THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM

[Erwin]

Perhaps the issue is how we think about serious stuff like death when at peace vs when at war.  In a war, Guderian (we) accept losses and assume it's unfortunately necessary/unavoidable to accomplish goals.  While it's laudable that we in the west have made "life" a very precious commodity, it makes us vulnerable when having to make very hard but necessary decisions that could cost lives - whether countering terroristic cultures/nations or what measures to take in order to survive a very nasty disease when the destruction of our economy/way of life may be at stake.

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Erwin

[Wicky]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Dumb in the sense that it's not a plan to combat a crisis, it is a reaction to not having planned to combat a crisis before it hit.  Having no well thought out and executed plan going forward is as bad as not having had one before things got bad. 

It was in the contingency of planning for pandemic at least in the UK (based on WHO measures) - around 2006 it was thought most likely an Avian Flu.  It's having to implement it based on Covid-19s bad case infectivity and fataliity rates. 

28 April 2006 > http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4602144.stm

WHAT MEASURES WOULD BE USED TO COPE WITH A PANDEMIC?
In the time it takes to develop and procure the new vaccine, the following measures would be used to try to buy time and stop the virus spreading:

Travel between the UK and infected countries restricted and health screening begun at ports
Infected people asked to go into voluntary isolation and those who had been in contact with them into voluntary quarantine
Public gatherings such as football matches and concerts restricted, along with movement of people within local areas
Schools closed
Infected people, those who had been in contact with them and possibly the general public told to wear face masks.
In addition, government television, radio and newspaper advertisements would give simple advice on hygiene and how to avoid infection.

IMPACT ON HEALTH SERVICES
The government warns the "intense, sustained and nationwide" impact of a pandemic could quickly overwhelm health and social services.
Demand on health services will increase as more people become sick and at the same time the workforce itself is likely to be depleted by sickness, caring responsibilities and deaths.
GPs are likely to see as many as 14 million more patients during a pandemic than normal.
Hospitals will see a rise of at least 50% in admissions for acute respiratory conditions, with at least 20,000 new patients per week needing hospitalization at the peak.

IMPACT ON BUSINESS AND DAILY LIFE
Transport systems, supply networks and utilities are likely to be disrupted by staff sickness and movement restrictions.
This, plus staff sickness, will have a knock-on effect for all workplaces in the UK.
This includes all the emergency services, the military and essential services such as fuel supply, food production and distribution and transport, as well as prisons, education and businesses.
Employers are advised to base their contingency plans on a total of 25% of workers having to take between five and eight days off over a period of three to four months due to sickness and caring responsibilities.
But the virus may spread faster in workplaces, hitting them harder over a shorter period of time.
In the worst case scenario, staff absenteeism is expected to peak at a maximum of 15% at any one time.
However, some employers may be hit harder than others.
The virus is also expected to spread rapidly in schools, where infection rates of 90% are envisaged.
Other institutions such as prisons and care homes will be similarly hit.
Closing schools would have serious implications for the wider society, as parents were forced to stay home from work to care for children.
In addition to maintaining the continuity of their work, businesses are advised to consider how they would protect the security of their premises if they were badly affected by sickness.
They are advised to make plans to run their operations with minimum staffing, and consider redeploying staff to areas they might not normally work in or taking on additional staff or volunteers where necessary.
Employers should also consider providing accommodation, such as bunks in temporary buildings, where staff can rest in between shifts if transport disruption or movement restrictions mean they cannot get home.

[Erwin]

I would wager that similar plans were in place in case of chem-bio attack.  As noted the above plans were for Avian Flu - one of the several recent threatened pandemics that never transpired.

It's like the "Boy Who Cried Wolf".  Govts are understandably reluctant to enact sweeping measures that disrupt the economy and our way of life when it may be yet another false alarm.  And once one is certain the alarm is for real, it's a bit late.  We need to have some understanding re how hard these decisions must be.

[Wicky]

It's like being prepared for a once in a generation natural disaster like a Tsunami. When the boxing day one struck most folk had never seen or even heard about them, so when the sea simply disappeared without warning some folk wandered down to explore the exposed seabed - not knowing the sea was going to rush back in...

