seems like they are trying to force Russia to respond to an attack on Holy Mother Russia, in a conveniently far out of the way place from where the real fighting is expected.

     

    It could indicate that the long awaited attack is near. You don't do diversionary attacks like this if you aren't ready to go in 2-3 days.

  14. 8 hours ago, Fenris said:

     

    This would be a great result if it's correct.

    Btw... Ahh, what exactly is a SuperCum?

    Jeez, just use Google. I am sure you get quite the education. Just... you know... maybe don't try it at work.

     

    Real, boring, answer: Apparently there's a recce drone that goes by the name of "Supercam". Though the Supercum question is now all over Twitter and I love it.

  15. Certainly seen my fair share of troops seemingly sleeping or feigning death in the hope of avoiding the attention of the drones bombers.

    But in my viewing of drone and combat videos these last few weeks, there's a very constant theme of trenches littered with Russians that are obviously dead. And not infrequently, as far as it can be determined, some of the dead are a bit ripe.

    That does seem to point towards a certain psychological breaking point being reached. Not recovering your dead or even chucking them over the parapet are indicators of a very grim mindset having set in. Of course, that is not an indicator of fragile morale. It may even be evidence of a fatalistic mindset amongst Russians that they will endure whatever they need to. OTOH I think troops that let their dead buddies lie where they fell aren't first in line to take the initiative in a fight.

    All in all, I have confidence that the Ukrainians will be able to break through wherever they decide to launch their big attacks. And I have very little faith in the Russians in their current state being up to the task of slowing or stopping an advance once they break through. If the reserve trenches fail to stop the Ukrainians, the latter can keep going until logistics or the Azov sea forces them to stop, I think.

     

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