THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM

[sburke]

let's get back to pandemic and off politics if we can.  

Frankly concerned about the push to re open now.  The original number circulated about 100-250k deaths was premised on most Americans not practicing social distancing.  The drop in estimate to 60k was based on social distancing becoming a lot more prevalent not that the virus was any less virulent.  That is now going to be tossed upside down as we start reopening while the virus is still spreading.

There are now 3 suspected strains - A, B and C.  A is the original.  B is it's mutation that spread in China.  C is what is now spreading in/from Europe.  C appears to be more deadly. For those still talking about this being no worse then the flu.  March 20th the US had 225 deaths.  April 20th 40,000.  In a month it has killed more than typically die from the flu in a year and we have not peaked. That is against a flu that hit more of the population AND has a vaccine.  

In fact as these states open up we are guaranteeing that we head back towards the original targets we were warned about.  One of the things that was a concern early on is the very success of social distancing may undermine it.  The chorus of see how few are affected doesn't take into account that is based on social distancing being more prevalent than expected.  What things will look like without it is exactly what we are  trying to avoid.  For those still talking about "herd immunity" this is worth a read.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/fact-check-herd-immunity-would-not-fully-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus/ar-BB12QmUE?ocid=spartanntp

 

Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of the population becomes immune to a disease or virus, stopping its spread because there are so few people who can contract it.
It is typically attained through vaccination, not widespread infection. For example, herd immunity for the measles is achieved when 19 out of 20 people receive the vaccination.
Wittkowski supported herd immunity through infection.
Although it is possible to achieve herd immunity through infection, “you don’t rely on the very deadly infectious agent to create an immune population,” Akiko Iwasaki, a virologist at the Yale School of Medicine, told The Atlantic.

“With most viral infections, when someone gets infected and then recovers, they develop immunity at least for a period of time and cannot be reinfected. That’s true for most viruses. It’s not true for all viruses,” Barouch said. “For COVID-19, we don’t know yet. We don’t yet have definitive proof whether there’s natural protective immunity.”

[Holien]

Thanks for the explanation Sublime, for me I saw a nurse posting asking those folks to stay at home and in her post she said something along the lines that folk will say she is a snowflake. I do thank the Americans here posting either side of the political spectrum as it helps me understand better your pov's.

My last post was more playing devil's advocate because it seems those protesting are cloaking themselves with patriotism when it could be viewed the other way..

BTW in the UK snowflake is not a common term being used...

[danfrodo]

Hey BFC, any chance this thread could be removed from the 'all activity' stream?   So that folks that want to discuss can go to the thread, but the activity button doesn't bring it up.  I get caught up in this, like others, but it's a terrible distraction from trying to distract myself w CM.

[kevinkin]

Let’s dive back in … "herd" or naturally acquired immunity has worked for humanity aka homo sapiens for around 300,000 years. The first vaccine (small pox) was with Jenner in 1800. So we have known of man-made vaccines for 0.07 percent of humanity's existence. Naturally acquired immunity works or there would be no humans. Vaccines are efficient since you can deliver immunity before a persistent virus or bacteria strikes. Yet, you need to have isolated and studied the virus or bacteria in order to create the vaccine. The China virus is novel. It was isolated a couple of months ago. Without a vaccine, naturally acquired immunity is the only safeguard. It’s not perfect since like the common cold – viruses can mutate. Distancing helps, but is a temporary band aid. It allows time for naturally acquired immunity to gain traction. There may never be a vaccine for this China virus. If we distance for several years in a manner like the northeast is doing now, while a vaccine is (NOT) being developed, there will be nothing left of our society to live for. What is life without ballgames and Broadway? Or kids running freely on a field of play?

So our “leaders” are depending on naturally acquired immunity gaining traction allowing them to ease restrictions. There is nothing nothing nothing other than that they can depend on. 

Give me liberty, or give me death!

I think South Carolina’s approach is sensible. 

PS: I wonder what over the counter medicines people used that helped them through mild cases.? 

 

[37mm]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

The current problem is based in the whole “fake news” phenomena which again is nothing more than propaganda to be able to deflect. It has inevitably taken on a life of its own in that folks now live in their own bubble where “belief” trumps research.

If North Korea has better news than the West then it's clear that we have some pretty fundamental issues.

