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Erwin

THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM

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Posted (edited)

Nay ... any Guy from Boston can be my wingman once salty pubs open up along the shore. The worst of this is not getting to "discuss" face to face and agree to disagree over shots. Voltaire would have been as pissed as we are now. Nothing enlightening going on at all for the past 2 months. Nada. 

Kevin

Edited by kevinkin

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Scientists have enough evidence to conclude that the spread of the virus in the US came primarily from travel to/from New York City.  They have also concluded that the source of the outbreak there was from sources in Europe.  Which means the bulk of people sickened with COVID-19 in the US got it from NYC, which got it from Europe, which got it from China.  A large chunk of the cases in the West Coast of the US, on the other hand, came more directly from China.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Furthermore, the spread was happening weeks before the Trump Admin imposed travel restrictions to/from China and Europe.  The evidence is 100% crystal clear on this... those travel restrictions were like tossing a bucket of water on a house fire.  Action was needed probably 1-2 months before anybody (Feds or States) took proactive steps.  I'm sure the same story is true for Europe and elsewhere.  This is no surprise because epidemiologists have made it clear, for decades now, that by the time it is detectable through casual observation it's too late to stop it.

If Plan A is to lock down whenever China gets a sniffle, we're screwed as that is impractical in the extreme.  Therefore, we're in need of some rather creative thinking to figure out how we're going to deal with outbreaks in the future.  Because one thing is for sure, there will be a next time.  Anybody who is still thinking of such outbreaks as a "once in a hundred year event" have not been paying attention to reality.

Steve

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We here in Sweden had a report yesterday that they suspect we could have had a case as early as late November, so community spread could have started much much earlier than any could have anticipated or reacted to. Then we have a week of from school in the end of February when a lot of people go skiing in the Alps (France, Italy, Switzerland and Austria) and that's when a lot of cross-infection occured, they came home and started to spread even more. Not all felt sick. And with incubation time and all, it was another couple of weeks before things became worrying and then too much time was already lost. Pretty soon the realization was that containment would be near impossible despite efforts of contact tracing. 

I have heard, but not sure if it is confirmed, that the strain on the US west coast is not as deadly as the one (European) on the east coast. Not that surprising that NY got hit so very hard as most air travel from Europe goes there or through there.

One slim hope, not a solution at all, is that the virus will mutate into something less deadly. After all, from the virus' standpoint (not that it is really something living), being deadly is a failure as it needs a host to survive and over time the strain of the virus that will be most spread is less of a threat.

Then we have the problem of multi-resistant bacteria, but that's another can of worms...

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18 minutes ago, rocketman said:

We here in Sweden had a report yesterday that they suspect we could have had a case as early as late November, so community spread could have started much much earlier than any could have anticipated or reacted to.

France, IIRC, identified a case in December which tracks with what Sweden discovered and is not all that different than what was discovered in the US in late January (so far that's the earliest known).  That person had direct connection to China travel.  However, the latest known earliest COVID death was on February 6 and that person had no ties they could find to any known source.  Therefore, it is likely that the virus was already spreading through casual contact in at least some parts of the US in January.  That's some 6-8 weeks before lock downs started.

Quote

I have heard, but not sure if it is confirmed, that the strain on the US west coast is not as deadly as the one (European) on the east coast. Not that surprising that NY got hit so very hard as most air travel from Europe goes there or through there.

I haven't seen any scientific reporting on this yet, but it does seem logical.  For a while now people have been wondering why places like Los Angeles region don't look like New York City area.  The evidence in the previous link I posted shows that there's at least two dominant strains, with the west coast getting one and the east coast and interior getting the other.  One being more deadly than the other does help explain why LA isn't NYC.

Steve

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Jezus Fugin' Xist already.... Six years since Red Thunder was released?  And now 'the developer' is on another Rant Mode like he did with 'Ukraine in the Membrain'?  I suppose he did take time to apply for the gubbermint small company loan?   Get to work.  You work from home.  No one cares about your stupid politics and half-assed medical musings.   

