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Erwin

THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM

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36 minutes ago, Holien said:

Please read the link provided to understand why those two gents are not the chaps to be informing Government health policy as they can't get the basics right!

0.4% death rate vs 0.1% doesn't sound too much different but what that is saying is it 4000 people will die compared to 1000 in a million people. Say 83  million Germans let's open up and let it run free, 332,000 people die, that is not going to have a great economic impact. 

Germany might have kept it to 0.4% but that is through test and trace and lock down which those muppets you have quoted would not have done...

Will have a look. Thanks for that.

Yes I agree. It ain´t over yet. We need to stay on top of the numbers to avoid getting into a second wave. At least right now R values for Germany based on BRICS look promissing (look here: https://gitlab.com/simm/covid19/secir/-/wikis/Report) (BRICS), Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research

Germany.png

Additionally we don´t have excess mortality over seasonal flu based on the Euromomo numbers (https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country), but Spain, Belgium, UK, Italy really look grim. That corona virus strain certainly is far more aggressive than the seasonal Influenza virus.

Stay healthy!

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Ultradave said:

There isn't any in the morning when we go on old people hours. LUCKILY, I had just bought a big family sized package just before all the stay at home orders. We still have some of that.

There's now lots of TP in the stores near me, but NO CHARMIN(!) - so desperate situation due to pandemic really hitting home where it hurts (or at least sore).  :wacko:

I agree that Covid could keep us very nervous until end of the year (at least).  My main concern is that I could be asymptomatic and unknowingly bring infection to an at risk person.  So, no visits to any elderly person till Covid is gone for sure... and that could mean 2021.

Regarding the idea that China will suffer as much as everyone else if countries stop trading and there would be no advantage in them being behind a "Pearl Harbor-like" bio attack, there is an obvious argument to the contrary.  We in the west have a lot further to fall to become like China where the majority live in third world conditions.  Right now the west is significantly ahead of China in terms of average quality of life for ordinary folks.  If China and (say) the US are diminished to (say) zero, that is not an equally bad outcome.  That is a victory for China.  China would then get to start on an equal footing with the west and could well outrace us for dominance. 

We know that China plays the "long game".  China can afford an economic (or even a hot) war of attrition way better than we in the west can.  

Edited by Erwin

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3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Nope, they reserved a lot of emergency beds (ICUs) in germany for covid (50%) and had to sent staff home because elective surgery practically was forbidden. The covid patients never materialized. They now reduce this to 25% reservation rate for covid patients and open up hospitals for normal surgical procedures again. So these guys are spot on at least for what is happening in germany. If you look at the numbers of early tests in the country you find that in a covid hotspot area (Heinsberg) 15% of the people were positive for antibodies (were already exposed to the virus) with death rates at about 0,4%.

The thing is it depends very much where you are. In my daughter's hospital they currently have almost 500 patients and have had to convert entire floors solely to care for them, in addition to creating a couple extra ICUs. They were able to do this and haven't been overwhelmed but this is a big hospital with deep pockets. They have discharged so far over 1500 patients who have recovered.

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17 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

The thing is it depends very much where you are. In my daughter's hospital they currently have almost 500 patients and have had to convert entire floors solely to care for them, in addition to creating a couple extra ICUs. They were able to do this and haven't been overwhelmed but this is a big hospital with deep pockets. They have discharged so far over 1500 patients who have recovered.

Right on.

Where I am we had our first patient test positive for COVID-19 a week ago.  And that ONE person wasn't showing signs, but had been tested because of being near someone in a different county who had.  We have two hospitals with all beds free.  So I guess there's no pandemic :)

For those who don't understand what's going on from the nurse's standpoint, here's a good article that ran a couple of weeks ago.  A traveling nurse moved from a fairly normal hospital in a largely unaffected area to something that sounds more like a warzone:

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/20/news/portland/this-traveling-nurse-fought-coronavirus-in-lewiston-her-next-stop-scares-her-more/

Another thought.  I've never once known someone to lose two relatives to the "flu" in the same month.  Just found out someone I know lost two cousins to COVID-19.  Anecdotal as it might be, it's not coincidental.  Not that it matters, as I understand it they were both on your patch of ground, UltraDave.