As to the virus itself... it should be noted that its likely already mutated to many, many different strains (one of many reason I don't hold much hope for a vaccine... or "herd immunity" for that matter).

Europe seems to have been hit with the nastiest strain... at present.

[sburke]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Let’s dive back in … "herd" or naturally acquired immunity has worked for humanity aka homo sapiens for around 300,000 years. The first vaccine (small pox) was with Jenner in 1800. So we have known of man-made vaccines for 0.07 percent of humanity's existence. Naturally acquired immunity works or there would be no humans. Vaccines are efficient since you can deliver immunity before a persistent virus or bacteria strikes. Yet, you need to have isolated and studied the virus or bacteria in order to create the vaccine. The China virus is novel. It was isolated a couple of months ago. Without a vaccine, naturally acquired immunity is the only safeguard. It’s not perfect since like the common cold – viruses can mutate. Distancing helps, but is a temporary band aid. It allows time for naturally acquired immunity to gain traction. There may never be a vaccine for this China virus. If we distance for several years in a manner like the northeast is doing now, while a vaccine is (NOT) being developed, there will be nothing left of our society to live for. What is life without ballgames and Broadway? Or kids running freely on a field of play?

So our “leaders” are depending on naturally acquired immunity gaining traction allowing them to ease restrictions. There is nothing nothing nothing other than that they can depend on. 

Give me liberty, or give me death!

I think South Carolina’s approach is sensible. 

PS: I wonder what over the counter medicines people used that helped them through mild cases.? 

 

I still vote for science over hyperbole.

[Wicky]

5 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Let’s dive back in … "herd" or naturally acquired immunity has worked for humanity aka homo sapiens for around 300,000 years. The first vaccine (small pox) was with Jenner in 1800. So we have known of man-made vaccines for 0.07 percent of humanity's existence. Naturally acquired immunity works or there would be no humans. Vaccines are efficient since you can deliver immunity before a persistent virus or bacteria strikes. Yet, you need to have isolated and studied the virus or bacteria in order to create the vaccine. The China virus is novel. It was isolated a couple of months ago. Without a vaccine, naturally acquired immunity is the only safeguard. It’s not perfect since like the common cold – viruses can mutate. Distancing helps, but is a temporary band aid. It allows time for naturally acquired immunity to gain traction. There may never be a vaccine for this China virus. If we distance for several years in a manner like the northeast is doing now, while a vaccine is (NOT) being developed, there will be nothing left of our society to live for. What is life without ballgames and Broadway? Or kids running freely on a field of play?

So our “leaders” are depending on naturally acquired immunity gaining traction allowing them to ease restrictions. There is nothing nothing nothing other than that they can depend on. 

Give me liberty, or give me death!

I think South Carolina’s approach is sensible. 

PS: I wonder what over the counter medicines people used that helped them through mild cases.? 

 

What happens when a novel disease runs unabated through a population:

Smallpox epidemic ravages Native Americans on the northwest coast of North America in the 1770s.

[Holien]

So what Wicky! They got herd immunity (eventually)!

They did not have to endure restrictions on their freedom and continued to have their liberty, well the ones left alive did...

Yes humans will (hopefully) survive but how many, if you go with the approach of "freedom" the economic hit from all the deaths might outweigh the economic hit of isolating for a month or so? Seriously think what would happen to the US economy minus 30% or even 10% of the population, there is going to be economic consequences no matter which approach is taken.

America survived the Spanish Flu (or should it really have been called American flu as it started in America) it will survive this but with less citizens,  the number of less depends on the approach taken.

IMO the more people means the country is stronger and will recover quicker.

[Wicky]

Economy / Public health - Rocks and hard places that we elect & pay politicians to navigate through.... No easy answers for a quick fix.  They take advise from medics and economists and mitigate as best they can...

20 minutes ago, Holien said:

America survived the Spanish Flu (or should it really have been called American flu as it started in America) it will survive this but with less citizens,  the number of less depends on the approach taken.

IMO the more people means the country is stronger and will recover quicker.

Just finished reading Berlin - The Downfall 1945 and there are parallels with Trump's pressers and the floppy fringed moustached one's prounouncements as the Russians and allies closed in that wonder weapons (small kids armed with fausts/ hydroxychloroquine) and his armies (Steiner / Kushner) would get everything back to normal pronto.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by Wicky

[Holien]

We live in dangerous times, the last time we had this level of discontent and economic turmoil WW1 and WW2 helped liven everyone up...

