Georgia on my Mind

[alan15rus]

For those who know Russian:

МОСКВА, 10 сен — РИА Новости. Грузия в ближайшие дни готовит повторные вооруженные акции против населения Южной Осетии и Абхазии, говорится в заявлении Межпартийного совещания по внешней политике, которое в среду подписали представители все парламентских партий.

По итогам обсуждения ситуации на Кавказе с участием главы Минобороны РФ Анатолия Сердюкова парламентарии отмечают, что «очередной виток обострения может быть спровоцирован (Тбилиси) в увязке с проведением в Грузии выездного заседания Совета НАТО 14-15 сентября».

...bad, really bad...

[Bigduke6]

Steve,

Fair comment, but me, I am not convinced the Chechnya war is over. Yes the Russians and their local hires have dominated the place, but when you check the info it turns out there's a definate insurgency there, pro-Russia police are getting hit just about every week and Russian troops about every month. The more I learn about the conflict, the more it seems to me like the Chechens will never quit.

Red Rage,

I affirm that 100 per cent. Saakashvili is political toast in his own country, his bonehead play has united the opposition and made it possible for them to call 100s of thousands into the streets if he decides to fudge the next elections even more. It used to be it was hard to find a Georgian on the street willing to talk against Saakashvili, these days it's hard to find people willing to support him.

Alan,

As it happens, I read Russian just fine. I suggest you consider the source. Here is the Wikipedia blurb on RIA Novosti:

The Russian Information Agency Novosti was created in September 1991 on the basis of IAN and the Russian Information Agency. By a decree of the Russian president dated August 22, 1991, RIA Novosti was placed within the competence of the Press and Information Ministry. RIA Novosti had about 80 bureaus and news offices abroad, over 1,500 subscribers in CIS countries and about a hundred in non-CIS countries. In 1993, by a decree of the Russian president of September 15, 1993 “On the Russian Information Agency Novosti”, RIA Novosti became a state news-analytical agency.

Bolding is mine. My point is, I think it might be worth wondering whether the report you cited was a straight news report, or a politically-motivated report approved by the Russian government.

Further, the allegation - Georgia is preparing further attacks - is not from an independant agency, but from an inter-party statement released, as nearly as I can tell, via the Duma. The expert opinion alleging the Georgians are preparing another attack is, apparently, one Anatoliy Serdiukov, Russian Defence Minister.

Which is not to say Serdiukov does not have access to intelligence making clear Georgia is planning another attack. Of course, if he does, one must wonder why that same intelligence system failed to allow the Russian government to anticipate and by diplomatic means halt the Georgian attack into South Ossetia in early August?

I mean, are we to believe the same Russian army intelligence which missed preparations for a Georgian offensive last month, and suddenly has become so competent it can allow Serdiukov to predict before the Duma a subsequent attack by a substantially-weakened Georgian army?

Finally, Russian President Medvedev yesterday in phone conversations with French President Sarkozy promised Russia would shut down its checkpoints in Georgia and allow EU observers to replace them, this to take place in a month.

Leaving aside the question of whether or not this particular Russian promise will in fact be kept, we are still left to ponder why Medvedev promised to pull Russian troops out of Georgia, and then less than 24 hours later his Minister of Defence says Georgia is planing to attack for a second time.

So all in all, I would not call that a scary report. Rather, and at a guess, I would call it an example of rather primitive and more than a little incompetent Russian state propaganda.

[alan15rus]

I HOPE it's propaganda. We'll find out in 2 weeks.

[MikeyD]

I've been on other chat sites where it seems KGB-equivalent 'disinformation' guys have suddenly started trolling. I spotted one with a tag something like "BlueStateMidwesterner" -yeh, right. 'Prime minister' (cough cough) Putin is no fool when it comes to modern technology. They've run several well documented spying, hacking, and virus operations over the internet in the past against their perceived enemies.

[Battlefront.com]

BigDuke6,

I was specifically referring to how Russia's military forces handled themselves against Georgia compared to the first incursion into Chechnya. In fact, I think one can fairly compare the Georgian attack to the Russian invasion of Chechnya... incompetent and reckless.

