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JerseyJohn

WWII Speculations Thread

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Here's another what-if: Germany delaying it's attack on Poland until May, 1940. Let's suppose Germany does not make the Molotov agreement with Russia until then, and when reaching the Bug River, proceeds to cross it and surprise the Russians by immediately breaking the agreement and crushes the unsuspecting Russians coming forward to claim eastern Poland. What defenses Russia had in 1941 may not have been in place in 1940 under these circumstances, and would be that much less prepared in any cases (same would be true with the Germans, but still be an advantage). Also, France and England might be even less inclined to fight as long as Germany continued east, instead of west. Any thoughts?

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Snowstorm I can just imagine the German civilain pop.response to that(not that it would really matter).If you get a chance to ever read the book:What Stalin knew.It talks about on May 17 1939 Proskurov sent a six page top secret report entitled''The Future Plans of Aggression by Fascist Germany''.Russia already had spies in the German Military Command structure.This report laid out in GREAT detail the plans for the attack on Poland,France and England.It is very possible that the Russians would have found out about Hitlers backstab on them and Who knows how Stalin would have reacted.Could have been a disaster for Germany.

If Hitler would have been able to pull off a sneak attack on Russsia that would put him at war with all three major powers.Its hard to say what the Western Allies would have done.Imho they would probabaly take FOREVER to decide and when they finally did it would probably just be some limited attacks on the West Wall.I cant imagine them taking the initative.

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The Russians had spies in the German military all along, and still couldn't get Stalin to believe them when they warned him of an impending invasion in summer 1941. I don't have much reason to believe that it would have been different in 1940. Nonetheless, I would be interested to see if anyone here can make a good case that it would be different. I'm all ears.

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OK, let's say that Stalin was there or wasn't, whether he believed it or not, one thing is we know Fascism and Communism are not exactly compatible, but neither is Democracy and Socialism....so...???

I mean how far do you want to extend this "what if" boundary. Were WW2 leaders capable of backstabbing each other? Did they say one thing and do something else? Is that the nature of humans? Come on a234, sheople can be led down any primrose path if the right manipulation is applied, desperate people do desperate things, just cultivate an atmosphere of imminent peril, sound familiar?

Like I said earlier, go straight through Poland and right after USSR and come as the "liberator", the vanquisher of evil communism. Some of those old White Russians will be there to greet you, Ukranians to assist you, not to mention the Baltic states and perhaps the Finns. The right incentive applied, is there any doubt that the sheople won't fall in line? Does history support my thesis?;)

Couldn't be done....you say.....we'll see....and SC Global will be our test bed.:D

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And what about the contribution of intelligence? Highly reliable stuff, even today, right? :P Is it intel or propaganda...."only your hairdresser knows for sure", "is it real or is it memorex"? Did they really do that stunt? Was it airbrushed or was it computer aided graphics, no..it was camoflauge.....what was that "out of the corner of my eye"?:eek:

Can you really believe anything?:rolleyes:

Do you want to believe in anything?:confused:

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SeaMonkey of course if Hitler played his cards right he may have been able to do what you said.Ive brought that up many times before(Hitler going into Russia as a''liberator'')and for sure if he had done that it would have had a HUGE effect on the war.But Hitler was nuts and there was no hope of that.If you put that option into any WW2 game and Russia does actually become Allied with Germany then there would be no point to the game.The options we discuss here are always fun but some of them(for good reason)are left out.

As far as manipulating people goes,absolutly but there is a breaking point.

I love your comments about intel(how true it is today).I would think that back in WW2 intel was easier to trust.Look what Ultra,Magic did for us(shortend the war by about two years).

As far as Stalin not believing his own spies,this for the most part was true early on but he did believe is spies when they told him Japan wasnt going to attack so he may or maynot have believed his spies if they told him about German attack through Poland.He didnt want believe most of what he was told when the Germans were preping for Barb.

Imho if you start to factor in ALL the what-ifs of WW2 then I cant see the Axis ever winning.This is such a tough subject to decide on.I could go on and on(as im sure most here could)about if this country had only done that etc but all things being equal and all the leaders of all the major powers being able to realise whats at stake then I cant see how the Axis(as they were set-up during WW2)could ever win.

