sburke Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 3 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said: Speaking of Netflix, which is kind of important with quarantine etc. I was reading the comments in an online Al Jazeera article a few months back and came across a very interesting show called Fauda. It means chaos in Arabic and is the panic code word for an elite group of Israeli commandos that conduct undercover operations in the West Bank, Gaza etc. The show also portrays Palestinian families who are caught in between the Israeli military, Palestinian authority, Hamas and others. Season three just started a few days ago. I highly recommend the show. Cool, I need to catch that, thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wicky Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Meanwhile in NJ... https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/more-than-1500-nj-nursing-home-residents-have-died-from-coronavirus-state-reveals.html https://eu.northjersey.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/04/17/coronavirus-nj-nursing-home-deaths-account-40-percent-njs-fatalities/5155332002/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Florida is basically a giant senior living community. And was late to start taking measures against covid spread. Maybe that state will be lucky, but if this virus is spreading there it will be a disaster. It just takes a few infected workers with little or no symptoms to infect hundreds at a time. And Boston Globe newspaper just had 16 pages of death notices for one day. All should note that we are undercounting covid deaths since some number are dying w/o being tested. So how does something like this become identity politics? It's basic epidemiology. It's basic science. Yet here we are. I thought climate denial was insane but turns out it's only the tip of an iceberg of brainwashed lunacy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 11 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said: ...a very interesting show called Fauda. I have that on "My List" to watch. But, I want to get through what looks like an ISIS-produced TV series "Black Crows" first (actually made as propaganda by Saudis and shot in Lebanon with a director and crew that seem to have no credits(!). The show is (probably unintentionally) very funny (albeit with some very dark satanic sequences) and is quite compelling re life as a regular Joe recruit in the Islamic State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 12 hours ago, sburke said: My mother is an ex ER nurse and has friends who have come out of retirement to volunteer and their stories are harsh. I sincerely hope no one you know is ever affected, but I'll be curious when it does if you'll come back here and say "sorry folks if I came off as an ignorant fool, a pandemic is something you can't just brush off until you are personally affected". Look, bringing your mom into the conversation while calling me an ignorant fool was inappropriate and in poor form in any debate. Anecdotal evidence is fine. But it's not a good idea attaching it to family since it takes all the air out of the discussion. Especially in a sensitive topic like this one. How can someone challenge evidence if it come from a guy's mother? Here is what I said BTW: "we don't know anyone infected by this virus. We know hundreds who are affected". The cure has been far worse than the illness in NJ. And we are a "hotspot". If we don't open, there will nothing left worth living for. The country has to open to achieve immunity anyway since there is no guarantee of a vaccine. As of yesterday, 48% of all cases are in three states: NY, NJ and Mass. In other areas ... open so we learn how to deal with flare ups and the next virus. Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOS:96B2P Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 30 minutes ago, Erwin said: "Black Crows" is quite compelling re life as a regular Joe recruit in the Islamic State. Thanks, when we're done with Fauda we'll give Black Crows a look. Thirty episodes in the first season! That's like two or three seasons for many shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) 57 minutes ago, kevinkin said: Look, bringing your mom into the conversation while calling me an ignorant fool was inappropriate and in poor form in any debate. Anecdotal evidence is fine. But it's not a good idea attaching it to family since it takes all the air out of the discussion. Especially in a sensitive topic like this one. How can someone challenge evidence if it come from a guy's mother? Here is what I said BTW: "we don't know anyone infected by this virus. We know hundreds who are affected". The cure has been far worse than the illness in NJ. And we are a "hotspot". If we don't open, there will nothing left worth living for. The country has to open to achieve immunity anyway since there is no guarantee of a vaccine. As of yesterday, 48% of all cases are in three states: NY, NJ and Mass. In other areas ... open so we learn how to deal with flare ups and the next virus. Kevin So you starting by calling us all pussies and fools was okay? That was not inappropriate or poor form? The cure has been far worse than the illness? How do you calculate that and what will the cost be without social distancing? That is a great media quote line, but is it actually true? What data supports that view? Yes the economy is getting hit hard. I was hoping to retire next year and now I have no idea. However if the infection and hospitalization rate is not managed correctly, then what happens? The economy tanks anyway, but now the death rate climbs as healthcare workers and their resources are completely overwhelmed. That doesn’t sound like a plan to me. I am neither an economist nor an expert on the health care community. I just have to trust the leaders of our health care community and the Presidents head of infectious diseases and his primary spokesperson is saying social distancing is critical. Edited April 20, 2020 by sburke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Never called anyone a fool but questioned the country's backbone. It's not like I am the first to say we are collectively softer than our parent's generation. As of the last count there are over 700,000 healthy people unemployed in NJ with, as of yesterday, a little over 4000 KIA. Most KIA were not