Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Okay confession am sitting in hotel bar killing time on business trip. Watching “synchronized karate” on tv.  Who knew......

so the competitor up has as likes: Traveling in Japan and anime. Bucket list getting his picture taken with a kangaroo.   Getting beat up by an anime freak is way down on my bucket list. 

Promotional advertiser Paul Mitchell.... really?  I need another drink. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Yeah well I am convinced humanity is well past the survival curve, we just don’t know it yet. I suspect we are about now in the “oops” phase.

 

E2DD9031-A366-4EF7-81EE-09934B256B5E.thumb.jpeg.6cce878de07e6847b120970ba750dcb0.jpeg

Edited by sburke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I suspect if we were to search Venus thoroughly, we might find the above engraved on the hardest stone on the planet!  ;)

PS- IMHO Elon Musk isn't really a space entrepreneur.....He's just planning his getaway!   :P

Edited by Sgt.Squarehead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Sgt.Squarehead said:

I suspect if we were to search Venus thoroughly, we might find the above engraved on the hardest stone on the planet!  ;)

Lol that just made my day. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't anyone remember how oil was going to run out by 2020 and that was the global catastrophic crisis of the 70's and 80's?  All the experts were trotted out with their charts and "facts and figures" to prove this beyond any doubt.  I certainly bought into this fear, and I remember how the few voices who raised doubts and questions about this obvious and self-evident "crisis" were made pariahs.  Now it's been forgotten and we realize it was just a way of scaring the population into accepting ridiculous prices and big corps making money off the fear.  Today we are awash with oil, but prices haven't gone down.

My concern is that 20 years from now climate change will be forgotten and there will be another crisis.  My prediction is scarcity of water crisis and once again it will be a boondoggle to make us pay ridiculous prices for water.  Am in UK right now where it rains a lot.  And the population is being told that there's a water shortage and they have to conserve.  The only shortage I see is in vision - like the govt doesn't want to spend money building more reservoirs and desalination plants.  It's easier for them to tell the population to "tighten their belts". 

The latest crisis is the new finding that "obesity is the bigger cause of cancer than smoking".  Presumably the govt wants people to stop eating (reduce food imports).

I was born just as post war rationing came to an end.  I remember shortages.  My sense is that all the focus on conservation etc is a backdoor modern version of rationing.  Not cos there is a shortage, but because the bottom 90% has become relatively poor in the last couple of decades of govt and financial mismanagement/fraud, and so the majority of folks can barely afford the basics of life today.  So, to cover that scandal up, and stop the peasants revolting, we experience constant govt efforts to make everyone "conserve" which puts a positive spin on the not to be mentioned "third rail" fact that most people cannot afford to live in the comfortable way they could 20+ years ago due to global financial fraud.

Phew...  that was fun.  Rant over...  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Erwin said:

Doesn't anyone remember how oil was going to run out by 2020 and that was the global catastrophic crisis of the 70's and 80's?  All the experts were trotted out with their charts and "facts and figures" to prove this beyond any doubt.  I certainly bought into this fear, and I remember how the few voices who raised doubts and questions about this obvious and self-evident "crisis" were made pariahs.  Now it's been forgotten and we realize it was just a way of scaring the population into accepting ridiculous prices and big corps making money off the fear.  Today we are awash with oil, but prices haven't gone down.

Those are not really that similar. The known oil reserves are being used up. That is the basis of the fear that was being pushed. Eventually we will run low on oil. As my Econ proff pointed out during the "we are going to run out of copper" scare of the 80s the markets address this kind of stuff. Back to the copper example - he was spot on. The amount of copper being mined was more than we were finding new possible mine locations. As that fact sank in, cooper started getting more and more expensive. So, people started looking for different ways to solve the problems we were using cooper for. Now water pipes in new constrution are nearly all *not* copper. Wiring still is - because alternatives to piping water that were not copper are now cheaper but we still need copper for wiring. I have not heard anyone say we are going to run out of copper any time soon.