At least we've had zombie / apocalyptic movies as a kind of cultural innoculation

http://www.contactmusic.com/film/review/secret-cinema-28-days-later

The set-up is very clever: you are given an appointment at an NSH hospital in a secret London location, and told to wear scrubs or protective clothing. On arrival you're handed a surgical mask and ordered here and there for interviews, physical examinations and eventually an oral vaccination that seems to make everything go blurry and then pitch black. When you "wake up" all hell has broken loose, and you are sent running through a series of blood-drenched corridors and stairwells, encountering characters and settings from the film as zombies (Covidiots) lunge from every corner. In the safe zone, food and drink is for sale, and you get a chance to relax a bit, play a game, have a dance. Finally, you're led into an inventively themed cinema to watch the 2002 film as on-screen elements are performed around you.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Wicky

[Battlefront.com]

I just heard the Governor of Nebraska give the "boy who cried wolf" excuse for why the Federal government did nothing until everything had gotten out of control.  Sorry, not buying it.  What should have happened?  In January a task force should have been formed to monitor the situation in China.  I mean, who in the current US Admin trusts the Chinese?  Nobody.  So they should have understood that things were WORSE than was being reported.  And since the WHO's info was only as good as the Chinese allowed, the WHO should not have been used as a gold standard either. 

CM analogy... you see some of your units getting hammered by something unidentified.  Do you a) do nothing or b) do something?  If you chose A, then I think I've got a new PBEM opponent in mind

By very early mid to late January it was abundantly clear, even to folks like me, that this thing was pretty bad (relative to previous flu type viruses) and was going to spread.  How soon and how bad?  Not my department.  The aforementioned task force would have been assessing it and start taking appropriate measures behind the scenes.  Like checking on if the masks in storage were worth a damned and replacing them if they weren't. 

CM analogy... you now see that the threat to your flank is a bunch of tanks with some unknown amount of infantry.  Do you a) do nothing or b) do something?  Again, if your style of play is "do nothing" then you're my kind of opponent!

By very early February it was clear that the virus was going to spread outside of Asia, by mid February it had done exactly that.  At this point the non-existent task force should have been doing things like working with State CDC organizations to make sure they were ready for what might come, demanding that they do their own risk assessments, inventorying their PPE, etc.  Still largely behind the scenes stuff.

CM Analogy... the flank has been compromised and you're starting to receive fire from an unexpected location, quite a ways away from the previous fighting.  Do you a) do nothing or b) do something?  At this point I don't want to play anybody that is still opting for A, because obviously my time is being wasted.

By late February all alarms should have been going off all around the globe.  The non-existent task force would be leaping into action to take measured PROACTIVE actions to contain and limit the spread.  This would involve a calm and measured discussion with citizens about what might come.  Behind the scenes polices would be implemented for quarantining, tracking, etc.  Travel restrictions from affected areas (not JUST China) would have been put into place, prepositioning some supplies in the obvious epicenter states, etc.

CM Analogy... the objectives you're defending are now coming under direct threat by forces that have already overwhelmed or severely compromised your front line positions.  Do you a) do nothing or b) do something?  Only a total and utter moron would still be selecting A as the prime go-to choice.

By March things should have been going full tilt to get ready for the influx of hundreds of thousands of cases.  Now the months of planning would have gone into action in a coordinated, phased, context sensitive way.  The public would have been informed about these measures and why they were necessary.

CM Analogy... the enemy is now moving in towards what you are trying to defend.  You have a pretty good idea what is at stake, you also know most of what you need to know about the enemy's capabilities.  Do you a) do nothing or b) do something?  Unless the person was suddenly medically incapacitated, I doubt anybody would still select A at this point

.

Now, think about how the response to COVID-19 played out in most countries (not just the US) and you'll see that playing PBEM against most of them would be like shooting fish in a barrel.  For 3 months option A was the prime go-to choice Especially the leaders and supporters who somehow came up with option C which was to actively deny anything was happening (which is worse than doing nothing).

