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Osama Bin Ladin Has Been Killed


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Yep, JonS, that's true too. I'm at a loss for what to do next. Canada's too damn cold, I could go back to my native Italy but can't stomach Berlusconi, Ukraine (where my wife hails from) is too corrupt, so that leaves me stuck here in the US of A.

Seriously, though, I think we could remedy a lot of our national policy issues if we funded political campaigns differently...but that's probably a dream as well.

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You should drop the patronising tone mate.

that would spoil thepatronising effect - which was deliberate......mate.

Whether the killing is justified or retaliation or murder is simply a matter of perspective.

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That is the root of the problem, until such time as we gain the maturity as a species to move beyond the law of the jungle we are doomed to continue on this path.

First you say it's a matter of perspective, then yuo state it as a moral imperative as if your perspective is more important than everyone else's.

We've evolved into the animals we are over a billion years or so.......expecting significant change in the mere 10,000 years or so of "civilisation" and 60 years of "western liberalism" is unrealistic...childish even IMO.

I prefer to deal with the reality of what we are now and for the foreseable future.

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Well, I think that Osama getting shot down is an unquestioned success for the US and given the circumstances probably the best success they were ever going to get. If I think about it and squint a bit I can even work up a bit of sympathy for people like bin Laden, as awful as they are they do it because of morality: here is a person deeply concerned with right and wrong. But he got what was coming, and good riddance. The world is better off without a nut like him.

The real question, I think, is not whether the US did right or was deploying all that energy and force to hunt Bin Laden down worth it. That's done. What needs to be asked is, "OK, he's dead. So the war on terrorism is over, right? We can bring every one home, get the national guard back to doing BBQs and carwashes, RIF about half the military and spend it on roads and schools, right?"

Because it would really suck, after all this effort and expense and pain and death and everything else, that the people making the decisions now say "Uh, great that we got him but everything else is the same, we need to keep shipping soldiers out on 4 or 5 combat tours in a row, the economy may suck but the evil terrorists are still out there and we need to fight them even if we're not really sure how many of them there are."

Which, if you start looking at the hints they're kicking out, seems to be precisely what's happening. Which kind of dims the luster the US success, when you stop and think about it.

And if we're going to stop and think, is any one besides me smelling a big fat rat a/k/a a disinformation campaign viz. how Bin Laden supposedly got tracked down? Maybe it's just my tin hat and sunspots, but I'm really scratching my head on several things.

The official story is the CIA working through many a night put all sorts of clues together and identified a house where a pretty important Taliban/Al Quaeda chief was hiding, and the value of the house and some other stuff made it probable old OBL was there himself.

I can't say I've disproved this story in my own mind, but there is a lot of background stink to that nice little plot. Like:

- The people were found to be burning trash, which was suspicious. But how is burning trash suspicious in provincial Pakistani town? This is the third world, what, they have garbage trucks showing up every Tuesday and Thursday? I would say in a place like that the options are either burn your trash or throw it out in the street, and if the suburb is relatively wealthy - which this one was - then burning trash would be pretty normal. Am I missing something, or are we being fed a line?

- Another suspicious "indicator", supposedly, was this house had no telephone. I don't get it. Sure I realize that if the NRO gets interested in a particular building and can move the satellite to the right place, they can get pictures of every foot of the property with enough resolution for a Sports Illustrated cover, and you put enough analysts on it and sure you can get a reasonable guess there is no phone line strung to the building. But you can't be positive. Yet supposedly the Americans were sure. How? A spy walking through the neighborhood? That's improbable, this neighborhood is ISI central, any stranger is going to get noticed. Breaking into the city telephone company computer? Again improbable, this is Pakistan, there have to be tons of illegal phones lines and unregistered cables. No cell phone/mobile phone traffic from that location? Sure the NSA can grab a call if it comes from the complex, but can the NSA confirm no calls at all, for months at a time, from a specific grid?

It's all very weird. Maybe in suburban US "no evidence of phone" seems strange. But in Pakistan, "no evidence of phone" has to be normal, the country's corrupt and chaotic. So why are the Feds telling us "no evidence of a phone" was a good indicator there was some one dangerous inside the house? Any one even marginally familiar with a 3rd world neighborhood inhabited by the relatively wealthy and corrupt wouldn't see anything particularly strange about that, I think.