SeaMonkey you mention that you are in power not the leaders of the time so that initself changes everthing.For sure your ideas would make a VERY intersting game.I hope it happens.

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The general trend of what is being said:

1) Germany bypasses Poland

2) Germany goes to war with Russia

3) Germany sells the anti-Commie reason for the war

4) Germany defeats the Russians

5) Germany joins the Western community as a friend

This way, all the Bunta-lovers on this website can goosestep around in their uniforms.

You're all trying to take Evil & make it Good. Changing Hitler into something else in jest. It's like saying, if the Devil would just get saved, then the Devil could continue to run this world then wouldn't have to goto the Lake of Fire because Jesus would forgive.

Bottom line: Hitler, Himmler, Goering, and the rest of those unrepentant killers are going to have their day in court at the White Throne Seat. The prosecuter is going to present the case, the facts, and the Judge will cast down final eternal judgment.

Screw the Nazis, screw the Germans.

"What were you thinking? You interuppted our lives for this? You stupid ignorant facist pigs. You have horses. Haven't you heard of Ford & General F. Motors" --- Daniel Webster, Band of Brothers.

"You fat fricking Nazi Pig. Don't tell you can't smell the ovens. You're not a Nazi? Are you a human being?" --- Daniel Webster, Band of Brothers.

"All this time in Germany, and I've never met a Nazi" --- Band of Brothers taking over Nazi house.

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Actually JJR, I think most people here are just hypothesizing what might have happened if Hitler was NOT in charge in the early years, that's all.

;)

Yes, I know. But why is it always Germany? Why don't people defend & dream about Japan?

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Because Germany had it all:

fancy animal names for their tanks

high tech weaponry, beautifuly desigened

an the great, nordic drama with a Goetterdaemmerung at the end of it all.

The great tragedy of a people which were seduced by pure evil, which came disguised as an angel from heaven.

Wagner, Nibelungen, ancient Rome, there is much of it in this conflict.

And last but not least:

American and German are not so very different people, you feel closer to a cousin than to a complete stranger.

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Because Germany had it all:

fancy animal names for their tanks

high tech weaponry, beautifuly desigened

an the great, nordic drama with a Goetterdaemmerung at the end of it all.

The great tragedy of a people which were seduced by pure evil, which came disguised as an angel from heaven.

Wagner, Nibelungen, ancient Rome, there is much of it in this conflict.

And last but not least:

American and German are not so very different people, you feel closer to a cousin than to a complete stranger.

True. Our family had a relative we knew about who fought for the Buntas in WW#1. You spreaken zee englisch or just written? Is yes, let me know if you visit DisneyWorld, Vegas, or wherever....you're welcome to hang out with the Legend & my Entourage.

We're all cousins on the big Adam & Eve tree of life. But who is my brother?

Did you know that the most visited House in the USA is the White House. The 2nd most visited is Graceland....and will soon be #1.

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Ok, how about another what-if:

Let's assume that the German air force decides to continue (in late summer-fall of 1940) their bombing of the British air bases instead of changing tactics by bombing the English cities as they did. This, from what I understand, allowed the British to rebuild their air bases and their air force while Germany bombed the cities. It is thought if the Germans had continued their attacks primarily against the British air force just a little longer they may have established German air superiority and would have the air cover needed for Operation Sea Lion. If Germany (let's assume Hitler was removed or had a change of strategy) had decided not to give Russia much priority at least until 1942 (or so Stalin thought), and concentrated on removing England from the war theater and creating an iron grip on western Europe instead, would, with the greater concentration of resources in France instead of increasingly in Poland as well as the establishment of air superiority over England, have given the Germans success in subduing England and put them in better position to perhaps deal with Russia at a later date?

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Good one Rambo! I suspect that if he had died, Germany would have still gone to war, but probably much later as they planned to do before Hitler rushed things. Japan on the other hand was much more likely to have gone to war when they did since they were pressured by the boycotts and events in China and elsewhere.

