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Posted (edited)

It's more than a little amusing to me that people would accuse the Chinese of trying to destabilize the world economy when the history has been for crisis to develop, routinely, out of American-European market economies. The American system is so crisis prone that the Federal Reserve is now entirely taken for granted as the economy's fire department and emergency first responder. Europe's system brags about being more resistant to crisis but it turns what they meant by that was forcing austerity measures and privatization on the Mediterranean economies. This has has yielded nothing to the people of those countries and brought with it a decline in the standard of living for most of them. This creates an extremely caustic distaste for any notion of European Federalism and creates lots of opportunities for reactionary and right-wing leaders in Europe to seize upon. 

Even the idea that the virus emerged from the wild-animal trade in China being a uniquely Chinese thing is a big pot-kettle-black. The biggest movie on Netflix last month, possibly in America, was literally about the illegal wild-animal trading that goes on in the US, not to mention how humiliatingly transparent it is. 

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I've got an idea.  Let's NOT trust scientists & doctors who ACTUALLY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. Let's trust Fox news, who've done a stellar job of brainwashing people into being very unsafe

JFC Kettler could you just once not spread your conspiracy bull**** all over the place.  Goddamn man.

Here are some shocking news from the UK. Perhaps @Warts 'n' all can confirm:

Posted Images

The problem with China is that there is little data that can be independently verified.  All we have to go on is eye-witness accounts of people who have been there and more importantly an examination of the effect that China has had on the west and on the US in particular over the last 25-30 years.   

People that I worked with around 25 years ago are the ones that alerted/educated me as to what the Chinese seemed to be up to.  Since then we have had several administrations starting with Bush Sr. that have ignored the warning signs and sold out the ordinary people of the US and the west in exchange for more profits.  Many folks have been warning about China since the 90's in some official circles , but those opinions were very unpopular (and harmful to careers) due (one assumes) to the above mentioned profit motive. 

What am certain is noticed by many readers here is that (what has happened with regular frequency in the 20+ years of these BF forums) when folks are losing an argument, they resort to making their arguments into personal attacks rather than finding better arguments.  When one does that one has lost.

In any case, it's unlikely that anyone here will have their minds changed by anything anyone says.  General chat forums like this are the equivalent of a bunch of old fogies sitting around a cafe or pub expounding on their world views.  Time will tell who was correct.  Either Trump will win or lose in 7 months.  China will have to make reparations and have their economy slowed down, or they will bounce back and overtake the US in the next few years.  All we are doing here is speculating for entertainment.  

 

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2 hours ago, SimpleSimon said:

Even the idea that the virus emerged from the wild-animal trade in China being a uniquely Chinese thing is a big pot-kettle-black.

I don't know anything about that trade, but having been taken to a rural "wet market" where dogs and other non-identifiables are being BBQ'd, live animals wandering around getting slaughtered in unhygenic circumstances etc., it was easy to believe that nasty things could come out of that sort of environment.

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Posted (edited)

If I read it once or maybe a million times, China has a very long view on geopolitics. And they don't care much about their people within the context of that long view. “A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic." (- Guess who?) As long as the Party minimizes misery on its people so as they don't revolt, the Party will keep the long view intact.  Even if they did, the masses would be mowed down. I am not a fan of the Chinese Communist Party. Does that mean in 2020 they were aiming to tank the West's economy. Who knows. It's too early to tell. But it's not unfair to start asking questions and debating the possibility. If this was a mistake on China's part or did not come out of their labs, they will fess up and allow for a full international investigation to prove it. Otherwise they it will look bad for the PRC. I am keeping an open mind. It's a axiom in situations like this that you analyze intentions and capabilities in balance. 

Kevin

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3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

If I read it once or maybe a million times, China has a very long view on geopolitics.

Exactly.  And the long view has one critical component that is more important than all others... regime survival.  No point in planning 30 years out if the members of the Politburo are hanging from the lampposts in year 10.