There are more people in Queens NY than Maine+NH+Vermont.  The Tri-State area of NY+NJ+CT has half the deaths in the US.  The people in other states act like paid bums.  That is all anyone needs to know.  

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Holien said:

Erwin are you working for Mr T...

T tells me that he reads this thread avidly and gets a lot of good ideas from here.

Everyone is jumping on the bandwagon:  "...his likely Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, appear to be fastening on to China's unpopularity as an election issue, with each accusing the other of being a patsy for America's primary economic competitor."

Finally, we're going in the same direction and have coming togetherness and unity in the US!    B)

Edited by Erwin

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Posted (edited)

It could be due to "strains" but more likely due to the population density in NYC and the fact that people there are living on top of each other. That is, many multigenerational apartments where a bedroom serves as a nursing bed for an elder. Especially a problem in Brooklyn and Queens. Some elders just want to die at home. I don't blame them. Grandma might be cured of the China virus and then pass away from a urinary infection developed in the hospital. Our elders know that going to a hospital is very risky one way or the other.  Again, if the POTUS closed travel from Europe the same day as he did China, the US would be open to a large extent and only perhaps 10 or so million would be out of work. A Recession vs a Depression. The POTUS made a bad audible at the line of scrimmage. 

Edited by kevinkin

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42 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

It could be due to "strains" but more likely due to the population density in NYC and the fact that people there are living on top of each other. That is, many multigenerational apartments where a bedroom serves as a nursing bed for an elder.

I'm sure that is a big part of why NYC is the worst of the worst.  However, much of NJ is more like downtown LA and suburban housing and yet their death rate is vastly higher than the entire state of California. Same with Mass and Connecticut is roughly tied with CA.  The latter two states are more similar to CA than to NYC.

42 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Again, if the POTUS closed travel from Europe the same day as he did China, the US would be open to a large extent and only perhaps 10 or so million would be out of work. A Recession vs a Depression.

There's no scientific basis to support this theory.  By the time the travel restrictions went into place, it was already here and spreading.  It was already too late. See previous link.

Now, if the travel restrictions were all put in place all at the same time from all countries AND all states went into lockdown for a month... yes, I think that would have made a huge difference in terms of where we are now.  But nobody was up for that.  Nobody.

This is the problem with a pandemic.  The only way to squash it flat is to act immediately (not months late) and ruthlessly.  The latter would involve a REAL suspension of core civil liberties, internal travel restrictions, curfews, arrests, and all kinds of things which Americans as a whole have zero appetite for.

What makes me chuckle and cry at the same time is that when very mild, and inadequate, mitigation policies were being contemplated there was a very loud group pushing back against them for economic and/or civil liberties reasons.  This continued even as COVID-19 cases exploded and it was plainly obvious that this was not the same as the seasonal flu, a hoax pushed by Dems, etc.  Now they are the same ones fighting to open up the economy before states are ready to, which is likely going to make things worse again for many places.  Gotta give them credit for being consistent, at least... wrong, wrong, and wrong again. 

42 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The POTUS made a bad audible at the line of srimable. 

Understatement and misspelling of the year award all in one line :)

A strong President would have had a difficult, if not impossible, time convincing Americans that the right things needed to be done at the right time.  Unfortunately, we have the opposite.  Bigly.

Steve

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7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, much of NJ is more like downtown LA and suburban housing and yet their death rate is vastly higher than the entire state of California.

Don't confuse LA with New Jersey. Those are fighting words. We in NJ at least pick up our dog's ****. They don't even pick up human **** in California.

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There's no scientific basis to support this theory.

Just give it a year ... it will be proven that the spread in the NE came into JFK Newark and Boston. And that the spread in the NE closed the entire US economy. The west coast has little to do with why we are all closed down. Think. Wall Street. And the NE media corridor. 

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What makes me chuckle and cry at the same time is that when very mild, and inadequate, mitigation policies were being contemplated there was a very loud group pushing back against them for economic and/or civil liberties reasons. 

In what jurisdictions were mild mitigation policies ever considered?  Seems the hammer and sickle came down around St. Patrick's day and no one had a say in the matter. 

