Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Boeman

Russian Tanks Invade Georgia

Recommended Posts

So it seems that Russia arranged to have its vaunted military granted the role of 'peace keeper' in the two breakaway enclaves. They use this role to issue Russian passports to anyone who will take them so that they may claim that there are Russian citizens in danger. They also provide weapons which the rebels use to fire on targets outside of the enclave in Georgia. Russia builds up forces in the area while stoking the fires of rebellion then when Georgia has had enough and decides to assert control over territory that is still technically part of Georgia Russia cries foul, claims genocide, rushes in forces that just happen to be camped on the border and proceeds to not only liberate the disputed territories, but to continue on into Georgia proper to 'punish' the Georgians for having the nerve to attempt to defend themselves from attacks undertaken from their own soil.

Yep, sounds like the good old days are here again. Welcome to Cold War 2.0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well...not being a military analyst closely working with the Putin administration...I can only guess, same as everyone else.

It seems pretty obvious though - Russian funded South Ossetians seperatists provoked Georgia's military response at a time when Russia correctly estimated the US would not be able to offer much support.

Seems to be 'expansionist', or at least a reaction to the other America-Russia confrontations like those over Iran, Kosovo, the missile shield in Poland & Czech Republic, etc.

I live in San Francisco now actually, and even though I have family in Russia I doubt everyone's of the same opinion. A lot of people are rather pleased with Russia's actions, some are horrified.

Sort of like US-public's opinion on Iraq when it first started I suppose...

Thanks. (damn 10 character limit)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As to crushing Chechens - small enclave - took a long, long time. I think a long time commitment in Georgia would of wrecked the Russians.

Even the American military couldn't totally supress rebels in Iraq very quickly, though I hear the surge might be working for the moment - guerrilla wars take years to end.

If Russia decided to conquer Georgia it probably could, but I would definitely expect a partisan army to rise up. Russia knows this and thus probably won't involve itself to that degree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"Welcome to Cold War 2.0"

I could not agree more - this is the first incident of that new Cold War that marks it as inevitable.

The REAL winner in all this is the Military Industrial Complex!

Gooooooo Horriblycorruptcorporationshappilysellingtoolsofdeath!! Yaaay! ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'll be particularly cold in Europe then, as gas supplies from the CIS become a weapon......

So it seems that Russia arranged to have its vaunted military granted the role of 'peace keeper' in the two breakaway enclaves. They use this role to issue Russian passports to anyone who will take them so that they may claim that there are Russian citizens in danger. They also provide weapons which the rebels use to fire on targets outside of the enclave in Georgia. Russia builds up forces in the area while stoking the fires of rebellion then when Georgia has had enough and decides to assert control over territory that is still technically part of Georgia Russia cries foul, claims genocide, rushes in forces that just happen to be camped on the border and proceeds to not only liberate the disputed territories, but to continue on into Georgia proper to 'punish' the Georgians for having the nerve to attempt to defend themselves from attacks undertaken from their own soil.

Maybe the back story is true - maybe not.

What is indisputable is that Georgia screwed up royally - either playing into the Russian long term plan, or playing into Russian convenience.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree the sequence I posted may be a bit paranoid, but you know the old saying.....

If it is not true then I would like to know what if anything the 'peace keepers' did to stop the attacks from the rebels.

BTW - How the hell did I drop to 36 posts! Damn forum flush!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russia in the end can only lose, as all Georgia has to do is gain admission to NATO. Once this happens, no more Russian aggression on its neighbors. So, in the end, Russia won't even be considered a regional power. Isn't this going to be decided in December, the whole NATO new member thing?

So talk about the Cold War 2.0 is nonsensical if Georgia and Ukraine are accepted into NATO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

uh ... ISTR Cold War 1.0 trucked along just fine when there was a NATO and a Warsaw Pact. NATO isn't a new, post-Cold War 1.0, thing you know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, should I copyright "Cold War 2.0" before some schmuck beats me to it?