From a historian standpoint, I have incredible respect for the Chinese Communist Party (respect ≠ admiration).  They have taken one of the most difficult to govern plots of land and successfully ruled it for 30 years with a political system that has almost universally been tossed into the bin by the rest of the world.  As for as authoritarian regimes go, they are in a class of their own. 

But inherently they are kept in power through repression of its peoples, colonial style exploitation of lessor off countries, and dysfunctional relationships with its near peers.  It's not a recipe for long term stability, yet so far they've beaten the odds.  At some point they'll lose. 

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

As long as the Party minimizes misery on its people so as they don't revolt, the Party will keep the long view intact.  Even if they did, the masses would be mowed down.

The problem with large scale overt action is that it starts a death spiral.  Such activities create economic disruption of a variety of sorts, which increases the incentive for the people to revolt/resist, which if met with more force means more economic disruption and so on.  Therefore, for the sake of survival they have pursued a policy of minimizing the potential of a serious uprising by ensuring economic benefits.

Most likely case is the virus is natural.  It's happened multiple times before there and elsewhere, so by far the most plausible.  Next is an unintentional screwup at a lab.  Chernobyl was not deliberate either, right?  Waaaaaay down in third place is the Chinese government deliberately released the virus for reasons that are completely contrary to long established Party thinking.  Very close fourth is some other country, like Russia, planted it in China to reset both China and the West.  And a tie for fourth... aliens.  I wouldn't put it past those big headed, gray skinned sneaky bastards.

Steve

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8 hours ago, Erwin said:

What am certain is noticed by many readers here is that (what has happened with regular frequency in the 20+ years of these BF forums) when folks are losing an argument, they resort to making their arguments into personal attacks rather than finding better arguments.  When one does that one has lost.

Hmm.  You have described your behavior here quite accurately, even though I am sure you did not intend to do so.  Or do you not understand that you made a rather bold claim and have so far refused to even acknowledge the challenge, despite at least one person (moi) not making it personal?  In your case, that's why you lost the argument.

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In any case, it's unlikely that anyone here will have their minds changed by anything anyone says. 

Not true.  What is true is you won't change any minds if you don't defend your hypothesis.

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All we are doing here is speculating for entertainment. 

Speak for yourself.  I'm here to exchange information and points of view with people from all over the world.  As imperfect medium as it might be, it's not nothing.  As for entertainment, that's what Netflix is for.  At least for now.  Once things open back up I'll get back to learning how to curl.  I was just starting to not totally suck at it before the lockdown.

Steve

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2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Once things open back up I'll get back to learning how to curl.  I was just starting to not totally suck at it before the lockdown.

Steve

I am sure the spouse could suggest some forms of housework as stand in practice items.  :D  

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Hey all, 

Came to check up on this forum on the off chance that my fantasy Combat Mission: OPLAN 5029 was going to be announced and we'd finally get to see the PLA in action in this series.

I don't normally post here, I *think* my last post was about 9-10 years ago, but after reading through this thread and seeing some strong opinions and predictions about China, I thought I'd throw in my two cents, as Americans like to say.

I've lived in China for 8 years, speak Mandarin up to HSK level 4-5, and work in manufacturing. I've sat through this whole COVID-19 epidemic, since it first broke here and then spread across the world.

Some of the perceptions about the government here and how they go about their business are pretty laughable, and some are on point, but mostly everyone is viewing society here totally through a western lens, though that's hardly limited to this forum.

 

There seems to be a perception that

1. The virus killed far more people here than is being admitted, even orders of magnitude greater, and that its being covered up to prevent some sort of mass revolt.

2. Society here just needs 'a kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down'; that once the economy goes belly up, there will be some sort of mass revolt.

3. The evil CPC will do absolutely anything to maintain that grip on power, including the mass murder of their own citizens.

4. People are suppressed and given the chance, they will overthrow the tyrannical regime and install a flourishing democracy.