Steve

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22 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

The thing is it depends very much where you are. In my daughter's hospital they currently have almost 500 patients and have had to convert entire floors solely to care for them, in addition to creating a couple extra ICUs. They were able to do this and haven't been overwhelmed but this is a big hospital with deep pockets. They have discharged so far over 1500 patients who have recovered.

Yes it is highly variable from country to country. My wife returned from NY on 17th march with one of those last flights to germany and went directly into 14 days quarantine. Luckily she developed no symptoms.

The FT has a good site to have a worldwide overview about the numbers. Today they also integrated excess mortality. Here: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

 

A graphic with no description

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Erwin said:

Regarding the idea that China will suffer as much as everyone else if countries stop trading and there would be no advantage in them being behind a "Pearl Harbor-like" bio attack, there is an obvious argument to the contrary.  We in the west have a lot further to fall to become like China where the majority live in third world conditions.  Right now the west is significantly ahead of China in terms of average quality of life for ordinary folks.  If China and (say) the US are diminished to (say) zero, that is not an equally bad outcome.  That is a victory for China.  China would then get to start on an equal footing with the west and could well outrace us for dominance. 

We know that China plays the "long game".  China can afford an economic (or even a hot) war of attrition way better than we in the west can.  

No not so obvious.  Continuing to beat this drum off some rather strange notions as to what China can accept or not doesn't somehow make this conspiracy mongering valid.  Keep in mind China's gov't actually has a lot further to fall.  Tiananmen is not far out of their minds and draconian behavior eventually fails to keep a dissatisfied population in check.  There was an open question as to whether the military was gonna back the party in suppressing the demonstrations.  There is a very strong reason why China has tried to wipe all reference to it from China's history and why Hong Kong represents a far more serious threat to the rule of the CCP than many of us in the west realize.  Dissent is NOT something they can afford.

I may detest Trump, but dealing with him for me is a matter of our electoral process  I may gripe all I want, but at the end of the day our constitutional norms are more important to me than whether I agree with the current occupant of the White House.  I think and hope most Americans feel that way.  That is most definitely not the case in China.  China already has issues, if they don't deliver on economic growth there actually will be problems.  China's middle class has grown very fast over the last 2 decades and they have expectations on what life should be like for their kids.  You might want to consider going there and actually getting to know a few people if you are going to expound so much on their society.

Here this is where China really is - you are about a couple decades behind.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/chinas-giant-middle-class-is-still-growing-and-companies-want-in.html

https://chinapower.csis.org/china-middle-class/

Over the past several decades, China’s economic development has lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty and resulted in a burgeoning middle class. Middle class households typically have enough income to satisfy their primary needs – food, clothing, and shelter – with some disposable income left over for additional consumption and savings. In 2002, China’s middle class was only four percent of its population. A decade later, this number had climbed to 31 percent, constituting over 420 million people. China’s growing middle class presents an array of new economic opportunities, but also poses significant political and demographic challenges.

 

Edited by sburke

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6 hours ago, Erwin said:

Regarding the idea that China will suffer as much as everyone else if countries stop trading and there would be no advantage in them being behind a "Pearl Harbor-like" bio attack, there is an obvious argument to the contrary. 

It might be an obvious conspiracy theory argument, but it completely flops when it is squared against clearly established Chinese regime thinking.  I posted this two pages ago:

The most important thing for China's survival is keeping its manufacturing sector humming along.  Strategically, if the US and Europe stopped all trade with China (and I mean ALL trade) overnight their economy would collapse. And do you think the Communist Party would survive several hundred million unemployed men?  No, it wouldn't.  They know it and they know it very well.  The Communist Party has been concerned enough about dropping to single digit growth, not to mention negative.  The reason the Chinese system of Communism has survived while (nearly all) have died out is because they are extremely pragmatic.  They are not suicidal.  Therefore, I doubt there is any scenario where they would see a deliberate release of something like COVID-19 into the environment.  So there's a million things more likely to be true than the Chinese deliberately releasing COVID-19.

