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Edwin P.

Would US enter War if Allies are Winning?

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Could it be scripted that that US remains neutral if France is free even if US war readiness is high? I suggest this as it would make for a more interesting game vs the AI or humans in those cases where the Allied player has prevented the Axis AI or human player from taking France.

[ March 06, 2005, 10:38 PM: Message edited by: Edwin P. ]

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I like the idea of custom defaults. I've expressed my views on both the USA and USSR declaring war on Germany too many times to elaborate on it here, but my conclusion is that neither would have done so before 1943 at the earliest.

The USSR because it wouldn't have been ready to and the USA because it would have taken that long for the public to become sufficiently anti-fascist. The public view was still very isolationist even in 1941.

Japanese sinkings of US gunboats in China and German sinkins of destroyers on convoy duty (two ships in each instance) complete with loss of American naval personnel, did nothing to stir war fever. In fact, it had the opposite effect, people questioned why the US was putting it's ships and men in peril on convoy duty and in China!

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Except, if the unpredictable Japanese attacked the US sooner than 1943 (ie Dec 7, 1941) or Japan attacked Russia (and Germany met its obligations under its alliance with Japan), both of these events apparantly could be scripted into the game.

Example:

% Japan Attacks Russia on Date XX/XX/XX and Russia mobilizes for war. Thus placing pressure on Germany to attack Russia.

Popup: News Flash: The Empire of Japan invades Eastern Russia. Russia mobilizes for war.

% Japan Attacks USA on Dec 7, 1941 and USA moblizes for war. If this occurs and Germany does not DOW USA by June 1942 then, perhaps, Russia should receive an early Siberian Transfer as the Japanese would be facing the full weight of American military power.

Popup: News Flash: The Empire of Japan attacked the US Naval Base at Pearl Harbor. America moblizes for war.

Of course, ideally I would like to see these percentages affected by American/Russian policy decisions vs. Japan.

Example: If USA imposes oil embargo on Japan then greater chance for Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and much reduced chance for attack on Russia.

Example: If Russia pursues trade agreement with Japan then reduced chance for Japanese attack on Russia = Early Siberian Transfer at cost of lower production as resources are going to Japan.

Perhaps give the American player a popup with 2 or 3 policy options affecting relations with Japan. The American player selects one and this affects the % in the above mentioned scripts.

[ March 07, 2005, 02:00 PM: Message edited by: Edwin P. ]

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Edwin,

The Japanese weren't unpredictable at all, it was the United States that was unpredictable!

In the Pacific, the United States took it upon itself to dictate policy to other nations. After making the Japanese dependent upon it's raw materials, the United States imposed a crippling embargo upon Japan with conditions for lifting it that they couldn't possible accept. At the same time, FDR moved the Pacific Fleet, which was quite formidable, from San Diego to Hawaii. Further, coastal instalations were begun along the Pacific coast and, with the fleet going to Pearl Harbor, B-17s were sent to both the Phillipines and the Hawaian Islands.

From Japan's viewpoint, the United States was not only preparing for war, but attempting through economic sanctions to put Japan in a subjugative position.

The Japanese realized how unlikely they were to win a war against the United States -- as in, establish a perimeter and actually hold it.

The Pearl Harbor attack was actually an act of desperation! They did it at the last possible time they could do so while planning on having the Indies and Indochina resources flowing in to replace those that the United States cut off. They also couldn't do it any later than they did because the United States was already putting it's newly built Iowa Class BBs and larger carriers into service, along with improved fighter aircraft and it's unmatched heavy bombers.

Anyway, my slow fuse approace would assume that the War in the Pacific didn't come about till later or, if it did, Germany didn't DoW the USA, which is another subject.

Those wanting it to happen as it did historically, can always choose the historic option.

As for the USSR -- Japan attacking it in Asia is an entirely different set of circumstances. Attacked by Japan, why would Russia declare war on Germany? How does that make any sense at all?

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Edwin,

Your scripting ideas are very interesting, as usual. I'll need to examine them more closely before offering more input.