5. My favourite - China has a long view on geopolitics - LOL.

 

The virus could wreck the economy here - there are already warning signs. I've been inundated with offers from factories who have bought PPE manufacturing equipment en masse in a desperate attempt to stay afloat. One insole manufacturer I know has totally collapsed and is relying completely on manufacturing KN95 masks, but due to the recent horror stories of faulty equipment creating yet another gaffe for China, as of two weeks ago only those suppliers on a whitelist can export items marked as medical supplies, regardless of whether or not their factory has all of the ISO standards, FDA registration, EU CE certification, etc. Everyone is scrambling to get on the list. 

China has a mountain of unregulated 'black' financial institutions, massive SME debt, and the situation looks grim to say the least. I read a news article here that had the People's Bank of China warning there is a small chance of depression. That's big news, when they admit something like that, it means the risk is pretty real.

The virus news broke just before the spring festival, which if you don't know is THE major holiday for Chinese and results in the largest human migration in the world every January/February. I was heading up to my wife's family in another city when the news was breaking. While I was there the nationwide lockdown came into place, though for different provinces the rules were slightly different.

Many people in the west seem to think that because China has a huge population and an untrustworthy Government, then by default they simply must have been ravaged and are lying about it. 

Firstly, the virus did affect an area with a large population - the city of Wuhan in Hubei province. Hubei itself has a population about the same as the UK. But it didn't appear everywhere at once, infecting droves of people. It appeared in one place and was noticed by local doctors. China's healthcare system is pretty turd in many ways compared to the west, but its not total rubbish (unless you are talking about traditional chinese medicine, but thats a rant for another day). We all know the story about the doctors that were arrested and accused of spreading rumours on social media. To understand this you have to step back and not straw man every action taken as indicative of the evil government. They were not silenced by the ruling elite, but rather the local police station/government who were following the rules laid out. Pretty stupid and draconian rules obviously, but from their point of view its the same as the rules Captain Crozier apparently broke leading to his dismissal.

Once the actual realisation came through that the doctors were right, action was taken pretty rapidly, though not as fast as we now know could have been taken. Did the government deliberately withhold info from the WHO and the West, allowing the virus to spread so their evil plan could be hatched? Probably not. More likely they didn't realise the scale this was going to be and so nuking their own economy by locking down the country was probably not what came to mind when they had 50 or so people with some weird new type of flu.

When they did fire the pistol though, they did it properly. Remember that this is not the first time that they have had an epidemic, even within the last 20 years. The leading Doctor, the 'hero' of SARS, Zhong Nan Shan, quickly came on TV telling the public and government what to do. Everything was shut down. Existing checkpoints at the entrances to residential areas and roads where manned with people checking everyones temperature. Contact tracing was heavily utilised so that everyone who came into contact with an infected person was contacted and tested. Did China use armed force to suppress people? Yes, but no more than American Police use armed force to suppress rule breakers every day. 

They got on top of things pretty quickly. Are the numbers accurate? Lmao of course not, but mostly for many of the same reasons numbers in good-guy western countries are not accurate. Of course, there IS the possibility that scores more people died, and there are hints here on social media that the numbers are higher - one truck driver admitting in a local news street-interview he'd been delivering about 3000 urns a day for two weeks to a local crematorium in preparation for the Qing Ming festival (the annual festival for honouring the dead). This awkward gaffe was quickly wiped off of Weibo, the Chinese social media platform, but not before millions saw it. Where the masses enraged, demanding the overthrow of the tyrannical regime? No. Most people shrugged it off as pretty normal - of course the official figures are inaccurate.

 

This is quickly turning into a huge post that most people won't bother reading so I'll leave it here for now and if anyone has any questions, they can ask in the forum, and I'll respond.

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Just to add on a part two

 

The perception that mass unemployment will start a chain reaction of events resulting in the overthrow and possibly even murder of leaders is pretty far from reality. Your average Chinese person in the street does not look at America, or western countries, with envious eyes at our political system, and yearn for the chance to have a government that they can have voting participation in. What Chinese people think of their government is polar opposite of what westerners think. You cannot underestimate the effect of non-stop nationalistic propaganda on how people here view the world. Many, many people have an us-vs-them mentality, especially against the west, and in particular against the USA. The CCP is widely seen as the movement of the people that has successfully lifted a billion people out of poverty, despite the evil bullying tactics of the western countries who secretly want to control and dominate China. This isn't some fringe rubbish, this is what MOST people think. I can count on one hand the amount of people I've met openly critical of the system they have in place, despite living here for nearly a decade.