in good health. It's unknown how many died from the China virus or with it in their systems. That will take months to figure out. There are claims that hospitals are cooking the books for additional funding. It is also not known if social distancing is having any impact. It might actually extend the agony for the unemployed since we are delaying the immunity we would naturally obtain. It does not look like the health care system was overwhelmed even in NY state or the city. So we upended the lives of >700,000 people (not even counting the kids) to err on the side of caution to save an unknowable number of people. What do we say to the unemployed in states with <1000 KIA? When the after action report comes in, I am pretty sure we will conclude this was an overreaction and were ways to stop the spread without destroying so many lives. So yes, I believe the cure will be determined to have been worse. But will government say so? Maybe not to cover themselves. BTW I was in a foul mood last night and I got the discussion off to a foul start. For that I am sorry. Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, MOS:96B2P said: Thirty episodes in the first season! They are only 30 minute episodes, Alhamdulillah! They probably all blow themselves up in suicide bombings (or get KIA by drone strikes) by the end making a 2nd season challenging. Re Covid, am impressed that Trump has the stamina to keep up briefings 7 days a week. Have noticed that his mostly younger advisors have to rotate their attendance to give themselves a day off every now and then. After this is all over it will be interesting to compare overall death stats for the January-? period as far fewer fatal road accidents are happening, and presumably there are many other infectious diseases that could be fatal that are not being caught due to no travel. Edited April 20, 2020 by Erwin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Regardless of where anyone sits in this discussion, we are all under stress. No worries. I am not going to pretend I have any answers. The only thing I do know is I am profoundly ignorant about how to fight a pandemic and the potential cost if you do it wrong. I have to accept that the leading people in the field know what they are talking about and the briefings from the White House by the leading US scientist on it are better info than me guessing. Yes the toll on the economy is enormous. Is the human cost of that something that needs to be considered? Absolutely. Is it better or worse with us under lockdown, I don’t know and I don’t think we will be able to answer that question for quite some time. Do I even remotely believe the numbers China has given? Absolutely not. Does that affect my trust in what the US and world medical community are telling me? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wicky Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 kevinkin So you want to instigate a state policy of Senicide / wipe out vulnerable by remaining passive and letting virus freely spread? Potentially killing millions - as not all then could access overwhelmed hospitals and would simply die at home or on the streets including a greater proportion of folk aged under 60... Have you discussed this with your older family members? How old is Trump 73 - 74 years old? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Yikes and here comes the guy with a bucket of gasoline. bad Wicky! bad! go sit down! but now that you bring it up I have to say it is kind of sick but the hashtag boomer remover had me cracking up for days. And I am a boomer Freakin smart ass young people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 39 minutes ago, Wicky said: So you want to instigate a state policy of Senicide / wipe out vulnerable by remaining passive and letting virus freely spread? I never said that. What I was forwarding is that it will probably be determined that closing the country was an overreaction and it would have been easier and more efficacious to protect the vulnerable and let the economy hum along like we have in the past when severe flu hits. Instead of closing everything at once and then enforcing masks and distance. How about the reverse order? See if distance works. Then masks while allowing everyone to work. Just about ever retail outlet or restaurant I know would gladly comply with a 50% capacity order. As of yesterday, 48% of the cases are in 3 Northeast States. NY NJ and Mass. Why should the rest of the country suffer because of several hot spots? For most of the US, this is a bad flu season. I live in a hot spot and live without any fear. If society wants to keep me off the golf course and out of parks and sheltering for the good of my fellow citizens 3000 miles away in Washington - I will do my part. Even though it's insane. There should be a Hippocratic Oath at all levels of government i.e. do no harm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z1812 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, kevinkin said: Never called anyone a fool but questioned the country's backbone. It's not like I am the first to say we are collectively softer than our parent's generation. As of the last count there are over 700,000 healthy people unemployed in NJ with, as of yesterday, a little over 4000 KIA. Most KIA were not in good health. It's unknown how many died from the China virus or with it in their systems. That will take months to figure out. There are claims that hospitals are cooking the books for additional funding. It is also not known if social distancing is having any impact. It might actually extend the agony for the unemployed since we are delaying the immunity we would naturally obtain. It does not look like the health care system was overwhelmed even in NY state or the city. So we upended the lives of >700,000 people (not even counting the kids) to err on the side of caution to save an unknowable number of people. What do we say to the unemployed in states with <1000 KIA? When the after action report comes in, I am pretty sure we will conclude this was an overreaction and were ways to stop the spread without destroying so many lives. So yes, I believe the cure will be determined to have been worse. But will government say so? Maybe not to cover themselves. BTW I was in a foul mood last night and I got the discussion off to a foul start. For that I am sorry. Kevin When this