Quote

We in the west have a lot further to fall to become like China where the majority live in third world conditions.  Right now the west is significantly ahead of China in terms of average quality of life for ordinary folks.  If China and (say) the US are diminished to (say) zero, that is not an equally bad outcome.  That is a victory for China.  China would then get to start on an equal footing with the west and could well outrace us for dominance. 

This is completely divorced from reality.  Although it could be argued that the West has a lot further to fall than China, that's thinking in a vacuum.  China has less than 100 years of (recent) experience with a stable, centralized concept of governance.  Their hold on power is by force and therefore also brittle.  Western countries have hundreds of years of continual experience with stability.  Even when stability is upset, such as the world wars, it is quickly restored with most of the same elites right back in positions of power.  The people at the top of China, who are living very well BTW, have no such illusions they would fare well in a revolutionary environment.  The threshold for their grip on power dissolving is vastly lower than it is for the West.

Since there are no sports going on, let me use a sports analogy :)  The top players for the NBA make tons of money and have tons of future opportunities beyond their sporting career.  Those top players have a lot further to fall from injury, scandal, strikes, COVID-19 cancellation, etc. than the draft pick straight out of college.  Right?  But what happens if the top player has a couple of bad games?  Or even a bad season?  Probably nothing meaningful long term.  What happens if the rookie, who is only just starting to get court time, flubs up?  He's gone.  Likewise, would you say a top tier player who blew out his knee would be worse off than a rookie with a similar injury?  The former would likely be living in a mansion while the latter might have to go back to living with his parents.  Relative distance to fall isn't really the most important factor.

Quote

We know that China plays the "long game".  China can afford an economic (or even a hot) war of attrition way better than we in the west can.  

It would be interesting if you could point to a large body of work that would back up that assertion.  I doubt you can.

What China can survive better than the West is a minor war of annoyance with the West.  Industrial espionage, cyber sabotage, etc. are all fine provided the West doesn't suffer or retaliate too much.  It could even be argued that for the last 30 years China has been waging a very successful low level war against the West and winning.  Which is why I do support the notion of being very tough on China.  It's been too long in coming and it's one of the points I agree with the Trump Admin on.  I just don't agree that incompetent, knee-jerk, ignorant behavior designed for short term personal gain is the best way to achieve the stated goals.

Steve

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Article about China's vulnerabilities to something like COVID-19 and why they would absolutely not have brought this on deliberately:

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinese-communist-party

"Yet fears of social unrest are persistent. Leaders share concerns over the party’s vulnerability in light of China’s economic slowdown in recent years and public anger over issues such as corruption and environmental threats. "

and:

"China’s economic growth, which has slowed since its breakneck, double-digit growth in the early 2000s, has also been a point of concern for policymakers, who have called for reforms to increase domestic consumption and curb reliance on exports. In 2018, the Chinese economy grew by 6.6 percent, the slowest pace since 1990... Chinese stock market volatility in the summer of 2015 raised questions about the party’s ability to implement proper economic reforms, and U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s trade war that began in 2018 has exacerbated problems. Additionally, the massive accumulation of debt has some experts concerned about a looming debt crisis."

and:

"Separately, China’s aging population will test the party’s ability to provide for its people. [my note... this concern exists with the presumption of good economic activity, imagine what it is in an economic meltdown scenario] Estimates suggest that retirees could account for more than 40 percent of China’s population by 2050. Moreover, life expectancy has increased while the birth rate has declined. As a result, broadening insurance coverage has been a major initiative for the party, with healthcare expenditures increasing from 3.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1995 to 5 percent in 2016, according to World Bank data, and researchers project that number will rise to 9.1 percent by 2035. While medical insurance covers more than 90 percent of the population, coverage is often limited."

 

China might not have as far to fall (25% of the population has 1% of the wealth), but they have a couple hundred MILLION people ready to revolt if the economic drip feed dries up or gets shut off.  It's too soon to say what this fairly minor hit to their economy will do, but I can guarantee you that the Chinese government would never deliberately want to be asking itself.