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2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Don't confuse LA with New Jersey. Those are fighting words. We in NJ at least pick up our dog's ****. They don't even pick up human **** in California.

Just give it a year ... it will be proven that the spread in the NE came into JFK Newark and Boston. And that the spread in the NE closed the entire US economy. The west coast has little to do with why we are all closed down. Think. Wall Street. And the NE media corridor. 

What???  You guys can't even pump your own gas!  :D  You realize CA is a big state right? Our population is over 4x NJ.  We are 3rd in size, NJ is freakin 47th.  Only CT, DE and RI are smaller.  Our GDP is 5x NJ.  Our s**t is gold, but we are so wealthy we don't deign to pick it up. :P  Oh yeah I'm slightly biased.  I am from Philly.  LOL   Freakin NJ... what exit?

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2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Don't confuse LA with New Jersey. Those are fighting words. We in NJ at least pick up our dog's ****. They don't even pick up human **** in California.

As a wise man once said, people who live in Jersey should not throw stones :)

Quote

Just give it a year ... it will be proven that the spread in the NE came into JFK Newark and Boston.

Don't need a year as they've already established that is the case.  You really should read the link I posted.

Quote

And that the spread in the NE closed the entire US economy. The west coast has little to do with why we are all closed down. Think. Wall Street. And the NE media corridor. 

You ascribe motives to the virus that it does not have.  The virus spreads and it sickens people.  That is all it does and all it will ever do.  It has no interest in the stock market or anything else.  Instead, it goes to wherever it is taken.  And since millions of Americans visit NYC every month, this time they brought home more than memories and little Statue of Liberty keepsakes.  It is the spread of the disease, and the fear of it, that is shutting everything down.

Quote

In what jurisdictions were mild mitigation policies ever considered? 

Since they are the policies in place now, of course they were considered otherwise we'd have something else in place.  Such as the sorts of extremely strict stuff that Asia and much of Europe did and/or is still doing.  With almost no exceptions, in the US there are no curfews, travel passes, checkpoints, and the usual "not mild" stuff that I can easily tick off as possibilities.

Let me turn it around.  If what we're living under right now is not "mild" in your opinion, what policies would you consider less onerous and yet just as effective?  I'd welcome you citing sources for your position too, because I've not seen anything out there.  Perhaps I've missed something?

Quote

Seems the hammer and sickle came down around St. Patrick's day and no one had a say in the matter. 

Sure people have a say in what is happening.  Polls show that Republicans and Democrats alike overwhelmingly SUPPORT the measures currently in place and DO NOT SUPPORT premature lifting.  This is something that is stupefying to the pollsters, BTW.  Even the numbnuts that are protesting in ways that violate lockdown rules, not to mention common sense, are not being punished for it.  Cripes, what a lame police state we live in where we don't even beat the buggers senseless.  Sure, nobody is even remotely happy about the restrictions, but like a root canal it's necessary under the circumstances.

Ironically, one indication that people's voices are being ignored is the states where lockdowns are lifting "too soon" by the view of its citizens.  If the lifting of restrictions is too soon, there's going to be Hell to pay but we won't know for a few months.  Jury is still out on that one (some places it likely will be fine, others unlikely fine).  Shouldn't we fear any minority that has say over the majority, or only if the minority leans left?

So let me recap.

Short of establishing a de facto police state (which we are VERY far away from today), we're screwed.  Socially, economically, and politically.  Our society simply is not set up to handle this sort of challenge.  Either our economy tanks because people voluntarily stay home, are forced to stay home, or not at the workplace because they are sick or dead  Arguably, the latter is the worst course of action sets ideal conditions for the virus to spread and to break the healthcare system.  If you don't think that will wreck the economy, well... interesting.

The other thing that has to be kept in mind is Humans are programmed to look out for themselves.  If your community is getting sick, Human Nature does not push individuals to continue on as if nothing is happening.  Look at Sweden if you don't believe this.  They have very lax restrictions, yet their economy is taking a huge hit anyway because people are exercising their rights to opt out of business as usual.  Ironically, the government would have to FORCE people to go to work for it to be anything other than that.  Not that it would turn out well in the end anyway. 