But, A USA oil embargo on Japan guarantees an attack on Pearl Harbor, unless they choose instead to move around the Phillipines and invade the Dutch East Indies without taking the U. S. protectorate or knocking out the fleet at Pearl Harbor.

I don't think Roosevelt could have gotten Congress to declare war on that basis, but that's only my personal opinion.

-- I may have misread some of what you wrote, also. If Japan attacks Siberia in conjuction with Germany, why not simply represent that without scripting where the game is set for No Siberian Reserve transfer? I thought that was what the option represented.

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Good points.

As for why would Russia declare war on Germany if it is attacked by Japan, its more likely that Germany would be forced to declare war on Russia.

Why? Once Japan attacks Russia will begin to mobilize its country for war. This will strengthen it against any future attack by Germany. Germany must attack now, before Russia has a chance to strengthen its armed forces.

Of course, it would be best for Germany if they never attacked Russian and concentrated there forces on securing control of Western Europe and the Mediterrean.

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Originally posted by JerseyJohn:

But, A USA oil embargo on Japan guarantees an attack on Pearl Harbor, unless they choose instead to move around the Phillipines and invade the Dutch East Indies without taking the U. S. protectorate or knocking out the fleet at Pearl Harbor.

I agree, so set the % of a Japanese attach at say 95% with a USA Oil Embargo.

-- I may have misread some of what you wrote, also. If Japan attacks Siberia in conjuction with Germany, why not simply represent that without scripting where the game is set for No Siberian Reserve transfer? I thought that was what the option represented.

I was thinking more along the lines of an event that could turn the Siberian Transfer Off or cause it to occur early. OFF if Japan Attacks Russia and early if USA is a war with Japan without entering war with Germany and Italy. Its just that I think a game is more interesting, for both the Allies and Axis, if you don't know if the Siberian Transfer will be on or off.

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Edwin,

What all of this hinges on, historically, is that Germany was a first class power while it's allies weren't. Japan was a second class power and Japan fourth class.

So -- it boils down to Japan being unable to handle either the USSR or the USA by itself.

How does Germany support it's Asian Ally?

-- From that view, everything you've said regarding your scripting is perfectly sound.

I agree that, if Japan attacks the USSR, Germany has to join her because alone she'll eventually lose. But -- I wouldn't want to have it as an immediate automatic situation! If Japan and the USSR go to war, it shouldn't automatically mean the Germany is automatically at war too. It would seem likely to me that, assuming there weren't already German troops massed at the frontier, Hitler would have chosen to mass as much force as possible there and declare war when he was strong enough to surge forward as Barbarossa did historically.

I like the idea that there would be a 5% chance of Japan getting around the embargo by taking the Dutch East Indies without going to war with the United States.

If they had done that historically, I think that action, along with and assuming Germany was invading the USSR, might actually have begun jolting the American public out of it's isolationism. Probably that should also be represented in the game.

-- One of the things I'm wondering about is how much of this Hubert can add to the game. Knowing that would help us speculate on how far it should be capable of moving from the historical model.

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Originally posted by JerseyJohn:

I agree that, if Japan attacks the USSR, Germany has to join her because alone she'll eventually lose. But -- I wouldn't want to have it as an immediate automatic situation! If Japan and the USSR go to war, it shouldn't automatically mean the Germany is automatically at war too.

Excellent point JerseyJohn, and as my post says "Japan Attacks Russia ......and Russia mobilizes for war. Thus placing pressure on Germany to attack Russia."

I tried to say that Germany is not automatically at war with Russia, its just that the Russian economy switches to a war footing and Germany, as a consequence, has a strong incentive to attack Russia ASAP, as you have stated.

Of course Russian war readiness will also be affected by other factors such as German actions against other nations, the numbers of troops on the border, etc.. All important events, but they all ignore the important role that Japan played in WWII.

[ March 07, 2005, 03:50 PM: Message edited by: Edwin P. ]

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It hinges on what sort of attack on Siberia Japan mounts. Historically they waddled in, just local commanders doing something absurd and paying the consequences for it.