My fear is that we just don't learn and 100 years on could we see America and China tipping us over the edge over with say Taiwan or Hongkong? If I see news that battle front are doing a Taiwan game I am going to start digging a bunker...

[sburke]

4 hours ago, Holien said:

America survived the Spanish Flu (or should it really have been called American flu as it started in America) it will survive this but with less citizens,  the number of less depends on the approach taken.

That is only a theory and there are other suggestions circulating. There isn’t a solid medical opinion yet. 
However there are lots of lessons to be learned about what the potential is for not locking down. 
https://news.yahoo.com/parade-killed-thousands-103001530.html

[Holien]

American flu, That was me being cheeky...

Thanks for the interesting article this bit really made me wonder...

Hmm saving lives has a better economic outcome...

"The economic impact of shutdowns
A study published this year argued that cities that acted early and aggressively to impose social distancing to limit the spread of the Spanish flu actually performed better economically after the pandemic was over than those that did not. Fewer workers had died, and the local population more quickly resumed normal economic behavior, three economists found."

Edited April 22, 2020 by Holien

[Erwin]

15 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Without a vaccine, naturally acquired immunity is the only safeguard.

Am not advocating any particular approach, but kevinkin's point has validity.  Yes, it's great when we have vaccines, but that has not always been possible and we will inevitably soon face another crisis of antibiotic-resistant pathogens.

Prior to modern history nature depended on lifeforms developing their own resistance in order to survive.  Modern medicine allows many to survive who would otherwise not survive... and then they breed and may spread weakness into our gene pool.  Obviously this is a very controversial concept.  But, our healthcare systems could one day be overwhelmed with the offspring of folks who unfortunately do not have the genetic make up that nature intended/requires for survival. 

I do not advocate or know the answer to either of these issues btw.  But, am convinced they will create a crisis one day.

 

[z1812]

Herd Immunity works, unless you, or Family members are among those who die while trying to achieve it.

In terms of social distancing, the idea is to immediately manage the level of contagion so hospitals will not be overwhelmed. Social distancing buys time to develop treatments and vaccines, while saving lives and lessening the burden of overworked health care workers and emergency responders.

Social distancing also has us finding ways to deal with daily requirements in a responsible fashion that can be used when the general economy opens up.

For instance at grocery stores, shields have been erected to protect cashiers and customers. People are allowed in only in smaller groups. People line up 6 feet apart. 

Regions are playing dice with the grim reaper should they prematurely abandon social distancing and Business closures.  During the 1918 Flu epidemic those jurisdictions that mandated Social Distancing and Business closures suffered much less than those who did not. Those that lifted closures and other precautions earlier suffered greater casualties when the second wave arrived.

These measures "generally" were instituted around the middle to end of March. It is now the April 22. So we have been dealing with this lockdown for about a Month. Have we really become so impatient and unprepared that we cannot bear some discomfort for the general good?

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Erwin said:

Am not advocating any particular approach, but kevinkin's point has validity.  

Not really.  His position is not supported by the medical community.  They aren't even sure we will develop immunity.  It is not a given.  What we do know is the cost of not doing a lockdown is high.  You can either work with real data and take action recommended by the experts in the field or you can decide based on what someone with unknown credentials posts on the internet (that isn't directed at Kevin but rather the sources posting about this "we need to go with herd immunity" stuff)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-nearly-10-times-number-210442597.html

Just like you can listen to the overwhelming scientific community about climate change or you can listen to the handful of conspiracy people filling the airwaves.

 

My hometown as a historical lesson on what NOT to do

https://news.yahoo.com/parade-killed-thousands-103001530.html

Edited April 22, 2020 by sburke

[Erwin]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

His position is not supported by the medical community. 

Always remember that history has not been kind to scientific orthodoxy of the period.  Eg: It used to be accepted science fact that the universe revolved around the earth which of course was flat (etc etc...).  