Steve

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Another example of why it's pointless to argue death numbers one way or the other.  Florida is deliberately under reporting deaths, delaying the release of info, and blocking demographic info from being released by stopping the counties from independently reporting their data.  Guess the numbers from the field aren't meshing with the leadership's messaging about the scope of the problem:

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/

It will be interesting to see if this changes now that the whistle has been blown on the shenanigans.

Steve

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14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Maybe I shouldn't have got a degree in history.  To paraphrase Spinal Tap, it gives me too much f'n perspective ;)

Clearly, with the whole "Constellations in CM are upside down" debacle, you could probably have done with an Astronomy degree... which reminds me I need to run by you a great idea for CM3!

I feel we need a "Maintaining the Grooming Standard" button to repeatedly click... if players click fast enough they can power up the Grooming Standard bar & earn extra XP points for their units.

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9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

China might not have as far to fall (25% of the population has 1% of the wealth), but they have a couple hundred MILLION people ready to revolt if the economic drip feed dries up or gets shut off.  It's too soon to say what this fairly minor hit to their economy will do, but I can guarantee you that the Chinese government would never deliberately want to be asking itself.

Steve

Bingo. The memory of Tiananmen Square is still a fresh one, and Hong Kong just last year was proof that it was not merely a fluke. Communist Party leaders took the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union to heart more than many think, and have historically made decisions based on a realistic assessment of the measures necessary to retain control of the Chinese state and stabilize it when a crisis appears. In 2008 China's growth served as a factor to stabilize shocked markets a lot, and Chinese leaders did not take such a golden opportunity to role out a blitz of Marxist-Leninist rhetoric or launch a currency war. They had no intention of rescuing anyone, but they were not casting stones either. Reality is globalized markets present China with far too many great business opportunities for them to honestly want to sabotage any of that. 

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14 hours ago, sburke said:

You might want to consider going there and actually getting to know a few people if you are going to expound so much on their society.

Done & done... Hence my comments.

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8 hours ago, 37mm said:

Clearly, with the whole "Constellations in CM are upside down" debacle, you could probably have done with an Astronomy degree.

I suppose so, but I really don't believe in the whole Zodiac thing.

(and folks, THAT is how sarcasm works.  Not that a Knight needs a refresher course)

1 hour ago, SimpleSimon said:

Bingo. The memory of Tiananmen Square is still a fresh one, and Hong Kong just last year was proof that it was not merely a fluke. Communist Party leaders took the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union to heart more than many think, and have historically made decisions based on a realistic assessment of the measures necessary to retain control of the Chinese state and stabilize it when a crisis appears. In 2008 China's growth served as a factor to stabilize shocked markets a lot, and Chinese leaders did not take such a golden opportunity to role out a blitz of Marxist-Leninist rhetoric or launch a currency war. They had no intention of rescuing anyone, but they were not casting stones either. Reality is globalized markets present China with far too many great business opportunities for them to honestly want to sabotage any of that. 

The Chinese Communist Party is many things, but paranoid is not one of them.  Why?  Because their people really are out to get them ;)

One doesn't have to look back as far as Tiananmen to see why the Party is so concerned about keeping people distracted by meager material gains.  There are now regular incidents of significant (but still localized) challenges to authority that are being put down by force.  Like this one:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/03/14/chinese-police-say-they-used-minimum-tear-gas-disperse-fuming-parents-food-safety-scandal/

Who knows how many others we've not heard about.

Steve

 

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On 4/28/2020 at 10:27 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Where I live we had a different problem... interlopers.  Word got out that our grocery stores were well stocked after the first wave of panic buying.  So what happened?  Well, we started seeing an awful lot of unfamiliar faces in our stores.

Exact same thing happened here. All of a sudden I'm seeing a lot of out-of-state license plates on cars.

 

On 4/29/2020 at 12:27 AM, sburke said:

And no I won't watch the video.  I'd rather smear feces up my nose and snort real hard than listen to that gas bag.

That's too bad, it's a fun video. It's got frogs in it.

 

On 4/29/2020 at 2:13 AM, 37mm said:

As to a sense of perspective, although I may agree with your perspective (perhaps I would go further & say I consider "abortion" to be nothing more than recreational human sacrifice) I must point out how utterly useless "perspective" can be when used as a prediction tool.