To be clear... this was a fudgeup of epic proportions by many governments.  It is their job to figure stuff like this out before it happens and to cry "wolf" as soon as they lay eyes upon it (not after it's biting).  This was no earthquake or tsunami, it was a relatively slow rolling crisis driven almost exclusively by Human activities.

In the words of the youngsters out there... EPIC FAIL.

So now what?  The complete and utter dereliction of duty and gross incompetence left us with a mess that made the world economy shutting down inevitable.  If it wasn't done proactively, it would have been done reactively when the health care system collapsed.  Proactive shutdown was definitely the right choice, but now we need leadership on how to get things open again.  After that, we need a much better plan for what to do when the next one comes up.  Option A for four months should not be repeated.

Steve

[kevinkin]

The viral outbreak from China is not a natural disaster like an earthquake or a hurricane. It is self inflicted and a product of government whiffing at a curveball. Red China knew they had a major problem and decided it was in their best interest to infect NATO and the West. Asymmetric warfare, with a seasoning of five spice and plausible deniability. But I do say, the Red Chinese never thought it would get so bad in the West that we would close our economies they so depend on. Perhaps Red China was so embarrassed by their lack of CONTROL to contain the bug and they said  "What the hell". They contained their own population while allowing international travel for a critical amount of time. Sort of like Europeans giving smallpox blankets to native Americans. Leadership is not a well defined term unless actually given some context. Consumers will lead the US economy back. Not elected officials at any level of government. Individuals, and their friends and family, will lead us out of this morass despite serve restrictions on their freedom.  Do not look to the mayor of NYC and actually see a leader. His solution is to print money; productivity be damned. 

Nice to see you back Steve!!!

[Wicky]

32 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The viral outbreak from China is not a natural disaster like an earthquake or a hurricane.

Disagree, like Astronomers warning about meteorites and Geologists doing the same about earthquakes, it was foreseen

“Most experts believe that it is not a question of whether there will be 
another severe influenza pandemic, but when.” 
(The UK Government’s Chief Medical Officer, 2002) 


“Wherever in the world a flu pandemic starts, perhaps with its epicentre in the Far East, we must assume we will be unable to prevent it reaching the UK. When it does, its impact will be severe in the number of illnesses and the disruption to everyday life. The steps we are setting out today will help us to reduce the disease's impact on our population.”


(Sir Liam Donaldson, UK Chief Medical Officer, 1 March 2005)

And US even had pandemic prep exercises, and a prep handover between Pres. terms but IIRC all the staff involved since have departed their jobs.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

In January a task force should have been formed to monitor the situation in China.

CDC Epidemiologist Embedded With China’s Disease Control Agency Left Post In July Before Position Cut In September

Reuters: Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak
“Several months before the coronavirus pandemic began, the Trump administration eliminated a key American public health position in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China, 

 

A bit like in the Cold War letting CORONA GAMBIT reconnaissance satellites lapse

Edited April 27, 2020 by Wicky

[General Jack Ripper]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And since the WHO's info was only as good as the Chinese allowed, the WHO should not have been used as a gold standard either.

Trouble is, the experts we rely on to give us our good information and plans seem to think the WHO is just amazing.

 

Aside from that, all I gotta say is this thread didn't age well. Remember when this was a global pandemic that was gonna kill millions of people?

Lame.

I didn't even get to see any zombies, and I went out and bought some extra ammo too just in case.

[General Jack Ripper]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/disinformation-china-eu-coronavirus.html

I wonder if the real story will ever come out.

[kevinkin]

Funny, for a strange reason I was listening to a pandemic audiobook in November. After it Happened. Hours and hours of listening but the very last book you have to purchase. It is a good story that will draw you in and I have to say I am not into fiction. It you are interested, listen to Book 1 before you let your kids in on it. Mild R rating stuff, but no sex. 

Kevin

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by kevinkin

[General Jack Ripper]

On 4/20/2020 at 7:50 PM, z1812 said:

We would do well to acknowledge that without the measures taken we can never know how bad it might have been. 

