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Will Russia Attack Ukraine in September?

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Well, according to former US General Ben Hodges. Thats not impossible. They have a window there, he says. Together with the massive Russian exersice, Kavkaz 2020 (Caucasus 2020) together with  the blaime of water shortage in Crimea, as a masikirovka. And US elections, together with corona crisis. 

 

Interveiw Vith Ben Hodges

 

 https://informnapalm.org/en/ben-hodges-if-kremlin-will-move/

 

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Posted (edited)

This is a third warning during three months from different sources. Water crisis in Crimea will buid up very quickly. Most of Crimean water reservoirs already dried out by 50-70 %. From Russia to Crimea also already moved about  500 000 of settlers, that creates additional water resourse load. But for Russia is no matter to problems of local civilians - only one is important - stable and sufficient water supply on military units. Currently their supply is mostly normal, but who knows, what will be through the year, if the winter will be again without snow and too few rains in other seasons?   

Ukraine now is moving additional units to the South, also during the Caucasus-2020 will be conducted large Ukrainian maneuvers with participation of NATO units.

Edited by Haiduk

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8 hours ago, Holien said:

Nothing for the Russians to gain...

Land is nothing now? Can I get land for free if its so nothing then? 😃

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This is a third warning during three months from different sources. Water crisis in Crimea will buid up very quickly. Most of Crimean water reservoirs already dried out by 50-70 %. From Russia to Crimea also already moved about  500 000 of settlers, that creates additional water resourse load. But for Russia is no matter to problems of local civilians - only one is important - stable and sufficient water supply on military units. Currently their supply is mostly normal, but who knows, what will be through the year, if the winter will be again without snow and too few rains in other seasons?   

Ukraine now is moving additional units to the South, also during the Caucasus-2020 will be conducted large Ukrainian maneuvers with participation of NATO units.

Can't water be trained in via tankers? - I thought that was part of the idea behind building the rail/road bridge to make logistics easier. Probably it'll cost a tad more to import and be prioritised, rather than used on agriculture.  I see there's a canal but that's been cut off, and Russians are happy to throw rubles at the problem. North Crimean Canal  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-36013263

North Crimean Canal / Kherson, Oblast (province)- Would that be an obvious target for land grab?

Nord-Krim-Kanal.png?v=638909dcd4fd199fdb

 

Edited by Wicky

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https://jamestown.org/program/pro-russian-disinformation-operations-in-kherson-a-new-old-challenge-for-ukraines-national-security/

June 29, 2020 - On June 5, Serhiy Nayev, the commander of the Operational Command East of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, reported that the military and law enforcement agencies have strengthened the protection of critical infrastructure in the Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts to meet a possible Russian invasion. Primarily, the efforts included fortifying the security and defense capabilities of local water-supply infrastructure objects (such as the North Crimean Canal). In addition, the authorities implemented multiple counter-sabotage and counter-terrorism measures (Ukrinform.ua, June 5). At the same time, some of this new military equipment and additional personnel were spotted on the territory of the Henicheskyi district, along the Sea of Azov (Vizit.ks.ua, June 5).

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Posted (edited)
On 7/23/2020 at 10:56 AM, Wicky said:

Can't water be trained in via tankers?

No. Neither tankers nor even by the pipes through the bridge. Russian Kuban' region beyond the Kerch Strait hasn't enough water resourses to supply additionaly Crimea. In first years Russian administration of Crimea drilled many artesian wells, but large consumption quickly degrades theses wells and the place of fresh-water occupies sea water - this leads to soil salinization. 

Relatively better situation with water only in south Crimea, were the springs and rivers in the mountains, but growing migration and military bases will demand more and more water.  Crimea peninsula is returning to the same condition, which was before Northern-Dnieper channel building - this will be again saline-steppes or half-deserts in the northern and eastern parts. 

Russians tried to throw discussion about water for Crimea in Ukraininan society, including through several media-figures of "People's servant" party, as if "we must give a water to our Ukrainian people in Crimea" and "we must prevent ecological disaster of our Crimea", but even the tips that we can give the water to ther Crimea summoned the storm in social networks, so this question luckily doesn't have the continue. For now. 

On 7/23/2020 at 10:56 AM, Wicky said:

North Crimean Canal / Kherson, Oblast (province)- Would that be an obvious target for land grab?

Yes. But it need to consider, many channel sections already out of service. Locals are looting large concrete plates of the chanel, the watercourse overgrown with bushes and trees for 6 years in many sections. Russians need to repair occupied section of the channel in order to the water could pass. So if they wil start any works - this will be first sign "the attack is coming". Though, they can attack first and then to start repair, as if "locals had several years of problems, so they can be patient one year more".

Russian primary targets will be the сhannel gate near the Chervonyi Chaban village, which closes the water flow to Crimea, then the pump facility in Nova Kakhovka town, which serve the water in the channel and and Kakhovla hydroelectric power plant in the same town as well as the dam. Their secondary target can be some "security zone" that Ukrainian artillery couldn't hit electric plant, else the pumps will not be able to work. Also they should to secure or more probably just block the bridges through the Dnieper near Kherson. Though the area of Kherson oblast between Crimea and Kakhovka resorvoir is hard for fast advance of large number of armor, because there are many irrigation canals, limiting the maneuvers. Russians will be forced to break through along three roads, heading to Nova Kakhovka and Kakhovka towns. Crimea garrison hasn't enough forces to coplete this task, so air-assault units must be moved to Crimea first.

    zem3-e1594734604730.jpg

zem0-e1594734570686.jpg

Edited by Haiduk

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This would make a superb mission pack. New and Unique situation (for now...give it 5 years and this type of strategic concern will be way more prevalent...).

That's interesting, how infrastructure improvement could be a harbinger of an attack. Although, as you note, it would make sense (given Russia's somewhat limited resources in the area?) to hold off construction or attack until absolutely necessary.

Conditions driving that threshold could be increasing civilian unrest in Crimea due to water issues, although realistically the Govt will only truly care when the military starts to get affected.

But it could an easy Blame Game to generate, to take the unrest (caused by local Govt incompetence) and blame it on UKR, "necessitating" local correction of the situation.

Nothing particularly Russian about such a move, of course. All Govt's are bastards to some degree :).

Edited by kinophile

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