If you want to see what Chinese think about democracy, have a look at their reaction to the Hong Kong protests. They are universally regarded as traitors by the vast majority of people. 

Mass unemployment in China will never be blamed on the system they have in place - it can and it certainly will be entirely blamed on foreign countries bullying China. It cannot be understated how much China and society here truly blames the west for all its perceived ills. Most people are so sure about western countries and their evil plans because as far as they are concerned, within what is to them 'recent' history, the 8 nation alliance tried to cut China into pieces. As I'm sat here typing this there is a drama on the TV in my living room right now about this very topic. It is drummed into everyone from a young age, along with the daily dose of anti Japanese propaganda. Turn on any TV at any time of any day in China and you will find a goofy ww2 drama depicting 'Japanese Devils' raping yet another village, while the noble inhabitants fight back with their farming tools, kung fu and red flags.

Tiananmen Square is always portrayed as a mass movement for democracy in the west. Perhaps the leaders in the square on the megaphones were shouting democratic slogans, and trying to use the opportunity to really make changes for democratic reform, but I have met and spoken to people who were there, who are quite open about their participation, and who have all uniformly told me that most people were trying to change the corruption that was endemic. In many people's perceptions, those changes came. That may sound crazy but thats the experience I have had from people I've met.

 

If I could compare this to an analogous example, its a bit like assuming that most Americans secretly want to throw the US constitution away and change their basic system of government, that most Americans agree that the growth and power of the US economy has prevailed in spite of, not because of the system of governance, and that once the economy goes to sh*t they will overthrow their leaders and adopt a more China-like style of governance.

 

Just to make it clear here - these views are not my own. I am simply pointing out what many people think here in China, as far as my experience goes.

 

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Part Three

 

Another example of Mainland Chinese views on democracy - look at the public perception of Taiwan.

 

Most people here agree Taiwan has a great economy, and enjoys freedoms unparalleled in the rest of China. Are Chinese jealous, demanding that the Republic of China Government be brought back over to rule in place of the PRC? Hell no. Many people think Taiwan should be forcibly retaken and the leaders tried as traitors. Taiwan independence? Forget it. Cai Yingwen is portrayed as a mere puppet of the USA and Japan, who should be executed for her treachery for ignoring the  '1992 consensus'. 

Is this because the Chinese are brainwashed? Most likely, but its interesting to see some of the most nationalistic people are those that have actually travelled around and even lived abroad. As the Hong Kong democracy protests were swinging around last year, clashes between Hong Kongers and mainlanders outside of China were reported in nearly every western country. "Lenin walls", set up by pro-democracy supporters, were torn down by angry mainlanders even in my own home city. 

Despite having access to all the freedom-loving western world and its media, many people still have these strong nationalistic views.

The chances of the leadership being blamed when the economy goes downhill, especially when this will be accompanied in the news by trade war quotes from Trump, and the world economy in general goes downhill, are zip. Not going to happen. The biggest threat to Xi JinPing is the now small chance (after his huge anit-corruption drive wiping out his opponents) of a factional challenge. Not gonna happen. Bo Xilai is in prison. Xi has been made president for life.

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Part Four

I think what we can take from all this, what is most important above all, is that there *needs* to be a Combat Mission game with the PLA in it.

If battlefront needs help with translations, or anything, I can help.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, roadiemullet said:

Part Four

I think what we can take from all this, what is most important above all, is that there *needs* to be a Combat Mission game with the PLA in it.

If battlefront needs help with translations, or anything, I can help.

Thanks for the post and yeah read the whole thing. ;) Very interesting.  Some of it I can understand.  Considering the history it isn't a far fetched view of the west.  The British empire was largely financed by the opium trade I'd be pretty skeptical of the west myself.