The doomsayers are always right.

Observe:
>Millions of people WILL DIE unless we take these measures!
Millions don't die.
>Millions of people WOULD HAVE died if we hadn't taken these measures!

The doomsayers are always right.

Truth is, the real numbers of infected likely will not be known for some time, given this virus was spreading for weeks uncontrolled before any alarm was raised, and still spread uncontrolled for weeks while China assured everyone it's just a seasonal flu and there's no evidence of human to human transmission and masks most likely won't protect you and don't worry swine flu and SARS were just a big nothing-burger too etcetera, "It's all America's fault! Stop being racist! Go hug a Chinese person! Stop shutting down travel from foreign countries you bigot! Those faulty tests are just a conspiracy! Wearing a mask is racist!"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/us/face-masks-ethnicity-coronavirus-cdc-trnd/index.html

This thing ran away from containment at the very beginning, and all we've been doing this whole time is trying to apply a vacuum cleaner to a dirt factory.

I'm sorry for my excessively sanguine attitude, but lets be honest here, the failure to prevent the spread of this virus is not the fault of any one person, or any one policy, it was a failure of our entire civilization.

Or as Dan Carlin titled it in an excellent Hardcore History episode:

"Globalization Unto Death"

Which I highly recommend by the way. Excellent story.

[Battlefront.com]

The virus is natural and it's been predicted that eventually we would get another "big one".  Just like at some point California is going to become a chain of islands.  In that sense they are both natural disasters.  As are tsunamis, volcanoes, and other such big events.  Another common element is how Humans deal with them.  Do societies (aka governments) allow people to do things that put themselves, and by extension larger communities, at risk?  Building codes, for example, are designed to reduce the chance of catastrophic collapse in the event of an earthquake.  Warning systems are in place to get people off the coast in the event of a tsunami.  Etc.  So yes, there's a lot of similarities in both cause and the ability for Humans to mitigate the results.

The difference with the virus is it's relatively slow moving.  An earthquake might give warning signs, but often the big ones don't.  A tsunami might give people only minutes to get out of the way.  Not so with a virus. 

A virus is more like a wildfire where the poor bastards that happen to be right next where it starts are screwed, but Humans can do things to mitigate the risk to others.  People can lump as much blame as they want to on China or the WHO, but that only excuses maybe the first month of the response.  And even then I'd argue it doesn't.  What happened after January is totally, utterly, and completely on the shoulders of other governments and, in particular, the ones who control the levers of power.  Some handled it better than others, but for the most part I think it was botched.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Leadership is not a well defined term unless actually given some context. Consumers will lead the US economy back.

Gosh, I hope not   Consumers got us into many of the pickles we were in before and are now seeing played out now.  The consumer demand for the cheapest goods and services without regard to resiliency or security is showing itself to be a real threat to society as a whole.  I would like to think that people would say "hmm... I'd be willing to pay $0.01 more so I could have a face mask made in USA instead of China", but I don't see that happening.  "I'd rather pay a little more for my food and have a reliable source than to rely upon stuff trucked from 2000mi away processed by undocumented workers" is also something I don't see happening on a large scale.  One thing that we can count on is collective amnesia.  It's one of the things Humans are best at.

That said, I agree that it the only thing that will get our economy back on track will be workers getting back to regular work.  Government, at best, can bridge the gap.

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Not elected officials at any level of government. Individuals, and their friends and family, will lead us out of this morass despite serve restrictions on their freedom.

As Sweden has shown, even if government has a light touch on restrictions, the people are behaving about the same there as elsewhere.  That in turn, according to the Swedish government, is going to lead to an economic contraction on par with the rest of Europe (about 3% IIRC). 

And personally, I don't consider being unable to play golf or eat out a "severe restriction" on my freedom.  Those places would likely be closed sooner rather than later anyway because they would either lack workers (staying home because afraid or sick) or because it makes no economic sense to stay open with so many people voluntarily staying home.  It doesn't take the loss of too many customers before a business realizes they'll lose less money by being closed than open.