Good example are the food processing plants where their workers, even with the mild mitigation in place, are dropping like flies.  Imagine if there were no mitigation efforts.  Better?  No way.  People would get sicker, faster, and with less time to adapt.  Catastrophic failure would be the result.  The big lesson from COVID-19 is that Western society is as fragile and prone to failure as the pandemic experts have warned for decades. If you want a country with an economy that won't collapse the next time around, then you should push for changes that are likely to improve outcomes.  Denial and blame ain't going to get us there.

The reality is the virus is not political, it is biological.  As such it follows the rules of Mother Nature.  We Humans can either accept that and work with what we have, or suffer for our ignorance and denial. 

Steve

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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

If what we're living under right now is not "mild" in your opinion, what policies would you consider less onerous and yet just as effective?  I'd welcome you citing sources for your position too, because I've not seen anything out there.  Perhaps I've missed something?

Can't cite any sources since this is new situation and can't be studied in a controlled fashion. However, immediately (say March 1) going to 50% occupancy for indoor places of business and wearing face coverings indoors would have been a way to balance the infection rate and the unemployment rate. In NJ, they first closed all restaurants and bars on March 17, then 6 days later everything closed but places to get food, booze and keep your house and car maintained. Then ~2 weeks later they required face coverings indoors. Then they closed parks and golf. Then they opened parks and golf at 50% due to public pressure. Very haphazard. Now we are going to work backwards by opening back up to 50% maybe sometime in June. Restaurants are praying for outdoor dining by Memorial Day weekend. If so, it will be the biggest tailgate party ever. There is no way to know if closing at 50% on March 1 would have been as effective as 100% on March 22. But if the goal was 6 feet apart to avoid 6 feet under, I think it was likely achievable at 50%. Since we are going to be at 50% anyway, why not go there initially especially in less populated areas of the country? A targeted response was more appropriate and likely how it will play out the next time. Like I said before, we have to learn to live with this and other new viruses and we can't do that sitting on the couch. 

https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/496586-the-burden-of-proof-lies-with-economic-lockdown-proponents

9 hours ago, sburke said:

You guys can't even pump your own gas

We can and do at times. But the law does not officially allow it. I like the fact the wife does not have too. I suppose I would have to fill her car. Just another little thing to plan for. 

BTW NJ has a higher per capita income than CA (3rd in the nation; 1st apart from the DC area) and is the most densely populated state. So while pumping, look around pick up the human feces. It's a civic "duty". CA is a beautiful state, but it's urban areas are giving it a bad rap. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

CA is a beautiful state, but it's urban areas are giving it a bad rap. 

Only to the uninformed. I have lived here 25 years the first 10 in San Francisco. The nonsense I read about life here is pretty funny. I love it here and despite the cost of living in the Bay Area we are set to staying here for retirement. The quality of life is simply so much better.  There is a reason it is expensive here. Simple demand economics.

 

Sorry NJ is so cramped.  That and your income is based on the fact that you are essentially a NY suburb.  NY took a dump and it became NJ. 

Edited by sburke

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Posted (edited)
On 5/6/2020 at 10:21 PM, kevinkin said:

Nay ... any Guy from Boston can be my wingman once salty pubs open up along the shore. The worst of this is not getting to "discuss" face to face and agree to disagree over shots. Voltaire would have been as pissed as we are now. Nothing enlightening going on at all for the past 2 months. Nada. 

Kevin

youre on

expect a lot of weed

dont worry its legal here now

and I know the bars that dont close despite rules and have special services with some females if youd like ;)

Edited by Sublime

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17 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Don't confuse LA with New Jersey. Those are fighting words. We in NJ at least pick up our dog's ****. They don't even pick up human **** in California.

Just give it a year ... it will be proven that the spread in the NE came into JFK Newark and Boston. And that the spread in the NE closed the entire US economy. The west coast has little to do with why we are all closed down. Think. Wall Street. And the NE media corridor. 