Assuming Japan launches a well prepared assault on Asiatic Russia, it should be that all of the new Soviet formations and most up to date equipment would be going to fight the Japanese. They wouldn't be placing any new units in European Russia.

Further, there would now need to be something in place to simulate the effect on Russia in Europe in proportion to how it's war against Japan is going.

-- Regardless of it's European-side production, Russia can still only move troops supplies east via The Trans Siberian Railroad, which was a large part of it's undoing in 1905.

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This discussion brings up an interesting question. In a world scenario will the SC2 engine be able to distribute resources(MPPs) to one nation's eventual belligerent? For instance, if Japan goes to war with the USSR, could the USA still be providing oil/iron ore resources (ala Lend Lease provision MPP transfer) to the Japanese? On the other hand, as Germany assaults the West (France & UK) would USSR be able to provide additional MPPs to the German cause to represent their continuing war product exports?

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I like where this is going.

But as for Edwin's first question.

American citizens did not wish to go to war, this is well documented and the President was very aware.

So if things would not be going to good for Germany in Europe and the possibility of UK/France and it's minor allies winning. He might have listened to the will of the people and not gone to war.

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Lots of interesting historical speculation--I think FDR was primarily concerned with keeping Britain and China from being overwhelmed--knowing that Germany and Japan would succumb to long wars. If the US wound up getting involved in the war (likely), that was an acceptable price to pay--if it was able to stay non-beligerant so much the better (though he had no illusions about the near-impossiblity of this, I think).

In any case, it seems to be difficult to get too much Pacific strategic implications involved in SC. The net effect of these various nuances seems to be to alter the percent chance of "war in Siberia." Unless I've misread something, maybe that could change from an "on/off" setting to a "percent chance (that could be specified)" and "random" setting.

Players can use their imaginations about why the Red Army is still in Siberia while the Germans are skiing in the Urals... (how infuriating IS it when that happens??)

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Interesting theory. If the Germans were being defeated without USA then why would the USA get directly involved and contribute American lives? Only under a Declaration of War and an attack from an Axis Power.

So leaving those out for Germany<as more of her attacks were indirectly aimed at the US shipments to the Allies> Hitler probably would've never jumped on the bandwagon to DOW the USA. Especially considering his early ambitious plans in Western Europe and in Russia had failed or fallen short of his expectations.

Likewise the Japanese may not have had just harsh embargos if they weren't such expanionist Fools. Had they been more appeasing and slowly taken over China with more Diplomatic and slow moving annexations... Though the Japanese branches were quite divided, quite chaotic. I disagree with some say about their decisionmaking being more sound than ours... <the Japanese Army had portions that didn't want to surrender after the A-Bombs were dropped and the Emperor had officially surrendered, they planned a coup that failed. Had it succeeded, hundreds of thousands more American lives might've been lost liberating China and other regions and their spirit was to the death>

Why would Japan attack Russia? Unless Russia was defeated a highly mechanized Russian force would've likely destroyed the Japanese like they had in the 30s.Now were Russia being pounded by Germany and then Japan on the bandwagon along with Germany, eventually political pressure from Berlin to Tokyo could've possibly pushed the Japanese Army to seize Russia, especially if the Brits lost India and China was pretty much in the bag... However I think the Japanese saw India is a slight bit juicer target. Bit more natural resources in SouthEast Asia, Indonesia,<and India was a threat against it's domination there> so Far East probably would've been seized more painlessly if anything but for SC2's sake. What I'd like to suggest more the Effects of Japan's strikes on India or the MiddleEast. As Germany and Japan if they crippled Suez would've most definitely dominated this region, forcing Russia to act against Japan instead of the other way around... Likely pushing Stalin in

Also cutting out Churchill and his lifeline to Australia and the Far East Colonies and Defense and Support to the Americans.. Furthering the demise of the British Empire

[ March 09, 2005, 09:25 PM: Message edited by: Liam ]

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Militarly there wouldn't be any reason for the US to get involved, but politically there would be great incentive.