"Severe restrictions" would be what I've heard about in Spain.  Of course they also have a severe outbreak.

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Nice to see you back Steve!!!

Thanks for noticing

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

The doomsayers are always right.

Observe:
>Millions of people WILL DIE unless we take these measures!
Millions don't die.
>Millions of people WOULD HAVE died if we hadn't taken these measures!

The doomsayers are always right.

 

That's one way to look at it.  The other way is that the naysayers are always right:

Observe:
>Millions of people WILL NOT DIE if we don't take drastic measures!

>Drastic measures are taken despite protests and foot dragging
Millions don't die.

>Millions of people WOULD NOT HAVE died if we hadn't taken these measures!

 

Both sides can make arguments that are equally dismissive of the other side because the only way to know for sure is to time travel and do the opposite of what was in fact done.   Nobody should get smug about the position they chose to take.

That said, so far the side that screamed "fire!" in the theater has been proven more correct than the ones who shouted "shut up!".  How can I say this?  Because they naysayers insisted that COVID-19 would be no worse than regular seasonal flu even without drastic measures.  We already have the evidence in hand to shows that was wrong by a wide margin even with the drastic measures.  Therefore, despite the inability to travel in time it can be concluded that the "shut up!" crowd was more wrong than right, the "fire!" crowd was more right than wrong.  So far.

Logically, the credibility of the "shut up!" crowd is questionable.  However, I'd argue strongly that the "fire!" crowd is not necessarily going to be proven correct about the next phase to come.  It could be that the "fire!" crowd thinks the entire block is going to go up in flames, so everybody should leave and head for the edge of town, despite it being below freezing and the middle of the night.  The "shut up!" crowd may have a point if they say "OK, hold on a sec... is that really smart or necessary?  Maybe we should look before we run?".

Just like someone who thinks they can call the ending of a game by the actions seen in the first 1/4 of play, this ain't over yet.  Which extreme view has more to crow about and which to be ashamed about is yet to be seen.  Nobody should be crowing yet.

Steve

(edit note... I realized I forgot to put a negative in this sentence, which radically changed its intent)

[AlanSA]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

A virus is more like a wildfire where the poor bastards that happen to be right next where it starts are screwed, but Humans can do things to mitigate the risk to others.  People can lump as much blame as they want to on China or the WHO, but that only excuses maybe the first month of the response.  And even then I'd argue it doesn't.  What happened after January is totally, utterly, and completely on the shoulders of other governments and, in particular, the ones who control the levers of power.  Some handled it better than others, but for the most part I think it was botched.

Steve

Well yes they continued to adhere to WHO guidance which was compromised to put it mildly.

We've now been in complete lockdown for a month. 87 reported deaths.

 

[37mm]

Millions will definitely die, that's no longer a fact in doubt.

Even at the current rate we'll hit a million "confirmed" in June... and logically as the global South moves into Winter that rate should increase (we're already seeing the Brazil death toll start to rise).

The current point in time, with nowhere on Earth having Winter conditions & lockdowns near everywhere, is probably the best it's going to get for quite awhile.

[Kevin2k]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We already have the evidence in hand to shows that was wrong by a wide margin even with the drastic measures.

I am gonna dig into that evidence later, because it must be done. Some examples: Other morbidities are down and now grouped with corona. Death certificate procedures have changed in this period.

https://www.rcpath.org/uploads/assets/d5e28baf-5789-4b0f-acecfe370eee6223/fe8fa85a-f004-4a0c-81ee4b2b9cd12cbf/Briefing-on-COVID-19-autopsy-Feb-2020.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

In addition: News with daily deaths were shown include deaths from like 3 weeks earlier. PCR and lung scans tests have a significant portion of false results. Rate of infection versus death is questionable, because the rate of infection was and is probably much higher, though unnoticed and unrecorded.

 

I spoke to a friend in Nigeria last week, on telephone. There were 11 deaths of corona in the official count, at that point.  But was assured that many more were dying in Lagos city from hunger, resulting from lockdown. The lockdown there was not that strict in theory, but the police took it as an opportunity to extort people on the roads, much more then the police normally does. 