Oil is the same if we do one day get close to running out it will get more and more expensive and we will be forced to find alternatives. Oil has had a reprieve since new sources have been found (fraking, oil sands). This is the other side effect of higher prices - it makes sources that a decade ago were to expensive to mine viable.

The use of resources like oil and copper and anything else is managed by our economic markets. Turns out predicting markets is hard and people don't do a good job of it.

Climate change is not in the same situation. That work is based on long term trends and the scientific method (yes with hypotheses having been tested etc.). We know it is happening, we know we caused it. About the only thing I'll grant you is that predictions might be off. However when I say off I mean instead of an overall average x deg C byn Y year we might get x+2 in Y-10 or it could be x-2 in Y+10. It will however *not* turn out to be much a do about nothing. Predicting anything precisely is difficult. Knowing what direction we are headed is stone cold obvious.

 

7 hours ago, Erwin said:

My concern is that 20 years from now climate change will be forgotten and there will be another crisis.

My concern is that 20 years from now less of the earth is comfortable for us to live on and grow things on and the disruption in global politics and economics will make the lives of my kids unrecognizable from mine. Honestly I hope that the predictions are off and we have more run way - not because it's not real but because that will give my kids generation time to make things better for their kids.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, IanL said:

My concern is that 20 years from now less of the earth is comfortable for us to live on and grow things on and the disruption in global politics and economics will make the lives of my kids unrecognizable from mine. Honestly I hope that the predictions are off and we have more run way - not because it's not real but because that will give my kids generation time to make things better for their kids.

I don't think anyone would disagree with that.  But, from what I see around me on a daily basis is that the combination of deteriorating economic conditions for the vast majority of people, plus the deteriorating social capabilities of so many (mostly under 40's) people thanks to social media and people walking around with their noses and thumbs up their smart phones is already destroying social cohesion and creating serious problems for our lives far sooner than climate change.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The discovery of Ozone depletion and its causes is an example of the "Oops" line in Sburkes intricate graph. That was discovered just in time. Trying to convince a world of politicians this has to be stopped now was another remarkable feat in itself. Crops and healthy soil don't exist after years of UV radiation.  umm, Good catch guys

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That post was a joke, right?  I mean, no one actually could believe things that confused or ridiculously, provably, demonstrably false?  Right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Just a quick remark to the oil discussion: The early estimates were, of course, based on the (estimated) availability of crude oil at the time. And, of course, on an availability at reasonable effort and reasonable prices.

Those pre-conditions indeed seem to „expire“.  I would assume, there is a good reason , why the Gulf States try to diversify their industry since 20 years.

As for the „reasonable effort“: Nowadays, it is affordable to  „squeez“ oil from sand and plant oil platforms ever further away from the main land. Sounds like the base line has been adjusted a little, to cope with a changed reality.

Edited by StieliAlpha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

Sometimes Armageddon can look like a really viable option, can't it?  :P

You mean that Bruce Willis movie?

DON'T WANNA CLOSE MY EYEEEEESSSS DON'T WANNA FALL ASSLEEEEEEEP

It's as if Aerosmith was paid to wake up the audience, after that snooze fest. As far as I'm concerned, it's never an option.

15 minutes ago, Erwin said:

I don't think anyone would disagree with that.  But, from what I see around me on a daily basis is that the combination of deteriorating economic conditions for the vast majority of people, plus the deteriorating social capabilities of so many (mostly under 40's) people thanks to social media and people walking around with their noses and thumbs up their smart phones is already destroying social cohesion and creating serious problems for our lives far sooner than climate change.

I can only imagine how upset some people when literacy was invented. Darn kids writing things down, without memorizing them. How're people supposed to function, if they can't remember all of Homer's Odyssey?

Everything changes with time, and this isn't the first time in history humans dealt with climate change. Adapting to changing environment, society and resources is inescapable. On the bright side, global standards of living and life expectancy are higher than ever, and climbing. Change isn't always bad.