As for Russian media releases... Putin has been working very, very hard to eliminate free press, which was only just starting to take form. Assassinations of journalists, false legal charges, etc. are all very well documented. Some opposition is allowed simply to make it appear that there is still a free press, but by Western standards it is anything but. Considering I have a low opinion of the US mass media's ability to find the truth when it is sitting right in front of their face, and to not regurgitate government disinformation (like the infamous Cheney-NYT scandal back before the Iraq war started), it's hard to give the current Russian press much credit for objectivity. By comparison the US media is "fair and balanced"

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

The day after Russia stopped its advance I remember some US based experts saying that Saakashvili would soon be out of office. Once Georgians realized how utterly foolish, and incompetent, the offensive was... they would hold him responsible and kick him out. If he is kicked out, then it is apparent that there is at least some amount of democracy in Georgia. If he manages to stay in power, like Putin, then the opposite will be shown.

In any case, I am waiting for independent verification of the various charges that both Georgia and Russia have accused each other of. Things like ethnic cleansing by both sides, mass civilian casualties, mass Georgian soldier deaths, etc. have not been verified in any meaningful way so far as far as I can tell. After all, if I believed the official statements from very partisan governments then I would have been shocked to find out that there were no WMD in Iraq and that Al Qaeda didn't have a base of operations in there prior to the invasion.

Steve

[Bigduke6]

Well that guy Koikoty was talking several thousand ethnic Ossetians killed by Georgians in the first couple of days of the war in ethnic cleansing, and when the Human Rights Watch got in and started counting, it turned out there had been about 150 - 200 deaths in Tskhinvali during the war, most attributable to artillery fire.

The most entertaining bit of course is the Russian major media reported the "1,000s killed in Georgian ethnic cleansing" pretty much 24/7, and they have yet to report what the HRW had to say of the numbers, if only to to reject them as Capitalist inventions. So as far as the Russian general public is concerned, the Georgians really did murder all those Ossetians.

Which is not to say some murders didn't take place. But from what I can tell, the Georgians killed a couple of hundred Ossetians in sloppy artillery barrages, and the Ossetians killed a similar number of Georgians kicking them out of villages or stealing their property. Nasty, but not the same as Rwanda or Kossovo, no matter what spin Mr. Putin put on it.

The great Achilles Heel of the Russian government appears to be, they seem honestly to think that the rest of the world takes the statements of Vladimir Putin at face value just like it is taken in the Russian government.

There are a few media groups and journalists in Russia still trying to get the truth out, and a few of them are so brave as individuals they make an entire US SEAL team look like a bunch of quivering cowards by comparison. I'm not kidding, who takes on the Russian state with nothing more than a computer or a camera, over the principle of the truth? It is amazing to me that there are still local reporters in places like Chechnya that get up and report on corruption and murder and official lies, and keep on doing it pretty much until they or one or more of their relatives gets killed or maimed.

But they get no medals, no air support, no combat pay - and every month there are less and less of them.

That's the saving grace of the western media really. It's continentally stupid sometimes, but, it's so big you can't kill it, andt's competative enough so that even if there is a really big lie out there, sooner or later some part of the media points it out. Groupthink without supporting evidence can't last forever in an environment like that.

On Saakashvili, I think the Georgians already realize full well what a dope he was. They are not exactly thrilled with their army either - the soldiers get paid regularly and better than most workers, but when the Russians came Georgia's expensive (by Georgian standards) did little but set speed records back to Tbilisi. I personally can't see how he can survive the next election - if he tries to fudge it he'll bring the nation into the streets, and if he runs it honestly he is going to get punted out on his ear.

Saakashvili, being the spin doctor he is, will no doubt threaten some kind of military coup until the West buys him off so he can become a tenured professor at Columbia or Stanford somewhere. But in any case the bottom line is that he runs the country not by military force but at the behest of his countrymen - and my read is they are really irate with him.