- Then there's the computers. You read the news reports, the Feds say that one of the big problems in tracking down OBL was he hated computers, didn't trust them, didn't allow their use anywhere near him. Yet when the Seals go through the residence, they get something like five PCs and more than a hundred memory sticks. So what, OBL was cool with computers in the next room? I kind of doubt it, he knew about phone intercepts and so it's pretty reasonable for him to know that if a big country like the US really wanted to, what is tapped out on a computer keyboard can be monitored at some distance, they've been able to pick stuff up like that since the 80s. So if he's computer-phobic, and that makes sense, how did all this computer stuff get in his compound? I don't get it, nor do I get how the contradiction is being made public, as it's US intelligence people that are the source of both sides of the contradiction.

- Another indicator, supposedly, is these high walls and overall value of the compound OBL wound up in. Worth a million dollars and some of the walls 3-4 meters high. But when you stop and think about a really corrupt country like Pakistan, and a neighborhood infested by ISI retirees, that's not extraordinary at all. There have to be plenty of compounds with high walls worth tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars. That's what rich people in poor countries do when they steal from the government: they build a big house and put a big wall around it to keep the riff raff out. So why was this an indicator of a "high value target" to the CIA, like they say?

- This is a little more tin-hatty, but then there's the timing. OBL gets killed and then dumped into the Indian Ocean. Pretty much same day, the Americans announce they did him in, and from the get go they have this great story about dedicated intelligence analysts putting the pieces together to give the special ops boys a good target. I personally find that really, really suspicious. 24-48 hours after a special forces raid hitting a top Al Qaeda leader and supposedly netting all sorts of great intelligence from documents and flash sticks at the site, the Feds have this neat story about how they found him, how they tracked this courier for four years, how the courier made a single error the NSA or some one like them caught, etc. etc.

That doesn't make sense. If you are trying to break up a terrorist group the last thing you do is make public how you managed a big success, that instructs the terrorists on what not to do in the future. Further, assuming the Feds are telling the truth about a intelligence treasure trove of Al Quaeda documents and CDs and so forth, it beggars belief they would see sense in making public even vague details on what data they grabbed - that's a warning to any one in OBL's lists to go into hiding, the Americans are that much closer to busting him.

Yet, if we are to believe them, the Americans did precisely that, they make this great intelligence haul and then like a day or two later they announce it to the world, making most of that information useless. That's simply moronic, at that level of government with that kind of intelligence, they wouldn't do that, too many smart people involved. So what are we to make of the official claim that they did?

I can't say I'm convinced something fishy is going on with all this, but I certainly can't explain it all.

If I had to guess, on balance, I would say we are being lied to, and what really probably happened is that some one close to OBL sold him out, with my number one suspect being some colonel or general in the ISI that was aware of OBL's location, and somehow the Americans got to him, most likely just by paying him off.

OBL apparently made sort of a last will and testament shortly before he got nailed, I imagine it will eventually air on Al Jazeera. From what I read he said his wives should not remarry, his children should not follow in his footsteps, and he also predicts that he will be done in soon by a traitor. I've seen news reports re/ this but not the testament itself, so I don't know for sure if it exists.

But if it does, then that would be another hint towards a theory that all this clever CIA work we're being told about, mostly it meant nothing. It's just a theory at this point, but in my bones somehow I think was by some one's greed and betrayal that gave his location up to the Americans.

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What do your bones tell you about the cell phone intercepts?

The NSA intercepted cell phone calls by the couriers and family members for months, the officials, as part of the 24/7 surveillance of the compound. Along with the overhead imagery, the intelligence derived from the cell phones permitted the US to learn the "patterns of life" at the compound, meaning who came and went and who had responsibility for security.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the courier who used the nom de guerre Abu Ahmad al Kuwaiti, whose real name has not been made public, and others in the compound used cell phones to communicate.

"They didn’t use land lines or the Internet, but they did use something else, cell phones," said the official.

Bin Laden's voice was never heard on cell phone conversations intercepted by the NSA during surveillance prior to Sunday's raid, the official said.