Sad that it is even happening, let alone that it needs a name :( Hoped we were past this phase in human/societal evolution

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hey, should I copyright "Cold War 2.0" before some schmuck beats me to it?

Sad that it is even happening, let alone that it needs a name :( Hoped we were past this phase in human/societal evolution

You might as well, I think the Ukraine is the real Russian target, without it they will not be a superpower. The question is can Putin pull it off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/13/russia-says-us-faces-choice-over-georgia/

...Russia pressed the United States on Wednesday to choose between “a real partnership” with Moscow or an “illusory” relationship with U.S. ally Georgia...Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “...a choice will have to be made some day between considerations of prestige related to an illusory project and a real partnership in matters which indeed require collective efforts.”
How do you read this? It sounds to me like: if the US wants Russian help with the Iranian nuclear issue, the US should abandon Georgia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Russia in the end can only lose, as all Georgia has to do is gain admission to NATO.

Ah - it's so simple, I wonder why they didn't think about it before?!:cool:

Or perhaps NATO doesn't want Georgia, since they'd been warning them against precisely this kind of action for a couple of years now - why would you want to admit a loose cannon which you can't actually defend?

(winners) Old Europe: France and Germany, which are cautious about letting Georgia and Ukraine into Nato, will feel vindicated. They think that a country like Georgia with a border dispute should not yet be allowed in.

-from the Beeb "Winners and Losers"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There was agreat gold medal judo match yesterday beyween a Russian and a Georgian. Talk about a grudge match.

Georgia won.

I bet that would have been a good fight to see!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually I think judo seems to be about the most boring and sedate fighting sport there is. Just lots of shirt grabbing with the occasional sight of people falling on top of each other. Maybe I'm just not initiated into the technicalities of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I, also, would like to know why the Stratfor piece is being so heavily criticized? Compared to even CNN's coverage, it's still in the stratosphere; more like Low Earth Orbit for the typical coverage given. I found it well written, straightforward, and clear. As I noted in my own comment, though, I think Friedman left out a potentially very important alternative explanation to the observables. Sad to say, governments throw people, regions and nations under the bus all the time when expediency and Real Politik rear their ugly heads, so it has, I think, to be seriously examined as a scenario on this mess, a mess I fully expect to have cascading effects which likely won't be good for Russia's neighbors.

Regards,

John Kettler

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Actually I think judo seems to be about the most boring and sedate fighting sport there is. Just lots of shirt grabbing with the occasional sight of people falling on top of each other. Maybe I'm just not initiated into the technicalities of it.

The knees are king!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That just may be the real story right there.

Or, it could be as the Russian people have become more affluent in a long term 'peace' with the West, they might not like the direction this is headed, and the Gov't may suffer its ouster.

No doubt the neighbors are concerned about their freedom, but even the Bear can't take out the Ukraine, and they certainly cannot expect this do more than enhance the resolve of the prior WP nations.

Russia's 'Us or Them' conversation with the US is not going to go well for Russia, I think. Condi is in her element here, and she can go toe to toe with the 'Ruskies in Diplomatic Combat'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Or, it could be as the Russian people have become more affluent in a long term 'peace' with the West, they might not like the direction this is headed, and the Gov't may suffer its ouster.

No doubt the neighbors are concerned about their freedom, but even the Bear can't take out the Ukraine, and they certainly cannot expect this do more than enhance the resolve of the prior WP nations.

Russia's 'Us or Them' conversation with the US is not going to go well for Russia, I think. Condi is in her element here, and she can go toe to toe with the 'Ruskies in Diplomatic Combat'.

Yeah, the Ukraine would be a tough nut to crack. I don't expect an attack or anything like that at the present time but it may be the ultimate far reaching goal. I was pleased when I heard the news that Rice was being sent...also the first C-17 has already landed and some navel assets are also heading that way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...