The other issue is the "big picture".  If this was 1940 and the Brits are desperately awaiting Nazi invasion, would the govt say - "just everyone stay home for a few months...".  The point is that there was a greater threat and casualties would have been expected and accepted.  Nobody wants to die or have those they love die, but if humans lived by that logic, we would never have wars at all.  Today the global threat is China and the economic war that we have been in for maybe 30 years - and which has already destroyed many western lives through ruin, despair and suicide.  If the US can get back to productivity faster than China that could halt the Chinese aggressive expansionist goals and help the west stay dominant for the foreseeable future.  Nobody was willing to pay that price in the 30's and we all know what that eventually cost in lives and treasure.  My interpretation of current calls to "open the country" is that economic dominance over China is the long term grand strategic prize that this administration is focused on.

On a side note, anyone notice how yesterday while Trump wished Kim Jong-un "well", he didn't wish him "a speedy recovery".  Nice semantics.

[Sublime]

On 4/21/2020 at 4:25 PM, Holien said:

Thanks for the explanation Sublime, for me I saw a nurse posting asking those folks to stay at home and in her post she said something along the lines that folk will say she is a snowflake. I do thank the Americans here posting either side of the political spectrum as it helps me understand better your pov's.

My last post was more playing devil's advocate because it seems those protesting are cloaking themselves with patriotismen it could be viewed the other way..

BTW in the UK snowflake is not a common term being used...

patriotism is used heavily as well.  also tds( trump derangement syndrome) is used to describe anyone whose vitriolic against trump and implies the persons deranged because they dont like trump. ironically the right adopted the term after it being used to describe the personality cult vibe around trump a few years ago.

the right here invented the term snowflake though and uses it much how someone would in like a combo of sjw/wuss.  except its use is usually a give away as to the persons leanings.  patriotism has been continually used to try to shield trumps comments, criminal leanings, everything. 

I cant emphasize enough, to understand a movement you have to understand the followers. we all like ww2, yet theres a taboo ( and I get it here and elsewhere) , about discussing politics because its gotten so hateful here its considered almost unpolite.  The problem is if we ignore the elephant in the room sometimes we dont understand something. if we didnt discuss the average german in ww2 we wouldnt get the nazis or hitler.  And understanding trump is understanding this bizarre coalition hes cobbled together of people who probaby literally pray for the deaths of other members who vote like them and are just there for single issues.  Its got to be the strangest coalition in political history - david duke kkk head, neo nazis, 4chan, qanon, proud boys, 2nd amendment types, the gop, tea partiers, racists, anti abortionists, anti immigrationists,  some big industry and some foreign parties and you have the trump goulash, which personally makes me ill.

sorry sburke, I know you didnt want me to go back to this but holiens post made me unable to resist.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Sublime

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

His position is not supported by the medical community.

Why?

It is 100% supported by science and the community. 

Please find an error in the mini essay that I posted on naturally acquired immunity and the history thereof. 

Kevin

 

 

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, z1812 said:

Have we really become so impatient and unprepared that we cannot bear some discomfort for the general good?

Are you a small business owner that had to lay off a single person: Likely the answer is no.
Are you still getting paid every two weeks while working from home: Likely the answer is yes.
Are you in any discomfort: Likely the answer is no. 

Be happy and support the opening of small business. These family enterprises are being crushed for no reason. 

Kevin
 

 

 

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Why?

It is 100% supported by science and the community. 

Please find an error in the mini essay that I posted on naturally acquired immunity and the history thereof. 

Kevin

Thank you but no.  What would be the point?  While I have lots of experience as a VoIP engineer/architect, I have absolutely none as an epidemiologist.  This guy on the other hand is our national expert.  Anthony Stephen Fauci is an American physician and immunologist who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) since 1984. Since January 2020, he has been one of the lead members of the Trump Administration's White House Coronavirus Task Force addressing the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic in the United States. Fauci is widely seen to be one of the most trusted medical figures in the country.

If you don't believe him, why the hell would you believe me?  He says you are wrong and that your suggested path is absolutely the wrong way to deal with this.  He speaks for the White House- most of the time when Trump isn't flip flopping for some adulation points.  If you think you know better than him, well hats off to you.  You can hang out with this lady.

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by sburke

[z1812]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Are you a small business owner that had to lay off a single person: Likely the answer is no.
Are you still getting paid every two weeks while working from home: Likely the answer is yes.
Are you in any discomfort: Likely the answer is no. 

Be happy and support the opening of small business. These family enterprises are being crushed for no reason. 