Who knows? We might have fought Japan first, and just as we were wrapping that one up had to turn around and deal with Germany. OR, with Japan going first and probably no pact with a Hitlerless Germany, would the US have gotten into the European war until much later, ala the First World War?

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BrotherRambo, If Hitler had been killed in WWI the ugly guy in the German victory parade through Warsaw would have become leader of Germany. You know, the one who always bitched about Hitler, Himmler and Heydrich being too nice for their own good. :eek:

Actually, I don't think the Nazis would have amounted to anything without Hitler. They were a hand full of windbags when he joined as an army spy and only emerged as a solid entity through his personal fanatacism. Before this Hitler had joined a communist organization and left a little later to be placed in the National Socialists. I think he'd have wound up leading the communists if circumstances had been a little different, though his unbridled anti-semitism would have surely worked against him if were set among socialists, but whose to say, he had the kind of sociopathic personality that might well have changed the entire nature of the group he was in, come up with the brownshirts under a different name and, ultimately, the Nazi party with a different label.

But if he'd been killed during WWI --? I think the left wing German movements would have been much more powerful throughout the 1920s. By 1930 they'd have had the majority vote in the Weimar Republic causing Britain and France to fear a Bolshevik takeover in Germany. They'd have backed former army chief Schleicher, or someone like him, forcing a right wing army controled regime throwing out the Versailles 100,000 man troop limit with the blessings of both the British and the French. The Rhineland, without a garrison to keep it under Berlin's control, would have attempted to become a seperate socialist state and France would have invited the German government to send its army into the territory, declaring martial law. By 1932 a government well to the right led by Schleicher, Hindenburg and von Papen, backed by industrialists and bankers, would have taken firm control after having suspended free elections. They'd next invite the Crown Prince to return and establish a constitutional monarchy modelled after that of Britain. By 1936 or 37 Austria would have voted to join Germany (the Austrians were the ones pushing for unification till the Nazis took over) and the next few years would have seen Germany claiming the parts of Poland and Czechoslovakia with primarily German populations, ending with Poland yeilding to Anglo-French pressure to cede the corridor and Danzig to the Reich, or fight the threatened border war over those territories. Germany would also have received Memel from Lithuania, with the British and French pressuring that country to merge with Poland, giving both access to the Baltic, and the Britsh-French-German alliance a comfortable buffer zone against Stalinist Russia.

The decade would have ended with Germany becoming the European watchdog against socialist expansion into central and eastern Europe, with Britain returning Germany's pre-war African colonies.

No World War II, either in Europe or the Pacific -- Japan, without its Nazi allies, wouldn't move on the French and Dutch colonies and would, instead of military expansion (beyond Manchuria) have been forced to find more peaceful means of dealing with its lacks of resources. My guess would be increased trade with the United States for raw materials, later to include the newly independent protectorate of The Phillipines; Holland for oil and rubber in the East Indies; and with France for the natural resources of Indochina.

A very strong constitutional monarchy in the new German Reich. France saved from its socialist element and able, along with Britain and Germany, to maintain the three European global empires through to the late 20th and early 21st centuries. An industrial powerful Japanese Empire developing Manchuria, holding much of the Chinese coastline and several large inland cities, ultimately pressured by the US, Briatain, France, Germany and Holland to end its war of aggression in China.

Communism contained in the Soviet Union, ultimately changing to a milder variety after the death of Joseph Stalin.

SnowStorm, The accepted wisdom used to be the RAF fighter command would have been destroyed over Southern England if the Luftwaffe hadn't shifted to attacking London. Some opinions on this have changed over the years upon re-examining the basic structure of British airfields, with each fighter parked in its own protected area to prevent the multiple plane destruction that happened later at Pearl Harbor and later on the continent, actual figures of pilot losses -- the Luftwaffe couldn't recover many of their downed airmen even before they shifted farther from the coast, aircraft build rates -- Goering reduced the number of aircraft being manufactured even while his losses were growing larger; meanwhile British aircraft building was being increased to replace losses. Etc & etc

I think, at one point, the Germans could successfully have taken parts of Southern England, but not by the impossible Sea Lion plans. In my view the barges being converted to landing craft wouldn't have worked, most of them weren't even seaworthy and would have been swamped with the loss of most of the troops onboard. As they reached the British coast the troops inside would have been decimated by British infantry defending the high ground and the remaining assault troops, sea sick and heavily reduced in numbers would probably have had a hard time just finding cover and defending where they'd been offloaded without having to try and force their way through barbed wire and defenders without benefit of the naval gunfire support the Allies always had in their own large landings.