In what jurisdictions were mild mitigation policies ever considered?  Seems the hammer and sickle came down around St. Patrick's day and no one had a say in the matter. 

the NE corridor from NYC to about boston is the most dense part of America bar none

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On 5/7/2020 at 12:44 PM, rocketman said:

We here in Sweden had a report yesterday that they suspect we could have had a case as early as late November, so community spread could have started much much earlier than any could have anticipated or reacted to. Then we have a week of from school in the end of February when a lot of people go skiing in the Alps (France, Italy, Switzerland and Austria) and that's when a lot of cross-infection occured, they came home and started to spread even more. Not all felt sick. And with incubation time and all, it was another couple of weeks before things became worrying and then too much time was already lost. Pretty soon the realization was that containment would be near impossible despite efforts of contact tracing. 

I have heard, but not sure if it is confirmed, that the strain on the US west coast is not as deadly as the one (European) on the east coast. Not that surprising that NY got hit so very hard as most air travel from Europe goes there or through there.

One slim hope, not a solution at all, is that the virus will mutate into something less deadly. After all, from the virus' standpoint (not that it is really something living), being deadly is a failure as it needs a host to survive and over time the strain of the virus that will be most spread is less of a threat.

Then we have the problem of multi-resistant bacteria, but that's another can of worms...

same here they had bodies deep frozen.

theyre getting to their autopsies and finding

1. lots of old ppl who died from natural causes died from corona... awhile ago.

2. lots of strokes in young people are corona!

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19 hours ago, kevinkin said:

It could be due to "strains" but more likely due to the population density in NYC and the fact that people there are living on top of each other. That is, many multigenerational apartments where a bedroom serves as a nursing bed for an elder. Especially a problem in Brooklyn and Queens. Some elders just want to die at home. I don't blame them. Grandma might be cured of the China virus and then pass away from a urinary infection developed in the hospital. Our elders know that going to a hospital is very risky one way or the other.  Again, if the POTUS closed travel from Europe the same day as he did China, the US would be open to a large extent and only perhaps 10 or so million would be out of work. A Recession vs a Depression. The POTUS made a bad audible at the line of scrimmage. 

Im on a methadone clinic. this nice old lady on the clinic... got jumped by some junkies for her take home (methadone to take home) because shes so sick

they bruised her ribs so she went to the hospital. shes dead 3 days later because she caught covid in boston med center

I knew her years but we werent close close. Id buy klonopins off her sometimes. but ****. I feel so bad for that lady.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

"6 feet apart to avoid 6 feet under."

You should copyright that, mate. 

 

45 minutes ago, Sublime said:

I knew her years but we werent close close. Id buy klonopins off her sometimes.

LOL Thank goodness no one important monitors this thread.

There is a logical (or illogical) issue with the Chinese situation.  We all expect that the real Chinese infection and death rate is far higher than they admit.  However, if they really have so few infections and deaths cos they shut down travel so quickly to avoid infection transmission, then how come there was so much infected travel allowed to foreign countries?  

The fascinating insights from roadiemullet describe a nation with very "irregular" efficiencies.  Re his examples of dealing with authorities... some of the authorities seemed to be on top of things, other had no idea what was going on.  It was almost a comforting picture of scattered incompetence. 

However, we also know that China is working as fast as it can to institute a "1984 on steroids" society in which everyone is monitored and AI can figure out what you may be thinking/intending from facial recognition.  Your "Social Capital" - based on whether you conform and don't complain - an abominable corruption of social media, will decide if you can buy a plane or train ticket, can travel period, can even get a job...  

Then you look at China's aggressive militaristic expansion to take over the undersea oilfields all the way down to Indonesia.  Add in the annexing of Tibet and more recently making inroads across the Himalayas into Bhutan and confronting India: 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-s-Bhutan-land-grab-aims-at-bigger-target2

Then you have the infiltration into the west's institutions (when I lived in Tempe I heard that ASU has a similar issue):

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/16/how-china-infiltrated-us-classrooms-216327

https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/red-flags/11601456

One has to see the "big picture" to see what is the nature of the Chinese junta and what China is really up to.  Only then does the Pearl Harbor reference makes more sense.

Edited by Erwin

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Erwin said:

You should copyright that, mate. 