 

Want to see how wacky we can get?  Enjoy

 

Edited by sburke
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Just listening to the first few minutes of that reminds me why I never read or watch American news media. So many loaded statements. Just like the Chinese media haha.

'People being bundled into police vans to be taken god knows where' - Ummm probably either to the local police station or taken home, but not before having their ears chewed for breaking quarantine. The 'god knows where' bit is just tapped on the end, as though those people were never seen again.

As for infected people being locked in their homes and left to starve - while I have no doubt that happened, it wasn't exactly policy. More like that person fell through the net. Everyone had a choice if they tested positive for the test - go to the quarantine centre or choose to stay at home, but if you stay at home you must agree not to leave your apartment (most people live in apartments). A paper tag was placed over the door - loose enough to allow the door to open to allow food deliveries, but the deal was if that seal is broken, then you gotta go to the quarantine centre, whether you like it or not.

These measures are awful, but they aren't quite the picture that is painted. Infected people aren't being sent to a field and shot in the back of the head after being picked up by the gestapo.

You may have seen in the news the videos of people being properly barred in their homes, with a metal bar welded over their door. This kind of stuff did go off and its completely disgusting, but the reaction among the public here (this was not some secret that leaked to the west, it was shown on primetime news as evidence that the government is taking care of the situation) was pretty supportive. I don't agree with this, but many people here do as its for the collective good.

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Back to the people starving bit - I don't know about this situation so I can't explain what happened, but for those stuck in their apartments in quarantine, a volunteer delivery service for food was established, and given the deserved praise from the public similar to the praise that the NHS in my country and the healthcare services in other countries are getting. 

 

All this defending China haha man I sound like some kind of shill. Seriously though, there are so many wrong perceptions in the west.

 

Chinese are people too. They aren't all communist robots who have no emotion to people dying around them. They do have some totally skewed world views, are really, really nationalistic, view their country as the pinnacle of civilisation, and the centre of the world (the Chinese name for China, 中国, literally means 'Middle Country'), but they still do care. Local police aren't stone faced Stasi waiting to kidnap people off the street, they are just regular people like anyone doing a job.

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There is one more thing I'll add on to these posts as I'm sat at my computer,

so Part Five,

 

The idea that the government is playing some long term geopolitical game.

This has to be one of the most repeated descriptions of Chinese governance that I've seen/heard in the west, to the point where its been picked up by the state media here and is repeated as though that were the case all along. Its total rubbish, and ties in perfectly with their propaganda about China being older and wiser than these 'new' powers in the west. Total drivel. 

Yes, Deng XiaoPing had a public policy for China to "bide its time". Yes, the government does make plans and targets for decades in the future. Of course, with no annoying and pesky elections and risk of losing power to some other group for 5 years, such plans can be made. But so does every other country in the world. Governments make plans all the time for actions that will be taken well beyond the current administrations tenure. Its normal.

Whenever there is some kind of international incident, the response from the government is often pretty slow (until very recently that is, as in the last few years we've had a new group of aggressive spokespeople giving daily press briefings - Zhao Li Jian is one of them, the guy promoting the conspiracy theory that the US army brought the virus to Wuhan). Often responses are given in cryptic idioms, usually 4-character 成语 Cheng yu, which imply that the speaker is well read and clever in their speech. (Some Cheng Yu refer to classical stories. Imagine giving some Bible chapter reference as an idiom, and you're in the right area). The problem is that Cheng Yu can often be bent to mean anything. Mao ZeDong loved to spout them all the time, so did Deng, but most of all, Xi JinPing says them all the time. Just watch a speech and listen to the amount of idioms peppering his output that could mean literally anything, but regarded as a wonderful pearls of wisdom by the media. 

The slow response is not due to some master checkmate move being planned. Its nearly always due to the fact that they don't know what to do. When in doubt, do nothing. Not exactly genius. Despite this the amount of gaffes the Chinese pull is pretty staggering when you pay attention. Recently in the province of Guangdong, where I live, a province-wide roundup of Africans took place and enforced quarantine, even though immigration was halted well over a month ago now and before that anyone coming into the country had to stay in two weeks quarantine anyway. Unfortunately, the racist perception that Africans make up a large body of illegal immigrants unaccounted for who might be some reservoir of the disease (and taking into account the propaganda drive that the Virus is not from China, was only detected here by the excellent Doctors, and comes from 'foreigners'), meant that suddenly the provincial government decided to round them all up - going to their homes and ordering them to a local quarantine hotel where they had to pay to stay, but not bothering to quarantine their Chinese or non-African family members in the same apartment building. This insane policy has backfired and China is eating humble pie at the moment as African governments have demanded an explanation, with the governments of Nigeria and Kenya summoning the Chinese ambassadors. All Africans have been released and since been visited with bouquets of flowers and bags of oranges - I'm not joking you can look this up.

China fumbles the ball all the time. Part of the problem is that those people in power and in the arms of government are products of the education system here, which I won't go into as these posts have gone well off track from the epidemic topic. 

 

Suffice it to say that this idea that they are the puppet masters behind some long term calculated plan is pretty funny when you actually live here and see how things function.

 

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Apparently smokers are less likely to be hospitalized. It increasingly looks like it's the human body doing the dirty work not so much the virus itself.
 

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Few of those hospitalized with the coronavirus are smokers, and researchers are trying to understand why, according to VICE.

One hypothesis is that nicotine, which has anti-inflammatory properties, may interfere with the way that COVID-19 causes an overreaction of the immune system.

The hypothesis comes from Konstantinos Farsalinos, a cardiologist in Greece who focuses on tobacco-use reduction. Farsalinos noticed that few COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized in China were smokers, though about half of men in the country smoke.

Farsalinos and colleagues wrote a new paper available as a preprint and scheduled to be published in Internal and Emergency Medicine. They found that among 13 studies in China with nearly 6,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, the rate of smokers ranged from 1.4% to 12.6%. No studies recorded e-cigarette use.

“The results were remarkably consistent across all studies and were recently verified in the first case series of COVID-19 cases in the U.S.,” the authors wrote, calling for an “urgent investigation.”

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200430/smokers-hospitalized-less-often-for-covid-19

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17 hours ago, Erwin said:

The problem with China is that there is little data that can be independently verified.  All we have to go on is eye-witness accounts of people who have been there and more importantly an examination of the effect that China has had on the west and on the US in particular over the last 25-30 years.   

People that I worked with around 25 years ago are the ones that alerted/educated me as to what the Chinese seemed to be up to.  Since then we have had several administrations starting with Bush Sr. that have ignored the warning signs and sold out the ordinary people of the US and the west in exchange for more profits.  Many folks have been warning about China since the 90's in some official circles , but those opinions were very unpopular (and harmful to careers) due (one assumes) to the above mentioned profit motive. 

What am certain is noticed by many readers here is that (what has happened with regular frequency in the 20+ years of these BF forums) when folks are losing an argument, they resort to making their arguments into personal attacks rather than finding better arguments.  When one does that one has lost.

In any case, it's unlikely that anyone here will have their minds changed by anything anyone says.  General chat forums like this are the equivalent of a bunch of old fogies sitting around a cafe or pub expounding on their world views.  Time will tell who was correct.  Either Trump will win or lose in 7 months.  China will have to make reparations and have their economy slowed down, or they will bounce back and overtake the US in the next few years.  All we are doing here is speculating for entertainment.  

 

Im on quora alot. I noticed when I debate people if they cant debate without getting personal and have no good argument they almost always run to insults or ad hominem attacks. its almost always a surefire sign your opponents got nothing.  As you you noted youre already fighting a losing battle on that.

What did people alert you the chinese seemed to be  up to 20 years ago though?  I missed that.