Consider this "Conservative" article written in late February... we could probably agree it has a sense of perspective but, in hindsight, it seems to be somewhat lacking in predictive power.

I don't much care for predictions. My intended point was that maybe we should all just simmah down a bit. I see the article in question says much the same thing.

Every time I read an article about the internal British government procedures, I feel chills run down my spine. Thank goodness we got out of that horrible mess!

 

On 4/29/2020 at 1:19 PM, Battlefront.com said:

I heard a really interesting piece on the radio during the panic buying episodes.  It was about how unprepared "preppers" were and that they were among the panic shoppers.  The guy being interviewed has been studying them for a long time and explained why Human Nature gets in the way of the best planning.

Once upon a time, I was talking to a buddy of mine who is a rather rabid prepper type. He asked me once a hypothetical, "What's the one thing you need during the apocalypse?"
I answered, "Toilet paper, because if civilization is going to end, and we have to live without all of life's conveniences, then the one thing I want to be able to do is wipe my *ss."

Now, when I answered his question, it was back during the ebola virus scare, and I had no idea I was actually predicting the future. :D

 

IMG_20200429_175626.jpg

Anyway, I found some Charmin at a local store, so I'm officially no longer worried about anything. Life is good.

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Since Charmin is on our minds, and this is a military themed Forum, I present you this...

 

 

97396c2d420abebfd68130f7122d2d2082f6eeeb.jpg

Funny true story... when I walked into my usual grocery store during the panic buying, the paper products shelves were hit hard.  There was toilette paper still there on one of the shelves.  In fact, there was quite a bit of it, but only one brand.  I felt a little offended because it was the brand we buy.  Seems people were desperate to wipe their backsides with anything but what I normally use.  Not sure how to process that information.

Steve

 

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16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Florida is deliberately under reporting deaths, delaying the release of info, and blocking demographic info from being released by stopping the counties from independently reporting their data.

I would have been shocked, but I lived in Florida for eight years.

 

Kind+florida+man_1f1575_6961635.jpg

 

If you only knew how bad things really were...

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Erwin said:

Done & done... Hence my comments.

Then you really should know better.

And well just because I know it is coming might as well post this.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-he-has-evidence-coronavirus-came-from-a-chinese-lab-but-he-cant-reveal-it-232946854.html

And no, before we go there this was not a Pearl Harbor type sneak attack to undermine the West.  well not fully - the goal was... wait for it....

 Asked if he believed China was withholding information on the coronavirus so as to hurt his chances of being reelected, Trump said he didn’t want to “cast any dispersions [sic],” but added that “China would like to see Sleepy Joe Biden” elected.

“Well, China doesn’t want to see me elected and the reason is we’re getting billions and billions of dollars, many billions of dollars a month from China,” Trump said. “China never gave our country anything. China never gave us nothing.”

Pressed on whether he believed China had intentionally let the virus spread, Trump said it was a possibility.

 

Not sure what the billions he thinks we are getting is - he apparently still doesn't know who pays the tariffs.  He also doesn't seem to understand double negatives.

 

Meanwhile - on the other hand

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-intelligence-says-coronavirus-not-manmade-but-still-examining-chinese-lab-2020-04-30?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

The intel statement said the federal agencies concur “with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.”
“The IC will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”

Edited by sburke

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5 hours ago, Holman said:

[Mad Max]

WHO RUNS CHARMINTOWN??

[/Mad Max]

Ha!  My wife was listening to an oldies radio station yesterday, something I never do (got my iTunes like the kids these days), and the Tina Turner Thunderdome song came on.  I don't think I've heard it since the movie came out.  Which, unfortunately, means I'm an "oldie".  More depressing than COVID.

5 hours ago, sburke said:

And well just because I know it is coming might as well post this.

Yeah, I got a chuckle out of that.  Even if we presume he has even an ounce of credibility (which would be stupid), isn't it funny how he only listens (or half listens) to the intelligence agencies when it serves his own personal interests?  Maybe it is a Deep State double bluff?