People like to romanticize fatalism, because it makes the present seem more grandiose. Good way to grab an audience's attention. Either that, or you can put Steve Buscemi in it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree w StieliAlpha.  What data showed was that 'easy to get' oil production would not keep up w demand.  What has happened is that 'hard to get' oil has become less hard to get through advances in technology.

Also, there's lots of folklore saying that some big problems disappeared because the problems never existed -- when in fact the problems were addressed.  Y2K was a problem, but everyone fixed their codes beforehand.  Acid rain was a real problem, but we moved to low sulphur coal or added scrubbers to the exhaust to reduce sulpherous emissions.  Ozone depletion was real, but we reduced HFC use and it's been helping.  These problems weren't hoaxes like Fox news would have us believe.  They were real and we did something about them, like was done w DDT, lead in gasoline, etc

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

We're definitely already in the "****"-range of the chart when it comes to climate change. Many initated reports and analyses of various indicators of change is that things are going much faster than feared. So the question will rather be are we ****ed or are we ****ED!!!

Another thing that is close to the "****ed" stage that few are talking about is multi resistant bacteria and that we are running out of good antibiotics. That will in time cause enourmous problems and what today is routine surgery will be life threatening.

Ok, now I'll stop my profanities and doom and gloom for a while.

Edit: how about that, my post was self-censored, Big Brother Steve is watching ;)

Edited by rocketman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Erwin said:

Doesn't anyone remember how oil was going to run out by 2020 and that was the global catastrophic crisis of the 70's and 80's? 

.....

Phew...  that was fun.  Rant over...  

 

The ones in power asking the ones with no power to change the world, or else, over and over again. Well, one upside is that common people are now more environmentally minded. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, danfrodo said:

That post was a joke, right?  I mean, no one actually could believe things that confused or ridiculously, provably, demonstrably false?  Right?

Can't fool you. UV(B) mmm good... If you are a cannabis plant. Not soooo good for growing corn and soybean, and things you might want to eat. Ozone depletion occurred at an exponential rate, literally that is. I am not sure what you were referring to as false exactly, But a big hole in the ozone over major crop belts would have been a really bad thing if left undiscovered. Its been slowed but still growing. Major polluters now are hospitals, anything that uses anesthetic type gases, fluranes N2O. But that is changing now too. Its only because of some scientists in the late 70's that we dodged that bullet.

Edited by nik mond

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, nik mond said:

Can't fool you. UV(B) mmm good... If you are a cannabis plant. Not soooo good for growing corn and soybean, and things you might want to eat. Ozone depletion occurred at an exponential rate, literally that is. I am not sure what you were referring to as false exactly, But a big hole in the ozone over major crop belts would have been a really bad thing if left undiscovered. Its been slowed but still growing. Major polluters now are hospitals, anything that uses anesthetic type gases, fluranes N2O. But that is changing now too. Its only because of some scientists in the late 70's that we dodged that bullet.

Hey Nik Mond, I was referring to earlier post, not yours :)  I agreed w yours.  I shoulda quoted the intended one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, sburke said:

Heh what I get for posting while bored in a bar. 

Yep, looks like you hit a button.

Otherwise: Reminds to my after work Wednesday evening pub visits (unfortunately, I quit a very long time ago): Go there, have a beer or two and wait what happens. I had some extremely good conversations back then.😎

Edited by StieliAlpha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, sburke said:

Heh what I get for posting while bored in a bar. 

Let's get back to the issues - how many beers did you have, how many oxygen thieves did you meet and how did this impact the planet?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 7/22/2019 at 8:25 AM, Erwin said:

Am in UK right now where it rains a lot.  And the population is being told that there's a water shortage and they have to conserve.

https://hosepipeban.org.uk/hosepipe-ban-current-situation/

Best buy some of Peckham's finest Spring Water as a momento of your visit before stocks run out 😉 

https://www.delboysonlineshop.com/product/bottle-peckham-spring-water/

s-l500.jpg

Edited by Wicky

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...