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Given that is was BinLaden it makes perfect sense to me that the administration has to say SOMETHING about how the effort to track him down finally succeeded - it would be much stranger if they'd said nothign at all.

The no-landline thing isn't quite so obvious as you make it IMO - the compound had no wires AT ALL.

And while there may not be garbage trucks in much of Pakistan, it is still apparently normal to take your own rubbish and dump it somewhere - burnign it ALL onsite is apparently not teh norm for the country any more than pickups are.

Moreover by mentioning all these factors they could be being a bit disingeneous - saying that these aspects raised suspicion so people wont' use them in the future, but if they resort to more "usual" behaviour then it would probably make tracking easier - (you get to tap phone lines, examine rubbish)

So this is the yanks saying "See - all your attempts to hide actually drew our attention!", even though they also made tracking harder, trying to persuade other people who are hiding not tp repeat these efforts and therefore being easier to track.

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And while there may not be garbage trucks in much of Pakistan, it is still apparently normal to take your own rubbish and dump it somewhere - burnign it ALL onsite is apparently not teh norm for the country any more than pickups are.

In a lot of Asia and the ME your garbage is taken away by the local untouchables for a small fee. So once a day old Mr Parvaaz and his two sons come along on their donkey cart and you pay them 5 cents to take your crap away. They then pick through it, resell what they can and burn the rest on some wasteland.

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I'm sure that they said some things they intended for everyone to know, and some things that were probably best left unsaid. One thing I've learned is that no administration in the US is really very air-tight when it comes to leaks. In the end, someone want's to get some word out, for whatever reason, and it may not always be the whole truth and may in fact have an agenda behind it.

BD6, you have some cred in this area so I'll grant your comments the weight they deserve. For my part, I'm thinking that this search took on a life of its own after a while, even in the Obama administration. Once bureaucracies pick up such missions, all sorts of weird stuff can happen as various subordinate entities go off on their own, supposedly towards the same common goal. The fact that much of this is compartmentalized worsens the "Fresnel effect" and makes it harder for outside observers to pinpoint what is going on and from what quarters.

My two bits are that things went down pretty much as stated but, given the "fog of war" and the fact that we are also dealing with "foggy bottom" (i.e. the federal government apparatus, not just Dept. of State), we may be years waiting to hear the whole story, or as much of it as we will ever get.

As for your comments about wrapping up the War on Terror (at least I think that's what you're getting at) I would hope we'd start re-evaluating the need for all this paranoia and retrograde action on our civil liberties. I see that the TSA in Texas recently failed some tests where a planted agent passed through airport security wearing a gun in her undies, apparently several times. If things have become such a sham, maybe its time to re-evaluate and press the "re-set" button.

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I see that the TSA in Texas recently failed some tests where a planted agent passed through airport security wearing a gun in her undies, apparently several times. If things have become such a sham, maybe its time to re-evaluate and press the "re-set" button.

That isn't a new development. The TSA has been consistently failing those basic tests of effectiveness for as long as it's existed.

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2007/10/new_tsa_report.html

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/loaded-gun-slips-past-tsa-screeners/story?id=12412458

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2007/11/another_airport.html

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2007/04/another_tsa_fai.html

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2008/08/tsa_follies.html

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2008/01/gun_slips_throu.html

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2005/04/failures_of_air.html

etc.

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I dunno, maybe you guys are right and it was painstaking US intelligence work that located the safe house and placed OBL inside it with a 50 - 80 per cent probability.

SO, did I understand you right, there were no lines at all into the compound, as in no piped in electricity?

Affie, good point, I didn't think of that. The photo analyst guys see trash being burned, the neighbors have the untouchables pick theirs up, there's another hint that whoever is in this compound is extraordinary somehow.

It's pretty much a given the NSA would intercept the cell phone calls of any one thought to be lined to OBL. The question is, could those intercepts lead to a hard location. I guess the answer is "maybe". The couriers/associates almost certainly knew enough not to talk about addresses and names over their own phones, but maybe they chatted enough for the NSA to put things together, you know, conversations like "Where are you right now Abdul, the women are getting hungry!...I'm just turning onto Death to India Street, I still have to pick up tomatoes and bottled water, inshallah we'll be there in 10 minutes." Maybe several conversations like that plus people going over satellite pix of the neighborhood allowed them to narrow locations down to a single house. Could be possible that way.