 

LOL Thank goodness no one important monitors this thread.

There is a logical (or illogical) issue with the Chinese situation.  We all expect that the real Chinese infection and death rate is far higher than they admit.  However, if they really have so few infections and deaths cos they shut down travel so quickly to avoid infection transmission, then how come there was so much infected travel allowed to foreign countries?  

The fascinating insights from roadiemullet describe a nation with very "irregular" efficiencies.  Re his examples of dealing with authorities... some of the authorities seemed to be on top of things, other had no idea what was going on.  It was almost a comforting picture of scattered incompetence. 

However, we also know that China is working as fast as it can to institute a "1984 on steroids" society in which everyone is monitored and AI can figure out what you may be thinking/intending from facial recognition.  Your "Social Capital" - based on whether you conform and don't complain - an abominable corruption of social media, will decide if you can buy a plane or train ticket, can travel period, can even get a job...  

Then you look at China's aggressive militaristic expansion to take over the undersea oilfields all the way down to Indonesia.  Add in the annexing of Tibet and more recently making inroads across the Himalayas into Bhutan and confronting India: 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-s-Bhutan-land-grab-aims-at-bigger-target2

Then you have the infiltration into the west's institutions (when I lived in Tempe I heard that ASU has a similar issue):

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/16/how-china-infiltrated-us-classrooms-216327

https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/red-flags/11601456

One has to see the "big picture" to see what is the nature of the Chinese junta and what China is really up to.  Only then does the Pearl Harbor reference makes more sense.

dude I could confess to way more than buying some punkass 3 dollar apiece prescription pills online and nothing happen.  For one its still hard to convict you based off blathering on the internet, this could be someone posing as Jeff.  Second of all, they got better stuff to do, and frankly, Im not important.  What is important is a nice lady, albeit one with a small problem with drugs ( that somehow would be sympathetic more if it was booze?? ) died over.. nothing.. 

 I hadnt personally known anyone to die or even get sick. it sucks.

China? how about VNs claim of ZERO deaths? LOL

Edited by Sublime

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54 minutes ago, Erwin said:

You should copyright that, mate. 

 

LOL Thank goodness no one important monitors this thread.

There is a logical (or illogical) issue with the Chinese situation.  We all expect that the real Chinese infection and death rate is far higher than they admit.  However, if they really have so few infections and deaths cos they shut down travel so quickly to avoid infection transmission, then how come there was so much infected travel allowed to foreign countries?  

The fascinating insights from roadiemullet describe a nation with very "irregular" efficiencies.  Re his examples of dealing with authorities... some of the authorities seemed to be on top of things, other had no idea what was going on.  It was almost a comforting picture of scattered incompetence. 

However, we also know that China is working as fast as it can to institute a "1984 on steroids" society in which everyone is monitored and AI can figure out what you may be thinking/intending from facial recognition.  Your "Social Capital" - based on whether you conform and don't complain - an abominable corruption of social media, will decide if you can buy a plane or train ticket, can travel period, can even get a job...  

Then you look at China's aggressive militaristic expansion to take over the undersea oilfields all the way down to Indonesia.  Add in the annexing of Tibet and more recently making inroads across the Himalayas into Bhutan and confronting India: 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-s-Bhutan-land-grab-aims-at-bigger-target2

Then you have the infiltration into the west's institutions (when I lived in Tempe I heard that ASU has a similar issue):

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/16/how-china-infiltrated-us-classrooms-216327

https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/red-flags/11601456

One has to see the "big picture" to see what is the nature of the Chinese junta and what China is really up to.  Only then does the Pearl Harbor reference makes more sense.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-52537663/coronavirus-by-air-the-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-middle-east

Come on Erwin it is not Pearl Harbor you are better than that? 

The link above explains the Iranian spread and shows how travel to and from China was happening. 

China  is no innocent and has been ripping off any country they can. That is not unique America stole UK secrets in WW2 and no doubt is trying to make inroads in China too. That is the world wide game...

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3 hours ago, sburke said:

NY took a dump and it became NJ.

And Marx took a dump and it became ... alfred  newman. 

 

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