 

[Kevin2k]

I wrote I would leave this discussion until things were over. Not quite there unfortunately.

But I get any of steve's replies in the email automatically  so that is the reason...

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kevin2k said:

I am gonna dig into that evidence later, because it must be done.

I'm not so interested in where the absolute number comes in, but rather looking at the relative numbers.  Because that was the argument being made by the "shut up!" crowd when the "fire!" crowd got things in motion.  We already the data we need to conclude the "shut up!" crowd was way off the mark.

In the US the worst recorded number of seasonal deaths for the regular flu is 61,000, which was about 2 times higher than running average.  The Flu season is from October until May (8 months).  So far the US has confirmed 54,000 deaths as of today over a period of 3 months, and that number is likely will continue to rise.  When adjusted for time, COVID-19 deaths are roughly 2x higher than the worst regular flu season and vastly larger than any other year on record.  By definition, this means COVID-19 is not equivalent to a normal flu season in any way.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fabout%2Fdisease%2Fus_flu-related_deaths.htm

Next, we have to take into consideration if we locked down the world during a normal flu season the death rate would be significantly lower.  For sure if we did not lock down for COVID-19 it would be significantly worse.  So we have to keep in mind that the normal flu death rate is more "natural" while the COVID-19 death rate is more "artificially low".  Unless someone is stupid enough to argue about the science of epidemiology, there is no argument to make that the two death rates can be compared against each as if they are equivalent.

And lastly... when was the last regular flu season that saw hospitals pushed beyond capacity and necessitated field hospitals being set up in hotspots?  This alone shows that we're dealing with something vastly different than the regular flu.  Don't need to be a genius number cruncher to see that.

That leaves us with the absolute and for sure fact that COVID-19 is vastly worse than the regular flu.  Case closed on that one.  How much worse?  Too early to say and for sure will be debated for many years.  But the people that said "sit down and shut up!  You're overreacting, it's not a fire!  It's just the usual stoner smoking a bowl.  Don't ruin my moving going experience with your panic" are demonstrably wrong already. Therefore, such people have a credibility problem with the debates as they roll forward.  If they try to convince you otherwise, they're even less credible as denial and alternative realities aren't helpful.

1 hour ago, Kevin2k said:

But I get any of steve's replies in the email automatically  so that is the reason...

I'm flattered

Steve

[sburke]

4 hours ago, 37mm said:

Millions will definitely die, that's no longer a fact in doubt.

Even at the current rate we'll hit a million "confirmed" in June... and logically as the global South moves into Winter that rate should increase (we're already seeing the Brazil death toll start to rise).

The current point in time, with nowhere on Earth having Winter conditions & lockdowns near everywhere, is probably the best it's going to get for quite awhile.

Problem on both sides is this is a marathon not a sprint. The current administration wants to forecast a return to normal as fast as possible.  Some of that is economic, some political. The medical community is trying to get us to understand that even if you project the number of exposed 10 fold it is still for the US only 10 million or 3% of the population. The 1918 pandemic infected 28% of the populace.  For  arguments sake let’s say this does the same and the death rate is about 55,000 per 10 million infected and another 80-90 million will be infected.  The math of this is harsh.    China is already struggling with re-infection. 
The harsh reality is humanity is going to pay a price both in lives and economically. This isn’t just flu season. What we are seeing in resistance to lockdowns follows pretty much the experience of 1918. We get mentally and emotionally exhausted and we look to an end.  The problem is we basically lose the ground we gained at slowing the infection and make no mistake that is ALL we are doing. There isn’t some other miracle strategy.  We need to find a vaccine.  We try to buy time to allow our healthcare systems to cope. Can we relax the restrictions while we continue to research? The answer is we probably have to. However people need to be clear, relaxing doesn’t mean the danger is past.  It is a more an issue how do we manage it and unfortunately we humans don’t do that well.  Witness the folks flocking to the beach in southern calif. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by sburke

[sburke]

21 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

I guess below, from that article, is how they are doing it.  So far it seems to be keeping it in reasonable control.  And the article was dated April 22 so should be current enough.    

fighting to keep cases -- at nearly 200, with 12 deaths -- from spiralling out of control and overwhelming hospitals.