But somehow, given the people involved, I just think that the Americans finding a traitor willing to rat on OBL is more probable. No proof though, just a hunch.

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BD6- Check your PM.

Yes, you may well be right about the traitor in their midst...wouldn't be the first time. Interestingly enough, check this link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/03/christiane-amanpour-osama-bin-laden-bill-maher_n_857026.html indicating that at least one journalist worth their salt was on the right trail almost three years ago. I know that the intel community can be pretty dense about such things at times, but eventually even they may have figured this out for themselves. Given the collateral evidence (no phones, garbage burning, etc) and add a "reliable source" in the mix, that might confirm OBL's actual presence (most of the time at least) in the compound, taken together you have the right ingredients to justify a raid.

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So killing should be answered with killing?

They kill and cheer in the streets then we kill and cheer in the streets, I was saddened the other night by the scenes of jubilation in America mainly because it looked just like down town Baghdad with different hair styles.

You do not defeat your enemy by becoming your enemy in fact you hand them victory.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dieseltaylor viewpost.gif

I almost imagine you did not read what I writ : ) Somalian pirates. Our civilised hands off approach has lead to a bigger problem growimg over the last decade.

I did read what you wrote and the Somali Pirate situation is a prime example of where might is not working. Large numbers of the world's navies are engaged in the region in an attempt to provide security which, as you listed, is not very successful.

The riches (booty?) that can be had by the pirates far outweigh any risks they might expose themselves to.

So shooting them is never going to be the solution unless you intend to kill them all.

What needs to happen is to take away the motivation to commit piracy and you can only do that by placing them in a situation where they have more to lose than gain from piracy. That involves giving them stability.

Killing is easy, pick up a gun and boom it's done.

Actually solving the problem is hard. quote.gif

Firstly the sanctity of life bit is such hogwash. If it were why have so many Iraquis died by the hand of the liberal West. There is the view that if you call it a war and kill tens of thousands its OK but if you kill an individual that somehow becomes a crime. Where is the logic in that?

I would much prefer it the other way around myself.

As for the pirates - as you did not propose a solution I can tell you mine : ) Fit all legit vessels with AIS. If you have not got it you are a target and with no boats you are unable to go to sea.

There may be some refinements needed but the basic idea is a mega-step forward. The exclusion of non-Somali fishing vessels is probably also a good idea once peace is restored. A tight screen blockade off the Somali coast in smaller vessels should not be beyond the power of the navies of the world. Introduced and relaxed at whim to keep the bad guys off balance once the initial AIS distribution has been enforced.

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Looks like my initial hunchs are becoming more solid. I have no doubt he was ratted out. And that some Pakistani group knew where he was.

As for Geronimo

The US Defence Department said no disrespect had been intended. It would not elaborate on the use of the name Geronimo, but said its code names were usually chosen at random.

Code names allow soldiers taking part in missions to communicate with each other without divulging vital information to eavesdroppers.

In his letter to Mr Obama - also posted on the Oklahoma tribe's website - Mr Houser said: "Right now Native American children all over this country are facing the reality of having one of their most revered figures being connected to a terrorist and murderer of thousands of innocent Americans.

"Think about how they feel at this point."

I really really do believe that there are some very stupid Americans in the DoD. I suppose they could have called him Mandela :)

Re: untouchables and garbage. Wrong religion.

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There are some very stupid Americans, but they're the ones feeling offended.

Geronimo wasn't the code for bin Laden, it was the code name for the whole mission. "Jackpot" was the code for bin Laden. And if it was like most US military operations the code words were chosen at random by a computer.

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Firstly the sanctity of life bit is such hogwash. If it were why have so many Iraquis died by the hand of the liberal West. There is the view that if you call it a war and kill tens of thousands its OK but if you kill an individual that somehow becomes a crime. Where is the logic in that?

There is no logic and I am not suggesting there is nor am I suggesting that one is a crime and the other isn't.