US involvement would give them the opportunity to influence post-war European politics to a much greater extent than if they remained neutral.

Stating the obvious department: There was no military reason for USSR to declare war on Japan in 1945--that was a political decision.

Similar considerations might have entered US calculations.

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Originally posted by Edwin P.:

Could it be scripted that that US remains neutral if France is free even if US war readiness is high? I suggest this as it would make for a more interesting game vs the AI or humans in those cases where the Allied player has prevented the Axis AI or human player from taking France.

Wouldn't a gamey German player just surround Paris with corps for the duration?

Might be worth forgoing the plunder to keep the US out. And not having to worry about Free French. Or having to declare war on Vichy later to take the overseas possesions.

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Or perhaps an alternate surrender rule for (some?) major powers? If I recall, the French packed it in well before the Germans entered Paris?

How about a rule that if a major power capitol is isolated (surrounded, or can't trace supply to another city/resource) for a certain amount of time, the country surrenders or relocates the capitol (in the case of the English and Russians)?

Oh, and my favorite color is blue.

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There's a simple solution to this which I've used in some games.

If the allies are winning and won't need the Americans, then just don't use them. A gentleman's agreement to thus keep the game interesting, or if you are playing the AI, your own decision, must surely suffice?

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Originally posted by Hubert Cater:

There will be much more control wrt activation value jumps in game, so with the right combination of Activation scripts (custom or default) this would be more than possible.

Perhaps I can write a script that says;

10% Popup: News Flash: Empire of Japan announces withdrawal of its forces from China along with withdrawal from the Triparte Axis Alliance. President Rooosevelt lifts the ban on the sale of oil to Japan.

USA War Readiness Declines 20%

USA Gains 2 Carriers and 2 cruisers.

I wonder if the effect of this would be balanced for gameplay purposed in SC2

And for those newcomers to the Forum, here's an interesting concept:

Shaka of Carthage - Member # 11766

posted November 30, 2003 11:13 PM

----------------------------------------

I like your idea of "news events" telling you indirectly why the Russian readiness increased.

About the US entry being no later than Pearl Harbor, I must say I disagree. Lets not forget, that Hitler DoW'd on the US, not the US DoWing on Germany.

What I'd like to see, is the actions of Japan (which are off-map), being "historical" or "random". The US readiness percentage, would be effected by the Japanese actions as well as Axis (Germany/Italy) actions. And just like you described for Russia, it would be nice to see some sort of "news event" showing the actions that Japan did.

Without getting into too much detail, Japanese actions would dictate what kind of Commonwealth units the UK would receive. Example would be Japan making major advances in Indo-China, would reduce the number of CW units that would reinforce Egypt as well as forcing the US readiness to go higher. While the Japanese DoW on US ('41 if historical, sooner or later if random) would in turn force US to war with Japan, it would not guarantee a German DoW on the US.

Germany would have the option of DoWing on US, because in return it wanted Japan to DoW on Russia. If it was determined that Japan would DoW on Russia, that would mean no Siberians for Russia as well as a MPP reduction.

Now, lets get back to Russia. Russia has the option of transferring troops to fight against Germany. But if it does so, it would weaken the forces facing Japan. Hence, if the Russians transferred the Siberians before fighting Japan, Japan would have the advantage. If it doesn't transfer them, then it would just about gurantee success in a conflict against Japan. That would put the decision in Russian hands on how to handle the Siberians, with the pro's and con's that they had in real life.

[ July 11, 2005, 08:01 AM: Message edited by: Edwin P. ]

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Unfortunatly players tend to abuse the rules.

Look at SC how we players dance around to activate the siberian transfer, regarding the increase of war readiness.

If the US only enters the war when the allies are weak I can see the allied players weaken himself or the axis players exactly avoiding the moves to bring in the US.

I would like a little less fixed rules to "important" random events.

Another exmaple is WAW . Here again the players are "Regelf├╝chse". They move exactly in a way that the US enters at the latest possible date. There is no risk only benefits for the players to play this way . But it is boring if the players have to play by an exact rule book to optimize their play. (IMHO)

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