[alan15rus]

Well that guy Koikoty was talking several thousand ethnic Ossetians killed by Georgians in the first couple of days of the war in ethnic cleansing, and when the Human Rights Watch got in and started counting, it turned out there had been about 150 - 200 deaths in Tskhinvali during the war, most attributable to artillery fire.

The most entertaining bit of course is the Russian major media reported the "1,000s killed in Georgian ethnic cleansing" pretty much 24/7, and they have yet to report what the HRW had to say of the numbers, if only to to reject them as Capitalist inventions. So as far as the Russian general public is concerned, the Georgians really did murder all those Ossetians.

http://osetinfo.ru/victims

http://osetinfo.ru/newlist

it's hard to count now because some people buried their relatives in their own gardens or somewhere else.

I spoke to people who saw georgians killing women and children. In one of the Ossetian villages georgians burnt church with people inside(Ossetians thought that those "warriors" won't shoot at church... Yes georgians DID murder innocent people(and i'm not talking about artillery barrage).

You talking about the Human Rights Watch so show us official documents from them. But why should we listen to some people who weren't there at the time of war?

[alan15rus]

The great Achilles Heel of the Russian government appears to be, they seem honestly to think that the rest of the world takes the statements of Vladimir Putin at face value just like it is taken in the Russian government.

You don't want to listen to Putin? But why don't listen to me-the man who saw it with his own eyes? And there is one more thing: even if whole world will scream that Putin or Medvedev are liars what will change?

and few words about media these days

compare these articles:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/09/11/sossetia.russia.ap/index.html

http://news.mail.ru/politics/2011386/

funny, isn't it?

...it seems like the whole world gone crazy... you can't be sure what is the truth... Is there any truth at all??

[Mike Churchmoor]

Yo, alan15rus!

In your profile you're saying that you're a true hc CM:SF player, 24/7/365 and all.

For a change, why wouldn't you contribute something to the topics related to the game it self?

You seem like you know your stuff...

[alan15rus]

Yo, alan15rus!

In your profile you're saying that you're a true hc CM:SF player, 24/7/365 and all.

For a change, why wouldn't you contribute something to the topics related to the game it self?

You seem like you know your stuff...

It's not my fault that people want to talk about politics but not about the game itself.

I WANTED to talk about CM related things but it turned out to be a discussion about politics(though I'm not interested in politics so much)...

I've even said that i would like to help someone with the scenario on the war.

[Prince of Eckmühl]

If Russia (Putin) has a right to invade and "reincorporate" every area of Europe that contains ethnic Russians, then the Germans (Hitler) had every right to invade much of European Russia. Don't be misled. The same logic is in play here, and it's going to tear Europe apart. And don't think that it'll stop when the Ukraine and the Baltic States are overrun, either. Tens of millions of children were fathered by the Red Army as it raped its way across Eastern Europe, and they can all be issued "passports" as well.

PoE

[TempV]

Do you have proofs for that?! No, so watch your words better. Red Army liberated Eastern Europe from fascists, in the case if you didn't know. Or maybe you forgot how many lives Russians gave for that. Much more than your beloved Brits and Americans did altogether.

We don't want to invade in Europe because we know price of freedom better than any european nation. Of course, after S. Hussein hanged, Pentagon needs new "great Enemy". So Mr Putin perfectly fits the role of new Sauron in the eyes of "Free West". Sometimes people write such a nonsense...

[Roter Stern]

If Russia (Putin) has a right to invade and "reincorporate" every area of Europe that contains ethnic Russians, then the Germans (Hitler) had every right to invade much of European Russia. Don't be misled. The same logic is in play here, and it's going to tear Europe apart. And don't think that it'll stop when the Ukraine and the Baltic States are overrun, either. Tens of millions of children were fathered by the Red Army as it raped its way across Eastern Europe, and they can all be issued "passports" as well.

PoE

I don't think that anyone who has this as their signature - "I humbly kneel in remembrance of the power and the glory that was the rule of Napoleon!" - has a right to criticize countries with an aggressive foreign policy.