What I am suggesting is that any killing regardless of the reason is a bad thing. Sure maybe sometimes killing is unavoidable and justified, still doesn't make it good.

I would much prefer it the other way around myself.

I would prefer nil on either side.

As for the pirates - as you did not propose a solution I can tell you mine : ) Fit all legit vessels with AIS. If you have not got it you are a target and with no boats you are unable to go to sea.

There may be some refinements needed but the basic idea is a mega-step forward. The exclusion of non-Somali fishing vessels is probably also a good idea once peace is restored. A tight screen blockade off the Somali coast in smaller vessels should not be beyond the power of the navies of the world. Introduced and relaxed at whim to keep the bad guys off balance once the initial AIS distribution has been enforced.

What about the legitimate boats who can't afford an AIS? What about the criminals who CAN afford an AIS? Who will monitor the AIS? How will you detect the boat's that do not have AIS and if you do manage to detect them, which is not easy as they are very small and do not turn up on radar very well, what will you do about it?

My solution is to build the Somali economy and society to a level where there is no motivation to be a pirate, rather than declaring a free fire zone.

Rather than pour money into fixing the symptoms I believe the money is better spent on the cause.

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And if it was like most US military operations the code words were chosen at random by a computer.

See my other thread regarding this. Suffice to say that because a name is chosen by computer does not make it right or acceptable. And do you honestly believe that of the roughly million words in the English language that this was chosen by random choice?

Making allowances for unpronounceable words and obvious ineligibles would probably leave at least 50000 and more if you include place names. Which makes me doubt hugely that this was randomly picked from a dictionary. Now from a short short list put together by the military ..... and then picked by computer ..

That the long term chase for OBL has a similarity to the long campaign to cage Geronimo must surely be a coincidence of a freakish nature. In fact some people might actually believe that a computer did not strike lucky with a code name. However as the DoD says they are allocated by random computer pick then it must be sooo totally true.

Run program:

Gronimo

Geronimo

Geronimo

Gerima

Lilo

Adolf

Maceys

Run remove non-names: Remove Christian names: Remove Brand names: Print results.

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As someone else pointed out, "Geronimo" is what US paratroopers would sometimes yell when they jumped out of planes. So yeah, I can believe it was in the database.

And since the code name referred to the mission itself rather than bin Ladin personally there's nothing offensive about it, logically speaking.

Therefore it's a non-issue. Or rather, it's something some people are trying to make an issue out of where none really exists.

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You do realise that if the DoD said from the outset that it was the long used code for the operation and was chosen because of the similarity to the hunt for Geronimo they would have got marks for logic and truthfulness. I would have been OK with that.

If they had named the target as Geronimo [which I suspect is likely] and said on reflection it was perhaps not the wisest choice for the reasons raised they would have got marks for honesty.

What have we got - pure bloody lying or incompetence. And what is the most galling is that they REALLY believe anyone with an ounce of intelligence believes it is a random choice.

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BTW, I've been reading some reports that Geronimo wasn't even the name for the operation. The reports indicate the operation code name was "Neptune Spear", and that "Geronimo" was the code word for "mission successful".

That would explain the SEAL's famous transmission.

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Well, diesel, I think you may soon be doing a little soul-searching regarding the question of who does and does not possess an "ounce of intelligence".

"Geronimo" was the code word the Navy SEAL Team Six was to use to let their commander in chief know that the "Jackpot," a.k.a. Osama Bin Laden, was captured or dead.

The Navy SEAL who said it used it not once, not twice, but three times.

Link

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Somalia.

The AIS would be provided to ships and boats by the national governments presently failing in policing the area. ANd in the next 12 months AIS for sizes of boats will be available.

http://www.digital-seas.com/haeufig_verwendete_inhaltselemente/regions/baltic_sea_south.html

Pirates can of course buy their own kit however I expect that they each have a unique code and a database of what ship buys what set would reveal that some were suspect.

The converse, not having any AIS transmitting would identify you as suspicious and mean naval vessels could concentrate on looking for non-transmitting vessels. Now they would be as hard to find as previously but chasing properly ID vessels would give more time.