I think the only realistic chance would have come if the Luftwaffe regrouped its paratroopers and glider troops and performed a very intense bombing of one particular port city near to the French coast; probably Dover. When they had total air superiority over the chosen city there would be a paratroop drop followed by reinforcing glider troops with the twin objectives of taking the local air strips and harbor. As soon as the airfield was taken more troops would be landed conventionally and, with the harbor taken, still more troops and supplies brought over by ship -- not those hopeless converted barges (they were used later, in the Crimea, under more favorable conditions than the English Channel; but I don't think they'd have been any good crossing from Britain to France).

Once established the bridgehead could be expanded inland, fighter squadrons could be relocated to the captured city, giving the advancing troops better air cover, and the invasion could fan out both along the coast, taking more ports, and inland, toward London. This whole stage would probably have needed to be completed by mid-September 1940; after that the weather would have worked heavily in favor of the British.

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There's a good show on the Military Channel called 'Fatal Attraction Adolf Hitler', worth an hour of your time.

I don't think Germany could have taken England. The logistics are just too much. Plus the Yanks would have accelerated a plan to save the Island......troops, supplies, whatever. Germany would have needed some serious technology (bombers, rockets) in order to completely level some cities.

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It's actually a two hour documentary from the early seventies; excellent!

Unfortunately it hasn't been put in DVD form.

Regarding Germany invading Britain, I think it depends almost entirely on when it was staged. If the Germans had gotten a foothold, as I described above, taking one of the key channel ports by paratroop and glider troops in July of 1940, before the British were able to recover from Dunkirk, they'd have been able to grab harbor facilities and airports after which they'd have built up quickly and begun expanding along the coast and inland, again, as I discussed earlier.

Once in Britain I think they could have lived off the land. I can't see England conducting a Soviet or Chinese type scorched earth policy.

It probably wouldn't have been necessary to take London. Somewhere along the line Winston Churchill would have been removed from office and a moderate British government would have come to terms with Germany. Hitler never wanted the British to be defeated, he wanted them to maintain the British Empire. He several times told his aides that Germany had more need to fear a Yellow Empire (Japanese) than a Red (British) Colonial Empire.

Naturally the chances for Germany would have gone down as Autumn set in, and become impossible over the winter, then in the Spring of 41 there would probably have been no chance at all for the initial stage succeeding.

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Difficult to answer.

Hitler would have probably made some fatal mistakes after a succesful first landing attempt.

On the other hand the british would have had one big advantage: german supply would have been always low because of the channel and the Royal Navy.

And i believe the Britons would have charged the intruders, even with spoons and forks, if nescessary.

And let us not forget: Hitler wanted peace with the English, because he hated the Jews and the Bolsheviks, so he would have never fought to the death on the English Isle, as he had other plans more important.

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If the Germans had been smart and destroyed the B.E.F.when they had the chance England may have sued for peace.Without those 300.000 plus troops getting back Britain would have been prettywell defenseless.Then just drop Paras on an airfield(like in Crete) and start flying in troops.The Royal Navy couldnt do anthing about it.Ultra wouldnt have been really any help yet as it was just barely starting to have any effect.Other than that somewhat risky move Hitler really didnt have much of a chance to take England.

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JerseyJohn- XWormwood- JJR-Arado,

After considering what all of you said, I think the German airforce would have had a chance to gain air superiority, but it would have been a very close call, and having done that, they would have had a very narrow window of opportunity to succeed in invading England, not to conquer it completely, but to subdue it enough to force it to come to terms favorable to Germany before winter set in. Obviously, their chances would have been better with a more military savvy leader than Hitler, but perhaps possible if a few breaks went their way. I have a difficult time believing the U.S. would have had time to mount a significant rescue of Britain in such a short time with all the logistics involved under those circumstances. Three to four months for logistics? I'm not an expert on logistics, but I doubt it.