The severe lockdown imposed in five virus hotspots in the slum since the first cases were reported in early April is a key part of that undertaking.

"No-one is allowed to go in or out, everything, including grocery shops, is shut".  "Police are using drones to make sure people obey the rules," 

I still don’t have any good data but I have a major project in India that was supposed to launch in April. It was pushed to May.  I just heard this morning they are pushing it to June and possibly July.  What I infer from that is that stuff is happening that isn’t hitting the news and it isn’t good stuff  

India is in a particularly difficult situation. The banking industry is very unstable and was in trouble before the Pandemic. The restrictions imposed may be tight in Mumbai but nationally they could not do a full lockdown without the agriculture sector collapsing. This is the period when the villages make all their money to survive the year and when the harvest comes in.   In the US we are struggling with this with an economy that had been stable and is still structurally sound.  They don’t have that luxury. 

[MOS:96B2P]

14 minutes ago, sburke said:

I still don’t have any good data but I have a major project in India that was supposed to launch in April. It was pushed to May.  I just heard this morning they are pushing it to June and possibly July.  What I infer from that is that stuff is happening that isn’t hitting the news and it isn’t good stuff.   

Interesting stuff.  Thanks.      

[Holien]

The UK has the ONS office for national statistics and they are doing work on trying to get an accurate picture of what is really happening. It is politically independent. 

The image from the BBC shows 2015 vs 2020.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

[Kevin2k]

 

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not so interested in where the absolute number comes in, but rather looking at the relative numbers.  Because that was the argument being made by the "shut up!" crowd when the "fire!" crowd got things in motion.  We already the data we need to conclude the "shut up!" crowd was way off the mark.

I am not from any crowd. Crowds just turn bad eventually. Or can easily be made to look silly by sending some guys with Flat Earth theory to join them.

 

Quote

In the US the worst recorded number of seasonal deaths for the regular flu is 61,000, which was about 2 times higher than running average.  The Flu season is from October until May (8 months).  So far the US has confirmed 54,000 deaths as of today over a period of 3 months, and that number is likely will continue to rise.  When adjusted for time, COVID-19 deaths are roughly 2x higher than the worst regular flu season and vastly larger than any other year on record.  By definition, this means COVID-19 is not equivalent to a normal flu season in any way.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fabout%2Fdisease%2Fus_flu-related_deaths.htm

Next, we have to take into consideration if we locked down the world during a normal flu season the death rate would be significantly lower.  For sure if we did not lock down for COVID-19 it would be significantly worse.  So we have to keep in mind that the normal flu death rate is more "natural" while the COVID-19 death rate is more "artificially low".  Unless someone is stupid enough to argue about the science of epidemiology, there is no argument to make that the two death rates can be compared against each as if they are equivalent.

 

So I tried to check things.

61,000 Flu stat 2017-2017 allright.  I don't see the 54,000? but this for the year 2020 so far:

US COVID -19 deaths: 27,674

US Deaths all causes: 673,580

US Pneumonia deaths: 57,480  ( is this what you mean? )

US Deaths with pneumonia and COVID-19: 12,398

US Influenza deaths: 5,668

US deaths with pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19: 77,695

(These groupings are odd..., but nevermind that now)

 

My remarks:

1) Covid-19 numbers are free to be "assumption", As I showed for the UK before. The US CDC does it too:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/ "COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death." (This line was already in bold in the original text). Again PCR and lung tests have a significant error margin. Besides they are not needed to add a COVID case, assumption will do.

 

2) Seemingly these stats need pneumonia for their bulk. Both for flu headlines on itself, now and last seasons. Plus for using current flu numbers as to actually represent undiagnosed  COVID-19. What is up with that? Pneumonia can be bacterial for example, as opposed to the virus based influenza/COVID.