Kevin
 

 

 

 

Hi Kevin,

It is usually a mistake to assume what another person's circumstances are without knowing them. In every way you are wrong. Our sole income is from a small business..........and it is not one that can be run from home. So yes we are in discomfort just like everyone else. We suspended our business since the last week in March to protect clients and workers. A few days later business closures were mandated by our Provincial Government. 

We live in Canada and there has been a reasonably good response from the various governments regarding Business and Individual circumstances.  So while there are difficulties, there has been a financial and social cushion as well. The general population is observing social distancing and as far as I know there have been no demonstrations against it.

I am one of those that fits into the high bracket of risk because of my age and pre-existing conditions. This is also a worry.

So as you see can all your suppositions are incorrect. We are very, very anxious and eager to get back to work, but not until Science and Medical authorities think it reasonable to do so. 

This situation has obviously upset you a great deal.....................but be thoughtful...............in one way or another it is upsetting for everyone...and it will pass. 

Keep well Kevin and hopefully we can all go back to work soon.

 

[kevinkin]

@sburke

The point would be to show some independent critical thinking skills on your part. Seems that you are getting nervous that your entire Marxist media driven narrative is falling apart again and the misery you so hoped for will not happen nor take down the POTUS. Like I said on Sunday ... strike three and you are out. I love debating people with TDS. Its like taking candy from... fill in the blank. 

Kevin, 

Edited April 23, 2020 by kevinkin

[kevinkin]

30 minutes ago, z1812 said:

Our sole income is from a small business

Sounds like you're in pretty good shape. In the US, hourly workers and small business owners are getting crushed. There is an entire group of workers that can work from home and get full pay while enjoying time away from the office. These folks work in government or in the schools or hold nice jobs in corporations. I don't hold anything against those people at all.  I don't trust Science and Medical authorities to do anything other than cover their butts. They will take no risk. They have no interest in opening up the free market because they are not a part of it. They do have an interest in keeping their thumbs on everyones neck. They are government. That's what they do. In the US, about 50% fear government and fight against it's over reach.. The others are really just lemmings and do what they are told. Sad. 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

@sburke

The point would be to show some independent critical thinking skills on your part. Seems that you are getting nervous that your entire Marxist media driven narrative is falling apart again and the misery you so hoped for will not happen nor take down the POTUS. Like I said on Sunday ... strike three and you are out. I love debating people with TDS. Its like taking candy from... fill in the blank. 

Kevin, 

Think what you want, there have been no strikes yet. Just cover from a GOP that has sold it's soul.  However this isn't about how much of a corrupt pathetic idiot the man you support as Potus is.  He himself apparently thinks it is too early to reopen as well.  Seems my "Marxist media driven narrative" is more in line with Trump right now than yours.  (Granted the idiot can't stick with any plan more than 5 minutes, maybe less if he's about to watch Fox - what a great leader).  But hey he's getting great ratings during the briefings right?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-he-disagrees-strongly-with-georgia-governors-decision-to-reopen-state-000105433.html

And to suggest I want tens of thousands to die just for the doofus to leave office?  That is truly pathetic and beneath you.  How do you go from wanting a discussion and critical thinking to a statement like that?  All that does is confirm I was correct in not expecting any real discussion from you.  Go tune in to Alex jones or Limbaugh or whoever it is that you get your oddly colored view of reality from.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by sburke

[kevinkin]

I don't support the POTUS, but I do support those states that are trying to open slowly in a reasonable manner. If we leave this up Fauci, and other unelected Feds in general, we will never open since they are adverse to any risk what-so-ever. All these states are doing is just backing away from shelter in place and opening parts of their economy in a highly regulated manner. States have epidemiologists too. It's their call, not the Feds. Their reputations are on the line. Fauci is going to be 80 at year's end and is embedded in the Washington bureaucracy. Only in Washington does someone keep a senior position like his at such an advanced age. We can't take his sole opinion on opening or not and when and where as gospel. I really hope these states are successful since they could chart a path for the rest of the country.  

Kevin

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/21/behind-protests-two-americas-one-unemployed-and-one-gets-paychecks-column/5167453002/

PS: Just to be clear, I am all for distancing and face coverings once shelter in place orders are lifted. I am not advocating just going back like nothing has happened. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by kevinkin