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Another question arises: In June 1941, after the fall of France, before Barby, what was the America stance, military output, & opporunity to help England?

When was Operation Torch, in early 1942? You gotta figure the USA would have brought the Pacific Fleet & all resources to England if invaded in 1941. But because lack of naval support the Germans had no chance.

Even with the bombing of London & even complete destruction, England would not have surrendered. They had a Navy.....don't think the Allies ever had to worry about it.

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I keep reading comments about how the United States wouldn't have stood for Britain being invaded. Where do people get that from?

The American people would not have tolerated any part of North or South America being invaded. Period!

If FDR had tried to force a war against either Germany or Japan, regardless of circumstances, and the United States hadn't itself been attacked, he would have been impeached immediately.

Same case with Truman in 1945; all this nonsense about how he should have gone after the USSR -- guess that means our staunch ally at the time, the country we'd been churning out propaganda films for four years, right, we could have suddenly shifted gears and attacked them because after all, we didn't have Germany to fight anymore? Sure, right, I doubt that could have happened even if we'd been run by the kind of dictatorship we'd just defeated. And we weren't.

Getting back to historical 1941. The U. S. was well into its naval and air rearmament program. The two new classes of fast batttleships with 9x16 inch main guns was starting to either come off the slipways or go into production along with the larger fleet aircraft carriers and all the other vessels that would dwarf everything Japan build during the previous twenty years. The army and Marine Corps were both small; most of the small arms and artillery were going to Britain as Lend-Lease.

Torch took place during early 1942, same as Guadalcanal, and the two stretched the U. S. naval resources so thin that the U-boats had their greatest run of merchant vessel sinking. The UK convoys were left lightly protected because everything was tied up with the landings.

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Continued from above post

If the Germans had been smart and destroyed the B.E.F.when they had the chance England may have sued for peace.Without those 300.000 plus troops getting back Britain would have been prettywell defenseless.Then just drop Paras on an airfield(like in Crete) and start flying in troops.The Royal Navy couldnt do anthing about it.Ultra wouldnt have been really any help yet as it was just barely starting to have any effect.Other than that somewhat risky move Hitler really didnt have much of a chance to take England.

Absolutely. I've never understood why Hitler didn't cut the BEF and French remnants off from the coast. I read somewhere that he felt if he didn't the Brits would see that he'd allowed them to evacuate most of their army, minus its heavy equipment, and would see it as a face saving courtesy. That might be true, but if it is it was his worst delusion of the war.

I see very little historical reference to the use of paratroops and glider infantry to gain a foothole in southern England. No idea why. I can't believe there were too few of them to just grab a port and airstrip and from there the Luftwaffe could have controlled that narrow lane (both against the RAF and Royal Navy) long enough to bring enough troops and supplies over by air to take the remainer of the channel coast. Once that was done armor could have been brought across by freighters. It seems absurd to me that the Brits, despite anything Churchill might have said, would have held back a full scale invasion. Once ashore I think the German armies in Britain would have had a much easier time than they had against the French (in stage II, after Dunkirk, when the French were reorganized and fought well but had no reserves).

Negotiated peace, Germany occupies whatever it took to that point and Britain continueing from the Thames north with a similar arrangement to Vichy France. This would have satisfied Hitler as it would have left Britain's Empire in tact, at least for the moment. I'm sure the colonies would have forced independence through the 1940s, but they wouldn't have been taken by the Japanese, which was one of Hitler's greatest fears -- some alliance! :D

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Torch took place during early 1942

Torch didn't occur until November 42, which was still a lot earlier then a lot of the upper echelon of the Army was comfortable with. Rick Atkinson's excellent book "An Army at Dawn" paints a pretty grim picture of the readiness of the U.S. Army to tackle the Wehrmacht.

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