I'm not even going to point out the irony of that it was the war against Russia that finally put an end to Napoleon's several decade long campaign of slaughter.

[Roter Stern]

True, however there are some ways to do this that are more "right" than "wrong. For example, I doubt you would agree that if a man wants out of a marriage that he has the right to cheat on his wife? Or if a woman wants out she has the right to put a shotgun to his testicles and pull the trigger? Or one beats up the children as a way of getting even with the other? I hope not

Steve

I think this is a much better analogy to what happened in Georgia, following the rather bizarre 'spousal divorce' theme:

Your spouse has been abusing one of your two children for several years, which eventually lead to a divorce - unfortunately due to a loophole in the judicial system the abusive spouse got to keep one of the children. Then several years later you catch your ex-spouse beating the living **** out of that other child … now put yourself in those shoes - would you not turn that person into a bloody mess of flesh and teeth, and then attemp to get the child away from the abusive parent, no matter what the repercussions to you might be? …I know I would.

[The_Red_Rage]

If Russia (Putin) has a right to invade The same logic is in play here, and it's going to tear Europe apart. PoE

Europe was torn apart when Kosovo was taken from Serbs... S.Ossetia and Abkhazia have a land claim many times more valid than Albanians ever had. More correctly to say that Albanians have no valid land claim in Kosovo at all - they were muslim immigrants who managed to reproduce alot faster than the Serb population (by the same logic, Mexicans in California have every right to rebel).

Invade Blatic states.... lol. The only thing that is going to get invaded in the Baltics, is their overactive imagination.

[Bigduke6]

http://osetinfo.ru/victims

http://osetinfo.ru/newlist

it's hard to count now because some people buried their relatives in their own gardens or somewhere else.

I spoke to people who saw georgians killing women and children. In one of the Ossetian villages georgians burnt church with people inside(Ossetians thought that those "warriors" won't shoot at church... Yes georgians DID murder innocent people(and i'm not talking about artillery barrage).

You talking about the Human Rights Watch so show us official documents from them. But why should we listen to some people who weren't there at the time of war?

Alan,

If you are interested in what Human Rights Watch has to say, look them up yourself. I think trying to find "official documents" to impress you would be a waste of time, because we both know there is no such thing as a conclusive document on the facts of this issue.

If you check out HRW I think you will find it difficult to argue HRW is a less reliable source of information of civilian war deaths, than for instance Eduard Koikoty or Misha Saakashvili. But the judgement of course is up to you.

I for one think HRW is a solid means of judging people killed in a conflict because:

- They have no political agenda, their job is just to count

- They have gone into war zones and counted before, for decades

- They have the resources to do the legwork, which as I understand it is checking morgue, police, and social support data against stuff on the ground. This includes interviewing people and hearing whether or not their relatives appear to be dead, refugees, or whatever.

From what I have been able to gather, there were killings of civilians on both sides but it appears the Ossetian militia was more vicious. How much more is hard to tell. But in any case the killings on either side seem to have been in the dozens.

Here is a write-up on HRW's initial findings.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/13/georgia?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront

Koikoty was talking about thousands, and Putin/Medvedev and Russian state media have repeated the fable with very little evidence beyond "my babushka told your babushka".

That's very nice for the Russian TV audience of course, but as a general thing one should try and separate the facts from the polemics.

As to listening to people who were "there at the time of the war", from what you write, neither were you.

[Prince of Eckmühl]

Do you have proofs for that?!

Actually, there's a mountain of it. Here's a good read:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2002/may/01/news.features11

And the woman who raised me from age 6 to 13 was a primary source. :|

PoE

[Prince of Eckmühl]

I don't think that anyone who has this as their signature - "I humbly kneel in remembrance of the power and the glory that was the rule of Napoleon!" - has a right to criticize countries with an aggressive foreign policy.

I'm not even going to point out the irony of that it was the war against Russia that finally put an end to Napoleon's several decade long campaign of slaughter.