What I think is alarming and shocking and most Americans seem to not care is most of our media is now censored by the chinese communist party!  Look at the game contest where a winner held a #free HK thing up. blizzard took his winnings and banned him for life! because chinese pressure.  In top gun 1 maverick has a  taiwan cruise patch.  The patch has been erased in top gun 2.   The reason it made no sense in Red Dawn 2 that N Korea had occupied the US was because it didnt.  it was supposed to be china but they flipped out and wouldnt show it in china, so we changed it because we want money.

our own greed is slowly letting a avowed adversary into our abode, and telling us what to do

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Posted (edited)

I think the best part about roadie's post is how it highlights how widespread nonsense and disinformation about China is in the west. To me it's incredible because all of it is shameless repetition of canned arguments and propaganda literally recycled from the decades of the Cold War and now combined with a crude sort of euphemistic racism against Asians. The idealist notion of the 80s that a free internet would become some kind of antidote for lies and disinformation rather than a highway for those things has been rather clearly sunk. 

The most important bit people should consider is the one that in fact there's popular support for the Communists and whether or not its a clear majority or not is irrelevant. The Communist Party has tied itself successfully to improvements in the quality of life in China because these are improvements that they have legitimately brought to the country. There were consequences to this and the improvement has not been universal but the idea that student protests are about to explode into a mass overthrow of the Communist Party is unrealistic. Not to mention the idea that Chinese Leadership is hatching some long term plan to take over the world. Classic demagoguery and nothing more. 

roadie perhaps you can add. My impression of Chinese leadership is that it is highly decentralized and for the most part Beijing does not normally concern itself in rural or regional affairs. Federalism is present but its resources are rather limited and this goes further to explain failures (of any kind) in the Chinese response to the virus than HURR COMMUNIST REPRESSION does. 

Edited by SimpleSimon
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1 minute ago, SimpleSimon said:

I think the best part about roadie's post is how it highlights how widespread nonsense and disinformation about China is in the west. To me it's incredible because all of it is shameless repetition of canned arguments and propaganda literally recycled from the decades of the Cold War and now combined with a crude sort of euphemistic racism against Asians. 

The most important bit people should consider is the one that in fact there's popular support for the Communists and whether or not its a clear majority or not is irrelevant. The Communist Party has tied itself successfully to improvements in the quality of life in China because these are improvements that they have legitimately brought to the country. There were consequences to this and the improvement has not been universal but the idea that student protests are about to explode into a mass overthrow of the Communist Party is unrealistic. Not to mention the idea that Chinese Leadership is hatching some long term plan to take over the world. Classic demagoguery and nothing more. 

roadie perhaps you can add. My impression of Chinese leadership is that for the most part, it is highly decentralized and for the most part Beijing does not normally concern itself in rural or regional affairs. Federalism is present but its resources are rather limited and this goes further to explain failures (of any kind) in the Chinese response to the virus than HURR COMMUNIST REPRESSION does. 

speaking of racism against asians and stuff....

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-43081218

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2133558/racist-chinese-spring-festival-gala-tv-show-causes-consternation

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/15/chinas-racism-is-wrecking-its-success-in-africa/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/china-fails-to-stop-racism-against-africans-over-covid-19

https://abcnews.go.com/International/foreigners-black-people-unwelcome-parts-china-amid-covid/story?id=70182204

but its just against blacks you say.. and oh no here comes Mr Whataboutism! "Yes! It is I! Sirwhataboutery! What about American racism! you hypocrite! you just hate chinese people!"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-japan-specialreport/special-report-why-chinas-film-makers-love-to-hate-japan-idUSBRE94O0CJ20130525

https://shanghaiist.com/2013/03/08/review_of_beijings_most_racist_restaurant/

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/26/asia/china-japan-kimono-intl/index.html

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every side does ridiculous stuff.  the Chinese government if nothing else is no victim though its citizenry is.    Thats kinda  the problem since they all know theyll disappear  if they dont say positive stuff and you cannot put anti government stuff out there.  And sure we know  there isnt going to be any revolution of students there.. because we and the students know theyd be gunned down by the PLA. Look at trump in the us.  you say theres no doubt theres support for the CCP but of course  noone knows how much. One definitely can say theres support in America for trump.  I can also tell you his supporters are a minority, just a very loud one.  Id also add hes probably one of the most hated presidents ever by far.  Yet by your logic since some Americans support him America loves trump. 