Pandemic is under control, I am sure there will be a lot of criticism, as well as much praise for the way it was handled. We would do well to acknowledge that without the measures taken we can never know how bad it might have been. Edited April 20, 2020 by z1812 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 +1 Everyone has been making heroic efforts. I can't even begin to comprehend how Mike Pence survives the pressure of standing around like a vertical car crash dummy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wicky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, kevinkin said: See if distance works. Then masks while allowing everyone to work Any workplace like a pork processing plant or an aircraft carrier? In the first few weeks when you've got to get on top of any spread were there enough masks for all the population - no - there was barely sufficient for healthcare staff. Any place can turn into a hot spot very quickly it only takes one person in the space of a couple or three days to set off a cascade of cases Places like Russia and Sweden that followed your initial course of action are now counting the cost of delayed action. Maybe in a month or 3 can it be considered to begin lifting measures but one has to be very wary of it jumping right back and spreading again up due to the infecticious nature of the virus. Edited April 21, 2020 by Wicky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wicky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ "Social distancing isn’t a new idea—it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked. ...studies reached another important conclusion: That relaxing intervention measures too early could cause an otherwise stabilized city to relapse. St. Louis, for example, was so emboldened by its low death rate that the city lifted restrictions on public gatherings less than two months after the outbreak began. A rash of new cases soon followed. Of the cities that kept interventions in place, none experienced a second wave of high death rates." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 Those are useful data. Thanks. Some very hard decisions coming re opening up the nation so the west can deal with China vs the risks of a 2nd wave. A second wave is definitely a major concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sublime Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 18 hours ago, kevinkin said: Never called anyone a fool but questioned the country's backbone. It's not like I am the first to say we are collectively softer than our parent's generation. As of the last count there are over 700,000 healthy people unemployed in NJ with, as of yesterday, a little over 4000 KIA. Most KIA were not in good health. It's unknown how many died from the China virus or with it in their systems. That will take months to figure out. There are claims that hospitals are cooking the books for additional funding. It is also not known if social distancing is having any impact. It might actually extend the agony for the unemployed since we are delaying the immunity we would naturally obtain. It does not look like the health care system was overwhelmed even in NY state or the city. So we upended the lives of >700,000 people (not even counting the kids) to err on the side of caution to save an unknowable number of people. What do we say to the unemployed in states with <1000 KIA? When the after action report comes in, I am pretty sure we will conclude this was an overreaction and were ways to stop the spread without destroying so many lives. So yes, I believe the cure will be determined to have been worse. But will government say so? Maybe not to cover themselves. BTW I was in a foul mood last night and I got the discussion off to a foul start. For that I am sorry. Kevin You know theres literal records of Socrates bitching about the younger generation. every goddamn generation does it. and guess what? every generation has stood up. name a US generation that hasnt yet. Im sick to death of this continual (and always seemingly from GOP boomer types) snow flake talk when their demigod is the biggest snowflake of all time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Hi KevinKin, I kinda of get some of your concerns about are we over reacting, from my reading and understanding I don't think we are but it is a valid question to ask and understand. The ONS in the UK are trying to get to grips with this but as we are still seeing deaths well above normal it is a moving target. Have a look at this bit the BBC has pulled together. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654 Scroll down to see UK death rates in 2015 vs figures this year. These are like for like so a good comparison for UK figures. So depending on when you compare at one point it was ohh well just like 2015 flu, but we have exceeded that and we are still not done! The article does explore if we are just bringing forward deaths that would have happened in the near future. For me I think I will be fine if I catch it, but would it be fair that I contributed to deaths by passing it on to others? I am trying to find a clip I saw on a BBC program that showed what Wicky is trying to show about the R0 rate a what difference a slight increase makes. It was basically white and red dots bouncing around in a box to represent people and red dots infected, white not. It was astonishing to see the rate of infection on the clip, wish I could find it... We are being asked to endure comparatively a short period of isolation to save someone else's life, I can live with that. I do worry about the economic impact but I hope that will bounce back especially with the extra people alive to be part of that recovery. Just my take on it and hope you and everyone has better days ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, Sublime said: You know theres literal records of Socrates bitching about the younger generation. every goddamn generation does it. and guess what? every generation has stood up. name a US generation that hasnt yet. Im sick to death of this continual (and always seemingly from GOP boomer types) snow flake talk when their demigod is the biggest snowflake of all time Hmmm just a thought about this debate that seems to be hitting the USA at the moment... While I don't use the term "snow flake" as it is effectively just name calling to paint a group as "worthless" I do wonder if those complaining about how they are suffering because of their perceived "loss of liberty" could be the snow flakes as they are not prepared to suffer a bit of hardship to save lives? If this is a war surely our leaders would be saying "man up" so we save people from death? Of course it seems to have been twisted that those enduring the hardship by staying at home are anti American when nothing is further from the truth. They are staying at home because they love their country and are prepared to pay the price for lives.. IMO a truly noble act... Just my 2p YMMV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