I find a guy with similar questions. He noticed that the way of reporting these CDC statistics was changed after 2014:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cdc-borrowing-pneumonia-deaths-from-flu-covid-19-james-lyons-weiler

I quote from that

"By not parsing out other causes of pneumonia, CDC has, for years, misled the public and the media with the term "Influenza Disease", causing everyone to believe "Influenza Disease" is influenza and not Influenza + Pneumonia from other causes."

 

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And lastly... when was the last regular flu season that saw hospitals pushed beyond capacity and necessitated field hospitals being set up in hotspots?  This alone shows that we're dealing with something vastly different than the regular flu.  Don't need to be a genius number cruncher to see that.

That leaves us with the absolute and for sure fact that COVID-19 is vastly worse than the regular flu.  Case closed on that one

I won't comment on the field hospitals now. It will just degrade things I guess.

Case closed? Judge and Jury in one?

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kevin2k said:

 

I am not from any crowd. Crowds just turn bad eventually. Or can easily be made to look silly by sending some guys with Flat Earth theory to join them.

The two extremes leave room for a lot of people inbetween.  But like so many things, people boil pretty much belong to one group more than the other.

 

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So I tried to check things.

61,000 Flu stat 2017-2017 allright.  I don't see the 54,000? but this for the year 2020 so far:

Huh?  The COVID-19 death rate is available everywhere.  Here is one of the primary trackers of COVID-19 only related deaths:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A better graphical representation, with more chart based explanations, can be found here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_hp-banner-low_resourcebox-v3%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Since I last posted the count has increased to around 56,000.

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My remarks:

1) Covid-19 numbers are free to be "assumption", As I showed for the UK before. The US CDC does it too:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/ "COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death." (This line was already in bold in the original text). Again PCR and lung tests have a significant error margin. Besides they are not needed to add a COVID case, assumption will do.

You are going down a rabbit hole.  There's also the under reporting that happened before testing became even as wobbly as it is now.  There was a morgue that had three identical deaths on the same day and only one was COVID-19 tagged.  Why?  Because at the time they were told to make no assumptions and only rely upon tests.  But as tests were in such short supply, they didn't waste them on the dead.  Not to mention how many people died of COVID-19 before there was a test at all.   It is going to take some time for those to show up in a recount.

So this is the problem and it is similar to why the CDC takes a few years to solidify a count for influenza deaths.  It simply isn't possible to produce numbers from so many point sources in real time.  Which is why I said from the start of my posting, absolute numbers is a very poor basis to make a case.  Relative numbers is far better.

And be very careful to make sure if you reexamine Fruit A and conclude it is an orange, not an apple, that the same scrutiny is applied to Fruit B.  For example...

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I quote from that

"By not parsing out other causes of pneumonia, CDC has, for years, misled the public and the media with the term "Influenza Disease", causing everyone to believe "Influenza Disease" is influenza and not Influenza + Pneumonia from other causes."

So what you're saying here is that the normal influenza numbers are also massively inflated.  So if you want to knock down the COVID-19 count you must also knock down the standard influenza count.  Since you lack the qualifications necessary to make meaningful adjustments to such numbers, I suggest you don't go down that rabbit hole after all.

 

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I won't comment on the field hospitals now. It will just degrade things I guess.

Anybody who thinks the hit to the medical facilities currently is within bounds of a normal influenza year is, simply put, nuts.  No nicer way to put it.

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Case closed? Judge and Jury in one?

2 months ago it was much easier to make an argument that COVID-19 is no different than normal influenza.  From a scientific basis it was a tough argument to make, but there was "reasonable doubt" that could be brought into the discussion.  Now?  The evidence is already overwhelmingly against such a theory and each day becomes even more out of touch with reality.  I really don't advise people to stick to such a failed line of thinking.  It brings about the temptation to draw comparisons to Flat Earthers or 9000 year old planet Earth.  Not worth debating.

Where there is room for reasonable debate is to determine what we should do about the poop sandwich we find ourselves in now.  There is no one-size-fits-all approach and also very little historical precedent to lean on for guidance.  It's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.

Steve