 

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4 hours ago, roadiemullet said:

Zhao Li Jian is one of them, the guy promoting the conspiracy theory that the US army brought the virus to Wuhan

The Chinese Ambassador to the UK Liu Xiaoming also was only a few days ago speaking on the BBC denying Huhan China was the source and pointing the finger at the French as the source of the infection.

He also denies there are no camps in Xinjiang holding Uighurs despite all the evidence to the contrary.

Also what was interesting was how quickly it spread from China to Iran suggesting close contacts between the two esp the Iranian higher ups who came down with Covid-19 in quick sucession.

Edited by Wicky
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Posted (edited)

I find it sort of strange that anyone would be taken by surprise at the idea that racism happens in China or that Chinese leaders are capable of lies. I guess since Americans are so frequently blindsided by these realizations they think everyone else would be too. 

17 minutes ago, Sublime said:

every side does ridiculous stuff

Indeed. 

Edited by SimpleSimon
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7 hours ago, roadiemullet said:

Came to check up on this forum on the off chance that my fantasy Combat Mission: OPLAN 5029 was going to be announced and we'd finally get to see the PLA in action in this series.

I've lived in China for 8 years, speak Mandarin up to HSK level 4-5, and work in manufacturing. I've sat through this whole COVID-19 epidemic, since it first broke here and then spread across the world.  

Yes, for Oplan 5029!!  Thanks for your posts on China.  I read every word and found them very interesting.  I hope you stick around and post more often.  

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8 hours ago, roadiemullet said:

Just to make it clear here - these views are not my own. I am simply pointing out what many people think here in China, as far as my experience goes.

Thanks for all that!  Like others, I read every word you wrote.

I don't see anything you said that is incompatible with the scholarly reports I've read about what's going on in China now and generally.  When the virus started spreading I heard many interviews with infectious disease officials from the West, who were involved with the Chinese response in some way, say they thought China was doing all the right things to contain the virus.  Unlike with SARS.  As you said, a healthcare's system can be crap for day-to-day stuff, but yet do well towards achieving a narrow goal when properly directed and resourced.  The opposite can also be true, as the US is finding out. 

I'm glad you pointed out the under reporting of deaths issue.  It's going on in the West as well, at the very least because it's normal for that to happen.  It is why the CDC in the US takes a couple of years to finalize the seasonal flu numbers despite the fact that we know the flu season comes every single year.  There have also been examples of deliberate under reporting due to political interference.  To think China's numbers are going to be superior to the West's is just stupid.  So trying to make some huge international discussion point from this says more about the politics of the people pointing fingers more than the ones being pointed out.

In my musings above you'll note that I never once suggested that even in the worst circumstances that the current Chinese system of government would be replaced.  At the most it would be replaced with something that was basically a change in name only, never something even remotely resembling a democracy.  As I've always understood the Chinese people, when the government fails in some spectacular way the people seem to be prone to blaming individuals and not the system itself.  X official in Y position becomes the target for anger, not the fact that the Chinese political system is inherently responsible for setting standards and conditions.

What this means is Party officials in China are not so much concerned about the collapse of the State as much as their own personal exposure to negative responses of the people.  For more recent times, this generally means the person the people blame is removed from their position of power at a minimum, sometimes imprisoned, and occasionally put to death.  The system itself is not really questioned.  As you say, the people seem to be fine with that.

So when I say that the Party is concerned about what would come from hundreds of millions of unemployed workers, it's more akin to a Western corporate officer or manager worried about keeping their job more than it is worry about their company going bankrupt.  At least that's the way I've thought of it for quite some time now.

Put another way, each individual living a cushy life at the top of an organization understandably wants to remain there.  This is Human Nature.  The specifics of doing so varies widely around the world and within each society, but the bottom line is the same for Chinese Party officials.  They like being on top and they want to stay there.  Mass unemployment would put that at risk even if the system itself is likely to survive it.  Ergo, top Chinese officials have zero incentive to deliberately tank their economy.

Steve

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