37mm Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just to remind everyone that no matter the various opinions/theories on how best to cope with the current pandemic... all of the really key decisions about it were made back in January & February. In the ancient days of 2006, it was known what those decisions had to be... "Country-based contingency plans for the next influenza A pandemic should there- fore largely focus resources on facilitating treatment, monitoring and control of new cases at home. Once case numbers exceed a few hundred in source areas, only rapidly implemented and almost total restriction of international travel can prevent the export of cases and the triggering of new epidemics in unaffected areas. The efforts of the WHO and the international community should be targeted at bringing any emerging influenza epidemic under control as rapidly as possible in the country in which the new strain first emerges. Success in this task is likely to be the dominant factor in restricting international spread." The key question for those who survive this Pandemic (& the wrecked economy it will bring) is why are the people of 2020 seemingly less rational than the people of 2006*? * Not counting North Korea who closed their borders before the Wuhan lockdown(!). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Good point 37mm, history repeats as we often fail to learn from the past. For example Jeremy Hunt was in charge of health service during the Cygnus simulation and had seen the reports, he was removed by Boris and replaced. What might have been the outcome if he was getting the Cobra info? He was certainly on TV asking the government to change course when the herd immunity was being followed. He of course has to answer why emergency stocks and lessons learnt from Cygnus were not implemented but he was certainly trying to get government to change approach in the early days.... Found something similar to what I saw on the TV showing spread graphically https://reactfordataviz.com/articles/corona-simulation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, 37mm said: The key question for those who survive this Pandemic (& the wrecked economy it will bring) is why are the people of 2020 seemingly less rational than the people of 2006*? * Not counting North Korea who closed their borders before the Wuhan lockdown(!). Not really different than the climate change debate. We have known for decades it is a reality. TheN big oil started flooding lobbyist and politician pockets with cash and the denial movement kicked off. Denial was never about science but rather corporate interest. the current problem is based in the whole “fake news” phenomena which again is nothing more than propaganda to be able to deflect. It has inevitably taken on a life of its own in that folks now live in their own bubble where “belief” trumps research. While it is mostly something that many view as a Trump/conservative supporter issue (in large part based on climate debate) I personally think you can’t paint it quite that way. I think we all tend to bias these days. as to the snowflake expression. I really detest it. Part of what defines us as human is empathy and the use of that expression by any side seems to be the very denial of the best part of our human selves. Edited April 21, 2020 by sburke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sublime Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 6 hours ago, Holien said: Hmmm just a thought about this debate that seems to be hitting the USA at the moment... While I don't use the term "snow flake" as it is effectively just name calling to paint a group as "worthless" I do wonder if those complaining about how they are suffering because of their perceived "loss of liberty" could be the snow flakes as they are not prepared to suffer a bit of hardship to save lives? If this is a war surely our leaders would be saying "man up" so we save people from death? Of course it seems to have been twisted that those enduring the hardship by staying at home are anti American when nothing is further from the truth. They are staying at home because they love their country and are prepared to pay the price for lives.. IMO a truly noble act... Just my 2p YMMV Oh when I mean the term snowflake Im talking about this aggressive political movement in the US that was printing shirts that said things like F your feelings trump - pence etc but play the ultimate victim on almost every subject and all trump does is act aggrieved and harmed unless hes constantly feted and praised. look at his reaction to a reporter calling him on his video 'tribute' to himself that he claimed was for 'all the american heroes' it was really just the gop self fellating itself and the journalist rightly called trump on it who harrumphed. my point is this guy who will say 'oh why would you ask such a nasty question' when a reporter asks him about his failings, has no problem with people shouting 'shoot them!'' in response to his question about what should be done with illegals (he laughed actually, pensacola rally) and Ive noted his supporters do the same. They all hate hand outs, but I bet theyre all glad to receive the stimulus check eh? As far as the debate and saying its un american to quarantine those people are just damned fools. that had no reflection on my mention of the term snowflake and whatnot. The people protesting or not able to self quarantine are being incredibly selfish and essentially un american. The thing is of course, I consider many of trumps moves and actions inherently anti american and thereby his supporters as well. but enough about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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