For merchant ships they would compare visual sightings with AIS to make sure they chimed, if you can see a vessel but no AIS then you know you need help. A quick call on the blower may then be effective to get some response.

Convoys help too and this would enable ships to form convoys far more easily.

As for resurrecting Somalia I am all in favour of that. Firstly lets recognise it is not an indivisible country and actually use the clans to make the self-administering areas. I understand Northern Somalia is much quieter and coherent but no country is willing to recognise it as independent. Seems silly to me.

If we favour one or other of the clan areas for good behaviour then that encourages the bahaviour of the rest.

Violence.

I am cowardly myself so dislike violence. However there are those who trade on humanities general desire for peace and self-preservation to do unpleasant acts such as killing people. Within a country hopefully the police and judicial system will put them out of the way.

Where the violence comes from an outside country we generally go to war and people get killed. I do not see that an attack from any outside group differs markedly from a proper war other than the difficulty of identifying the enemy.

I am not in favour of killing people as a first option, I would consider the cause of their grievance to consider its merits. Its possible solutions. And enter dialogue to see if an accommodation can be made. However that does not mean at the end of day that assinations etc are not the safest and most effective solution. BUT generally I doubt that killing is the correct solution.

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Geronimo" was the code word the Navy SEAL Team Six was to use to let their commander in chief know that the "Jackpot," a.k.a. Osama Bin Laden, was captured or dead. The Navy SEAL who said it used it not once, not twice, but three times.

There are so many elements to this story that still seem unreal. After nearly a decade of searching for the mastermind responsible for the murders of nearly 3,000 Americans, bin Laden was found hiding in plain sight in a million dollar safehouse in Pakistan with few guards around him.

It also seems unreal that America's Special Forces were able to get into the compound, despite the failure of one of their helicopters, take out the world's most wanted terrorists, take possession of his hard drives and other data, and get out unharmed before Pakistan's military could react to a foreign military operation going down in a suberb of their capital city.

Seems very honest of them. Cannot spell suburb and mis-locate the site. Quality journalism.

VA- Lets cut to the chase. They could have said immediately what the context was for Geronimo. But no they had to fanny around.

Which seems to me that the US yet again has a success but manages to drag defeat into victory. Let me explain. I now I am going to launch a mission which has several possible results. Before it is launched I prepare my stories to cover the eventualities, this includes what to do with the body AND whether photos actually make a blind bit of difference to conspiracists.

In fact my list of points to cover in the various eventualities is huge but then at the end I only need the one and that is the success story which surely is honed to cover everything.

I also arrange to have one point only that provides information and I make darn sure anyone who is thinking of doing unofficial leaking knows their butt is seriously seriously on the line.

SO how many story changes have we had since Sunday, liitle snippets, contradictions, eventual dragging out what could have been said at the beginning. It just seems so incompetent.

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Well, if we are talking about the job they have done getting correct information to the public then there can be no question that there have been some inexplicable failures. My only guess is that their desire to reap maximum political benefits has gotten out in front of their grasp of the facts. But to suggest that this has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory is hyperbole. The PR blunders will be sorted out; bin Laden is dead forever.

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Seems very honest of them. Cannot spell suburb and mis-locate the site. Quality journalism.

VA- Lets cut to the chase. They could have said immediately what the context was for Geronimo. But no they had to fanny around.

Which seems to me that the US yet again has a success but manages to drag defeat into victory. Let me explain. I now I am going to launch a mission which has several possible results. Before it is launched I prepare my stories to cover the eventualities, this includes what to do with the body AND whether photos actually make a blind bit of difference to conspiracists.

In fact my list of points to cover in the various eventualities is huge but then at the end I only need the one and that is the success story which surely is honed to cover everything.

I also arrange to have one point only that provides information and I make darn sure anyone who is thinking of doing unofficial leaking knows their butt is seriously seriously on the line.

SO how many story changes have we had since Sunday, liitle snippets, contradictions, eventual dragging out what could have been said at the beginning. It just seems so incompetent.

Just out of curiosity: had this operation been conducted by law enforcement agents (DEA, FBI) against a violent drug lord in the US would the shooting be deemed justified under the same circumstances (target unarmed but resisting) ?

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