Seriously though, I do not judge the credibility of the message by the messenger.  I do not doubt that the intelligence agencies are looking into the possibility of an accidental lab release in China.  I do not doubt there is some evidence to suggest that's what happened (which is probably what Trump was parroting).  I do not doubt that China has not been forthcoming about how the virus started to spread.  Not because the least credible person I know of said as much, but because it's already out in the public to some extent.  As unlikely as it might be (epidemiologists point out the virus in the lab was not active), the possibility should be explored before it is dismissed.

On a related note, did you know the long awaited remake of The Stand was due to come out this year?  So my theory is that Stephen King deliberately released the virus in order to push sales of his book (short term) and the new TV show (long term).  As far as theories go, it's about as plausible as China deliberately releasing it so why not?

Steve

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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Which, unfortunately, means I'm an "oldie". 

So hurry up with this Fire 'n' Rubble. More fire , less rubble. ;)

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12 hours ago, sburke said:
22 hours ago, Erwin said:

Done & done... Hence my comments.

Then you really should know better.

Yes thank you... since I have been to China and have talked with many folks there it's interesting how that "experience" and "knowledge" is dismissed cos it doesn't fit in with some peoples' "feelings" about what is the troof.  Hmm....  That criticism sounds very familiar.  Can anyone remind me who is it gets criticized for doing that...?

The fact is that unless you are in the intelligence field, nearly all the info that is accessible to normal folks that is coming out of China comes from State-controlled media and other sources.  So, one cannot believe anything that relies on that sort of Chinese data.

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Yes thank you... since I have been to China and have talked with many folks there it's interesting how that "experience" and "knowledge" is dismissed cos it doesn't fit in with some peoples' "feelings" about what is the troof.  Hmm....  That criticism sounds very familiar.  Can anyone remind me who is it gets criticized for doing that...?

The fact is that unless you are in the intelligence field, nearly all the info that is accessible to normal folks that is coming out of China comes from State-controlled media and other sources.  So, one cannot believe anything that relies on that sort of Chinese data.

If the information is inaccessible and there really are no facts we can work with then we should probably not discuss it at all right?  I disagree that this is the case.   I work for a consulting firm with literally hundreds of folks working there but what the hell do i know. 

No one dismissed your experience, but if you only reconfirm your own bias what is the point?  There is factual data on how the Chinese economy functions the size of its middle class etc. even a little travel in China can develop a whole other picture of both the good and bad, however it is only a slice.  
 

as an alternative example. I have been to Johannesburg several times. As is my usual when working projects I pretty much go from hotel to office to hotel. It is rather boring.  Once in a while though I get to do some sightseeing so we went to one of the animal parks. The drive there was depressing. The level of poverty I just wasn’t prepared for. The disparity in living standard was huge and I am not a rookie traveler. I did a similar thing in China from both Shanghai and Beijing however the disparity was nowhere near as bad. China has certain commitments to healthcare for it!s population for example I did not see in South Africa.   Those are things China can’t just stop providing but are at risk even in it’s current trajectory. 

Edited by sburke

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3 hours ago, Erwin said:

Yes thank you... since I have been to China and have talked with many folks there it's interesting how that "experience" and "knowledge" is dismissed cos it doesn't fit in with some peoples' "feelings" about what is the troof.  Hmm....  That criticism sounds very familiar.  Can anyone remind me who is it gets criticized for doing that...?

With your first hand experience, do you not agree with all the Chinese experts who say that the Party's grip on power is directly linked to domestic economic conditions for the average person?  Or do you think that the Chinese people would be OK with a couple tens of millions laid off for a year?

3 hours ago, Erwin said:

The fact is that unless you are in the intelligence field, nearly all the info that is accessible to normal folks that is coming out of China comes from State-controlled media and other sources.  So, one cannot believe anything that relies on that sort of Chinese data.

Right... and this has something to do with the suggestion you made that they deliberately blew up the world's economy?  Not as far as I can tell.

So, you made an assertion that lacked any factual, or even logical, basis.  You were quite rightly challenged with counter arguments.  You've not responded to any of that.  Which begs the question... do you even believe what you wrote?  If so, one would think you'd spend at least some of your response time defending it.  Since you haven't the only conclusion that can be made is you can't.

Steve

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