I ventured across this thread looking for information on the pre-order for the Marines module. I normally post in the Les Grognards forum. The quote goes with my handle, sort of a role-playing thing. And please don't insult our readers intelligence by comparing Napoleon to Putin, a guy who was an integral part of the greatest criminal enterprise in history, one of Stalin's heirs.

PoE

[TempV]

The question was about 10 milllions you've mentioned. Do you have proofs for this figure? No, you don't. And I can easily give you another figure - 27 mln of my people killed by the Nazies you are so fond of. There is no family in our country which didn't suffered in the war. So I will not give a s**t about such "researches".

[The_Red_Rage]

"And please don't insult our readers intelligence by comparing Napoleon to Putin, a guy who was an integral part of the greatest criminal enterprise in history, one of Stalin's heirs."

....Comparing Putin to a guy who was directly responsible for deaths of millions in not-as-densely-populated 19th century Europe?

"One of Stalin's heirs" LOL. Simple-minded statements like yours insult my intellegence.

[Meach]

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!!! C'mon guys, more insults please and don't forget the loser get's herring-bashed. Frogs vs Ivan is very entertaining for the bystander.

GET IT ON!

[panzermartin]

I have full respect for the Red Army, so has my father who lived under the 41-44 occupation. Every one has its own point of view on the subject but given the atrocities and the ethnic cleansing against the "subhuman" russian population, everything else pales in comparison. At least the russians didnt erase whole cities from the map (Dresden etc), while most would probably agree that they had every right on earth to do so.

[alan15rus]

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!!! C'mon guys, more insults please and don't forget the loser get's herring-bashed. Frogs vs Ivan is very entertaining for the bystander.

GET IT ON!

agree :D

[Lethaface]

Well, I think there is no comparing between 2nd World War and this conflict. In WWII most sides used (sort of) WMD against civilians. Germany's scorched earth practices in Russia, Allied carpet fire bombing against Dresden (creating first known fire storms) & of course nukes on Japan, Stalin & Red Army violence against their own people and anyone who has opposed them in the war.

The WWII became a war in its 'truest' form; it was the war between nations a whole. Government VS Government, Army VS Army, People VS People. "The end justified the means". More explicitly; "The end of the war justified ALL and ANY means".

And to be honest, I doubt that many East Europeans where so happy being 'freed' from Fascism, only to be replaced by Dictatorial Communism.

Its like trading one bad thing for another bad thing, may the latter be perhaps a little less worse.

----

About the Georgia conflict, I'm actually quite sure S. Ossetia wasn't a real issue for either Russia, Saakash or U.S.. No offense to any Osset (Alan particularly), but the region simply doesn't hold any real value. A few mountains and sheep.

However I think Georgia was trying to pull of something here. Perhaps Saakashvilli is stupid, but come'on, not THAT stupid. He must have known there would be a response from Russia. He did know that his army didn't hold any single chance against Russia. Even had he defeated the 58th, I'm sure Russia would have brought up more soldiers. Its like a K1 fight of Harry Potter VS Sem Schildt (Multiple time K1 winner). If Harry Potter think he could have won anything militarily, I need some of that **** he smokes

Perhaps it was a test for Russia. I don't think he would believe USA would start WWIII about S. Ossetia (mountains & sheep).

However I wouldn't be surprised if Russia hold some of the strings behind this (If that would be the case, only FSB and sort alike would know), to make sure Georgia doens't join Navo and to set an example for the rest of the caucasus (Dont fok with us).

I also wouldn't be surprised if this was a sneaky way of USA to put advanced weaponry inside Georgia aimed against Russia. Something like; here is a billion $ for you on an offshore bank account. You will wage war against russia and be defeated, we supply your country with many $, which you use to buy weapons from us (which will let Carlyle and Haliburton cash in major, sounds familiar?), and we need to have a small (covert) military base somewhere so we can install a few *things* there. Perhaps a little "anti-missile shield" to protect us from "Iran missiles".

What really did happen though, is :confused: